SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

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SportsKingz

MLB

BOSTON -130
ATLANTA -135
PHILLY R/L -115
GIANTS -120

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LT Profits

Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays Under 7.0

Both Scott Kazmir of the Tampa Bay Rays and Javier Vazquez are having great years and both are in peak form, so runs should be at a premium in this contest.

Kazmir lost his seasonal debut vs. the Boston Red Sox after beginning the year on the Disabled List, but he has since won four straight starts while allowing either one or no runs on each occasion! He has allowed only 20 baserunners in 26 innings over those last four outings, which translates to a magnificent 0.77 WHIP, and he is facing a White Sox lineup that is batting just .236 vs. left-handed pitching this season.

Meanwhile, Vazquez is 5-3 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.23 WHIP overall, and he has three Quality Starts in his last four outings, allowing two earned runs or less in two of those outings. He also already owns a Quality Start vs. Tampa Bay this season where he allowed two runs and six hits in 6.1 innings. Furthermore, the Chicago bullpen now ranks second in the American League with a 2.98 pen ERA, which should keep late tack-on runs at a minimum.

The end result should be a very low scoring affair.

Pick: White Sox, Rays Under 7


Toronto Blue Jays +120

The Toronto Blue Jays are coming on offensively, and they exploded for a 10-4 win here over these Los Angeles Angels last night. Look for their success to continue behind Shaun Marcum tonight.

Marcum has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season with his 2.64 ERA and remarkable 0.87 WHIP in 71.2 innings. He has allowed two runs or less in eight of his ten starts, and he allowed just four earned runs in each of the other two outings. He also pitched well in his only career starts in Anaheim last season allowing two runs in six innings of a 9-2 win, and he now has the support of an improving offense and a bullpen that leads the Major Leagues with a collective 2.72 ERA.

Now John Lackey has pitched very well in his three starts this year after coming off of the Disabled List, but he did come up short vs. the White Sox last Sunday and his stamina still appears to be a concern. That could be bad news considering that the Angels rank 28th out of 30 Major League teams with a 4.43 bullpen ERA.

All things considered, the Blue Jays and Marcum offer nice value at this underdog price.

Pick: Blue Jays +120

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VEGAS EXPERTS

Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels

Having won eight of their last nine, the Toronto Blue Jays are a dangerous underdog right, especially considering who's on the hill for them. Starter Shaun Marcum owns a devastating 9-0 team start record as a road dog of +150 or less, including a shutout win over Cliff Lee and Cleveland back on 5/12. Side with the hot team at a great price.

Play on: Toronto

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Larry Ness

New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: New York Yankees

The Yankees fell behind 4-1 in the first inning last night in the Metrodome but rallied to win 6-5. The Yanks had 16 hits and won for the seventh time in their last nine games, while averaging 6.7 RPG. Runs should not be hard to come by tonight vs Boof Bonser. Bonser has been just dreadful over his last five starts, allowing 33 hits and 27 ERs over 25.1 innings (9.59 ERA). He's coming off a three-inning effort in his last outing (last Saturday at Detroit), when he gave up a career-high nine runs (eight earned). In two career starts vs the Yanks (both last year), Bonser lasted just 9.2 innings, while allowing 15 hits, five walks and 10 ERs (9.31 ERA). This hardly seems like a good spot for the Twins, who have now lost nine of their last 12 games against the Yankees and are only 12-35 vs the New Yorkers since 2002, including two ALDS matchups. Chien-Ming Wang (6-2, 3.82 ERA) gets the call for New York. He opened the '08 season 6-0 with the Yankees winning his first seven starts but he hasn't won any of his last four starts (Yanks are 1-3). He's been roughed up pretty good in his last two outings, allowing 13 hits and 12 ERs over 14 innings (7.71 ERA). However, he is 3-0 with a 1.55 ERA in four road starts this year plus is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three career starts vs the Twins (all Yankee wins). Lay it with Wang and the Yankees.

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Priceless Picks

1 Unit on Atlanta Braves -128

I like the Braves to bounce back with a win following yesterday's loss.  The Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss, 10-4 in their last 14 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and 4-1 in Jurrjens' last 5 starts.  The Reds are 3-12 in their last 15 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game, 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, and  1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Braves are playing good baseball right now and I think we'll start to see them winning some more games on the road starting with this one.

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BETTORSWORLD

PADRES +105

BLUE JAYS +124

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Tony Karpinski

Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals    
Play: Cleveland Indians   

KC has lost 12 in a row and just look clueless on the field. My 4 yr daughters Tee-ball team plays with more intensity and pride. Both of these clubs have fallen on hard times as has last years Cy Young winner CC Sabathia, he is 3 - 6 with a 4.74 ERA for the season, he is not broken he just needed to be fixed. In his last four starts Sabathia is 2 - 1 with a 1.20 ERA, like everybody on the Indians staff he could use a little run support. They will give him the support he needs today as the Royals will try Kyle Davies today. Davies just called up from Triple A as Brett Tomko is relegated to the bullpen. Davies did not make the team coming out of spring training, he was 0 - 3 vs. Cleveland last year with an ERA of 12.27. The Royals slip for the thirteenth straight time with this loss.

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John Ryan

Florida Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies     
Play: Philadelphia Phillies     

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia – This is one of those rare times that the AiS grades a large favorite as a 3* graded play. Remember though it is always valid and for very strong and extensive reasons. Florida bats are hitting just 221 with a 312 OBP over their past 7 games. More alarming is that they have struck out 74 times in 244 AB during this stretch and now to have to face one of the best strikeout starters in the NL. Phils bats are just sickly good hitting 311 with a 389 OBP, 33 EB, 12 HR, and scoring 9.4 RPG over their past 7 games. In case Hamels does get in trouble he can rely on the BEST bullpen in the Majors. The bullpen has been rock solid sporting a 2.79 ERA and a 1.306 WHIP on the season and a 2.30 ERA and 1.276 WHIP over their past 7 games. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 142-32 for 82% making 71.9 units since 1997. Play against road dogs with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing 10 runs or more and is now facing an opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more. With just a little more offense Hamels could have 8 or even 9 wins. Still his team is 8-3 in home starts and against divisional foes he has been lights out posting a 1.45 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in 4 starts. Hamels is 19-3 (+14.0 Units) against the money line versus poor baserunning teams that are averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. Take Philadelphia.

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BIG AL

AMERICAN LEAGUE TOTALS WINNER

Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals 'under' the total. The Royals have decided to make a change and put the struggling righthander Brett Tomko (2-6 with a 6.11 ERA) in the bullpen and try some other options in the rotation. Those "other options" include calling up 24 year-old righthander Kyle Davies from the minors and handing him the ball at home for his first Major league start in his first Major League appearance of 2008. Davies has certainly earned this trip to the Kauffman Stadium mound, as he was tearing up the Pacific Coast League with a 6-2 record and a league-best ERA of 2.06. Davies is certainly no stranger to this role as he has 56 Major League starts in his last three years in professional ball. He is rewarded for his accomplishments at the Minor League level by having to face none-other-than the American League Cy Young award winner, CC Sabathia, in his first start of 2008. Sabathia got off to a very rough start this year, but has really settled down recently, and is 1-1 with a 1.17 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his last three starts. Eight of the last ten games played between these two teams have gone a total of eight runs or less. Take the 'under'.

Cleveland /Kansas City Under

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Indian Cowboy

(POD) Minnesota Lynx -3
(Reg) LA Angels UNDER 7.5

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Jeffmoney

Phillies -1.5, -110 (pod)
Braves -125
Tigers -105
Redsox -130
Angels Un 7.5, -120

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Mr A's

Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs

The struggling Colorado Rockies have dropped their last five games and have played pitable away from home, just 8-21 on the road this season. Contrary, Chicago Cubs have been hot, winning 13 of their last 19. Look for Chicago to pound the the Rockies this afternoon at Wrigley. Chicago has won nine of the last 12 versus Colorado and the last six in Chicago. Take the Cubs. Chicago has won right-hander Ryan Dempster last 8 home starts.

Chicago Cubs - 240

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GINA

Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals
 
The Kansas City Royals have lost the last five in Cleveland and right-hander Kyle Davies is 0-3 with a 12.27 ERA, in three career starts against the Indians. Go with Cleveland to hand the collapse Royals their thirteen straight defeat. Southpaw C.C. Sabathia is 14-9 with a 3.35 ERA in 30 career starts against the Royals, including 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA in two starts this season. The Indians are 5-1 in Sabathia's last 6 road starts versus the Royals.

Cleveland Indians -165

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JB's Computer Picks

Cincinnati Reds +120

Milwaukee Brewers -180 * * *

New York Yankees -160

Texas Rangers -110

Best Bet * * *

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Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections

STRONG 5000 UNIT BASEBALL CRUSHER WINNER
Boston w/Lester -131

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Dave Malinsky 4*

GAME: Nationals (HT) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (HT)
SPORT: MLB First 5 Innings
PICK: Under

After these two played to a series opening Over on Friday we have been left with outstanding value to back Brandon Webb and Jason Bergmann in a setting in which we can call for each to pitch particularly well against the opposing lineup. And the circumstances of the setting tell us that the First Five Innings is the best way to take advantage.

Webb is off of a rare bad outing at Atlanta, but there is no reason to be alarmed - the Braves can load up a lineup with quality left-handers, and might be his single biggest challenge in the N.L. right now. Washington is at the other end of that spectrum. Webb has simply dominated right-handed hitters this season, allowing an anemic .186, with far more strikeouts (38) than hits allowed (27), and only one home run in 145 at-bats. As for left-handed punch, the Nationals simply do not have any. They also lack experience against Webb, with six of the eight position starters having less than 10 career at-bats. With a chip on his shoulder off of the Atlanta defeat, we will call for him to confidently attack this lineup on the first couple of passes.

We also get fair value here because the pitching forms will show Jason Bergmann at 1-1/4.50 for the season, but those numbers carry little meaning. He got off to a dismal start, so much so that they sent him back down to the Minor’s to find his mechanics. He did that in a significant way, allowing just three runs over 21 innings in his last three starts with Columbus, and since being called back up he has been electric - he has not allowed a single run over 19.2 innings, with a dominating ratio of 22 strikeouts vs. only 12 hits allowed. And with no Diamondback having more than seven career at-bats against him, his form can hold up through the first couple of passes as well.

Making the opening stanzas of this game even better for our purposes is the early local starting time - because of that the roof at Chase Field will be closed for roughly the first 90 minutes of play, which could be the entirety of our involvement. This park continues to play much lower when the roof is closed and the air conditioning is running, and provides the ideal setting to get the offenses off to a slow start. And by making that our focus, we can avoid potential late-inning shenanigans, particularly with a Washington bullpen that has been overworked on this road trip.

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Robert Ferringo

6.5-Unit Play. Take Over 9.0 Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Note: This is our Total of the Month.

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KELSO

15 Units Red Sox
5 Units Dodgers
4 Units Tigers
3 Units Angels

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Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections

ANOTHER 5000* BASEBALL HOME RUN WINNER
Cleveland w/Sabathia -165

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The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections

5000* BASEBALL DOMINATOR WINNER
LA Angels w/Lackey -132

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