MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

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Josh Dean

Det/Oak    UNDER 8   

LAA/Sea    UNDER 8.5

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New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins

In yesterday's meeting between these two teams the Twins beat the Yankees 5-1. Both teams are paying well as of late, as the Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 games, while the Twins are 6-4 in their last 10 games. The Twins are in 2nd place in the AL Central division 1 game back of the Chicago White Sox, while the Yankees are in 4th place in the AL East 6.5 games back of the Tampa bay Rays. The Yankees have played well recently, but the other 3 teams ahead of them in the division have also played well, so the Yankees have not gained any ground. Taking the mound for the Yankees is Andy Pettitte (5-5 4.11 ERA), who in his last outing went 6 innings giving up only 2 earned runs in the win. Pettitte is pitching better after a horrendous 0-4 start. In yesterdays loss the Yankees scored 1 run on 8 hits and left 8 men on base and their only run came on Derek Jeter's solo home run. Taking the mound for the Twins is Livian Hernandez (6-2 4.60 ERA), who has been a workhorse for the Twins and in his last outing went 6 innings giving up 6 earned runs in a no decision. In yesterdays win over the Yankees the Twins scored 5 runs on 9 hits and left 7 men on base

Staff Pick: The pitching match up has to go to the Yankees, as Pettitte had pitched well in his last few starts, while Hernandez is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Twins need to win this game to salvage a split for the series. Pettitte also seems to pitch well against the Twins, as he is 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last 3 starts against them. Pettitte has to be careful of Justin Morneau (.308 10 HR 42 RBI) who has been swinging a hot bat lately. The Yankees are a much better fielding team that the Twins, as they only have 30 errors on the year, while the Twins have 43, which is the 4th most in the majors. Both teams have almost identical stats, in terms of batting average and runs scored, so this game will come down to which pitcher throws a better game. Hernandez will not blow people over, but he has the advantage of pitching to a lineup that has not seen him often, as he was in the NL for the first 12 years in the league. Look for Pettitte to throw a solid game and for the Yanks to jump all over Hernandez, who has been struggling lately, as the Yankees will win this game and the series.

Yankees 8 Twins 4

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Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on Indians/Rangers UNDER 10 Runs

The Under is 23-8-2 in the Rangers last 33 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 7-3 in Rangers last 10 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  The Under is 10-3 in the Indians last 13 road games, 11-1 in the Indians last 12 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, 6-1 in the Indians last 7 vs. the American League West, and 25-10 in their last 35 overall.  The Under is 5-0 in Laffey's last 5 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5, 4-0 in Laffey's last 4 road starts, and 8-2 in Laffey's last 10 starts overall.  With Laffey on the hill to shut down the Rangers and with the Indians lack of scoring production on the road, we have ourselves a solid unders situation here.

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John Ryan

New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants    
Play: San Francisco Giants   

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on SF - Mets had a big win last night in Queens, but now they have traveled 3500 miles and have to play tonight in SF. Tough task and also tougher with a largely inconsistent starter in Perez. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 60-20 and has made 42.3 units since 2002 for 75% success. Play on NL home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season and is now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. My Ai Simulator had the Mets and Perez correctly identified as a 7* Sunday Night Monster winner at the Bronx on May 18th, but since that great start he has been borderline minor league quality. In his last 2 starts he has allowed 9 ER with 4 HR in 11 IP. Moreover, he is 0-4 when starting against SF with an ERA of 5.83 and a WHIP of 1.536.SF starter Sanchez has been far better posting a 2.84 ERA over his last 3 starts and a 2.78 ERA in home starts. Perez is in several weak roles for this game noting that he is 4-10 (-11.3 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons; 2-9 (-10.9 Units) against the money line versus NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons; 4-9 (-11.1 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opposition by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons; 1-9 -10.6 units in June starts over the past 3 seasons. Take SF Giants.

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VEGAS SPORTS PICS

Atlanta -120**

Minnesota +130*

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Jack Jones

Philadelphia Phillies

Kyle Kendrick is a pitcher that doesn't give up a lot of home runs, and the Reds are more of a power team who need those blasts to score runs. The Reds are 0-8 (-8.7 Units) against the money line on road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season. Bronson Arroyo has been bad on the road this year with a 5.12 ERA, but for his career against NL teams who score more than 4.8 runs/game, he's 8.26 when he's the visiting starter. I like the Phillies to win this one tonight.

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MATT FARGO

New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: San Francisco Giants

The Mets finished their homestand strong, winning five of their final six games after dropping the opener against Florida. Now it is back to the west coast where they went 3-3 in their last trip out there. This is not a very good spot however as they are coming off that game last night that did not end until 11:00 ET and then it was a long night of travel. Obviously the time difference helps but this will be a lethargic team come tonight. New York is just 11-16 on the road this season.

The Giants snagged the last game of their series with the Padres and it was hopefully a momentum building victory. San Francisco has actually been playing pretty well, going 7-4 in its last 11 games and the victory on Sunday snapped a seven-game home losing streak, which is another reason why that win was so important. The offense, non-existent to start the season, is coming around now as it has averaged 5.2 rpg over the last 13 games. This after averaging just 4.4 rpg to start the year.

Jonathan Sanchez has put together three straight quality games and is pitching at a seasons best right now following two of his shortest outings of the year prior to that. Since surrendering seven runs in his opening start against the Brewers, he has allowed three runs or fewer in all but one of his last 10 starts. His ERA is a solid 3.45 over those 10 outings with the Giants going 8-2 in those games. This is his first start ever against the Mets which is a solid pitching advantage.

New York counters with the ever inconsistent Oliver Perez. After opening the season with a quality start, he went six straight outings without recording another one. He tossed two more but his last two starts were dreadful, posting a 7.36 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. His WHIP on the season is 1.53 and it can be blamed on his poor control which has plagued him throughout his career. That WHIP is 8th worst in the league for qualified starters. Perez is 0-4 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in eight career starts against the Giants. Play San Francisco Giants 1.5 Units

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Ben Burns

Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics

Despite a win yesterday, the Tigers are still a dismal 17-29 vs. right-handers. Tonight, they'll be facing one of the top right-handers (when he's healthy) in the game. Harden is 3-0 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.240 WHIP this season. Over his last three starts, he's gone 2-0 with a stellar 1.80 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Conversely, Rogers is 1-1 (Tigers were 1-2) his last three starts, recording an ugly 6.06 ERA and 1.898 WHIP. For the season, he has a 5.88 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Consider laying the price with Harden and the A's.

Play on: Oakland

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EZWINNERS

MLB

1 STAR: (952) PHILADELPHIA (-$136) over Cincinnati
(Action)
(Risking $136 to win $100)

1 STAR: (956) MILWAUKEE (-$131) over Arizona
(Listing Suppan only)
(Risking $131 to win $100)

1 STAR: (960) SAN DIEGO (+$160) over Chicago
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $160)

1 STAR: (971) DETROIT (+$144) over Oakland
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $145)

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Ferrall

NL FREE B's FOR MON

CUBS -185 on ML over Padres--Take Chicago because the Padres suck !   Zambrano works them over for his 8th win.  Cubs just finished a 7-0 homestand and have the best record in baseball.   Zambrano has won his last three road starts.

DODGERS -160 on ML over Rockies--Derek Lowe handles Colorado at the Revine.  The Rockies have dropped 7 straight games.  They've lost 12 in a row on the road.  They've lost 5 of 6 to the Dodgers this season already.


AL FREE B's FOR MON

TIGERS +150 on ML over A's--Kenny Rogers never loses to the A's, particularly in Oakland.  He's 5-0 in his last 5 starts at the Coliseum.   He's 23-1 in his last 41 starts in Oakland.  He was 15-0 as a starter for the A's when he pitched for them in 98-99.  He's 7-0 in his last 8 starts against the A's.  Geez, you've got to pounce on this bet

Angels -130 on ML over Mariners--The Angels keep winning but they aren't scoring many runs lately.  The M's have dropped 9 of 12.  Santana beats Washburn to earn his 8th win.

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LT Profits

Pittsburgh Pirates +155

The poor performance of Tom Gorzelanny of the Pittsburgh Pirates this season has been a mystery to us, but he has pitched well vs. the St. Louis Cardinals and we feel he will do so again at this very nice price.

We were very high on Gorzelanny coming into this season, but he has been a major disappointment to say the least at 4-5 with a 7.38 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in 46.1 innings. However, even in this miserable campaign, he had one of his better starts vs. these Cardinals allowing three runs and only two hits in five innings, the fourth tine in five career starts against St. Louis that Gorzo has allowed three runs or less.

Conversely, Adam Wainwright is having a fine year for the Cardinals at 5-2 with a 2.86 ERA. However, we question whether Wainwright is as good as that ERA would indicate, and once he is out of the game, the St. Louis bullpen has been a real adventure lately, particularly in this series.

Despite the apparent talent discrepancy between these clubs, they have split their eight head-t0-head meetings so far this season, and we look for the underdog Pirates to gain a split of this four-game series tonight.

Pick: Pirates +155


Seattle Mariners +115

Not much has gone on for the Seattle Mariners this season, but they did score five runs in each of the last two games, a figure that would be good enough to beat the Los Angeles Angels right now.

This is because the Angels are mired in a terrible offensive slump, as they are batting an atrocious .215 as a team over their last 10 games, and they have now failed to score more than four runs in 12 consecutive contests. New their starter Ervin Santana did toss a Complete Game three-hit gem vs. the Detroit Tigers in his last start, but he has three consecutive bad outings prior to that and the last time he pitched in Seattle, he recorded just one out while allowing five earned runs, four hits and two walks.

Now Seattle starter Jarrod Washburn is having a terrible year at 2-6 with a 6.54 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, but he may have turned a corner in his last start vs. the New York Yankees when he surrendered just two runs and four hits in six innings. Besides, the Angels offense could make just about any pitcher look good in its current state.

Ultimately, we feel that the Mariners will give Washburn more run support here than the Halos are capable of giving Santana, and therein lies the reason for this upset.

Pick: Mariners +115

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Professional Gamblers Newsletter

BRAVES -134 over Marlins (Reyes-Olsen)
BREWERS -131 over Diamondbacks (Suppan-Davis)
ROCKIES +154 at Dodgers (Reynolds-Lowe) (OR +1.5 -152)
Yankees at Twins OVER 9.5 -113 (Pettitte-Hernandez)
ATHLETICS -1.5 +141 over Tigers (Harden-Rogers) (OR -155)

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BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS

Play on: Atlanta/Florida 'Over' the total

What a great spot to fly high on Monday night. The improving Braves catch lefty Olsen of Florida who seems to be going through a "dead arm" period, nothing serious as most starting hurlers have this affliction at some time during the season. So, I expect with the Braves at home, the score board should be lit with runs galore. Further to which, the Braves lefty Reyes is off his best start of the season, but he has not faced a "hitters" lineup like Florida in sometime. Remember too, the Fish are 6-0-1 OVER vs. LHP, 8-0-2 OVER on Monday, 6-0-1 OVER as an underdog and 4-0 OVER after a loss.

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Brian Hansen

New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants

As long-time followers know Hansen likes to go against the grain when a situation warrants it and that is certainly the case here. The New York Mets are definitely the popular team (or public choice) in this match-up as they open up this three game set at San Francisco. However, this is truly a tough spot for the Mets. They are coming off of a big home win over the Dodgers last night on Sunday Night Baseball and they then had to hop in a plane and fly cross country for this game. As for the Giants, theyve been resting at home as they wrapped up their series with the Padres yesterday afternoon by notching the win at AT & T Park. The situational edge here definitely favors the Giants! Want more Take a look at the pitchers in this match-up. Its a battle of southpaws but it looks like Jesus Sanchez of the Giants should have a big edge over Oliver Perez of the Mets. Perez is 0-4 with a 5.83 ERA in his career against the Giants while Sanchez has only pitched in two short relief outings against the Mets in his career. As a result, the Mets hitters are not familiar with Sanchez at all while the Giants will take advantage of Perez and his history of struggles against San Francisco at AT & T Park! Sanchez has allowed three earned runs or less in nine of his last ten starts and his solid work continues here against a fatigued Mets team. That allows the Giants to score the home dog upset!

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Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on LA Dodgers -151

The Rockies have been pitiful on the road all season long.  They are 9-26 in their last 35 games as an underdog, 7-23 in their last 30 road games, and 6-20 in their last 26 games as a road underdog.  The Rockies are also a terrible 3-18 in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Dodgers are playing decent baseball despite some injury problems and they'll be in good shape tonight at home behind Lowe.  The Dodgers are 13-3 in Lowe's last 16 home starts vs. a team with a losing record, 9-4 in Lowe's last 13 starts as a favorite, and 21-8 in Lowe's last 29 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.  The Rockies are 18-42 in the last 60 meetings in Los Angeles.  All Dodgers here.

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BIG AL's RED-HOT MONDAY NIGHT BASEBALL BLOWOUT!

Braves

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Robert Ferringo

I am definitely am very wary of this play, but there is tremendous value on a very good home team (Texas) against a floundering road team (Cleveland). The Indians have dumped 13 of their last 16 games and just lost a series at Kansas City. The Rangers are hot, and I think they can get to Aaron Laffey. Doug Mathis shut down the Indians last week. That means he's due to get rocked today. But Cleveland's definition of "rocked" right now is about five runs. I think the Rangers can top that.


TEXAS RANGERS +135

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Scott Delaney

It's really hard to ignore the red-hot Rangers, especially with them playing in Arlington. You'd think Aaron Laffey would get more respect against Doug Mathis, but the fact is the oddsmakers are not fooling anyone with this number. It's this high because of how well Texas is playing - it's the top-hitting team in the league - and the Tribe might be the most disappointing team on the junior circuit. Cleveland's pitching staff may rank among the best in the American League with a 3.65 ERA, but it has allowed 20 runs in the last four games. The Tribe has also dropped 12 of 15, it's lost five straight series and it has posted a 4.74 ERA while their opponents have hit .290. Fact is, with an anemic offense like this one, I'll dive into the unknown with Texas young right-hander, who came on strong at Triple-A Oklahoma before being called up, and is due to produce a solid outing for the Rangers. Things will be balanced offensively, as I expect Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley to continue their assault from the plate. And if they spark the lineup, it'll certainly provide enough momentum for Mathis to do his thing in on the rubber. Lay the chalk.

3* TEXAS RANGERS

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Michael Cannon

Boston at BALTIMORE

Take the Red Sox for the road win tonight over the Orioles.

Boston is going for the four-game series sweep over the O?s, and the way the Red Sox offense is clicking the Orioles really don?t have a chance here tonight.

The BoSox have scored 20 runs in winning the first three games of the series, and if they can get just a couple of runs tonight they?ll have a great chance of winning.

That?s because Baltimore starter Jeremy Guthrie has received little to no run support at all this year.

The right-hander has posted a 2.18 ERA over his last three starts, but is 0-3 while getting only two total runs of support.

Take Boston as they grab the road win.

2* BOSTON

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WUNDERDOG

Game: Cleveland at Texas
Pick: Texas +126

The Cleveland Indians are in dire straights. A team which was loaded with offense last year, is hitting just .234 as a team - more than 10 points lower than any other AL team. The last 11 on the road have produced just 27 runs or less than 2.5 per game. That makes it hard for any pitcher, including Aaron Laffey, to find the win column. Not too many pitchers with a 1.59 ERA own a 3-3 record, but the Indians simply can't score. The Rangers have found some magic as they have now gone 20-11 over a 31 game stretch, which includes six consecutive home series wins. Here we have hot vs cold and with a nice juicy dog, it's always worth a play.

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