TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Re: TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Lee Kostroski

San Diego Padres @ New York Yankees
PICK: Under

The Yankees offense put up big numbers in the last series but they were playing in one of the top hitting ballparks in baseball in Houston. Overall on the season the Yankees are a dramatic 'under' team with the 'under' going 41-26-2. On the season the Yankees are hitting just .265 against left-handed pitching and the 'under' is 9-3 in Andy Pettitte's last 12 home starts.

Pettitte is coming off one of the worst home starts of his career so this will be a key game for him to get back on track. He pitched extremely well in Oakland in his last start overall with one run allowed over eight innings. The 'under' is 10-4 in his 14 starts this season and he faces a San Diego offense that is hitting only .246 on the season. The Padres are scoring just 3.8 runs per game this season and the low output can not be simply attributed to the pitching-friendly home ballpark as San Diego is hitting only .250 in road games.

San Diego starter Randy Wolf has recovered from a rocky April to deliver great recent results. Wolf has made six consecutive quality starts with a 2.29 ERA in that span. Wolf is averaging nearly six strikeouts per game in those six starts and on the year the 'under' is 11-3 in Wolf starts, including 5-2 in his road outings. Wolf also rarely walks batters so he should have success against a patient Yankees lineup. Look for low numbers in this interleague match-up.

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LT Profits

San Diego Padres +160

The San Diego Padres simply ooze value at this price with Randy Wolf on the hill tonight vs. Andy Pettitte and the New York Yankees.

Wolf is quite simply in raging form right now. He has recorded six straight Quality Starts, but that does not tell the entire story of just how hot he has been, as he has allowed exactly one run in each of his last three starts and exactly two runs in the two starts before that.

Pettitte is but a shell of his former self, and he has become rather inconsistent this season, seemingly alternating good and bad efforts. One constant for Pettitte though has been his poor pitching at home, where he is 1-3 with a 6.25 ERA and a1.47 WHIP. The last time he pitched in Yankee Stadium, he was torched for 10 earned runs in 6.2 innings by the Kansas City Royals.

Finally, the Padres have been playing much better baseball lately, going 8-3 in their ;last 11 games.

Pick: Padres +160


Atlanta Braves -115

The Atlanta Braves have suddenly become Road Warriors, and they have their ace Tim Hudson on the hill when they visit the Texas Rangers tonight.

Yes, the Braves are still a woeful 10-25 on the road, but they have now won three of their last four contests away from home after a 7-1 win at Colorado last night. They are also 7-2 all time vs. the Rangers, including 4-2 here in Arlington.

Hudson has been pitching extremely well with little to show for it, and he is due to accumulate some wins given his fine form. He has now reeled off five consecutive Quality Starts, allowing two runs or less in four of them and exactly one run in each of his last two outings. Yet amazingly, the Braves have lost his last four starts!

Texas starter Vicente Padilla has been the polar opposite of Hudson in that his record is better than it should be because the potent Rangers offense supports him so well. Padilla is 8-3 on the year despite a rather high 1.45 WHIP (compared to 1.14 for Hudson), and he has a 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in his last three starts, yet the Rangers are 2-1 in those outings.

The outcomes for these two pitchers have to catch up to their key numbers eventually, and an Atlanta win tonight is a step in that direction.

Pick: Braves -115

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Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Cubs/Rays OVER 7.5 Runs

I know we have two good pitchers on the hill tonight, but oddsmakers have set the bar too low bearing in mind the high caliber hitting teams we have here.  The Over is 6-1 in the Cubs last 7 games following an off day,  5-1-1 in the Cubs last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter, and 4-1-1 in the Cubs last 6 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Over is 6-1-1 in the Rays last 8 games following an off day, 14-5-2 in the Rays last 21 interleague games, and 11-5-1 in the Rays last 17 vs. the National League Central.  Bet the OVER tonight.

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Priceless Picks

1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -170

We have a good home team in the Sox going up against a poor road team in the Pirates here.  The Pirates are 12-42 in their last 54 interleague road games,  5-23 in their last 28 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record, 0-9 in their last 9 during game 1 of a series, and  0-4 in their last 4 Tuesday games.  The White Sox are 16-5 in their last 21 home games, 13-4 in their last 17 games as a favorite, and 88-39 in their last 127 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  The White Sox are a perfect 9-0 in Vazquez's last 9 starts during game 1 of a series and 13-3 in Vazquez's last 16 starts as a favorite.  We'll follow the numbers to an easy winner on the Sox.

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Tony Karpinski

New York Mets vs. LAA Angels
Play: New York Mets   

Anyone in New York that is down on Santana is out of their minds. This is a pitcher that every season has performed much better in the second half of the season. It is not as if he has been bad at all. This is a pitcher is 7-4 on the season with a 2.82 ERA. He also has had three blown saves for him so far. There is no reason he shouldn’t be 10-4 and be a sure-fire All star. His second halves always are better. This is a guy that has won more games in the last five years than any pitcher not on the Yankees. This Angels team didn’t see much of him with him Minnesota and he dominates a line-up that hasn’t seen him. Take the Mets in game two of the series to get a big win on the road with their NEW manager. Play the NY METS 

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John Ryan

Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Chicago Cubs 

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Chicago Cubs – Personally, and as many of you already know, Kazmir is one of my favorite and most respected young guns in all of baseball. Yet, I developed the Ai Simulator in order to take away the subjectivity of determining a wager opportunity and in this case is going against my “gut” feel. Many times, especially in the NFL, we think we see line maker errors that are mortal locks and more times than we care to admit these plays lose ATS. Again, nearly 20 years ago, I developed the Ai Simulator first for Foreign Exchange trading and then later for sports investing. Let’s now take a look at some of the factors reinforcing this play on the Cubs. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 76-42 making 49.8 units since 1997. Play against all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher that are excellent fielding teams averaging <=0.5 errors/game on the season and is now facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher sporting a WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. Fatigue may becoming a factor with Kazmir as he allowed 5 ER in his last 2 starts and allowed 3 ER in his last start for the first since May 4th spanning 7 starts. The bullpens may well be the deciding factor in this game and that supports the Cubs. Note that the Cubs are 11-0 (+11.2 Units) against the money line versus a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season.

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Wunderdog

Los Angeles Lakers at Boston
Pick: Boston -4

Have the oddsmakers and betting public actually been watching this series? It doesn't appear so given how these lines continue to be set. We have been watching and we'll tell you our opinion. The Celtics are the better team. They were the better team by a longshot in games one and two at home. They were the better team on the road, too. They stole one in LA and had a chance to win both of the other two games. Now they return home again and even though the oddsmakers have adjusted, they not adjusted enough. Sure, it was crazy to get Boston as an underdog in game two - just ridiculous. Now they are -4, which in essence says these two teams are about even with the Celts getting a couple of buckets for home-court. Ha! Boston has won five of seven vs. the Lakers this year. They have covered seven of seven. The Celtics are 47-7 at home on the season, and that includes 12-1 in the playoffs. The perception remains with some that the West is a much better and deeper conference and if the Lakers played in the East, they would have matched the Celtics win for win. What is forgotten is the fact the Celtics were 25-5 against the West in the regular season! The press and fans remain Kobe crazy. But the fact is Paul Pierce has been the best player on the floor in these Finals. Pierce is matching Kobe virtually point for point, outshooting him from the field and the line, and the rebounds and assists are even. And, Pierce has been more clutch. That leaves Ray Allen (questionable) and Garnett as the next two best players on the court, playing at home. And how did the Lakers soft big men and supposedly great bench perform on the road in games one and two? They were non-existent while the Celtics role players collectively played superb. As we have said before, Boston can beat teams like LA while LA struggles vs. teams like Boston. The Lakers are 0-9 ATS this season versus good defensive teams (those holding opponents to  under 43% shooting). Meanwhile, Boston is 14-5 ATS versus explosive offensive teams (those scoring 103+ ppg). If you think this Celtics trio isn't hungry to put a title in the books, then you underestimate who they are. We love what we saw from Boston last game. They could have taken a bit of a rest knowing that LA was going to be playing like a caged animal. They could have rested on their laurels knowing they were returning home for two straight games. But they didn't. They again withstood a ridiculous Lakers first quarter and cut a 19 point lead down to nothing. They showed heart and a desire to win and win now. The Celtics have won 12 in the playoffs by an average margin of 13.5 ppg, and have yet to win any of the 12 by less than 4 points. They are the better team in a great matchup for them. The Celtics should have been prohibitive favorites at home in games one and two. They should have been very small dogs on the road. Tonight they should be laying way more than 4. Value Celtics, Championship Celtics.

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JB's Computer Picks

New York Yankees -165

Milwaukee Brewers -115

San Francisco Giants -105

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Winners Edge

NBA

LA Lakers +4 , 2 units


MLB

NY Mets Even , 2 units

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THE POWER INDEX

Boston* 4 over L.A. Lakers


FRANK PATRON

Boston Red Sox +105


PAUL LEINER

10* Chw/Pitt Over 8.5


DONALD TRAN

Toronto Blue Jays +105


Jennifer Barry

Florida/Seattle Under 8

Chad Jordan

Phillies -110

Hot Lock sports

Mets


Sports Book Edge 

Indians/Rockies Ov.10


PRIORITY SPORTS INFO

D'backs -140


Winning Colors Pks 

Lakers/Celtics Ov.191 


BILLY IRISH   

Ch.W.Sox -170 


LPW SPORTS FORECAST   

Rockies/Indians Ov.10

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Jeff Scott Sports

Boston/Philadelphia Over 10

The Over is 4-1-1 in Lesters last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record and Over is 10-3-3 in Red Sox last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, while the Over is 7-1 in Phillies last 8 interleague games and 7-0 in Moyers last 7 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. 2 of the top 9 batting averages, 2 of the top 4 run scoring teams and 2 of the top 5 homerun leaders meet in Philadelphia tonight in what should be an exciting game 2 of this 3 game set. Jamie Mayor gets the ball for the Phils and his games have been a bit high scoring this year as 10.6 rpg have been scored in his starts overall, including 12.6 rpg in his home starts and 11.9 rpg in his night starts. The Phils score 5.4 rpg at home, including 7.7 rpg in Moyer's home starts, plus they score 6.4 rpg vs lefty starters and 8.9 rpg in Moyer's night starts this year. The Red Sox have the 2nd leading BA in the league at .281, including a .299 BA vs lefty starters and a .291 BA in interleague play. The Sox score 5.8 rpg vs lefties and 6 rpg in interleague play. John Lester has been tough for the Sox this year and he does have a no-hitter to his credit, but there are signs that he will struggle tonight. First is how well the Phils hit lefties and second is the fact that his road ERA is 4.71 overall, including a 5.26 ERA in his last 5 road starts. Both teams hit the ball really well and both score a ton of runs, plus they're playing in a hitters park, with mediocre pitching on the mound. I say about 12-14 runs in this one.

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David Malinsky 4*

Atlanta Braves @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers

The marketplace is making a most unusual statement when they make a team with a 10-25 road record a visiting favorite against a quality opponent, and we believe that tonight’s particular setting makes the Braves even more vulnerable. So count us in.

Situations like this one are most rare in the Major League’s - Atlanta is playing in the four different city in six days, and third in three. Making the adjustments more difficult is that the Braves had to play Sunday evening at Anaheim, instead of an afternoon start, and that they have also lost an hour in the time zone transition each of the last two days. That can be even further exacerbated by having to adjust to a ball park that they have precious little experience in (they have not been here since 2005), and while Tim Hudson brings decent form to the table, which is a prime reason why Atlanta is favored, he also brings issues as well.

Hudson, along with Mark Teixeira, has plenty of experience at Arlington, but it has not been good - he has worked to a 2-4/6.23 from this mound over his career. He also faces some left/right bias issues (left-handers have hit 27 points higher against him this season, and all seven home runs have come from hitters batting from that side) against as potent of a group of left-handers as any lineup can produce. And taking it a step further is a temperature that is expected to be in the upper 80’s at first pitch. That is going to make it tough for Hudson to go deep into the evening, and that muddled Atlanta bullpen is no match for this class of offense in this park.

There is also value here because Vicente Padilla’s solid 8-3/3.89 has simply not caused a ripple anywhere. The Rangers are 11-3 in his 14 starts, and the heat is actually something that he is most comfortable with - he has been able to work to a 3.27 from this mound so far, on the heels of a 4-3/3.28 LY. And while the Braves come in tired, the Rangers had yesterday off to bring all bullpen arms fresh for the latter stages. It all adds up to tell us that the wrong team is favored.

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Indian Cowboy

Celtics OVER 191.5 POD

SF Giants +105

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MONEYLOCKOFTHEDAY

Premium

2 UNITS - Atlanta Braves


Digger - Mets/Angels Under

Junior - Boston Celtics -4

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Jeffersonsports

Boston+106
La Dodgers+102
La Angels-115

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Marco D´Angelo 

Today's Pick: TEXAS RANGERS

Atlanta played a Sunday Night Game in LA, Then flew to Colorado for a Monday Game and then had to fly to Texas for tonight's Game. Huge scheduling edge for Texas. Look for them to stop the Braves tonight! TAKE TEXAS. 

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Ben Burns 

Detroit vs. San Francisco
Pick: Detroit Tigers

The Giants won yesterday's battle of right-handed starters. Tonight's matchup features a pair of southpaws though, which favors the visitors. Rogers goes for the Tigers and he's coming off back to back gems, allowing two combined runs through 15 complete innings. Conversely, Sanchez gave up seven runs in just five innings in his last start. After being beaten by Oakland's Greg Smith a few days ago, the Giants are now 6-10 their last 16 games against left-handed starters and 46-59 (-13.8) since the beginning of the 2006 season. On the other hand, during that stretch, the Tigers were a highly profitable 70-44 (+27.6) against left-handed starters and 34-14 (+16.9) in Interleague games. Consider a play on DETROIT. 

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Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on NY Mets +108

We have a big time system play in favor of our side tonight.  Plays against any team (LA ANGELS) - terrible AL offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a good NL starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70), cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games are 37-6 since 1997.  That's an 86% success rate over the last 11 seasons.  Santan is also 74-19 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season since 1997 and 42-9 against the money line after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1997.  I like the Mets to take down the Halos again tonight behind their ace southpaw.

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Wunderdog

San Diego at New York Yankees
Pick: Game Total UNDER 9.5

The Yankees always seem to be overpriced on the line, but also in totals because of the perception of them being a scoring machine. The fact is that the Yankees have scored two runs or less 21 times already this season. Andy Pettitte has produced UNDER games in 20 of his last 28 starts, and on the season the Yankees are playing UNDER to a mark of 41-26-2. San Diego has no offense and they went through a major league first, winning four straight by 2-1 scores. Randy Wolf is hot right now allowing no more than two runs in each of his last five starts, so we will go UNDER here

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EZWINNERS

MLB

5 STAR: (912) TEXAS (+$106) over Atlanta
(Listing Padilla only)
(Risking $500 to win $530)

1 STAR: (917) PITTSBURGH (+$167) over Chicago
(Listing Snell only)
(Risking $100 to win $167)

1 STAR: (927) FLORIDA (+$146) over Seattle
(Listing Olsen only)
(Risking $100 to win $146)

NBA

5 STAR: (511) LA LAKERS (+4.5) over Boston
(Risking $550 to win $500)

2 STAR: (511) LA LAKERS (+$175) over Boston
(Risking $200 to win $350)

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