TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Re: TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS
WNBA Basketball - Sacramento Monarchs @ Seattle Storm
3 units (Normal) ATS: Seattle Storm -8 (-110)
NBA Basketball - Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics
3 units (Play of the Day) TOTAL: Under 174 (-110)
An insight into this game is possible by looking into the past results of these 2 ballclubs when they faced off in classics this year. After all, the NBA couldn't be happier that these 2 teams are facing each other. After all, what better game is out there with more stars and many thought that this indeed would be the Eastern Conference Finals and that is exactly what has panned out: The last 3 contests between these 2 teams have gone under: These were all games played this year: 03/05/08 BOS 90 - DET 78 01/05/08 DET 85 - BOS 92 12/19/07 BOS 85 - DET 87 Essentially what you have is no game that has gone over 177. That game was in Detroit when Boston won with revenge on the road. Both games in Boston have totaled 172 and 168. Consequently, although this total is low, it is warranted. Note that 40% of the public favors the Pistons in this ballgame while 60% favor the Celtics, although do note, the Celtics had more than enough covering at home against the Cavs who ended up covering at home consistently, just losing straight up on the road although covering a few ballgames in the process. I lean on the Celtics here to get it done at home, but I tell you what, this is an awful shady line. Do note that the Pistons have revenge, they won 2 ballgames with no Chauncey Billups which just shows you there character, if anything, I lean on the under in a ballgame that finishes off in the mid 160's, in an ugly game. After all, the under is 4-0 when the Pistons face a team with a winning record, meaning their defense tightens up, but at the same time, their scoring gets even in more into a methodical half-court offense, the under is 4-0 when the C's catch up with a team with a winning record for the same reasoning as why Pistons ballgames against winning teams go under and of course, the last 4 times these 2 teams have met, they have all gone under. Once again, I look for a game in the mid 160's despite the low total.
MLB Baseball - Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
3 units (Normal) MONEYLINE: Milwaukee Brewers -105
The Milwaukee Brewers have lost five games in a row. I don't think this is actually a good indicator of their play right now. This team put up seven runs on Josh Beckett and six runs on Tim Wakefield. They beat Brad Penny. They beat Wellemeyer who's been pitching well this year. Manny Parra has only won half of his games this year but again I don't think it's a good indicator of how he has pitched. Parra has given up more than 3 runs just once all year and never more than 5. In two of his losses he gave up one run and two runs in the game. Maholm on the other hand has given up more than 3 runs in a game 5 times this year. Brewers are showing plenty of value here.
Re: TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS
4-Star BOSTON -4' over Detroit
This is the match-up the Celtics were looking forward to when the playoffs began. This is when it really starts. We look for the Celtics to be the ones hitting on all cylinders here. Paul Pierce's heroic performance in game seven should have Ray Allen completely embarrassed. Allen should come out rejuvenated and rededicated to contribute in this series. SINCE RAY ALLEN JOINED THE TEAM, the Celtics are a perfect 8-0 ATS after a home win in which he took fewer than 10 shots. Boston has won these eight qualifying games by an average of 18.2 ppg and covered by an average of 10.2 ppg. The only qualifying game in which they did not win by double digits was their 92-85 win in Detroit getting 2 points.
In addition, the Celtics are 7-0 ATS after a win at home in which Paul Pierce scored at least 30 points and 6-0 ATS (12.0 ppg) at home when Pierce' scoring output increased by at least 15 points over their past two games.
The Pistons beat the Magic in game five of that series despite trailing after the third quarter and being outshot 48.4% to 36.1%. This is not going to cut it vs the Celtics. Looking at the trends we see that the Pistons are 0-6 ATS (-10.2 ppg) with rest after shooting less than 40% from the field.
Finally, the league is terrible with a lot of rest after a game in which they came back from a third quarter deficit. Specifically, the league is 0-19 ATS over the past few seasons as a dog with two or more days of rest off a win as a favorite in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter as long as they scored fewer than 32 points in that fourth quarter. Six of the nineteen qualifying games are from the playoffs.
The Pistons' "easy" series win over the Magic will have them soft and over-confident here. At home -- the Celtics will be able to carry their momentum from their game seven win into this one. Lay the small number.
MTi's FORECAST: BOSTON 86 Detroit 76
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