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MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS
HOU (-150) vs LOS 3* MLB BEST BET of the DAY
CWS (-150) vs CLE 2* ML WAGER
OAK (+125vs ANH 2* ML WAGER
COL / SDP Over 9.5 1* TOTAL
NYY / 967 Under 10* TOTAL *
2* AFL PLAYOFFS "HEAVY HITTER" :
OVER 118.5 GRP/ARZ (2*)
3* AFL PLAYOFFS BEST BET of the DAY
GRAND RAPIDS +1.5
Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins - Tigers (Galarraga/Perkins) -113 | Unit Value: 2
Note: We have 2 very hot teams tonight in the Twin Cities but a decided advantage tonight for the visitors as they face a less than average lefty. Detroit has won 17 of 21 but more importantly, they have beat southpaws 41 of the last 59 times. That does include Zito, Wolf and Francis most recently and in those game, the Tigers scored 19 times. Detroit is averaging 41 points higher on the road verses Southpaws, and have maintained a +300 Batting average verses them over the last 22 games. Galarraga has far superior pitching numbers including one of the best Innings/Hits Ratios in either league. He is also throwing well of late with 2 No Runs appearances in his last 3. He is coming off a sub-par performance verses St Louis and we have seen him comeback from those with a solid outing 3 out of 3 times. We do not have the better Pen for this contest, but we do have the advantage over the first 2/3 of the game and we have that in a big way. I will lay the small number.
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks - Brewers (Bush/Davis) 114 | Unit Value: 2
Note: This is not going to be a popular play today but the fact is, the Brewers love to face lefties. They hit them 32 points higher when on the road and they love to hit Davis. The lefthander, who spent three plus seasons with the Brewers from 2003 to 2006, is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA in three starts against the Brewers since being traded to Arizona before the 2007 season. The Brew Crew know this guy very well and they will plate some runs tonight. Arizona is having trouble plating anything batting right at the .200 mark over the last 10 games and scoring just 24 runs during this stretch. They will face a thrower that has found his groove. Bush has put together two of his best starts of the year in notching back to back victories for the first time since July 6 and 16 of last year. After limiting Toronto to one run and two hits in eight innings of an 8 to 7 win June 19, the right-hander gave up one run and four hits in seven innings of a 4-3 win over Atlanta on Tuesday. He is getting ahead on the count now after some adjustments with his pitching coach. His work verses AZ has been very good, posting a 3.55 ERA in four starts. The DBacks are doing a lot of things wrong right now after a strong start to the year and that includes their Pen which is failing miserably of late. We have some great value here tonight and a good situation for the visitors in many respects.
MLB: New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals - Mets (Maine/Lohse) -102 | Unit Value: 2
Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS
nick bookiekiller parsons
CLE (+138) vs CWS
Indians Coming off of a sweep of their hated cross-town rivals, the Cubs, there is simply no way for the White Sox to avoid being a little flat tonight. Last nights 5-1 win over the Cubs capped a three game sweep for the Sox and it was a big revenge sweep too as the ChiSox had lost all three games at Wrigley Field earlier in the month. Now there is no time to rest for the Sox as the Indians come to town. Cleveland is off of back to back losses but previously they had won two straight and outscored their opponents 10-1 in those two victories. Jeremy Sowers gets the start for the Indians tonight and hes coming off of a tough, hard-luck loss as he pitched quite well in his most recent start but he was out-dueled by Barry Zito of the Giants. Sowers shows an 0-3 record in the books so far this season but he has allowed just three earned runs in four of his six starts this season. A big part of the issue is that, other than one nine run explosion, the Indians just havent given him much run support as theyve tallied just 13 runs in the other five starts Sowers has made this season. Look for this lack of run support to quickly turn around tonight as Cleveland faces Gavin Floyd of the White Sox. The ChiSox right-hander had produced very impressive numbers at home through early June but he has since regressed. It was quite likely that Floyd was not going to be able to maintain his torrid pace at home. That said, it should come as no surprise that, even though two of his last three starts have been at U.S. Cellular Field, Floyd has allowed 16 runs (9 earned) on 16 hits (5 homers) in his last three starts! Floyd got the win, but was hit quite hard, in his lone start versus Cleveland this season. As for Sowers, he allowed just one hit in six innings but got a no-decision in his lone career start against the White Sox. Behind a strong start from Sowers, and more struggles for Floyd, the Indians get the upset win in this match-up!
Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS
4-Unit Play. Take #958 Houston (-145) over Los Angeles Dodgers (8 p.m., Monday, June 30)
The Dodgers looked like trash over the weekend against the Angels and now limp into Houston with a Triple-A lineup. They also didn’t bring their leadoff man, Juan Pierre, on the trip so they’re down another outfielder. Houston played at a high level over the weekend while taking down the Red Sox and this streaky team should remain on a high note. They smash left-handed pitching and although Eric Stults has been outstanding in his first two starts this year he’s coming off a 116-pitch CG. I like to fade pitchers off a CG and I think this is a great spot to pile on against the Dodgers.
2-Unit Play. Take #974 Chicago White Sox (-155) over Cleveland (8 p.m., Monday, June 30)
Hey, stay hot. The White Sox were sharp over the weekend at home against their rivals and with a sizeable pitching mismatch in their favor today I don’t see why they can’t keep it rolling. The Indians really are a disaster. Jeremy Sowers has an ERA of nearly 6.00 and has lost seven of his last 10 starts. The Sox are 37-17 at home and 13-4 in divisional games. Gavin Floyd likely has a bounceback start in him, as he’s been great at home and Chicago is 5-1 in his last six outings.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #976 Los Angeles Angels (-130) over Oakland (10 p.m., Monday, June 30)
I still see the Angels as an automatic play against left-handed pitchers. They are 16-5 overall against southpaws and 8-2 at home against a lefty starter. After a fantastic start, Greg Smith has come down a couple notches over the last month. He’s had an ERA of 6.00 in June while losing three of four starts.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #962 Arizona (-120) over Milwaukee (9:40 p.m., Monday, June 30)
Dave Bush is 7-21 on the road and 5-21 as a road underdog. Conversely, Doug Davis is 18-5 at home and 11-2 as a home favorite. The D-Backs are a disaster right now, but there’s no denying that they’ve been better at home and I don’t see a second sweep of the Snakes by the Brew Crew.
1-Unit Play. Take #954 Cincinnati (-145) over Pittsburgh (7 p.m., Monday, June 30)
Let’s buy low with Aaron Harang. The big righty has been a sinkhole for cash this year, but he’s still 11-4 in his career against the Pirates. His counterpart, Paul Maholm, is 1-4 with a 6.15 ERA on the road this year and is 0-2 with a 5.46 ERA in his career in Cincinnati. The Reds have won two of three series here and could be picking it up.
Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS
CIN / PIT Over 8.5
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
There's only ONE team in Major League BASEBALL that's 20 game or more over .500 in their O/U results for the 2008 season. And that's the PITTSBURGH PIRATES, who are the BEST 'Over' team in the league at 48-28 O/U on the year. That includes an 'unreal' 27-8 O/U in ALL road games. This is also a pretty high-scoring series, as the Reds and Pirates have gone 12-5-1 O/U in their last 18 games vs each other... including 6-1-1 O/U in the last 8 played IN Cincinnati (2-0-1 O/U THIS season).
PAUL MAHOLM's road starts in 2008 are highlighted by a very high ERA of 6.15 and opponent team batting average of .364 (and 71% OVER the Total). On a more recent note, Pittsburgh tends to score a lot of runs behind him in terms of offensive support. His last 6 starts have seen the Buccos average 7.2 runs per game. His career numbers "In THIS Park" are pretty over-whelming as well. In 5 starts dating back to the 2006 season, his ERA here is 7.07 with an OU record of 4-1 O/U. He's also 6-0-1 O/U in his last 7 starts vs losing teams... 4-1-1 O/U in Game One of a series... and 12-4 O/U vs fellow NL Central opponents.
AARON HARANG is not in typical Harang form. He's gotten ripped up in his last 2 starts... and in FIVE of his last 7 overall. ERA is 8.44 in his last two... and 7.58 dating back to late May. In 2008 NIGHT starts, his ERA is a full 2 runs HIGHER (5.53) compared to all day starts (3.51). He faced the Buccos once already in 2008, and allowed 6 earned runs (and 10 hits) in only 4 full innings pitched (ERA of 12.50). In 3 HOME starts vs Pittsburgh since the start of last season, his ERA is 6.88 (2-0-1 O/U record). He also 5-1 O/U off a team win... and 6-2-1 O/U at home vs losing teams.
With winds projected to be blowing OUT to right-center field in excess of 15+ MPH... we'll take a bite on the "OVER
Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Game: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Boston +136 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 5.4)
Ok, so the oddsmakers are now saying that Tampa Bay is for real, but let's not forget that so are the Red Sox. After slipping behind the Rays in the standings, we have to think the Sox will come into this series with a very focused mindest. Justin Masterson has given the Sox good outings in which he has yet to allow more than four runs and the Sox are 5-2 in his seven starts. James Shields has allowed four runs or more in four of his last 10 starts, and has failed to get out of the fourth inning in his last two appearances against the Sox this season, where he has pitched to a 21.20 ERA. The Sox always have value playing as a dog, and we like them in this spot.
Game: Cleveland at Chicago (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 9.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Due to injuries and team slumps, the Indians have been punchless this season. They have already amassed a total of 52 games played scoring four runs or less. Facing Gavin Floyd won't make it much easier as Floyd has allowed more than four runs in just two of 15 starts. The White Sox may be a little flat here after pounding the Cubs over the weekend. Jeremy Sowers has made six starts and just one produced runs higher than this total. UNDER is the way to go in this one.
Game: Toronto at Seattle (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Seattle +143 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.3)
Even bad teams get on a little roll. The Mariners come home feeling good about themselves as they have now won five of their last six. Bats that were sleeping for most of the year have now produced six runs per game in these last six. The road has been a struggle for the Jays where they have posted wins in just two of their last 11 and the offense continues to struggle as they have been shutout six times already this season. Roy Halladay hasn't been the cure either, as the Jays have dropped his last three starts and are just 9-8 on the season with him on the hill. Seattle shows signs of being much closer to the team everyone expected, and this is a good spot as a valued home dog.
Game: Toronto at Seattle (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Seattle +1.5 runs -119 (runline) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Roy Halladay is a good pitcher on a team with a bad offense and spotting a team +1.5 runs has not been working. Halladay has pitched in nine games this season where the Jays have won, but in five of those nine wins, there has been no margin for error as they won by just one run. That leaves the Jays at 4-13 in his 17 starts, playing to the -1.5 runline, so with the M's playing much better, they also get the call on the runline.
Game: Chicago at San Francisco (10:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on San Francisco +126 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.8)
You gotta wonder what happened to Barry Zito landing in the NL and the Giants losing his first nine starts. Things have been a bit different results wise, as they are now 4-3 in his last seven starts, and he has had success against this Cubs' lineup pitching to a 3.15 ERA over his career. The Giants have been a much better team than the way they started, as they have now actually played over .500 baseball for 40 games. For the first time all season the Cubs have gone into a slide. They have dropped four straight games and are just 4-8 over their last 12. It hasn't been the best of years for Ted Lilly either, as he pitches to an ERA of close to five. Good opportunity for the Giants to steal one at home.
Game: Chicago at San Francisco (10:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on San Francisco +1.5 runs -135 (runline) (risk 4 to win 3)
We also like the value on the San Francisco run line. Despite their overall success this season the Cubs are just 9-16 against the run line on the road after two straight road games. And, Zito is 28-18 at home to the run line vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5+ runs per game. With the Cubbies in the slide they are on, getting +1.5 on the home team at this small price is nice.
Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Washington Nationals vs. Florida Marlins
Pick: Florida Marlins 20 Unit MLB NL Bookie Buster of the Week
20 Units, Take Florida ML, This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Nationals are just 15-24 on the road this season. The Nationals are hitting just .225 as a team over their last 7 games while averaging just 3.0 rpg and Florida is 8-1 against the Nationals this season. I look for Ryan Tucker (2-2, 6.75) to bounce back with a strong outing after a couple of rocky starts since the Nationals have not faced him before. The Nationals are just 4-9 as a road dog of +125 to +150 this season and the Marlins are 32-20 in a game where the posted total is 9 to 9.5. Take the Marlins as my MLB NL Bookie Buster of the Week.
Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Grand Rampage vs. Arizona Rattlers
Pick: Grand Rapids, the OVER and Parlay
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Grand Rapids – AiS shows an 85% probability that Grand Rapids will win this game. I also like the OVER in this game as it is graded as a 3* MAJOR. This opens up an opportunity to also play an optional parlay that I would suggest not to exceed 2* units. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 51-27 for 65% over the past 10 seasons. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses. Arizona defense has not played well at all. Note that Arizona is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 38 points or more in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. This also projects to be a high scoring game as well with GR having a 92% probability of scoring 60 or more points. Note that GR is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they score 56 or more points in a game over the last 3 seasons. GR comes into this game coming off a road win placing them into a very strong role for the OVER. Note that GR is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games off a road win since 1996. GR is also 14-3 OVER (+10.7 Units) revenging a road loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons. Take GR for 7*, OVER for 3* and an optional 2* parlay of GR and the OVER.
Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS
My 15* play is on the Chi White Sox at 8:05 ET. The White Sox wrapped up interleague play with a three-game sweep of the Cubs (went 12-6 overall) and return to AL play with a 1 1/2-game lead in the Central over the red-hot Twins. Things are not going as well for the Indians, who won 96 regular season games last year and led the Red Sox 3-1 in the ALCS before losing three straight. The Indians finished interleague play only 6-12 and at 37-45, find themselves tied with the Royals for last-place in the AL Central, 9 1/2-games behind the White Sox. Not to make too many excuses but the Indians have two starting pitchers and three everyday players from last season's team on the DL. This three-game series in Chicago is the opening of an eight-game road trip which also include stops at Minnesota and Detroit, arguably MLB's hottest teams. The Indians haven't had much luck with the White Sox this year, as after winning the first two meetings of '08 with Chicago, the Indians have lost SIX of the last seven. Cleveland takes a 15-23 road record into Chicago, where the White Sox are 27-11 on the season, outscoring teams by more than two runs per game (5.85-3.77). The pitching matcup doesn't favor the Indians either, as lefty Jeremy Sowers will take on Chicago's Gavin Floyd. Sowers was 1-6 with a 6.42 ERA in 13 starts for Cleveland last year (team was 4-9) and opened this year in the minors. He was called up on April 26 for a start against the Yankees (sent back the next day) and then re-called on May 16 for a start at Cincy (sent back down the next day again!). Sowers has now been with the team since June 8 and this will be his fifth consecutive start, as part of the rotation. However, in his six starts this year (including those two earlier 'spot' starts), he's 0-3 (team is 2-4), allowing 47 hits in only 31.2 innings with a 5.97 ERA. In three road starts, his ERA is 6.60. That hardly matches up well with Floyd, who has been a major surprise. Floyd entered this season with a four-year mark of 8-10 with a 6.30 ERA, including going 1-5 with a 5.27 ERA for the White Sox last year (team was 3-7 in his 10 starts). So no one could have predicted his '08 performance, which has him 8-4 with a 3.39 ERA in 15 starts (team is 10-5). In his eight home starts this year, he's 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA (Indians are 7-1). Not much here that DOESN'T point to an easy Chicago win. Team Mismatch of the Week 15* Chi White Sox.
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-MLB
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the Arz D'backs at 9:40 ET. When Dave Bush took the mound on June 19 for a home start against the Blue Jays, he had made 12 previous starts in '08, going 2-7 with a 5.85 ERA (team was 4-8). So naturally, he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning. The bullpen almost blew the game for him (Brewers won just 8-7) but he got the win and followed that effort by winning his first road game of the season in his next start at Atlanta (7 IP / 4 hits / 1 ER). So what's going on? Bush, like the Brewers themselves, has had little success on the road the last three seasons. Bush had made six prior road starts before winning in Atlanta on June 24, going 0-5 with an 8.35 ERA (team was 0-6). That doesn't include a one-inning outing in relief at Houston on May 3 in which he also took a loss. Let's look at Bush's road mark since 2006. The Brewers were 4-13 (5.38 ERA) in his road starts in '06, 6-10 (6.14 ERA) in '07 and including his recent win in Atlanta this year, are 1-6 (7.09) in '08! Now I realize that the D'backs have "come back to the pack" after owning MLB's best record at the end of April (20-8) but it's still difficult to justify Bush being this small of a road underdog with his and Milwaukee's three-year road woes. Arizona is 21-33 since May 1 but the team's real struggles have come on the road, where the D'backs are 8-21, after losing three straight interleague series (seven of nine games) on their just completed trip (scored just 22 runs and hit .209 as a team). However, the team remains a solid 24-15 at home this year, averaging 5.24 RPG. In comparison, the Brewers are 19-24 on the road, allowing 5.09 RPG. The D'backs will send lefty Doug Davis to the mound, a former Brewer. Davis made two early April starts this year and then went on the DL while recovering from surgery for thyroid cancer. He returned on May 23 in Atlanta and was terrific, allowing five hits and one ER in seven innings of a win. He got 'rocked' in his next outing (home to SF) but has since made five more starts. Except for a poor effort at Pittsburgh on June 8 (3.2 IP / 7 hits / 5 ERs), he's pitched well, posting a 1.73 ERA in his other four starts (includes a six-inning effort at Milwaukee in which he allowed just one ER in a no decision). Milwaukee has done well vs lefties this year (15-8) but in away night games against them, is just 3-4, averaging 3.3 RPG. Let's also note that the Brewers are 9-16 in road night games this year, vs all pitchers. As for the D'backs, facing the right-handed Bush here at Chase Field should be good news, as the D'backs are 17-10 at home vs righties in '08, averaging 5.4 RPG. Oddsmaker's Error on the Arz D'backs.
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (73.3 percent winner!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET. Could anyone have predicted before the start of the '08 season that as Boston opens a three-game series at Tampa on the final day of June, the Red Sox would be trailing the Rays in the AL East? Considering Tampa has NEVER had a winning season in franchise history and that the Rays have finished in last-place in NINE of their 10 previous seasons, I think the safe answer is N-O! However, that's exactly the case, as the Rays sit at 49-32, while the defending champs are 50-34. These teams have already met nine times in '08, with the home team winning each game. What should change here? The Red Sox are 31-10 at Fenway but 19-24 on the road and that includes a 14-22 mark against right-handers. In James Shields, the Red Sox will face a right-hander who's been OUTSTANDING in his home park in '08. Shields has had plenty of road woes this year (6.09 ERA) but in eight home starts, he's allowed just 44 hits and 13 ERs in 58.2 innings for a 1.99 ERA (team is 7-1). That includes beating the Red Sox 3-0 here on April 27, with a complete game two-hitter. Tampa opened the season 4-7 at home but swept the Blue Jays in a three-game 'home' series at Disney's Wide World of Sport complex from April 22-24. The Rays then swept the Red Sox in a three-game series here at Tropicana Field, right after that. The Rays have been near-flawless at home since late-April, going 26-6 over their last 32 home games. The Red Sox will counter with rookie Justin Masterson, who will be making his eighth career start. He's done a solid job so far for Boston, as he'll take a 4-1 mark with a 3.43 ERA into this game. Boston is 5-2 in his seven starts, as Masterson has allowed just 29 hits in his 42 innings, an impressive number. However, he's facing a Tampa team which has become a juggernaut here at Tropicana Field and enters this game 22-8 vs right-handed starters at home in '08 (that's 73.3 percent!), including a 17-6 mark in night games. The Rays are no longer intimidated by anyone (especially at home) and showed they are going to be a "team to be reckoned with" this year, by winning FIVE of six games away from Tropicana this past week (including an impressive three-game sweep of the Marlins in Miami!). Las Vegas Insider on the TB Rays.
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