FRIDAY SERVICE PLAYS

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EZWINNERS

CFL

1 STAR: (406) WINNIPEG (-2.5) over Toronto
(Risking $110 to win $100)

I think the Argos will be a very good team this season, but they need some time. A lot of new faces for the Argos who have added Bethel Johnson and David Boston, but Toronto has looked a bit shaky in the pre-season and they will be facing a solid Bombers team that has not made many changes from last season. Winnipeg runs a pass happy offense and I look for them to find some holes in the revamped Toronto secondary. I like the Bombers to get it done here.


MLB

2 STAR: (904) CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-$112) over Chicago Cubs
(Listing contreras only) (Risking $224 to win $200)

2 STAR: (920) TEXAS (+$103) over Philadelphia
(Listing Gabbard and Myers) (Risking $200 to win $206)

2 STAR: (924) MINNESOTA (-$119) over Milwaukee
(Listing Blackburn and McClung) (Risking $238 to win $200)

1 STAR: (908) DETROIT (-$123) over Colorado
(Action) (Risking $123 to win $100)

1 STAR: (910) TORONTO (-$123) over Atlanta
(Listing McGowan only) (Risking $123 to win $100)

1 STAR: (918) HOUSTON (+$143) over Boston
(Action) (Risking $100 to win $143)

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Brandon Lovell

10* Royals

10* Phillies

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DAVE MALINSKY

Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers 4*

The Detroit Tigers finally have everyone except Brandon Inge healthy on offense. What had been a crippled bullpen is now back to full force. They are 14-4 in their last 18 games, and in three of those four losses were tied in the 6th inning or later. Yet we just saw one of the biggest line moves of the day in the opposite direction for this game, which opens the door wide for us. And we will step in.

We can understand part of the market attraction - Ubaldo Jimenez has better stuff than this 2-7/4.52 would indicate, and off of a solid home win over the Mets, there is the appearance of momentum. Remember that when we were bucking him early in the season it was because of a lack of polish (he needed more time at AAA, but the Rockies were out of options on him and could not send him back down), not a lack of stuff. But while he will indeed get better, there is still a mountain for not only him to overcome in this particular setting, but for the Rockies as a team. The last road win by Jimenez? How about August 15th against the Padres LY. Since then it has been an ugly 6.34 over 13 starts, with Colorado going 2-11 in those games. This season it has been an 0-8 team collar behind the 6.75 of Jimenez, who has averaged less than five innings per start in that span. And as a team the Rockies are an awful 12-28 on the road, part of that dismal N.L. West package that continues to not get fully appreciated in the marketplace (that division now stands an awful 39 games under .500 vs. outside opponents). There is no momentum at all to speak of, having just been swept by a combined 10 runs in three losses at Kansas City, which is not easy to do. When the Royals beat you by 10, despite having three fewer offensive innings to work with, you are in the wrong place at the wrong time against the surging Tigers.

Detroit shows all of the right signs offensively. Although each of the last two wins vs. St. Louis was a nail-biter on the scoreboard, note that the Tigers banged out 30 hits in those games. Gary Sheffield has returned from the DL with the kind of bat speed that was missing earlier in the season, and there could not have been a better Thursday sign than Curtis Granderson coming around with four hits, and scoring a pair of runs. This is a savvy lineup that can wear Jimenez down (26 walks in 38.2 road innings), and produce more than enough for us to trust Eddie Bonine in the early stages, and that recharged bullpen the rest of the way. Bonine may not have great stuff, but in winning nine games at AAA before being called up he showed excellent command of the strike zone, and with only two walks over 12.1 innings of his first two MLB starts, that form is continuing. He will not be anything special long-term, but brings enough at this newly-created discount.

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PlayByPlayInc.


CINCINNATI REDS +183

METS / YANKEES Game 1 Over 10

NEW YORK METS +139

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KBHOOPS

5 units Whitesox -120,

4 units NY Mets +145 game 1

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Robert Ferringo


1-Unit Play. Take Chicago White Sox (-110) over Chicago Cubs

2-Unit Play. Take L.A. Angels (-125) over L.A. Dodgers

1.5-Unit Play. Take Baltimore (-130) over Washington

1.5-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-120) over Milwaukee

1-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (-110) over Texas

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SPORTS KINGZ

TORONTO -135

SAN DIEGO -140

ANGELS -135

MINNESOTA -125

DETROIT -135

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Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections

5000* BASEBALL LATE STEAMER WINNER
Oakland w/Eveland -165 

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Erin Renning / ER Sports

Playmaker: Seattle / San Diego Under 7.5 

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Info Plays

3* on Toronto Blue Jays -132

Toronto is small favorite at home tonight and we’ll gladly take that value here.  The Blue Jays got out the bats tonight to punish Edinson Volquez in a 7-1 victory over the Reds.  They handed Volquez his worst outing of the season.  They’ll do the same to Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens tonight.  Atlanta is 11-27 in all road games this season.  All 3 of Jurrjen’s losses this season have come on the road.  Meanwhile, Toronto’s Dustin McGowan has been virtually un-hittable at home with a 4-1 record and a 1.73 ERA to boot.  This one is a no-brainer folks. Bet the Blue Jays at home.

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Black Widow Sports

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Texas Rangers rs
1* on Texas Rangers +104

Texas plays their best ball at home where they are scoring a ridiculous 6.0 runs per game this season. The Rangers are a lock to win tonight if you look at how badly Brett Myers has pitched on the road this season for Philadelphia. Myers is 0-6 with a 7.54 ERA in all road starts this year. The Phillies are 0-3 in Myers’ last 3 starts overall. The Phillies are just 4-12 in Myers’ 16 starts in 2008. Tell me how the Phillies can possibly be favored here? Take the Rangers on the Money Line.

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Chris James Sports 

LAA Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: LAA Angels   

We have a battle of the LA teams tonight where the Angels have dominated this series winning 9 of the last 11 meetings by a total score of 63-22 in those games. The Angels come in as one of the hotttest teams in baseball right now going 5-1 in the last 6 games overall and they are 10-2 in their last 12 road games. Angels are 25-10 in their last 35 interleague games. Tonight the Angels send Joe Saunders to the mound who has been lights out on the road recently going 6-1 in his last 7 starts. The Angels are a combined 26-10 in his last 36 starts overall! I will take that anyday. The Dodgers send Chan Ho Park to the mound who has done pretty well for the Dodgers this year. However, you can't win a game with pitching alone, atleast when your facing another top notch pitcher. The Dodgers are terrible vs left-handed starters going 0-9 in their last 9 games vs lefty's and Saunder will shut them down tonight making them 0-10 vs lefty's! I am backing the Angels in Game 1 of the Freeway Series! 

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STAN SHARP INTERLEAGUE ODDSMAKER ERROR

PHI -120 vs  TEX

Stan is Betting PHILADELPHIA today. Stan notes that Philadelphia pounds Lefties scoring almost 6 runs a game against them. Also this line is way too low based on Philadelphia's recent slump. This line should be 20-30 cents higher. Note that Myers threw a good game last time out and should repeat that performance here.

TAKE PHILADELPHIA  as STAN'S INTERLEAGUE ODDSMAKER ERROR BIG BET OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.

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WUNDERDOG

Game: Baltimore at Washington
Pick: 3 units on Washington +121

The Orioles inexplicably won two of three vs. the Cubs for a series win. The O's are playing well but well enough to be favored here on the road? Yes, the Nats have problems but they are at home and we like the pitching matchup. Odalis Perez has a respectable 4.09 overall ERA which is 2.56 at home! Facing him is Daniel Cabrera who not only has a higher overall ERA but he owns a sky-high 6.88 ERA over his last three starts. He is 3-12 the past decade in inter-league play. The Orioles are just 44-73 vs. LHP the past three seasons. We'll fade the Orioles here at a nice price.


Game: St. Louis at Kansas City
Pick: 3 units on Kansas City -124

We might sound like a broken record here but the Royals are a young team with a fragile ego. They have already proven that with losing streaks of seven and 12 games on the season. The flip side of that is what is currently happening as they have won five straight and 11 of 12. They now have won five straight for the third time this season. The ego is healthy now, and that's when they win games. Gil Meche closed April with nearly an 8 ERA, and he has since gotten it below 5 with some good outings and has his confidence restored. Joel Piniero has given the Cards more than we thought they were getting. Even with that said they have still dropped his last five starts due in part to a bullpen that has allowed three additional runs a game in those starts. Kansas City is playing with energy and Meche has been the $11 million pitcher they signed, so we take the Royals here.


Game: Milwaukee at Minnesota
Pick: 4 units on Minnesota -119

This game has our attention. We have a team that has run off nine-straight wins, playing at home and could move into first place in the AL Central with a win at less than 6-5 favorites? The Twins have won these nine games by a tally of 54-19 or four runs a game. No team has produced more than three runs a game against them, and Nick Blackburn has allowed one run or less in five of his seven starts at the Dome. Another footnote here is the Twins have been dominating the NL to the tune of 40-12 over their last 52 games, and they are 40-15 in their last 55 as a favorite in interleague play. The Brewers have struggled to a 5-12 mark in their last 17 against RHP. The Twins have yet to lose at home this year in interleague play, and have put 20 of their last 24 in the win column against the NL at home. Hot Twins sizzle to their 10th straight win.


Game: Seattle at San Diego
Pick: 3 units on Seattle +128

The Padres continue to swoon. They did make a 13-6 run, but have since given it all back and then some going 1-9 over their last 10. The problem continues to be their inability to score, as they reached 33 games on the season scoring three or less last night and have done so now for four straight games. The Mariners haven't given much to be excited about except for the fact they have now gone 6-6 in their last 12 on the road, which sure shows a lot of growth for a team that took 27 games to win their first seven on the road. These are two bad teams, but with one playing better than the other. With the Padres favored off a 1-9 run, and 19-42 outside of their 13-6 streak, the value is all over the Mariners here.


Game: Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 8 +100

The Angels’ Joe Saunders looks to become the first 12-game winner of the '08 season. Saunders has shown to be a quick starter as he was out of the gate last year with an ERA under three in late June that ended in the 4's. In '06 he posted an ERA of three over the first half of his 12 starts, but finished in the 4's. This year the ERA that was once a solid two, has risen to over three. Are we seeing the same career long trend? We think so. The Dodgers have established one thing that covers over 80 games. They have played OVER to the tune of 49-24-3 as a home dog. We like the value set from both sides here, and see this one going OVER the total.


WNBA

Atlanta at Connecticut
Pick: 5 units on Atlanta +15.5
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 159.5

Rumor has it the Atlanta Dream is considering a nickname change to the Atlanta Nightmares. The Dream has yet to earn a WNBA win this season through 13 games. To their credit they have been trying to make changes as only two players have started in 10 or more games, but nothing seems to matter. What can be said however is that this team still has lost in blowouts only twice on the road this season. For the Connecticut Sun, what is left to be had here? They beat this team by 32 points in the season opener, and are coming off their two biggest games of the season against Detroit back-to-back with a third coming soon. Those games were split, and lots of emotional energy discharged, so what kind of energy is put into a game like this? Sometimes value isn't determined by X's and O's, but by emotional game factors, and this is a favorable spot for the Dream to stay within this huge number. That also means if the intensity is down, the points are usually up. As it is the Dream allow 85 points per game, and if the Sun is napping as we expect the Dream has proven they can get in the 70s under normal circumstances as they have in eight of the 13 on the season and could be good for more here. We’ll take the Dream and the OVER in this one.

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Seabass

5 White Sox (Comp)
20 Tampa -1.5
20 Baltimore Over
20 Philadelphia Over
20 San Diego Under
20 Toronto

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JOHN RYAN

New York Dragons vs. Dallas Desperados (Arena)
Play: New York Dragons

Ai Simulator 10* graded play on New York – AiS shows an 86% probability that New York will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 43-17 for 72% ATS since 2002. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with an average offensive team averaging 5.9 to 6.6 YPP and is now facing a team with an average defense allowing 5.9 to 6.6 YPP. Here is a second system that has gone 33-11 ATS for 75% since 2002. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 17 points or less in the first half last game. Dallas is terrible roles for this game noting that they are just 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games versus poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games versus poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse after 8 or more games over the last 2 seasons. Dallas HC McClay is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games off a non-conference game as the coach of Dallas. Take New York.

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Vernon Croy 20 Unit MLB IL Total Smash of the Year

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Over

Both of these teams are hitting the ball very well this season and both of these pitchers have struggled overall. Texas is hitting .297 as a team at home while averaging 6 rpg and the Phillies are hitting .269 against left starters while averaging 5.9 rpg. The Rangers opponents are averaging 6.1 rpg against them at home this season and Kason Gabbard (2-3, 4.96 ERA) has struggled over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.46 while walking 11 batters over just 15.3 innings. Brett Myers (3-9, 5.51 ERA) has struggled on the road this season with an ERA of 7.54 allowing 67 hits over just 45.3 innings and I look for Texas to hit him hard tonight at home. Myers has given up 8 homeruns over his last 3 starts and the Rangers bullpen has struggled at home this season with an ERA of 5.60. Take the over as my MLB IL Total Smash of the Year as my huge 32-18 MLB Run continues

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Larry Ness

My Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:05 ET.

Bobby Cox hired Cito Gaston as his hitting coach way back in the early 80s, when Cox was managing the Toronto Blue Jays. In 1992, the Braves (managed by Cox) and the Blue Jays (now managed by Gaston) met in the World Series, with the Blue Jays winning. What goes around comes around. Cox has been a longtime stalwart in Atlanta and Gaston, fired years ago by the Blue Jays, is back as their manager. After the Blue Jays had dropped 13 of 17 games (May 31-June 19), manager John Gibbons was let go and Cito Gaston was brought in as the replacement. Toronto has been one of MLB's lowest scoring teams all season (4.18 RPG) and had really been struggling during its 17-game slide, averaging 3.76 per. Gaston knows something about hitting, so maybe he can help. After losing his first two games as Toronto's manager (1-0 and 6-3 at Pittsburgh), Gaston has led the Blue Jays to THREE wins in their last four games, as the team has scored 34 runs (8.5 per). Cox and the Braves visit Gaston and the Blue Jays tonight in the Rogers Centre, as interleague play concludes this weekend. The Braves are far from healthy, as outfielders Mark Kotsay and Matt Diaz are currently on the DL plus SS Yunel Escobar sat out the team's last game (Wednesday at Milwaukee) and his backup (Omar Infante) strained his hamstring during the game and had to leave the contest. Chipper Jones, who is batting .394, is not ready to return to third base but the Braves are hopeful he can DH this weekend. All in all, it's not a very bright picture for a team that owns MLB's biggest home/away dichotomy this year. The Braves are 28-14 (plus-$974) in Atlanta but a pathetic 11-27 (minus-$1,795). That's a difference of 30 games and $2,770 vs the moneyline, a discrepancy larger than any team in MLB in '08. Jair Jurrjens takes the mound for Atlanta and his blister problems look to be over. He struggled in late May, going a three-start stretch in which he allowed 10 ERs over 15 innings (6.00 ERA). He has not allowed an ER in either of his last two starts (13.2 innings) and with Atlanta winning both games, he's 7-2 with a 3.20 ERA on the season (team is 10-5). I like this guy but let's note that his ERA is 1 1/2 runs higher on the road (3.98) than it is at home (2.49), where he's 5-0 in eight starts (team is 8-0). Dustin McGowan goes for the Jays and after doing little in two seasons for Toronto, made 27 starts last year, going a respectable 12-10 with a 4.08 ERA (team was 13-14). He's gone 4-1 with a 4.21 ERA over his last six starts (team is 4-2), giving him a 6-5 mark with a 4.21 ERA on the season in 16 starts (7-9). However, one can't ignore the fact that he's been terrible on the road (2-4 with a 6.19 ERA in 10 starts / team is 3-7), while pitching extremely well here in Toronto (4-1 with a 1.73 ERA in six starts / team is 4-2). That's no surprise as the Blue Jays went 9-4 (3.27 ERA) in his home starts last year, giving Toronto a two-year 13-6 mark in his home starts. Las Vegas Insider on the Tor Blue Jays.

Larry Ness' 15* Team Mismatch of the Week (41-29 TY / 71.9 percent go-against trend)

My 15* play is on the Det Tigers at 7:05 ET.

Ubaldo Jimenez contributed nicely for the Rockies during their late season and postseason runs last year. However, he's struggled as badly this year as his team has. His eight strong innings last Saturday vs the Mets gave him his first win in more than two months and some could say that he's looked like a different pitcher recently, as the Rockies have won THREE of his last four starts with Jimenez posting a 2.42 ERA. However, that would be ignoring the fact that all four of those starts were at Coors Field. The Rockies have been just awful on the road this year, going 12-28 (minus-$1,312), a mark that is better than only that of the Braves (11-27 / minus-$1,796). Jimenez is 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA in his eight road starts this season, with the Rockies losing all eight games. Almost everyone knows the "Detroit story" this year. The Tigers made major off-season acquisitions and were expected to be one of the AL's strongest teams. However, the Tigers opened the '08 season 0-7 (2-10), leaving them a "major mountain to climb." Climb it they have, though. Detroit has won 14 of its last 18 games since June 7 (10-2 at home during that stretch) and is now just five games back of the first-place White Sox (4 1/2 back of the red-hot Twins) in the AL Central. Starting for Detroit tonight is rookie Eddie Bonine. I saw him in his MLB debut, a TV game vs the Dodgers on June 14, in which he allowed nine hits and six ERs (5.1 IP) but got the win, 12-7. I then went against him in his next outing, last Friday at San Diego (vs Maddux). While the Padres won that game 6-2, Bonine was very solid, lasting seven innings while allowing six hits and only two ERs. Leyland likes his stuff and he may just be right. Anyway, I love the way the Tigers are playing right now and of course the Rockies has been a mess all season on the road. The Rockies dominated right-handed pitching last year (70-49) but it's been a different ball game this year, as they are only 22-39 vs righties, including 9-23 on the road (averaging 3.75 RPG). Bonine should be good enough to hold this lineup in check, while the Tigers will reach Jimenez early and often. Team Mismatch of the Week 15* Det Tigers.

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Trev Rogers **TOP RATED** MLB Game of the Year Friday Night!

Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -128

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RON RAYMOND

5* CFL GAME OF THE WEEK!

Winnipeg Blue Bombers -2.5

*Ron Raymond's 5* CFL picks have hit over 70% the last 5 years


5* MLB BEST BET WINNER

Minnesota Twins -125

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