MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

SPORTS ADVISORS

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Arizona (32-25) at Milwaukee (29-28)

The Brewers try to continue their winning homestand when they send veteran righty Jeff Suppan (3-4, 3.93 ERA) to the mound at Miller Park to take on the N.L. West-leading Diamondbacks and former Brewer Doug Davis (2-2, 4.57).

Milwaukee has won five of six games on this homestand, including Sunday’s 10-1 victory that capped a three-game weekend sweep of the Astros. Meanwhile, Arizona snapped a five-game losing streak with back-to-back wins Saturday (4-0) and Sunday (5-0) at home against the Nationals.

The Brewers took five of seven from Arizona last season and have won 10 of the last 14 series clashes in Milwaukee.

Davis is 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA on the road this season but got drilled in his last start, giving up six runs on nine hits in five innings of an 11-3 home loss to the Giants. Davis has only seen his former team twice in his career, both last season, and went 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA. He allowed a combined eight runs in eight innings of work. He got a no-decision in Arizona’s 5-2 road win in July, then took the loss in a 9-0 loss at home a month later.

Suppan has been brilliant at Miller Park, going 2-0 with a 0.93 ERA in four starts, including Wednesday’s eight-inning gem against Atlanta, as shutout the Braves on four hits in a 1-0 victory. In fact, Suppan has not allowed more than one earned run in any of his four home outings, with Milwaukee winning three of those contests.

For his career, Suppan is 2-3 with a 3.86 ERA in six starts covering 32 2/3 innings of work against Arizona. He faced the Diamondbacks back on Aug. 22 and gave up three runs in seven innings, but lost 3-2 in the desert. Arizona is 4-2 all-time in games in which Suppan has started.

Arizona is 15-6 in Davis’ last 21 starts and 4-1 in his last five Monday outings. As a team, the DBacks are just 9-20 in their last 29 on the road against right-handed pitching, 2-8 in their last 10 on the road overall and 1-4 in their last five against the N.L. Central.

The Brewers are 7-1 in Suppan’s last eight at home but just 2-5 in his last seven overall and 1-6 the last seven times he’s pitched in a series opener. As a team, Milwaukee is on streaks of 50-21 against left-handed pitching, 5-1 on Mondays, 6-2 against the N.L. West and 5-2 in series openers.

The over is 10-2 in Davis’ last 12 starts overall, 5-1 in his last six on the road and 7-0 in his last seven when going on four days’ rest, but the under is 4-0-1 in Davis’ last five on Mondays. Meanwhile, Suppan sports nothing but “under” runs, including 6-0 in series openers, 4-0 against teams with a winning record, 4-0 at home and 5-0 overall.

For the Brewers as a team, the under is on runs of 6-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 8-1-1 against left-handed starters, 13-3-1 in series openers and 8-3-1 on Mondays. However, for Arizona, the over is 6-2 in its last eight on Mondays and 7-3 in its last 10 on the road against right-handed starters. Finally, the under is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these clubs in Milwaukee.

ATS ADVANTAGE:               NONE


AMERICAN LEAGUE

N.Y. Yankees (28-28) at Minnesota (29-27)

The Twins send Livan Hernandez (6-2, 4.60 ERA) to the hill in the finale of a four-game set with the Yankees, who are set to hand the ball to Andy Pettitte (5-5, 4.11) inside the Metrodome.

Minnesota took Sunday’s game 5-1 after dropping one-run decisions Friday (6-5) and Saturday (7-6 in 12 innings). The Twins are 5-2 in their last seven overall, but they snapped a four-game home losing skid with yesterday’s win. Also, Minnesota is just 3-8 in its last 11 at home against southpaw starters, but 6-2 in its last eight on Mondays.

Despite Sunday’s setback, which halted a three-game winning streak, New York has won eight of its last 11 overall and five of six against teams with a winning record. The Yankees are also 5-2 in their last seven games in Minnesota and 37-15 in the last 52 matchups against the Twins regardless of venue.

The Twins are 9-3 in Hernandez’s 12 starts this season, and he’s 4-0 with a 4.23 ERA in six games at home. The veteran right-hander has been knocked around lately, giving up 14 runs (11 earned) in his last 11 1/3 innings over two starts, a 9-8 Minnesota win at Kansas City and an 8-7 home loss to Texas. Prior to that two-game stretch, Hernandez had allowed three earned runs or less in four straight starts.

For his career, Hernandez is 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA in three starts against the Yankees. Last year while with the Diamondbacks, he surrendered seven runs on nine hits in four innings of a 7-2 loss at Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees have won Pettitte’s last two starts as he’s allowed an identical two runs on eight hits over a combined 12 2/3 innings in wins over the Mariners (13-2 at home) and Orioles (4-2 on the road). On the road this season, Pettitte is 4-2 with a 3.72 ERA.

Pettitte is 8-5 with a 3.52 ERA in 17 lifetime starts against the Twins, and the Yankees have won eight of his last 10 starts against them, including four in a row overall and four of his last five in the Metrodome. The last time the veteran southpaw faced Minnesota was April 2007 when he scattered four hits and a walk over six shutout innings of a 10-1 road victory.

Prior to winning Pettitte’s last two starts, New York had lost five straight games behind Pettitte, But otherwise Joe Girardi’s squad sports positive trends of 14-4 with Pettitte pitching on Monday, 10-3 with him on the road, and 19-7 when he goes up against A.L. Central squads.

For Pettitte, the under is 20-7 in his last 27 starts overall, 13-3 in his last 16 when he goes on four days’ rest, 7-1 in his last eight versus teams with a winning record and 7-0 in his last seven on the highway. On the flip side, the over is 8-1 in Hernandez’s last nine starts overall and 5-0 in his last five outings inside the Metrodome.

The over is 6-3 in the Yankees’ last nine overall, but otherwise the under is on streaks for the team of 10-4-1 against A.L. Central squads, 5-1-1 on Mondays and 7-1 on the road against right-handed starters. For the Twins, the over is 9-4 in their last 13 overall, 5-2-1 in their last seven against A.L. East foes and 6-1 in their last seven at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES

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Lucky Leprechaun Sports    

PHILADELPHIA -138 over Cincinnati:

The Reds are 1-10 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and  7-20 in Arroyos last 27 starts as an underdog, while the Phillies are 20-6 in their last 26 during game 1 of a series and 10-1 in Kendricks last 11 starts during game 1 of a series. The Phils have been on quite a roll winning 6 of their last 7 games and outscoring their opponents by 5.6 rpg in the process. The Phils are hitting over .310 in their last 12 games, while scoring 7.9 rpg over that span. Today they take on Arroyo, who is 4-4 with a 5.59 ERA and is 1-4 with a 5.23 ERA in 6 career starts vs the Phils. If Arroyo gets into trouble there isn't much help behind him as his bullpen has a 5.32 ERA on the road.  Cincy can play some ball at home as evidenced by their 3 games sweep over the Braves, but on the road this team is bad. To go along with a bad bullpen, the starters havs a 5.29 ERA, they hit just .259 on the road and score just 4.3 rpg, compiling a sorry 19-9 record away from home. Kyle Kendrick has done a fine job for the Phils so far, going 4-2 with a 4.84 ERA, including a 2-1 mark with a 3.29 ERA at home. Kendrick is 2-0 vs the Reds even though his ERA is high at 6.55. It won't matter if kendrick gives up a few runs, cause the Phils can outscore anyone right now and they will put enough runs on the board here to take game 1 of this 4 game set.     

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Robert Ross

Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

Nice price on the visitors. ARIZONA is 32-17 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons and starter DAVIS is 22-10 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record) Meanwhile MILWAUKEE is 21-33 against the money line in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse since 1997 while starter SUPPAN is 21-34 against the money line in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record) Take Arizona!

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Marc Lawrence

Play On: L.A. Angels w/Santana vs. Washburn

When the Angels send Ervin Santana to the hill against Jarrod Washburn and the Mariners in the first of this three game series in Seattle this evening they'll do so knowing Santana has reeled of six straight team start wins in a row against the M's. With Santana owning a 6-2 mark with a 2.33 ERA at night this season, and Washburn just 2-7 with a 7.14 ERA under the lights this year, look for Washburn to drop to 6-15 in Mondays here tonight.

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Jim Feist

ARI D'backs and MIL Brewers.
Take Over

Arizona is on a 5-2 run over the total and lefty Doug Davis is prone to walking batters. He's walked 13 in 21 innings, a problem last season, as well. You can't walk batters in Milwaukee without getting hurt, a great hitter's park. The Brewers offense has finally go on track scoring 9 runs in two games against the Astros. Starter Jeff Suppan has average stuff, so look for plenty of runs in this park.Play the Diamondbacks/Brewers over the total!

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Vegas Experts

Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies

After taking over the top spot in the division, the Phillies welcome in the Cincinnati Reds, who come in off a three-game weekend sweep of another NL East club, Atlanta. However, that was at home, now the Reds are on the road where they are just 9-19 this season. Starter Bronson Arroyo has seen his team lose 14 of his last 20 road starts while Philly starter Kyle Kendrick is 2 for 2 lifetime against Cincy and has a 14-3 TSR when the total is 10 or higher.

Play on: Philadelphia

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DUNKEL

MLB

Florida at Atlanta   
After a rough road trip in which they lost five of six, the Braves look to bounce back at home tonight where they have a 4-1 record when the run total is listed between 10 and 10 1/2.  Atlanta is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Braves favored by 2.  Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-125).   Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, JUNE 2

Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 16.405; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.404
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-135); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+125); Under

Game 953-954: Florida at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Olsen) 14.091; Atlanta (Reyes) 16.103
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-125); Over

Game 955-956: Arizona at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 15.532; Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.222
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+115); Under

Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Gorzelanny) 13.855; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.640
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 3; 10
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-175); Over

Game 959-960: Chicago Cubs at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 16.217; San Diego (Baek) 14.868
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-175); Over

Game 961-962: Colorado at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Reynolds) 13.367; LA Dodgers (Lowe) 14.762
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-160); Over

Game 963-964: NY Mets at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Perez) 14.793; San Francisco (Sanchez) 15.500
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+105); Under


Game 965-966: Boston at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 14.436; Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.766
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+100); Under

Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.401; Minnesota (Hernandez) 14.240
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Over

Game 969-970: Cleveland at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Laffey) 15.828; Texas (Mathis) 13.693
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-145); 10
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-145); Under

Game 971-972: Detroit at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Rogers) 15.699; Oakland (Harden) 15.130
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+150); Under

Game 973-974: LA Angels at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 14.478; Seattle (Washburn) 15.192
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+110); Under


NHL

Pittsburgh at Detroit
The Red Wings look to close out the Stanley Cup tonight at home where they are 18-7 this season when the total is listed at 5 or less.  Detroit is the pick (-230) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 2.  Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-230).  Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, JUNE 2

Game 9-10: Pittsburgh at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.051; Detroit 13.890
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-230); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-230); Under

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Alex Smart

Atlanta Braves -134

Scott Olson (4-2,3.65) the Florida Marlins starting hurler tonight against the Atlanta Braves , has been suffering with a fatigued arm of late ,which has resulted in reduced velocity, making him susceptible to a beat down. Jo Jo Reyes the Braves 23 year old starter, is off one of his best performances of his short mlb career, last time out, and I expect he will continue his upward momentum in this spot. Considering the pitching matchup and the Marlins current form that has seen them lose 7 of their L/9 road games, it will be an easy decision to back a host Braves team, with a 22-7 (.758) record at Turner Field. Final notes & Key Trends: Olsen has garnered a bloated 7.56 ERA in his L/3 starts. Play on the Braves

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James Patrick Sports

Red Wings vs. Penguins

Our selection for Monday in Stanley Cup Play-off Action is Penguins-Red Wings UNDER the TOTAL as we expect the veteran Red Wings to respond in front of their home crowd and finish their Championship run with a punishing defensive effort and another outstanding goaltending effort from series MVP Osgood. Pittsburgh has gone Under the Total in 10 of 12 road contests and 21 of 26 on Monday Night action. These teams have gone Under the posted total in 5 of 6 and at Detroit they have played Under in 5 of 7. It’s all over in Motown as Hockey Town wins another Stanley Cup.

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Scott Spreitzer

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Under

Carlos Zambrano is having a Cy Young caliber season for the Cubs. Now, he gets to face one of the worst offenses in baseball in one of the best pitchers' parks the sport has ever seen. I wouldn't be surprised if he throws a gem, possibly a shutout. The Padres offense is that bad and Zambrano will be that tough to deal with in this park. The Over/Under comes down to how much the Cubs will score off San Diego spot starter Cha Seung Baek. It's a tough park to score in, and the Cubs will be traveling across time zones without a day off. Baek should be able to deliver a reasonable effort before handing things off to the bullpen. It's been a good year for Unders in this park when there's at least one ace caliber starter on the mound. We have that tonight. We also have a Chicago team that's only played eight Overs in 23 road games even though this is their first visit to one of the California pitchers' parks. The Under in the Cubs/Padres game is the play.

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Big Al McMordie

New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants    
Play: New York Mets   

At 10:10pm our selection is on the New York Mets over the San Francisco Giants. With the Phillies seemingly over their early-season funk, and having won nine of their last twelve games, the Mets are really going to have to pick it up if they are going to compete with them for the NL East title. The Mets will get what is hopefully a big boost this week as veteran righthander Pedro Martinez is expected to return and pitch on Tuesday against this Giants team. But for tonight, the Mets will have to rely on veteran lefty Oliver Perez. Although Perez has not pitched that well lately, he has been getting some pretty reliable run support and New York has won three of his last four starts. Perez also has better numbers on the road (3-2 with a 4.00 ERA) than at home, and has only given up 30 hits in 36 innings pitched away from Shea Stadium. The Mets have also dominated the Giants at AT&T Park lately, taking four of the last six games played there between these two squads. The Mets' bullpen has been sensational this season so all they really need out of Perez is about six decent innings and the bats and relievers should be able to handle it from there. Take the Mets.

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Karl Garrett

Cincinnati at PHILADELPHIA -140 

The G-Man just loves what he is seeing out of Philadelphia these days, as the Phillies have taken over the top spot in the NL East with yesterday's win over Florida, as the Phils imrpoved to 6-1 their last 7 games, and 18-12 this season at home.

Cincy just swept the Braves, but that series was played at home where the Reds are 19-10. On the road, Cincy has struggled to a 9-19 mark, and the G-Man doesn't see that mark improving tonight in the City of Brotherly Love.

Bronson Arroyo is 3-1 on the road this year, but the righty's ERA is over 5 for the season, and the Phils have been tearing the cover off the ball during this homestand.

Kyle Kendrick comes into this one off 7 innings of 2 run ball in a win over Colorado his last time out, and I like him to get the support he needs to win another one in this game.

The Phillies are rolling, and the Reds haven't done squat on the road all season long.

Lay it with Philadelphia.

4* PHILADELPHIA

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Sports Gambling Hotline

Arizona at MILWAUKEE -125

Tonight we will stick with the Brewers as their homestand continues against the Diamondbacks.

Milwaukee pulled off the weekend sweep of Houston, and they have won 6 of their last 7 games overall to improve to 16-10 at home for the season.

Arizona is just 11-13 on the road this year, and starter Doug Davis was rocked in his last start, allowing 6 runs in just 5 innings of work against San Francisco.

Jeff Suppan goes for the Brew Crew, and the right-hander has allowed just 1 earned run over his last 14 innings. Suppan is also 2-0 in 4 home starts this season with a miniscule 0.93 ERA at Miller Park.

First season series meetings for these teams, and last year Milwaukee did win 5 of the 7 overall get-togethers.

Play on Milwaukee in this one.

4* MILWAUKEE

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Bobby Maxwell

N.Y. Yankees at MINNESOTA +135

Improved to 8-2 with our last 10 FREE plays on the diamond after the Mets victory over the Dodgers in New York Sunday. Today we're playing the Twins in Minnesota as they host the Yankees.

Even though his ERA isn't very good and he doesn't look very good, the Twins' Livan Hernandez gets the job done and really gets it done at home. Minnesota is 9-3 with him on the hill this season and we're going to play him to get the best of the Yankees in this one.

Hernandez (6-2, 4.60 ERA) is 4-0 at home for the Twins and even though he's been knocked around lately, this guy seems to just survive every game.

Andy Pettitte (5-5, 4.11) is on the mound for the Yankees, who won Sunday 5-1 after dropping the first two games of this four-game series. New York is just 2-5 in Pettitte's last seven starts.

Minnesota is 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog and 6-2 in their last eight Monday matchups.

Let's play the plus-money on the home team Twins in this one. Hernandez will use his magic to get a home win tonight over the Bronx Bombers.

2* MINNESOTA

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Chris Jordan

N.Y. Yankees -145 at MINNESOTA 

For Monday night we're taking the Yankees, and we're listing Andy Pettitte and Livan Hernandez.

I changed my tune about Hernandez this season a tad, as I used to always go against him. This season things are different, as the Twins are 9-3 in Hernandez’s 12 starts. Problem is, the veteran right-hander has been knocked around in his last two starts, yielding 14 runs (11 of them earned) in his last 11-1/3 innings. And the problem with that funk, is he now faces a team that’s been awfully rude to him, and that will come in looking to close out the series by avenging yesterday’s loss. In his career, Hernandez is 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA in three starts against the Bombers.

And while I believe he’ll get shelled, I don’t think the Twins will have much luck against Pettitte, who’s improved the past few weeks, pitching the Bombers in a position to win. New York has won his last two outings as he’s allowed two runs in each, scattering eight hits over a combined 12-2/3 frames. He’s been respectable with a suitcase in hand, posting a 4-2 mark on the road. The Bombers have also won eight of Pettitte’s last 10 starts against Minnesota, so let’s lay the chalk in this one.

1* YANKEES

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JEFFERSONSPORTS

MONDAY EARLY RELEASE

MILWAUKEE-131

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Scott Spreitzer's MLB 2-0 Parlay of the Week! (Includes Mismatch G.O.M.)

I'm laying the price with the Angels on Monday. Jarrod Washburn of Seattle has been struggling badly this season. His ERA for the year is 6.67. It's 6.14 at home even though Seattle plays in a great pitcher's park. In a low scoring year, those numbers stick out dramatically. He's the Matt Morris of the American League but he hasn't been cut! Erwin Santana has an ERA of 3.09 this season, and has the kind of stuff that's perfectly suited to this park, now that he's learned to pitch outside of Anaheim. Santana is showing significant signs that he's rounding into the all-around ace-type hurler that the Angels had hoped he would be. Through his first couple of seasons, Santana struggled mightily away from home, with a serious home/road dichotomy. You simply played ON Santana at home and against him on the road. But Santana has improved his road numbers this season in dramatic fashion. Tonight, he gets to face one of the league's bottom-feeders in batting average and OPS. It's a mismatch on the mound, AND it's a first place team against a last place team. The price it too low in my opinion. Note that these pitchers have faced each other once this year already, with the Halos winning 4-1 at home. Your morning newspaper shows that Los Angeles is the best road team in baseball this season. I expect another comfortable victory for them tonight. The Angels minus the price is the play.

I'm laying the price with the Brewers on Monday night. Milwaukee is finally heating up, winning three straight and seven of their last 10. Tonight, they welcome in an Arizona team who would be five games under .500 if not for the horrible NL West. Jeff Suppan is a major reason why the Brewers are playing better and no one is better on their home diamond than this veteran righthander. Suppan has allowed just THREE earned runs in four starts at Miller Park, covering 29 innings of work. That's an unheard of 0.93 ERA to go along with a 1.24 WHIP and sizzling, .216 BAA! Former Brewer Doug Davis counters for the visitors tonight. He was absolutely shelled by weak-hitting San Francisco last time out. Now, he's catching a Brewer lineup at the wrong time...one that's finding their offensive power. Meanwhile, Suppan will face a lineup that's just 1-3 in road night games against righties, scoring just 3.8 runs per game in the process. The Brewers are 15-5 in Suppan's last 20 starts in thie venue, make it 16-5 after tonight. My Major Mismatch GOM is a play on the Brewers on Monday.

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Dave Cokin

CLE Indians and TEX Rangers
Take  TEX Rangers

This is basically a rerun of Sunday's free play. The Braves had the clear advantage on the mound, but their horrendous road play combined with a Cincinnati team on a roll at home made for a very live dog release on the Reds. Tonight, the struggling Indians have an edge on the hill with Laffey vs. Texas rookie Mathis. But the Indians cannot hit a lick and they've been a poor traveler. The Rangers are in clearly better team form. The price is being set almost exclusively on the two starting pitchers, and that's creating excellent value on another home dog. I'll back the Rangers."

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JB's Computer Picks

Philadelphia Phillies -145

Oakland Athletics -165

Los Angeles Angels -130

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Kosmo

Philadelphia -135 1 unit
Milwaukee -130 1 unit
St. Louis -170 1 unit
Baltimore Even 1 unit
Minnesota +130 1 unit
Texas +130 1 unit
Oakland -160 1 unit
Angels -120 1 unit

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