Thursday Service Plays

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PlusLineSports Daily Baseball Selection

Milwaukee Brewers -1.5

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Boston Celtics at L.A. Lakers

In game 3 of the NBA finals the Lakers beat the Celtics 87-81. The Lakers won their first game of the series at home and look to tie the series with a win tonight. Home court has definitely been the advantage in this series, as the first team to win a road game may be the one with the championship rings. Game 3 was much like game 2 in that an unheralded player came up big, as in game 2 it was the Celtics' Leon Powe and in game 3 it was the Lakers Sasha Vujacic, who chipped in for 20 points including 3 3-pointers. The high scorer for the Lakers, need I even say it, was Kobe Bryant who went for 36 points on 12/20 shooting. For the game the Lakers shot 30/69 for a field goal percentage of 43.5%. In the game the Lakers out rebounded the Celtics 45-44. The high scorer for the Celtics in game 3 was Ray Allen, who went for 25 points on 8/13 shooting and hit 5 3-pointers. In the game the Celtics shot poorly, as they shot only 29/83 for a field goal percentage of 34.9%. Across the board the stats were pretty similar between the two teams, but unlike the first 2 games of the series the Lakers took more free throws, as they were 21/34 from the charity stripe, while the Celtics were 15/22.

Staff Pick: The Lakers were lucky that Sasha Vujacic had a big game, as Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom were both held under 10 points, as they combined to shoot 5/18 from the floor for only 13 points. Ray Allen broke out and had a big game, but the 2 other players in the Big 3, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, did not show up, as they combined for only 19 points on 8/35 shooting. For the Celtics to win a game in L.A. at least 2 of the Big 3 have to play well. Gasol and Odom have to play better in game 4, as the Lakers cannot count on a reserve to pick up the scoring slack again. Odom has played poorly in this series and if he steps up and records a double/double, like in the regular season (14.2 ppg 10.6 rpg), the Lakers are a very tough team to beat. Both Garnett and Pierce did not shoot well in game 3, understatement 8/35 combined, and have to shoot the rock better to have any chance in La La land. Game 4 is vital to the Lakers, as it will be almost impossible to win the series having to win the final 2 games in Boston. Look for the Lakers to come out firing and for Gasol and Odom play much better. Even though Pierce and Garnett will play better, how can they not, the Lakers will win this game and tie the series.

Lakers 96 Celtics 93

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JB's Computer Picks

Texas Rangers +110

Chicago Cubs -145

Boston Red Sox -160 * * *


Best Bet * * *

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Chris Jordan

Atlanta at CHICAGO -145

Good thing Carlos Zambrano is on the hill in this one, since Cubs’ star Alfonso Soriano is out with a hand injury after being beaned it yesterday against the Braves. It’s a significant injury, but if you look at this lineup, the Cubs have hitters all the way through it. I’ll be honest with you, when I went online to vote for the National League All-Star team, I thought to myself this is a team that you could make a case that just about each everyday player could be on that team.

Chicago’s pitching has been rock solid as well, and the Big Z has contributed in a major way. He’s 4-0 at home with a 2.38 ERA and after getting shelled in his last outing – at Dodger Stadium – he’ll be looking to redeem himself. He’s easily one of the best bounce-back pitchers in the game, and with the Braves hobbling into this one on a five-game losing streak, I’ll bank on the home team.

2* CUBS

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Jack Clayton

Twins/Indians Under


MustWinSportsPicks

Boston/LA Lakers Over 191.5    


Templer's Sports Picks    

Cleveland


Frank Patron

Chicago Cubs -140


Rocco Spacamuro

100* Cubs


Arthur Ralph

Florida


Global Sports Picks

DIAMONDBACKS +140


MadduxSports

LA & Boston Under


Cappers Access

Celtics
Brewers


Vegas Steamline

Phillies


Glen Mcgrew

Pirates


Razor Sharp Sports

Padres


Razor Sharp Sports

Padres


AntonWins

Celtics


floridabookybusters    

Boston/LA Lakers Under 191.5


Paul Leiner

10* Pirates -115


Jennifer Barry

Yankees -110


Chad Jordan

Padres -135


Play By Play Inc.

BOSTON/LA LAKERS Under 191.5


BIG TIME SPORTS

ORIOLES/RED SOX OVER 9.5


TRACE ADAMS

Colorado Rockies


DONALD TRAN

Boston Red Sox -150


TOTALS 4 U

PHILADELPHIA/FLORIDA OVER 10


#1 SPORTS

MINNESOTA TWINS + 180


HUDDLE UP

Arizona/NY Mets Under


PLATINUM PLAYS

CARDINALS + 115


MIGHTY QUINN

Lakers

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Professional Gambler Newsletter

CELTICS +7.5 -104 at Lakers
Celtics at Lakers UNDER 191.5 -108

Major League Baseball:
ASTROS +125 over Brewers (Moehler-Sheets) (OR +1.5 -132)


ASTROS +125 over Brewers (Moehler-Sheets) (OR +1.5 -132)
The average bettor figures to like Sheets on the mound over Moehler, but if you'll check recent history, the Astros have allowed fewer hits when starting Moehler than the Brewers have allowed when starting Sheets. Add in a little home field advantage and we have to think the Astros and Moehler have at least some edge over the Brewers and Sheets.  At the other end of the pitch, the Astros are currently getting more than 11 hits per 9 innings at bat, the Brewers are getting only about 9.5 hits per 9 innings at bat. (The average National League team gets 9 hits in 9 innings.) We'd lay as much as -120 with the Astros here, so getting odds of +125 makes this a relatively strong play for us. 

CELTICS +7.5 -104 at Lakers
Celtics at Lakers UNDER 191.5 -108
So far, we're 3-0 against this series but tonight's game figures to be our tightest play yet. A lot figures to be determined by events on the floor...Emotions, anger, confidence, and plenty of other motivations figure to move back and forth between the individual players as the game progresses. Keep in mind that the Celtics' season record on the road is as good as the Lakers' record at home. That's important to note. Against a team as good as the Celtics, it is very difficult to win twice in a row. Nevertheless, My friend Jack Painter taught me a handicapping tool many years ago that goes like this: "If you heard the score of this game ended up 120 to 80, could you guess who won?"Think about that....At 120-80 we'd have to guess the Lakers won the game. That doesn't bode well for our play on the Celtics +7.5.Now, what if you heard the total score of the game turned out to be less than 180 points?...This looks like a good time to use a 2-bet parlay. The lower the total score, the more likely the Celtics will cover. The higher the total score, the more likely the Lakers will cover.

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LT Profits

Baltimore Orioles +145

The Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox have split the first two games of this series in Fenway Park, but we are looking for the Orioles to take the rubber match at a very nice price.

Jeremy Guthrie has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in all of baseball for the Orioles this season. Guthrie has an excellent 3.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 90 innings, he has posted six consecutive Quality Starts to give him 12 out of 14 totals starts this year, and yet he is 3-6! Guthrie simply has to start accumulating wins if he continues pitching like he has, and he has allowed three runs or less in all five of his career starts vs. Boston. On a positive note, the Orioles have won both of his starts vs. the Red Sox this year.

Jon Lester is coming off of his best outing since tossing his no-hitter, as he held the Toronto Blue Jays to one run on eight hits in 6.1 innings in his last starts. However, his overall numbers are only on par with Guthrie, and he actually has a slightly worse ERA (3.50) and a significantly worse WHIP (1.37).

Thus, all the value lies with Guthrie at this price, especially with Baltimore also ranking fourth in the American League with a nice 3.19 bullpen ERA.

Pick: Orioles +145


Philadelphia Phillies -110

The Philadelphia Phillies have dropped the first two games of this series vs. the Florida Marlins in Miami, but we look for the Phils to avoid the sweep by salvaging a win in the series finale.

The Marlins must feel good about themselves after beating Phillies ace Cole Hamels last night, and they could easily feel a bit complacent facing the ageless Jamie Moyer here. However, the crafty southpaw continues to get the job done. Philadelphia is 9-4 as a team in all of Moyer?s starts this season, and they have won his last five starts with Moyer allowing three runs or less in three of them. He has not embarrassed himself with a nice 1.14 WHIP in his last three outings, and when he is in need of relief, the Phillies lead the Major Leagues with a 2.74 bullpen ERA.

The Fish counter with another southpaw in Scott Olsen, and while he does have good overall numbers at 4-3 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, he has been somewhat inconsistent with just six Quality Starts in his last 10 outings. Furthermore, he was hit hard by these Phillies the last time he faced them last season right in this stadium, as he surrendered five earned runs and 10 base runners while lasting just3.1 innings.

The Phillies has won 12 of 14 games coming into this series, so we look for them to start a new winning streak tonight.

Pick: Phillies -110

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Tom Freese

New York at Oakland

New York is 10-4 the last 14 road starts made by Andy Pettitte and they are 39-14 in Game 3 of a series. The Yankees are 17-8 with Pettite when he has 4 days of rest and they are 4-0 when Pettitte starts game 3 of a series. Oakland starter Joe Blanton is 0-3 with a 9.89 ERA vs. the Yankees and the A's are 0-6 with Blanton if they scored 5 or more runs in their last game.PLAY ON NEW YORK

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Bryan Leonard

San Francisco at Colorado Under

The Giants haven't fared well offensively on the road vs right-handed starters scoring just 3.64 runs per game. Today they will get their first look at Greg Reynolds. In three home starts Reynolds has a strong 3.00 ERA. His only problem is finding the strike zone as he has a tendency to get wild. The Giants have scored just 26 runs against Colorado pitching in eight games this season. We don't expect a breakout here.

Jonathan Sanchez takes the hill for the visitor and he is in fine form with five straight quality starts. This will be the third time he has faced the Rockies this year and he has pitched well in those games. Colorado has managed just four earned runs in 12 innings of work. The Rockies broke out with 10 runs in the series opener but that's not been the norm for this young team. In the last 14 games they managed more than four runs just four times. Considering that Colorado hasn't hit lefties well this season we can see Sanchez being dominant once again.

PLAY UNDER

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SPORTS GAMBLING HOTLINE

Boston at LA Lakers

Tonight, we just don't see how these two teams can combine to go OVER the posted total

Tuesday's game was a display of offensive ineptness. In fact, the game was just downright "offensive"!!!!

Two of the Three games played have held UNDER the total, and the Lakers are on an playoff UNDER run of 7-1 their last 8 playoff games.

Boston has played LOW in 5 of their last 7 playoff games.

Until we see the supporting players contribute on a more consistent basis, we have to place our money on the UNDER once again.

Look for the defense to once again force the offense into looking bad, and look for Game Four of the 2008 NBA Finals to stay UNDER the posted total.

Play the LOW!

5* UNDER

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Cajun-Sports

San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Prediction: SAN FRANCISCO +105 

We will back Sanchez and the boys from the Bay against Reynolds and the Rockies on Thursday afternoon. San Fran is 14-7 against the money line in road games versus teams that average <=0.6 errors per game this season. They are also 8-2 against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs per game this season. We also know that Sanchez is a perfect 6-0 against the money line versus teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game this season. Colorado is 24-39 in all games this season and 9-21 against division opponents this year. Sanchez is 3-0 his last three trips to the bump with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.200. Reynolds on the other hand has struggled this season and his last three starts have seen him post a 1-2 record with a 6.48 ERA and a WHIP of 1.740. Our Pitcher Power Index Ratings show Sanchez only allowing 2.5 runs while Reynolds will allow 5.3 runs in this contest. Combine all these factors and we have a play on the Giants with Sanchez on Thursday afternoon.

1* SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +105

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VEGAS SPORTS PICS

Pittsburgh -125**

Chicago Cubs -130*

St Louis +115*

Philadelphia -110*

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MATT FARGO

San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: San Francisco Giants 

San Francisco has not fared well in the first two games in Colorado but last night could have gone either way in that 1-0 setback. Still, the Giants are playing good baseball right now and it has been a combination of good hitting and good pitching and the latter has been on a roll even prior to this series. The staff has now allowed three runs or less in 10 of their last 15 games. Not to be outdone, the offense has averaged 5.2 rpg over that span with the team going 9-6 over that stretch.

Colorado is back to over .500 at home thanks to wins in the first two games of this series but it is certainly nothing to be jubilant about. The Rockies are in the middle of a very solid run right now but it has been a combination of bad hitting and pitching that has hurt this team all season long. The Rockies are hitting .256 on the year, 54th to last in the league and the ERA is at 4.74 which is second to last in the N.L. Even with wins in six of the last seven games, Colorado is hitting just .249 over its last 10 games.

I've ridden Jonathan Sanchez in his last two starts and there is no reason to let up here. He has allowed two or less runs in his last five starts, posting a 2.18 ERA over that span. Pitching on the road was erratic early on in the season but his last three road starts were solid efforts and one of those was in Colorado where he allowed two runs in 6.1 innings. The Giants have won his last three starts by a combined score of 27-5 so while he has been pitching awesome, the offense has been providing a ton of run support as well.

Greg Reynolds makes his seventh start of the season for the Rockies and it has been a rocky year. He is coming off his second quality outing of the season but he has allowed four runs or more in four of his six starts. Colorado is 3-0 in his three home starts but he has yet to put together two consecutive solid starts so that streak is in big jeopardy here. His WHIP on the season is 1.43 and it is 1.74 over his last three starts so he is going in the wrong direction. Play San Francisco Giants 1.5 Units

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Louie Mayo

MLB
(5*) 33-37 -52.20 Mets -147
(3*) 38-33 -8.77 Over 9½ Colorado +100
(1*) 40-33 +.57 Detroit -118

WNBA 
(50*) Minnesota -9½

NBA
(50*) Lakers -7½

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VEGAS EXPERTS

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox

As we've noted here before, Boston is a Major League best 27-7 at home this season and 24-5 when favored. That includes a sizzling 13-0 record when priced between -150 and -200. With Jon Lester in fine form and owning a 3-0 career mark vs. Baltimore, not to mention a 16-5 team start record if coming off a team win, we have no problem laying the juice against a team that is 5-15 in their last 20 trips to Fenway.

Play on: Boston

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GAMBLERS WORLD

TIP OF THE DAY

Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers

The Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday night when they battle at STAPLES Center in Game 4 of the NBA Finals.Oddsmakers currently have the Lakers listed as 8-point favorites versus the Celtics, while the game's total is sitting at 192. Kobe Bryant went for 36 points and seven rebounds to lead the Lakers to an 87-81 win over the Celtics in Game 3 of the Finals on Tuesday.Los Angeles failed to cover as 8.5-point home favorites as the teams played UNDER the194-point total set by oddsmakers.Sasha Vujacic added 20 points off the bench for the Lakers, who now trail the Celtics 2-1 in the best-of-seven series.Ray Allen paced Boston with 25 points, while Kevin Garnett scored 13 points and hauled down 12 boards for the Celtics.

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BRIAN MARSHALL

Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Minnesota/Cleveland Over 9.5

Game Analyses: Do you love high-scoring games? If yes, you will love Thursday's MLB game between the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians.

The Minnesota Twins will be lead by starting pitcher Livan Hernandez. Livan Hernandez has struggled this season. In fact, Livan Hernandez has a 5.32 ERA on the season. In addition, Livan Hernandez has a 10.12 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Livan Hernandez giving up many hits and runs today.

The Cleveland Indians will be lead by starting pitcher Aaron Laffey. Aaron Laffey has been having big pitching problems as of late. In fact, Aaron Laffey has a 5.60 ERA in his last 3 starts. We also see Aaron Laffey giving up many hits and runs today.

The bottom line, both these teams will give up many runs today.

Take the Minnesota Twins/Cleveland Indians Over 9.5

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SPORTS GAMBLING HOTLINE

Tonight, we just don't see how these two teams can combine to go OVER the posted total
Tuesday's game was a display of offensive ineptness. In fact, the game was just downright "offensive"!!!!

Two of the Three games played have held UNDER the total, and the Lakers are on an playoff UNDER run of 7-1 their last 8 playoff games.

Boston has played LOW in 5 of their last 7 playoff games.

Until we see the supporting players contribute on a more consistent basis, we have to place our money on the UNDER once again.

Look for the defense to once again force the offense into looking bad, and look for Game Four of the 2008 NBA Finals to stay UNDER the posted total.

Play the LOW!

5* UNDER

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KARL GARRETT

Tonight I am going against the grain, and going with the Celtics-Lakers game to go OVER the posted total.

I know the UNDER has been the way to go for both of these teams of late, as Boston has played LOW in 5 of their last 7 playoff games, while the Lakers have been UNDER in 7 of 8, but I can't imagine these teams playing another clunker like they delivered on Tuesday when both teams couldn't hit the broadside of a barn, nor make their free throws with any consistency.

Look for all of that to change this evening, and look for the lowered total from the linesmakers to also play a factor, as we see a game tonight similar to Game Two when the teams combined for an easy OVER.

This total seems very low to the G-Man, and I am looking for the OVER to come through with about 2 minutes to go in regulation.

It may be a little bit of a sweat to get there, but get there they will.

Take the OVER!

2* OVER

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MARC LAWRENCE

CLE (-185) vs MIN
Play On: Cleveland

Note: The Tribe wraps up its three game set with the Twins Thursday evening when Aaron Laffy takes on Livan Hernandez at Progressive Field in Cleveland.  Laffey has been like day-and-night when hurling at home as opposed to on the road this season as evidence by his 1.38 ERA in Cleveland compared to his 5.79 ERA away.  Conversely, Hernandez owns a lousy 6.00 ERA on the road, which is more than 1.3 runs higher than that at home in the Metrodome this year.  Look for Laffey to improve to 12-5 in his last 17 teams starts, including four in a row at home, here tonight.

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