MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Larry Ness

Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Los Angeles Angels

REASON FOR PICK: The Angels scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth (with two outs) to edge the Blue Jays 4-3 on Sunday. The win gave the Angels their fifth straight series win and 10 wins in their last 15 games. All this despite the fact that LA has not scored more than four runs in a game since the team's 10-2 win over the Dodgers on May 18 (13 games ago!). The Angels are batting a pathetic .204 as a team since May 20 (lowest in all of MLB during that span), yet are 8-4 in their 12 games. As for the Mariners, they enter tonight's game at 21-36, the worst record in the AL. What a difference a year makes! The Mariners were MLB's second-biggest "money-makers" last year, going plus-$1,924 vs the moneyline (only the Rockies were better). However, they are the second-biggest "money-burners" this year (ironically, only the Rockies are worse!), at minus-$1,598. Seattle enters this game having dropped nine of its last 12 games and will start the struggling Jarrod Washburn. Washburn is 2-6 with a 6.54 ERA in '08 and has just one win since April 9. He has had trouble both home and away, posting a 7.04 ERA in six road starts (team is 1-5) and a 6.14 ERA in four home starts (team is 1-3). The ex-Angel will face his former team for the second time this year, having given up four runs and 10 hits over six innings on April 19 in a 4-1 loss. Washburn's mound opponent in that April game was Ervin Santana and he is again tonight. Everyone knows that Santana entered this year with an excellent home mark but an atrocious road record. However, while he's continued to pitch well in Anaheim in '08 (3-1 with a 2.52 ERA in five starts), the difference has been in his road performances. Santana entered '08 with a 10-21 record and a 7.14 ERA on the road in 39 starts (team was 13-26). However, he's 4-1 with a 3.83 ERA in six starts this year (team is 4-2), giving him an overall 7-2 mark in '08, with a 3.09 ERA. The Angels have continued to find ways to win despite their hitting woes but in Washburn, they have an opposing pitcher they should be able to "get to." LA had trouble vs lefties last year (19-21 on the season) but is 9-2 vs left-handed starters so far in '08. Play the Angels

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Ted Sevransky

Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Under

REASON FOR PICK: It’s not hard to bet Aaron Laffey games Under the total right now, even against good hitting teams like the Rangers. Yes, it’ll be a warm night in Texas, and yes, we saw the Rangers and A’s combine to pound out 33 runs in the final two games of their series here over the weekend. But let’s not forget about the strong winds blowing in from right field tonight. Nor should we fail to appreciate just how good Aaron Laffey has been – his 0.79 ERA for the month of May was the lowest of any starting pitcher in baseball, with five consecutive absolutely dominant outings. The Rangers haven’t hit lefties all year, hitting 39 points higher against righties than southpaws for the season, and an even sharper .248/.332 lefty/righty split in their last ten games.

Meanwhile, Cleveland’s offensive woes continue to mar their season. They were held to three runs in their final two games at Kansas City over the weekend, helping the Royals break their extended losing streak. Those results are typical for the light hitting Indians on the road – they’ve averaged just 3.5 runs per game away from home for the entire season. Cleveland has been held to three runs or less nine times in their last eleven road games, making this total look a tad bit too high. When we factor in the success of Rangers rookie Doug Mathis in his last outing, holding this same Indians lineup to a single run in six innings of work in 2-1 Texas victory, the Under here looks rock solid. Take the Under.

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THE MILLER GROUP

New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Minnesota Twins

We simply feel there's too much value to pass up with the Twins at home on Monday. While the Yankees have dominated the Twinkies in recent years, they're still a losing team on the road this season and on getaway day, we wouldn't be surprised to see a disinterested effort.

Andy Pettitte doesn't have any business being priced in this range on the road. The Yankees are just 5-6 in his 11 starts in 2008, and have lost two of his last three on the road. He owns excellent lifetime numbers against the Twins, but has only faced them once since 2003.

Livan Hernandez gets the call for the Twins. As poorly as he has pitched this season, the Twins are still 9-3 in his 12 starts, including a 5-1 ledger here at the Metrodome. He's been getting excellent run support, to the tune of close to seven runs per game in Minnesota.

The Twins will stay home to host the Orioles tomorrow while the Yankees fly back to New York to open a homestand. Scheduling alone favors the Twins this evening and with a chance to earn a rare split against the Yankees, we expect to see a motivated effort. Take Minnesota.

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DOC'S

New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: Over

REASON FOR PICK: The Mets will be lacking sleep after playing on Sunday Night Baseball yesterday and now must make a cross country flight to the Bay Area, as this three game series opens up @ AT&T Park. The good news is that the Mets line-up came alive during the weekend taking three of four games from Los Angeles. Delgado is finally starting to hit and that should increase their productivity. The Mets send LHP Oliver Perez to the mound and he has had no success against the Giants going 0-4 with a 5.83 E.R.A. in eight starts. We will not worry who covers this pick’em game and just collect with the OVER!

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Tom Freese

Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

Cleveland is 6-0 with Aaron Laffey when the Total is 9.0 to 10.5 and they are 10-4 in his last 14 starts. The Indians are 6-2 their last 8 games vs. AL West teams and they are 5-1 their last 6 games at Texas. The Ranger are 13-27 their last 40 games as home underdogs of +110 to +150 and they are 1-4 their last 5 games vs. lefty starters. Texas is 1-6 on Monday and they are 2-6 vs. team that allowed 5 or more runs in their last game. PLAY ON CLEVELAND w/Laffey

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

FRANK ROSENTHAL

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL

BRAVES-145 SB
UNDER 10 SB
BREWERS-135 SB+
PADRES+155 SB
ORIOLES-110 SB
YANKS-140 SB
A'S-160 SB
ANGELS-125 SB+

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Mr. A's

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres have won five if their last 7 games and will send Cha Seung Baek (1-1, 5.23), to the mound. The right-hander will  make his starting debut for San Diego.

The Chicago Cubs have played first-rate at home, but struggles away from home, just 7-13 on the road. But will send their ace Carlos Zambrano (7-1, 2.33 ERA), to the hill. The right-hander is 5-1 with a 2.19 ERA against the Padres and the Cubs have won five of the righty’s last 7 starts versus the Padres.

Go with the Cubs tonight for their sixth straight win, with the impressive Big Z at the controls.

Chicago Cubs -165

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Jorge Gonzalez

COLORADO at LA DODGERS
Play Under 1 unit

The Dodgers and Rockies come staggering into this series in Los Angeles. The dodgers are coming off a road trip where they won just once in seven tries. The Rockies have lost seven straight games overall and 12 straight on the road. The Dodgers are averaging just 2.7 runs over their last seven games. The Rockies have struggled to score runs on the road scoring just 3.8 runs per game. Derek Lowe put his struggles behind him in his last outing by giving up just one run in seven innings of work. Take the under.
         

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Nelly
         
Milwaukee – over Arizona

Jeff Suppan has allowed just three runs in nearly 30 innings pitched at home this season. The Brewers are back over .500 and the pitching staff is putting it all together as the bullpen owns a 1.29 ERA in the last ten games with Gagne and Turnbow out of the picture.

Milwaukee is 5-1 in the current home stand and the Diamondbacks are slumping with losses in five of the last seven games. On the season Arizona is just 11-13 in home games and the Brewers are starting to get back some of the swagger that carried them to an incredible home record last season. Arizona is actually 2-8 in the last ten road games and Doug Davis was hit hard in his last outing.

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Bob Akmens

3* DETROIT -240 vs Pittsburgh

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Robert Ferringo

3-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (-140) over Cincinnati
Bronson Arroyo is making his third start in the last seven days. In his career he’s been solid on three day’s rest, but asking him to do it twice in one week is a bit of a reach, in my opinion. Especially when he’s facing the hottest lineup in the Majors. The Reds are just 3-12 in their last 15 road games and are 6-20 in Arroyo’s last 26 road starts. The Phillies have some steam right now and are 20-6 in their last 26 Game 1’s. Further, the Phillies are 7-1 in Kookie Kendrick’s last eight starts and 12-5 in his last 17 home starts. We will be looking for a lot of runs here, but I think the Reds are due for a letdown after a wild and emotional home series over the weekend.

1-Unit Play. Take Baltimore (-105) over Boston
It was right around this time last year that Jeremy Guthrie got hot. I'm looking for a similar run from him this season and he's looked sharp recently. Guthrie has a 2.70 ERA in his four career starts against the Red Sox, who I think we can catch looking forward to tomorrow's series with the first-place Devil Rays. Tim Wakefield is just 2-10 in his last 12 road starts and I think the Orioles manage to get one in this series.

1-Unit Play. Take San Francisco (-105) over New York Mets
I'm playing against Oliver Perez here and fading the Mets after their Sunday Night Baseball win over the Dodgers last night. The Giants have been playing better ball lately and I'm a fan of Jon Sanchez's work. I do worry about how well the Mets hit lefties, but I think the late night travel to face a "seemingly" inferior team could trip them up today.

1-Unit Play. Take St. Louis (-175) over Pittsburgh
1-Unit Play. Take St. Louis (-1.5, +120) over Pittsburgh
St. Louis at home. Pittsburgh on the road. Cardinals crushing lefties. Gorzy being a mess. Wainwright against the Bucs. Yup, there's a lot of things to like here. The Bucs are 11-29 on the road, have lost 7 of Tom Gorzelanny's last eight road starts, and are 20-44 in the last 64 games against the Cards. The Cardinals are 10-1 in Wainwright's last 11 home starts, are 15-7 at home against a southpaw, are 4-1 against Gorzy, and are 4-1 backing Wainwright against Pittsburgh.

1-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (-130) over Florida

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Louie Mayo

MLB
(5*) 29-32 -39.75 Yankees -150
(3*) 31-31 -23.41 Milwaukee -120
(1*) 37-27 +5.79 Dodgers -170

AFL 18-22
(50*) NY -1 1/2

NHL
(40*) 117-96 Detroit -1 1/2 +135
(20*) 97-110 OVER 5 -120

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Ben Burns #1 NHL TOTAL OF THE YEAR!!

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Detroit Red Wings
Pick: Total:Over

I'm playing on the Penguins and Red Wings to finish OVER the total. I successfully played on the 'under' in the first game of this series. That game had a total of 5.5, as did the next game. After those games, both at Detroit, stayed below the number, the over/under line dropped to five for the two games at Pittsburgh. Tonight, the series has shifted back to Detroit, yet the total has remained at five. While the 'under' has gone 3-0-1 through the first four games, with this being an elimination game, I feel that the OVER offers us excellent value. The Penguins only played three road games with totals of five this season. All three games finished above then number. Looking back further and we find the OVER at 58-43 (excluding pushes) during the past dozen years when the Penguins played a road game with a total of five or less. During the same stretch, the Wings have seen the OVER go a highly profitable 84-58 (excluding pushes) when playing a home game with a total of five or less, including a 9-6 mark this season. Through the first four games, this series has had a number of similarities to last year's Stanley Cup Finals. In that 2007 series, like this year, the Western Conference representative (Anaheim) began the series by "holding serve" and winning both the first two games on home ice. Like the Wings were in the first two games on their home ice this year, the Ducks were dominant defensively in those first two games, holding a high-powered Ottawa attack to just two combined goals (2 and 0) in those two games. Those two games saw just six combined goals scored, one less than the seven which were scored in the first two games at Detroit this season. The similarities don't end there though. Like this season, the Eastern Conference representative (Ottawa) returned home, down 0-2, and managed to win Game 3. Once again, like this season, the team from the Western Conference responded by winning Game 4 on the road, to take a 3-1 lead. So, what happened in Game 5? The Ducks won the Cup and the teams combined for a whopping eight goals. Look for history to repeat itself once again, as the Penguins and Wings play the highest-scoring game of their series tonight. *Playoff TOY

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

PlusLineSports

Los Angeles Angels -1.5

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Black Magic Sports

1 Unit on Colorado Rockies +150

The L.A. Dodgers have lost six of their previous seven games, including Sunday's 6-1 setback to the New York Mets.  The Rockies have been bad, but they should not be this hefty of an underdog Monday.  Derek Lowe is just 2-5 with a  4.52 ERA this season.  Lowe has a losing record with a 5.33 ERA in 14 career starts against Colorado.  The Dodgers are 11-27 against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.  Lowe has lost each of his last 3 starts against Colorado, allowing a ridiculous 13 earned runs through 15 innings.  Lowe no longer knows how to shut this team down.  22-year-old rookie Greg Reynolds picks up his first win of the season here.  Cash in with Colorado as the underdog.

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Black Widow Sports

1* on Atlanta Braves -149

Atlanta is 22-7 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in home games this season.  Betting the Braves at home this year has made their backers a ton of money on the season.  Atlanta is 11-1 (+11.3 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.  The Braves are struggling, but they know they need this series with Florida to get right back into the NL East race.  Scott Olsen is winless in his last 3 starts with a 7.54 ERA to show for it.  Olsen is 2-4 with a 6.81 ERA lifetime against the Braves.  For whatever reason, Olsen gets intimidated by the Braves as indicated by the numbers he puts up against them.  Jo-Jo Reyes allowed just 1 earned run on 3 hits to pick up the victory the last time he faced the Marlins.  Take the Braves on the Money Line.

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Info Plays

3* on Pittsburgh Pirates +170

We’ll give Pittsburgh a great shot to win at St. Louis tonight with the value we are getting here.  Play On - Any team (PITTSBURGH) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 6.50 over his last 10 starts.  This is a 57-32 ML System hitting 64% since 1997.  Tom Gorzellany is giving up just over 5 hits per start.  The problem is that he is walking too many hitters.  He has been better over his last 3 starts, allowing just 2 walks or less in two out of the three.  Gorzellany features a 3.41 ERA in 5 career starts against St. Louis.  Bet Pittsburgh on the road.

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Bob Akmens

Philadelphia Phillies -140

This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 162 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.

The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.

Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows –

Here we have a matchup between the Reds – about as close to the dictionary-definition of mediocrity as you can get with their overall 28-29 record - and the now first-place Phils who have passed the Marlins and taken over the NL East lead.

But that Reds record shows the danger in not breaking things down further. Are the Reds just mediocre on the road? Hardly. They stink. 9-19 is not mediocre – it’s horrendous.

And the Phils didn’t get to where they are by backing-into first-place; they got there because they’ve scored 70 (!) runs in winning 6 of their last 7 games.

Pitching-wise, this is a mismatch. Brandon Arroyo and the Reds have lost 8 of his last 10 starts away from home.

Kyle Kendrick has a perfect 2-0 lifetime record vs the Reds and more importantly old ‘mo on his side: the Phils have won 7 of his last 8 starts overall.

Does the possibility that Junior Griffey might finally hit number 600 to beat you scare you? Oddly enough, he hit numbers 200, 300, 400, and 500 all on the road. But…there’s always a but, huh?...he’s only hit 4 dingers in 130 lifetime AB’s vs the Phils. So, statistically, this is not a big worry.

Go with the PHILLIES -1.40

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Mike Rose

PADRES +150

Carlos Zambrano will toe the rubber for the 13th time this season after tossing a gem his last time out against the LA Dodgers. He didn’t receive the victory for his effort, but he still threw eight innings of one-run ball in the Cubs 2-1 extra innings win. Overall this season, Big “Z” is 7-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He’s been just as good on the road going 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA allowing 23 hits and seven earned runs with a K/BB ratio of 20/9 in 28 total innings of work. He’s dominated the Padres throughout his career posting a 5-1 mark with a 2.19 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in eight overall starts.

Cha Seung Baek will make his debut as a starter for the Padres this evening after Shawn Estes broke his left thumb after falling in the SF Giants dugout over the weekend. Baek threw well for the Seattle Mariners last season before an injury put him on the DL for the remainder of the year. He struck out the side in his first relief appearance on Friday, and Bud Black stated he can throw 80+ pitches if it gets to that point in this start. He’s never faced the Cubs in his brief MLB career.

Chicago is 8-3 in Game 1 of a series after winning the day before, while the Padres ring in at 5-8 in the first game of a new series after losing its last time out. Chicago’s also 23-14 against righties this year, while the Padres have struggled against right-handers posting a 19-24 overall mark. That said, the Padres have been playing better ball of late (6-4 L/10), and they’ve dominated the Cubs at Petco Park winning 6 of the L/7 overall meetings. Take a stab with the large home underdogs to steal one from the Cubs who seem to be a much different team on the road.

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