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SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS
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3-Unit Play. Take Arizona (-1.5, -110) over Washington
1-Unit Play. Take Chicago Cubs (-1.5, -120) over Colorado
2-Unit Play. Take Over 9.0 Boston at Baltimore
1.5-Unit Play. Take #971 Boston (-125) over Baltimore (7 p.m., Saturday, May 30)
Red Sox are 10-2 against a left-handed starter, 18-4 backing Lester against a team with a losing record, and 17-8 in his 25 outings. Orioles are 7-19 against a left-handed starter and 3-12 at home against a southpaw. Red Sox are 36-16 in Baltimore.
1-Unit Play. Take Cleveland (-165) over Kansas City
Welcome back, Kyle Davies. Davies is making his first start of the year after some time in the minors. However, this guy has been one of my favorite fades and his flat fastball and poor command should hurt his team once again today. C.C. Sabathia seems to have regained some of his mojo, as he’s posted a 1.62 ERA in his last seven outings. Only once in those seven (against K.C. at home) has he given up more than two runs. I think we’re going to see a high-scoring game but I think the Indians extend K.C.'s misery.
1-Unit Play. Take Los Angeles Angels (-130) over Toronto
That's it for today. I also have very strong leans on San Fran, Atlanta, and St. Louis. I love all three of those plays as well for 1-2 Units, I am just trying to limit the card. Good luck.
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NY Mets +1.05 (4 Unit Play)
These teams have split the first two games of this series but you can see that the Mets have awoken by their play lately. Although they lost last night the Mets have scored 25 runs in the past 4 games and they may get another component back today in Ryan Church who has been out with a concussion. The Mets have Mike Pelfrey on the hill and he is basically pitching for a spot here today as the Mets are activating Pedro Martinez on Tuesday and someone will have to be sent down to the minors to make room. Pelfrey has been horrible as the Mets have went only 2-7 in his starts but he does have a 3.60 ERA at Shea which is nearly 1.75 runs better than his overall ERA. This will be his first career appearance against the Dodgers and I expect a big performance from him today. The Dodgers are countering with Chad Billingsley and he has pitched well against the Mets but he has some key factors going against him here today. Billingsley is 0-5 in his starts with HP umpire Tim Welke and the Dodgers are also only 2-8 in the last 10 games with Welke behind the plate. The Mets have been playing much better baseball than the Dodgers and getting them as a home underdog here seems too good to be true. I will take the Mets in this afternoon tilt here.
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Tony Smith's Picks of the Day
The Twins host the yankees this weekend. The Yankees came back to win here last night and have turned the corner after hitting bottom. The Yankees have now won seven of their lasst nine games averaging 6.7 runs per game during the stretch. They have beaten the Twins in nine of the last twelve meetings. Chien Ming Wang is 2 - 0 vs. Minnesota in three career starts with a 1.71 ERA. Twins starter Bonser could be making his last start at this level for a while. Bonser is 2 - 6 with a 6.16 ERA, in the month of May Bonser is 0 - 2 (9.59). His last start vs. Detroit he lasted only three innings, allowed nine runs and seven hits. The first inning has been disastrous for him, in eleven starts Bonser has allowed 16 runs and 11 home runs in the first inning! Bonser is 0 - 2 vs. the Yankees 9.31 ERA, the Yankees will send him from the mound to the minors today.
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Stu Feiner's Picks of the Day
10,000 Dime MLB Game of the Week: ATLANTA BRAVES
I know the Braves have had some serious struggles on the road this year, but their opponent this afternoon are N.L. Central division cellar dwellers, the Cincinnati Reds. This is a serious bounce back game for Atlanta, which is a nice 13-6 in day games and 3-1 versus the Reds this year despite last night’s extra inning loss. Atlanta has the better offensive lineup and they have the better starting pitcher in this one. Jair Jurrjens (5-3, 2.86) is 1-0 with a 2.16 ERA in his last three starts overall. And he’ll be backed by a pen that has a nice 3.36 ERA.
Then there’s Cincy’s Josh Fogg, who has been terrible both as a starter and as a reliever this season. He began the year as the team’s No. 5 starter, but was sent to the pen after posting a 13.09 ERA in his first three starts. In his most recent start, he allowed nine earned in just two frames against at the Cubs and allowed six earned in four innings in his last home start against the Phillies. Back on May 4 in Atlanta, he was battered for five runs in 2 2/3 innings. His teams are 1-4 in his five career starts against the Braves and he’s facing an Atlanta lineup that is batting .288 and averaging 5.5 runs per game against righty starters. Meanwhile, the Reds have a losing mark versus right-handed starters. Chipper Jones had a bad Friday night, but he’ll have a big Saturday as the Braves bounce back big time.
1,000 Dime MLB Winners: TIGERS & ANGELS
The Tigers are 4-0 versus the M’s this year after Friday’s 7-4 win. They’ll make it five straight with a win tonight against a Seattle team that has dropped eight of its last 10 overall. The Mariners will start Felix Hernandez, who is 1-3 with a 4.08 ERA in seven home starts this year and has a 4.12 ERA in his last three starts overall, and he’ll be followed a pen that has a 4.23 ERA. After a slow start, Detroit starter Justin Verlander is beginning to heat up with a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts in allowing just four earned in 19 innings. In five career starts against Seattle, he’s 5-0 with a 2.43 and he’ll handcuff this M’s outfit that is batting a mere .250 versus righty starters. Tigers get it done.
After last night’s setback, look for the Angels to rebound behind the arm of starter John Lackey, who is 6-0 with a 3.31 ERA lifetime against the Blue Jays. Eleven days ago in Toronto, he earned the win in allowing just one run in seven innings as he’s sporting a 2.05 ERA in his last three starts overall. Toronto is playing better of late, but Shaun Marcum has a 4.20 ERA in his last three starts after giving up four earned in 6 2/3 innings versus the visiting Halos 10 days ago. He took the loss in that game and he’ll absorb another tonight as the Angels bounce back at home.
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Howie Feiner's Picks of the Day
500* Saturday Baseball Bash
Florida Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
The last time Hamel was on the mound the Phillies came up strong, and have continued on into this five game streak. Hamels is hot this season, he's won his last six straight and is looking for number seven. He's got a 5 - 3 record with a 3.18 ERA.
After that its all down hill. He's got a 2 - 2 record against the Marlins and he's coming off of his worst start this season last Sunday. During a season low four innings he gave up six runs. SIX runs. It took his offense's 16 hits and three home runs to bail him out and get him the win.
The Marlins are sending out Nolasco to the mound. He's 3-0 with a 2.78 ERA in his last four starts, and his arm is heating up to be a real offense stopper. On top of that, it seems as if everyone's forgotten that the Marlins have bats. They've got hitters. And its not like there the league worst team, they just yesterday lost first place to the Phillies, nothing says they won't take it back.
This game is ridiculous! I mean are you kidding me? Brandon Webb had a good start but he's been ice cold lately. Not only has he been ice cold, he's just been losing the D'Backs games left and right. There's just no way Webb should be getting this kind of a line. Specifically against a Nat's team that has shown they can take advantage of weak pitching.
He's got an impressive 9 - 2 record coupled with a 3.01 ERA but that was in April. As May comes to a close we see a pitcher whose given up at least 3 runs each of his last 5 starts. Monday he gave up 7 runs, four earned, with 10 hits.
Yesterday the Nationals showed to me that they can really make a move on any team in the league by beating the D'Backs. They won 7 - 4 after a homerun to break the tie came from Willie Harris. When the Nat's are down they play like hell to get back up.
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Sal Conti's Picks of the Day
We lost a MAX10 play in baseball for the first time this year, now 5 - 1 on MAX10 plus the bankroll move that doubled our plus 5 put us at plus nine MAX10 for the week starting last Saturday. Two plays today to max out on. The Cardinals Mike Parisi gets his first start for the Cardinals today. In eight relief appearances for St Louis he has pitched 15 2/3 innings with 10 strikeouts and a 2.87 ERA which is 1.50 at home. Parisi is intended to be a starter so his filling in for injured starter is not a stretch, he will be effective. The Pirates pitching has been awful. Paul Maholm gets todays start, 2 - 5 with a 5.11 ERA. In 6 innings earlier this year vs. the Cardinals Maholm allowed 4 runs on 11 hits. He is 0 - 4 away with an 8.57 ERA, hitters are batting .398 against him on the road. The Pirates are 10 - 18 on the road, the Cardinals 20 - 11 at home where they have won three straight and will win today.MAX10: CARDINALS
I promised an underdog today as well, Jon Lester suffered his first loss in six weeks in his first start after his no hitter. He did hold the As to three runs in 5 innings to make it six consecutive starts allowing 3 runs or less. Lester had a no decision vs. Baltimore earlier this year, he allowed 2 runs on 5 hits. The Red Sox have struggled to win on the road due mainly to their failures in one run games. The Sox are 7 - 0 in one run games at home 2 - 8 on the road. Garrett Olson gets the nod for Baltimore 4 - 1 (4.09) on the year. In his last start at home Olson shut out the Yankees for seven full and struck out seven. He is 3 - 0 with a 2.41 ERA when he pitches at home and I think the Orioles may have found something special here. The Sox lose another one run road game. MAX10: ORIOLES
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Michael Jame's Picks of the Day
Tigers at Mariners
Listen we all know that games and divisions and seasons are not won on paper. The Tigers are a paper lion and nothing else. This is a team that is in shambles. Their manager has no way of getting them out of this funk. They have moved Miguel Cabrera up and down the line-up and even switched his position. It is just not working in Detroit and it will not work for them today on the road.
Every time Felix takes the ball the Mariners have a very good chance of winning. He has thrown quality starts in almost every one of his starts. Against the Sox in his last outing he was awesome until one bad inning in the eighth. The manager made a mistake and had him throw too many pitches. That will not happen again.
Felix is right on the cusp of turning the corner and proving he is an ace. The Mariners got a little shot in the arm with the series win over the best team in the league (Red Sox) now they will keep down the struggling Tigers in Seattle.
Braves at Reds
I just can not understand this line. How in the world are the Braves the favorites in this contest? Am I the only one that sees the major disparity in their home and road splits? The Braves are a classic feast or famine team. Want to know what really hurts them on the road? It is their bullpen. This is a team that has an awful record in close games. In fact the Braves have now lost an amazing nineteen straight road games.
With Smoltz and Gonzalez on the DL this team just does not have the ability to throw quality arms late in the game. Oh yes their closer is also hurt (Soriano). Even worse is the fact that the Braves had an eleven inning game last night (Loss) and they were in their bullpen very early as Tom Glavine only went six innings and their current closer threw over an inning.
Jay Bruce is just a man on a mission. This kid wants to prove he is the real deal right now. How about four more hits last night and a .571 batting average to start of his young career. Look for Ohio to be rowdy and the Braves to get beat once again on the road.
Dodgers at Mets
I have said this time and time again the Mets are as over-rated as they come. I have seen them in person more than any other team this season and I see their warts. Tonight they have a major wart on their hands. They send out their young pitcher Mike Pelfrey. Mister first round pick, Mr. Wichita State. He has been god awful folks. How about his last two starts? 8 innings pitched 14 hits and 6 walks. How about 20 base runners in his last 8 innings. This is a pitcher that has thrown over 24 pitches per inning in his last two starts. So while not going the distance his arm was surely taxed. In fact in every outing this season he has thrown 95 pitches or above and averaging triple digits.
The Dodgers on the other hand throw out a stud. A stud that is really locked in. This is a pitcher than in his last six starts has not been good he has been great. 2 runs, 0 runs, 1 run, 4 runs, 1 run, 1run. Those are his TOTAL numbers in these games in which he has had five quality starts. Chad beat the Mets back in early May and he will do the same tonight. Take the Dodgers heading into Shea building off last nights come from behind victory.
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Brian King's Picks of the Day
CLEVELAND AT KANSAS CITY - 7:10 PM, ET
This game falls right into my home dog system. The losses are mounting for Kansas City, currently 12 straight, and with each loss the chances of winning increase. I had the Royals as a 5 dime play last night. They shoot themselves in the foot. In the bottom of the sixth DeJesus overruns second base, the Indians throw behind him and get the out before Gathright can touch home costing the Royals the tying run. Aside from that haunting mental mistake they played well jumping on Lee early but then surrendered the lead. They just missed a homer in the ninth by German who had to settle for a double and then Grady Sizemore makes a great play to end the game. This is a game of inches and the Royals were inches from ending this losing streak. Today they get another shot at an Indians team missing Travis Hafner and pitching CC Sabathia who they beat already once this year. The Indians have not garnered much run support for Sabathia and having Hafner out of the lineup does not help. Prior to the Indians scoring 18 runs the last 3 games they had been held to three runs or less the previous ten games. Kyle Davies gets the nod for the Royals after much success in AAA. We should see a much improved Davies from the kid who lost all three of his previous starts against the Indians. Add in the possible return of Mark Grudzielanek and you have a losing streak coming to an end.
KANSAS CITY +145 (5 DIMES)
DODGERS AT METS (MLB) - 7:05 PM, ET
Who called it last night. Lots of guys out there telling people to bet the Mets over their heads. I was the one who did not, We keep it conservative here with another 5 dimer on the Dodgers. They showed me something last night working out of two bases loaded jams and only giving up a run each time. They were able to keep the Mets close and tie the game twice before pulling away in the eight inning. Things do not get any better for the Mets as Mike Pelfrey takes the hill. Pelfrey more than likely regardless of the outcome will find himself back in the minors with the return of Pedro Martinez. Pelfrey has been roughed up in his last 6 starts, all losses, including his last two in which he lasted only four innings each game. Joe Torre gives the ball to Chad Billingsley who had a STRONG showing against Chicago but did not get a decision. Prior to the Chicago no decision Billingsley had gone 4-1 and not allowed more than one run in the four wins. The Mets are not 100% and the Dodgers got some momentum with that explosive eigth inning last night. Look for the Dodger bats to stay hot and win number two in a row on the road.
DODGERS -115 (5 DIMES)
BOSTON AT BALTIMORE (MLB) - 7:05 PM, ET
The Orioles have not lost more than two in a row at home this year. This is a very good team at home. I watch the O's play several times a year at the Warehouse and they are tough. Especially when it is the Yankees or Red Sox. Last night the Orioles took the Red Sox 13 innings before self destructing defensively with 3 errors that allowed Boston to score three runs. The Red Sox still are not hitting on the road as Pedroia, Ortiz, Ramirez, Youklis and Varitek were a combined 4 for 28. The Red Sox are pitching Jon Lester who has never lost to the O's against Garrett Olson who has never beaten the Sox. Lester is 3-3, 2-2 on six or more days rest and lost his last decision lasting only five innings. Olson is coming off a strong winning performance against the Yankees in which he held the Yankee bats to one run. I look for Baltimore to get the home win on Saturday where they are 6-3 their last 9.
BALTIMORE +115 (5 DIMES)
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Stadium Club Sports
Detroit @ Seattle (Verlander v Hernandez)
Detroit won last nights contest and are getting on a roll, both on the mound and at the plate. I look for that trend to continue today. Verlander is getting in top form as he’s 1-1 with a 1.89 last few times out. He’s 5-0 in his young career with a 2.43 vs. Seattle and looks pick up his 6th today. Verlander has only yielded 4 runs in his last 19 innings pitched. He will oppose Hernandez who’s been struggling of late going 0-2 with a 4.12 era last 3 starts. Felix is even worse far ranging, losing 5 of his last 6 starts posting a 5.54 era with 21 walks in just 37 innings! This trend will continue with a poor offensive club. Beltre was mired in a 0-16 slump, before breaking through last night, yet the M’s had only 3 other hits! Detroit has won 4 straight games over Seattle and is gaining momentum and confidence. The bulk of the Tigers lineup has driven in 30 runs in the last few games. Granderson, Polanco and Ordonez hit Felix well and these three are batting over .340 in the last week of action. Seattle is under .500 at home and will continue with their woes today as the Tigers roll on again with Verlander cruising to the victory!
Play on the Detroit Tigers -103 for 2 units!
L.A. Dodgers @ New York Mets (Billingsley v Pelfrey)
We have a home dog today with the Mets and I look for the Mets young Pelfrey to have a solid showing. He’s on the bubble and he’s aware of that. What better way to rebound against a poor hitting ballclub. The dodgers scored a few runs and hit a little better last night, yet in my opinion that’s an aberration. They will send out Chad Billingsley to pitch this afternoon. His numbers will tell you he’s getting no run support. Chad is 4-6 on the year with a 3.68 era. The Dodgers are just 12-16 on the road. Pelfrey is motivated today and has a solid lineup backing him. He flirted with a no hitter on 5/14. The kid can pitch and he will get some run support today. The slugging Mets have hit 10 home runs in the last week of action and Reyes and Wright are on fire, hitting 6 homeruns in the last few games. Look for the Met’s to crank it up offensively and Pelfrey to make a strong case on the mound as the Met’s bring home the win at home today!
Play on the New York Met’s +108 for 2 units!
Pittsburgh @ St. Louis (Maholm v Parisi)
The Cardinals continue their dominance over the Pirates winning last nights game. They will send in Maholm, who is 0-2 with a 5.75 era his last 3 starts. Paul has been pitching bad and even worse this year against a potent Redbird attack. He lost this season start with a 6.00 era! Mike Parisi takes the mound for the Cardinals. He’s been very effective, with a 2.87 era on the season. His last 3 times out, he has a 1.93 era. The Pirates have lost 3 of the last four, allowing 25 runs during that span! That’s bad news when your facing a team that has lit up the scoreboard and against Maholm. The Cardinals love to play in front of the home crowd going 20-11 and winning 6 of the last 8 games. Pujols is getting hot, .364 on the season and has homered 3 of the last 4 games and hits Maholm to a .455 tune! Glaus and Ankiel also hit Paul well, batting .500 in their careers vs. St. Louis is 20-11 at home. Look for St. Louis to rough up Maholm again as the Redbirds bats will carry Mike Parisi and the Cardinals to the home victory today!
Play on the St. Louis Cardinals -130 for 2 units!
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