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Vegas Experts

Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates

Expect very few runs to be scored in this afternoon's Toronto vs. Pittsburgh matchup. We say that because Blue Jays starter Dustin McGowan is an incredible 13-0 Under when favored. The last six times he's been in this situation, we've seen four runs or less total runs scored each time! That includes a complete game victory over Seattle back on 6/10 where he allowed just five hits (Toronto won 3-1). With the Jays scoring under 4 runs/game on the road, very few runs will be scored here.

Play on: Under

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David Malinsky 4*

Toronto Blue Jays @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates

After cashing an easy 4* ticket with the Pirates last night in a game that was simply in the wrong price range, guess what we have here - once again significant edges with the home team in a game in which the market perceptions are far off. This time we actually get an underdog return against the disheveled Blue Jays, and that means no hesitation coming right back.

The mantle of road favoritism for Toronto is difficult to support. The Blue Jays are on a seven-game losing streak, the longest in the Major’s, and are actually looking up at Pittsburgh in the standings. Does Dustin McGowan supply that magical edge? Hardly; if anything he makes this setting even worse. McGowan has worked to an ugly 1-4/6.27 tune on the road this season, and while we often look for extreme numbers to correct a bit over the course of the summer, all that does is continue a career pattern that has now reached 6-14/6.13 after crossing the Canadian border. And coming off of his worst outing of the season at Milwaukee (three home runs of the 16 batters that he faced), his confidence will hardly be at the ebb to turn things around.

The Pirates bring the confidence that the Blue Jays are lacking - they are 18-8 in their last 26 home games, and while Ian Snell has struggled on the road this season, he has worked to a sharp 2.97 tune from this mound. Snell is not an easy read vs. an opponent that lacks experience against him, and with 15 strikeouts over 11 innings of his last two home starts we are also buying in at the right time with a performer that has the stuff to correct his season-to-date overall numbers. And with no bothersome fatigue ratings from the bullpen (Matt Capps has worked both games in this series, but only needed 14 pitches last night), the latter innings are in good hands as well.

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Kelso

High rollers baseball club
10 Tampa Bay (run line)
10 Tigers
10 unit parlay

Best bets baseball club
10 unit Cubs
4 unit Brewers
3 unit Kansas City

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Jeffmoney

We Have 3 Plays For Ya Today

(mlb) Cubs -130 (pod)
(mlb) Rays -1.5, -105
(mlb) Giants -115

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*** EZWINNERS MLB ***

2 STAR: (968) MILWAUKEE (-$134) over Baltimore
(Action)
(Risking $268 to win $200)
1:05PM Central Time

1 STAR: (958) PITTSBURGH (+$109) over Toronto
(Listing Snell only)
(Risking $100 to win $109)
12:35PM Central Time

1 STAR: (952) COLORADO (-$117) over NY Mets
(Action)
(Risking $117 to win $100)
2:05PM Central Time

1 STAR: (975) FLORIDA (+$149) over Oakland
(Listing Miller only)
(Risking $100 to win $149)
3:05PM Central Time

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SPORTS KINGZ

CUBS -140

TAMPA BAY R/L -120

MILWAUKEE -135

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Players of America

Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees
The Play: Under 9.5
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)


Texas Rangers vs. Washington Nationals
The Play: Washington Nationals +105.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)

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CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS

Chicago Cubs -130

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ANTONWINS

Today's 4 unit MLB play is San Diego/Randy Wolf +110

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Matty Oshea

Underdog Game Of Day- Royals

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Winners Edge

NY Mets even , 2 units

Atlanta Braves RL even , 2 units

S.D Padres + 110 , 1 unit

Pittsburgh Pirates + 105 , 1 unit

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Frank Rosenthal

951 NYM+105
959 ANGELS+165
961 SEATTLE+190
968 BREWERS-140
969 DBACKS-140
971 GIANTS-115
973 PADRES+115
980 CUBS-125

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DUNKEL


Detroit at San Diego   
The Padres look to bounce back from last night's loss to the Tigers and take advantage of their 10-3 record at home when the total is 8 to 8 1/2.  San Diego is the underdog pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored straight up by 1.  Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+110).   Here are all of today's games.

SUNDAY, JUNE 22

Game 951-952: NY Mets at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 16.050; Colorado (Reynolds) 14.645
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+100); Under

Game 953-954: Cincinnati at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.657; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.756
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-180); Under

Game 955-956: St. Louis at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.542; Boston (Lester) 16.292
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-185); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-185); Over

Game 957-958: Toronto at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (McGowan) 14.531; Pittsburgh (Snell) 13.173
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-120); Over

Game 959-960: LA Angels at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.085; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.469
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-170); Under

Game 961-962: Seattle at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Silva) 13.436; Atlanta (Hudson) 15.456
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-200); Under

Game 963-964: Texas at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Padilla) 14.094; Washington (Lannan) 14.630
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100); Over

Game 965-966: Houston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Backe) 15.148; Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 14.280
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+185); Over

Game 967-968: Baltimore at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Olson) 14.361; Milwaukee (Parra) 15.941
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-145); Over

Game 969-970: Arizona at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Webb) 14.993; Minnesota (Hernandez) 15.502
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+145); Over

Game 971-972: San Francisco at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.083; Kansas City (Davies) 15.278
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100); Over

Game 973-974: Detroit at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 14.811; San Diego (Wolf) 16.189
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+110); Over

Game 975-976: Florida at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Miller) 14.766; Oakland (Duchscherer) 16.253
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-160); Over

Game 977-978: Cleveland at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Byrd) 14.126; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.923
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-155); Under

Game 979-980: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Vazquez) 16.004; Cubs (Dempster) 14.629
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-135); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+125); N/A

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Louie Mayo


MLB
(5*) Under 9½  Atlanta -110
(3*) Texas -115
(1*) Arizona -150

WNBA
(50*) Sacramento -5½

AFL
(50*) Chicago -3

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BIG AL's INTERLEAGUE PITCHING MISMATCH OF THE YEAR

At 1:35pm our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates are going for a rare series sweep in this third interleague game against Toronto, a team with a record very similar to their own. After two very good seasons in a row, Pittsburgh's 26 year-old righthander Ian Snell is taking a big step backwards in 2008 as so far he is only 3-7 with a 5.84 ERA and Snell has now lost five of his last six starts, his lone win coming against the hapless Nationals at home on June 11. Even more telling is Snell's WHIP over his past 3 starts. It's a dreadful 2.13. Like Snell, Dustin McGowan is a 26 year-old righthander, but unlike Snell, McGowan has pitched pretty well for the most part this season, and has great control, something that has evaded Snell so far. To wit: McGowan's WHIP over his last 3 outings is a super 1.03, and the Jays have won 11 of McGowan's last 14 day starts. Rightfielder Xavier Nady has been one of the Pirates best offensive players this season, but he ran into a wall chasing a fly ball in Baltimore last Saturday and has been out ever since with an injured shoulder. Although not on the DL, Nady did not play in Saturday night's win and he likely will have to sit this game out as well. Despite their two wins in a row in this series, the Pirates have only won three of their last eight games. Interleague Pitching Mismatch of the Year on the Jays.

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Wunderdog

Arizona at Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota +134

The Twins have caught fire as they have now posted wins in eight of their last 10 games, five in a row and the first two in this series. The pitching has been outstanding as they have allowed just nine runs in the five-game winning streak and have held Arizona to just three runs in the first two games here. The D-Backs have really struggled after an early big start, as they are just 9-16 over their last 25 and an even worse 6-15 in their last 21 on the road. Brandon Webb has been great, but hasn't won since June 6, and over his last three has pitched to a 6.46 ERA. The D-Backs won the first nine games that Webb started, but have been just 2-4 since and just 1-3 in his last four road starts. Good value here on the Twins.

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Jack Clayton

Tigers/Padres Under


JerseySteveWins

Milwaukee    


Global Handicapping    

Milwaukee    


KBWINS   

Colorado
   

Paul Leiner

10* Blue Jays -115


Global Sports Picks    

ORIOLES/BREWERS UNDER 9.5

   
Lucky Leprechaun Sports     

Kansas City +106


Prime Sports Picks

Dodgers


Vegas Steamline

Dodgers


Glen Mcgrew

Tigers


Joe Wiz

White Sox


Totals4u

Chisox/Cubs Over


Scott Spreitzer

Rangers


Computer Sports

Mets


Kyle Baugues

Reds/Yankees Over 9.5


Brandon Banks

Reds/Yankees Under 9.5


ARTHUR RALPH

Arizona D'Backs


BIG TIME SPORTS

GIANTS/ROYALS UNDER 8


Insider Sports Report 

Milwaukee -135


TRACE ADAMS

Phillies -1½


MIGHTY QUINN

Mets


PLATINUM PLAYS

PHILLIES


RAZOR SHARP

TEXAS


MIKE WYNN

Pittsburgh


SCOUT

St Louis


HUDDLE UP

Texas


#1 SPORTS

METS


DR VEGAS

Cleveland


JOHN FINA

Rockies


Nostradamus 

Yankees


TONY MATHEWS

Texas Rangers


Gamblers Data

Detroit Tigers -130


Cappers Access

Pirates
W. Sox


DONALD TRAN

Texas Rangers -110


Jennifer Barry

Houston Astros +150


Chad Jordan

Milwaukee Brewers -140


HOT LOCK SPORTS

Blue Jays/Pirates Over 8


Joey Hannigan - Playmakers

New York Yankees -210


"BIG SHOW " Handicapping

Toronto Blue Jays -117


NICK JONES

Toronto Blue Jays -120

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David Malinsky

Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers 4*

Because the Cubs have been playing at such a blistering pace, and draw more than their share of media attention, the current 17-7 run by these Brewers is far off of the radar screens in the N.L. Central, as is the form of Manny Parra, according to today’s line. That works for us. Now we get a hot team at home against a left-hander that they can mash, while they send a lefty of their own to the table that can control the lineup that he is facing.

Parra’s overall 6-2/4.22 is solid, but to appreciate him fully we have to recognize the sparkling 4-0/2.47 at home, where he brings a high level of confidence to the table. The real key with young left-handers is their advantage against teams that have not faced them before, and we saw Parra dominate Toronto in his last start, shutting the Blue Jays out on four hits over seven innings. In his second Inter-League encounter Baltimore brings a similar lack of experience and scouting reports, and the Orioles are nothing special at all against left-handed pitching, something that will hold up all season because of their lack of righty punch.

Garrett Olson also brings us value here because of a fluky 5-2 record that does not measure his abilities properly at all. A 4.80 ERA is a better indicator of his stuff, and note that it balloons to 6.23 on the road. And while Parra brings a high to the mound on recent form, Olson is at the opposite end of the spectrum - he lasted only 10 innings over his last two starts, allowing 10 runs on 13 hits, with as many walks as strikeouts, and a pair of home runs. But he got bailed out with a no-decision against Houston in his last outing, a game that the Orioles rallied to win, and that helps to cloud just how mediocre his stuff is (remember that 1-3/7.79 over seven starts LY?).


Arizona Diamondbacks at Minnesota Twins
PICK: Over 4*

Brandon Webb has not been Brandon Webb of late. Livan Hernandez is simply all that he can be at this stage of his career. And that means an excellent opportunity for this short total to be eclipsed.

Webb has lasted only 8.1 innings over his last two starts, allowing 10 runs on 14 hits and five walks, including a pair of home runs. There was a logic to those failings, and one that also carries forward here. First, note that he continues a career-long bias that makes him much less effective against left-handed hitters. the Mets and Athletics had the ability to load up from that side in the last two games. But then another issue comes into play - a lack of work. Webb is the prototype of the classic sinker-ball pitcher; the more he works the better he performs, as sinker-ballers actually pitch better when there is a level of fatigue in their arms. When they are too fresh, they often have a tough time getting the ball down in the strike zone. So after only throwing 58 pitches vs. the Mets, and then having five full days between starts, he followed up with his worst outing of the season vs. Oakland. But in that one he left after only 84 pitches, and we believe that it carries over to today - he will come in a bit too fresh again, and also vulnerable to those outstanding left-handers in the middle of the Minnesota lineup.

And then there is Hernandez. The veteran right-hander can only do it with guile these days, with his statistics literally crashing our “stuff” meter. For the full season he sports a ratio of 141 hits vs.only 29 strikeouts, which reaches historic baseball levels, and that was despite the advantage of pitching in a new league, where he had a chance to fool some batters early. What has happened now that scouting reports are out there? Over his last eight starts he sports a 7.46 ERA, and a mind-numbing count of 79 hits vs. 9 strikeouts. You can not survive at this level when that much contact is being made, and note that even in beating Washington in his last outing he was only able to strike out one of the 23 batters that he faced. Now he is up against an Arizona team that he made 33 starts for LY, and that means hitters that now full well his pitching style. The Diamondbacks are not going to be fooled by his “Church League Softball” velocity, and will make some solid contact.


Mariners (RL) at Braves (RL)
PICK: Braves (RL) 4*

Everyone once in a while a team will get a win that we can call good for the “soul”, and that was the case with the struggling Braves last night - rallying for that ‘W’ was something that they needed in the worst way, off of an arduous road trip, and the psychological blows of losing John Smoltz and Tom Glavine in recent weeks. It puts us in the right place at the right time to get behind them here, and Seattle provides a wonderful package to oppose.

The Mariners have struggled to a 6-17 tune on the road over the past two months, with many of those losses falling into our pockets. They are an offensively-challenged side that can not stand up to good pitching away from home (enter Tim Hudson), and this afternoon they do not bring a pitching staff that can keep them in the game. Carlos Silva falls down in every way imaginable here - he sits at an atrocious 0-8/8.49 over his last nine starts, with Seattle being out-scored by 26 runs in those games (the Mariners did win his lone non-decision in that span). On the road it has been a 1-4/6.08, on the heels of a 4-10/5.03 from opposing mounds LY. And he has been absolutely crushed by left-handed hitters, who have rocked him to a .328 tune this season, with eight home runs in 186 at-bats. The Braves are going to run a lot of lefties out there in today’s lineup. And with J. J. Putz and Brandon Morrow both missing from the bullpen, and Sean Green also out for today off of 35 Saturday pitches, the innings after Silva may be just as bad as the ones that he will work.

Note that despite only winning 5-4 last night, the game was actually a blowout for the Braves - they out-hit Seattle 11-5, with five of their hits going for extra bases, while the Mariners managed only singles. Atlanta had six players reach via a walk or HBP; Seattle only four. That creates the wrong impression, and hence outstanding value, and we will use the Run Line for an underdog return in a game that should break wide open.

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NSA

Det -120 20*
Cubs -135 10*
LAA +160 10*
Min +135 10*
tL/Bos Ov 9.5 10*
Mil -140 10*

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Larry Ness' 20* IL Total of the Month

20* Tex/Was Under

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