SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

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Ferrall


AL FREE B's for SAT

INDIANS -180 on ML over Rangers--Cliff Lee stops the bleeding in Cleveland

Tigers -160 on ML over Twins--TAKE THE OVER 10 RUNS because both pitchers are aweful.  Tigers get lucky

BOSTON -150 on ML over Oakland--Beckett gets the Red Sox back in the WIN column.  Ferrall with the nice snag of the A's Friday night


NL FREE B's for SAT

Nationals -110 on ML over Brewers--I'm taking LANNAN even though the Nats are shitty.  I nailed them Friday, so let's go for it again !

Padres -105 on ML over Reds--San Diego has to get lucky once in a while don't they ?

DODGERS -155 on ML over Cardinals--Brad Penny is the man in Lipstick City tonight baby !  TAKE THE OVER 8.5 RUNS

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The Killer Move's pick for Saturday

10* Boston Celtics

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Special K Phone

5* Oak
5* Tor Under
7* WSox Under

10* Pistons

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LT Profits

MLB Philadelphia Phillies 2*

MLB Florida Marlins 2*

MLB Oakland A's 2*

NHL Penguins/Red Wings Under 5.5 2*

NBA Celtics/Pistons Over 175.5 2*

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PROPHET

STANLEY CUP WINNER: Gold Member's Alert***

STRONG PK 1*: Detroit Red Wings -165

This game one is probably the hardest game to predict in any of the series games. After careful consideration, I am taking the Detroit Red Wings in this Game One matchup. I am absolultely sure that this series goes back to Pittsburgh 1-1. It would be alot easier to wait until Game 2 then to load up. So I am one unit. Overall, we believe that Detroit has a fabulous roster. Lets face it, they won the President's Trophy for good reason. They are not pushovers and Game One, in Hockey Town, will definitely edge the home team. In that regard, we are laying the wood in Game One. But, do not discount the Pens either. I think they will make some mistakes tonight that cost them this game, but they will make adjustments too that get them back in the series quickly.

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Oscarxena Sports

NY Mets +1.33 (4 Unit Play)

The Mets were riding high after sweeping the Yankees in a rain shortened series last weekend but now find themselves in free fall as they have lost 5 games in a row and are 2 game below .500 for the season. Willie Randolph is on the firing block unless this team starts to win soon but I like their chances today against the Rockies. Claudio Vargas will make the start for New York and he has went 4-1 in his career taking on the Rockies although his ERA is slightly high against them at 5.16. His teams have also went 6-2 in his starts against Colorado. Meanwhile for the Rockies they are putting Jeff Francis on the mound and he has been awful all year so far with a 5.87 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and the Rocks are only 3-6 so far this year in his starts. The HP Umpire for today's contest is Chad Fairchild who has shown some love for the road teams so far this year as the road team has won 6 out of 10 meetings with Chad behind the plate. Vargas has also had the luxury of Fairchild behind the plate as he has went 2-0 in those starts while Francis has not had any appearances with "The Chad." I think the Mets break their losing streak today with a big win in Colorado.

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Bob Akmens

NHL Detroit Red Wings -170 10 *

MLB Reds/Padres Over 8 4*

MLB Cardinals/Dodgers Over 8.5 4*

NBA Detroit Pistons 3*

AFL Chicago Rush 3*

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Indian Cowboy POD

Boston Celtics +5.5

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Ben Burns

NHL Penguins/Red Wings Under 5.5 4 units

NBA Celtics/Pistons Under 175.5 4 units

NBA Celtics 4 units

MLB LA Dodgers 4 units

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DAVID MALINSKY

Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Washington Nationals

We have been waiting, and waiting, and waiting out the slow trickles in the marketplace this morning that have moving Milwaukee to the favorite in this one. That maximizes our opportunity in a play that should not come as any surprise. Last weekend we exploited the Brewers to a count of 15*s in Fenway Park, and a slumping team that has gone 2-11 in their last five road series absolutely should not be in this role, particularly in a Seth McClung vs. John Lannan hook-up.

Seth McClung failed as a starter at Tampa Bay, and was cut loose at a time when the Rays (then Devil) badly needed pitching. That is not a good sign. His last start came in 2006, which means that even if he has his good stuff he is not going to have the stamina to work deeply into a game - particularly because he still needs a GPS device for the strike zone most nights, with 13 walks in 20.1 innings so far. And when the starter does not eat innings, a weak Brewer bullpen brings its own vulnerabilities to the table.

As for Lannan, he becomes one of those examples of how the peripheral numbers can be strong early indicators that can get us ahead of the curve. We first got behind him in a 5* Under win vs. Atlanta about a month ago, and here was the prelude to the play -
We like Lannan as a prospect but the betting markets do not have to raise an eyebrow yet off of his 0-2/4.86 opening to the season. There has been something real good behind those base numbers, however - like solid ratio?s of 17 strikeouts vs. seven walks allowed and 24 ground ball outs vs. nine in the air. When you are getting strikeouts, and also making batters hit the ball on the ground, it is a sign of having good stuff, and with only nine of his 50 outs coming through the air, he brings something substantial to the table.So where are we now? In seven starts since then he has worked to a 2.55 tune over 42.1 innings, and for the full season his Out ratio?s are outstanding - of the 159 batters that he has retired, only 41 were able to hit the ball in the air. He has had a positive ground-out to fly-out ratio in all nine starts, and as his confidence grows so does his willingness to attack the strike zone - just three walks in 19.1 innings over this last three starts, despite the fact that they all came on the road. He is a strong counter into an undisciplined Milwaukee lineup, and there are no fatigue ratings at all from the bullpen behind him.

The Nationals are an under-rated item. They have only played five games all season against teams that entered Friday with a losing record, and went 4-1 in those games. Off of last nights confidence-boosting win, they are easy to back in this one.

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BEN BURNS

Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Washington Nationals

I believe Milwaukee is getting way too much respect here and that we're getting excellent value with the Nationals. The Brewers ARE a pretty good team. However, that's only IF/WHEN they're playing at Milwaukee. They are NOT a good team on the road. Indeed, they're 2-5 on their current road trip and are now 11-17 on the road for the season. That means they're winning roughly 39 percent of their road games thus far. That's actually pretty good when compared to their road record the past couple of seasons. Dating back to the starts of the 2006 season, they're now a dismal 70-120 (-44.7 units vs. the moneyline!) their last 190 road games. That's less than 37 percent. That includes a money-burning 14-27 (-17) mark when playing on the road with a line ranging from +100 to -125.

Today, the Brewers send Seth McClung to the mound. You may remember this guy from the American League a couple of years ago. Then again, he didn't do much of anything very memorable. Granted, he's been pitching well in relief lately. However, let's not forget that he hasn't started since 2006 and that in 37 previous starts, he 12-20 with an awful 6.17 ERA

As for the Nationals, they grabbed yesterday's opener by a score of 5-1 and have now won three of their past five. They've been competitive at home and a victory today will pull them back to the 500 mark here. Not that they should need any, but this opportunity should help provide the Nationals with some additional motivation. They send John Lannan to the mound and he's been absolutely superb of late. Over his last seven starts, the 23 year old southpaw is 4-2 with a stellar 2.55 ERA, giving up one earned run or less in five of those seven games. Last time out, he allowed a mere four hits and one run, through 7 1/3 innings, en route to a 2-1 win at Baltimore. During that outing he threw 71 strikes to just 34 balls (5 Ks, 1 walk) which prompted manager Manny Acta to say: "He threw 70 percent of his pitches for strikes. That's Greg Maddux-like on his good days. He hit the glove all day. Also we were getting quick outs. The kid deserves all the credit."

Considering that the Nationals are now a slight underdog, it's worth noting that they're 8-1 the last nine times they played at home with a line ranging from +100 to +125 and that they're a highly profitable 43-28 (+18.5) in that role since 2006. Consider backing Lannan and the home team.

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MR A's

NBA

Detroit Pistons - 5

Over - 175.5

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JOHNNY GUILD

Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons

A close defensive fight is likely. Boston is 4-0 ATS in the last four clashes at the Palace of Auburn Hills, but the Celtics' winless road record in the playoffs, 0-6 ATS, renders the Pistons at home to be the smart bet. Take Detroit as a 5-point home favorite. They play well at home and have taken ten of the last 12 meetings against the Celtics in Motown.

Detroit Pistons - 5

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Mike Rose

MLB Brewers/Nats Over 9 3*

NBA Boston Celtics 3*

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The Hitman Guaranteed Selections

5000 LARGE BASEBALL TOTALS WINNER
OVER 10 Minnesota and Detroit


The Hitman Guaranteed Selections

5000 LARGE BASEBALL WINNER
Detroit w/Robertson -154

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Mike Rose

MLB Brewers/Nats Over 9  3*

NBA Boston Celtics  3*

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Brian Mac

5 units OVER PITT/MIL

5 units OVER FL/SF

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Michael Cannon

25 Dime

PISTONS

Take the Pistons minus the points over the Celtics in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals.

Detroit did exactly what I expected in its Game 2 win at Boston. They were back in the groove after a week layoff before Game 1 and dissected the Celtics with a balanced scoring attack and relentless defense.

Now they’re back home where they know they can put a stranglehold on the series.

Boston hasn’t won on the road yet this season in the playoffs and now they have to come into the Palace and pull it off.

Sorry, I don’t see it happening.

The Pistons are too deep and too balanced for Boston to pull off that feat.

Just look at the numbers. The Pistons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, including 3-1 ATS at home. The Celtics, on the other hand, are 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall and 0-6 SUATS on the road this playoff season.

The straight-up winner is also on a 6-0 ATS run in this rivalry.

I can give you all the numbers to back this up, but it could take all day.

The simple fact is the Pistons are at home with an opportunity to take control of this series. With each passing day Chauncey Billups is getting healthier as well. Detroit has always had quality depth and balance in its scoring and this postseason is no exception.

Take the Pistons minus the points as they grab the win and cover.


10 Dime

CUBS (With Marquis as listed pitcher)

Take the Cubs for the road win tonight over the Pirates.

It’s getting ridiculous how dominant the Cubs are over the Pirates in these matchups.

The Cubs are 9-1 against the Pirates this season, 4-0 in Pittsburgh and 12-1 in the last 13 meetings.

That’s dominance rarely seen on the major league stage.

Jason Marquis will start for the Cubs and his only two wins on the season have come at the Pirates expense.

The Pirates will start left-hander Phil Dumatrait and the Cubs are hitting a robust .305 against southpaws this season.

Take the Cubs as they grab the road win.

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VEGAS EXPERTS

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays 

You want to know how wacky the 2008 MLB season has been? We can now make statements like "Tampa Bay will be a very rude host." Tonight's victim is the Baltimore Orioles, who send Steve Trachsel and his 3-24 TSR as a road underdog of +150 to +175 to the hill. Tampa is a perfect 10-0 as a home favorite of greater than -150 this season and that continues tonight!

Play on: Tampa Bay

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Nelly
   
St. Louis + over Los Angeles

Brad Penny is a go-against pitcher right now as his recent results have been awful, including allowing 20 runs over his past three starts. Penny owns a 5.50 ERA in home games and he is walking more batters than usual. Batters have a .307 average against Penny this season and he will face a hot hitting St. Louis team that stole the first game of the series last night. The Cardinals are backed by Kyle Lohse who has been a pleasant surprise with many high quality outings this year. St, Louis has won seven of the last nine games at Dodger Stadium while dominating this series in the last five years. Penny has not proven worthy of heavy favoritism and St. Louis has been the better team so far in 2008. 

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