TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Re: TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS

John Fina

Selection: Tampa Bay Rays -125

on Tuesday. Today the Tampa Bay Rays will be on the road as they take on the Oakland Athletics. We will side with the Tampa Bay Rays! One reason why we will side with the Tampa Bay Rays is because they will be sending to the mound the starting pitcher who has been pitching a lot better as of late. This says it all... The Tampa Bay Rays Starting Pitcher (Scott Kazmir) has a 1.69 ERA in his last 3 starts, while Oakland Athletics Starting Pitcher (Greg Smith) has a 4.32 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, Scott Kazmir is the much better starting pitcher. In addition, the Tampa Bay Rays have played solid baseball when playing the role of the favorite. In fact, the Tampa Bay Rays are 6-2 in their last 8 games as a favorite. We see the Tampa Bay Rays getting another win tonight.

Take the Tampa Bay

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Rocco Spacamuro

75* Mets -125 GM 1


Jack Clayton

Indians


Templer's Sports Picks    

Tigers


HotLocksports

Reds/Dodgers Over 8.5


Paul Leiner

5* Phi/Wash Over 8


Brandon Lovell

Detroit/Boston Under


MadduxSports

Colorado -135


Arthur Ralph

Clev/Chic Over 8


Mighty Quinn

Pistons


Gamblers Data

Tampa Bay -125


PlayByPlayInc.

DETROIT/BOSTON Over 174


Tokay Sports Picks

DETROIT/BOSTON Under 174


Sharp Sports Advisors

FLORIDA MARLINS


ARMVIN SPORTS

REDS


floridabookybusters    

Kansas City/Boston Over 9.5


PlusLineSports Daily Baseball Pick

Tampa Bay Rays -1.5


Play By Play

Pistons/Celtics Over


Totals4u

TB/Oak Over


Scott Spreitzer

Mariners/Tigers Over


Joe Wiz

Pirates
Astros


Computer Sports

Mets Gm 1


Glen Mcgrew

Pirates


NICK JONES

Detroit Pistons +4.5


Insider Sports Report

Arizona -120


Mike Wynn

Baltimore +140


Nevada Sharpshooter

DIAMONDBACKS -120


SCOUT

Milwaukee/Pittsburgh over 9


BIG TIME SPORTS

TEXAS / MINNESOTA OVER 9.5


HUDDLE UP

Cleveland -120


TV HOTLINE

ARIZONA -120


RAZOR SHARP

NY METS - Game 1


PLATINUM PLAYS

YANKEES - 145


The Super Scout

Phillies -153

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Alex Smart

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres Under 8.0

The San Diego Padres veteran starting hurler, Greg Maddux has pitched very well at home this season, as is evident by a stingy 1.42 ERA in 3 starts at PETCO. His Cardinals pitching opponent Joel Pineiro (2-2, 4.46 ERA) has been fairly consistent this season, and in this forgiving park, should be able to hold a light hitting Padres offense , that averages just 3 RPG , on a ugly ,215 BA at home, in check. With two capable throwers , on the hill tonight, look for another sleeper in San Diego , as this contest fails to eclipse the total. Final notes & Key Trends: Pineiro is 3-0 along with a tight 3.21 ERA in 5 career starts vs San Diego . Six of the L/7 meetings here in SD have gone under the Total. Play UNDER

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LT Profits

Atlanta Braves +120 Gm 1

Now there is no question that John Maine of the New York Mets is a much better pitcher than Top Glavine of the Atlanta Braves at this stage of their careers. However, there are other factors pointing us to the Braves as nice home underdogs in this spot.

First of all, Atlanta has been one of the best home teams in baseball so far this season, going 16-5 here for +8.71 units. It is not often that you can catch the Braves as home underdogs either, as they have only been in this role three times this season. Well, they are a perfect 3-0 in those games, with one of the upsets coming over these Mets when they bested Johan Santana at a whopping +146.

Getting back to this game specifically, there is no disputing Maine’s talent, as he is 5-2 with a spiffy 2.81 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. However, he was not impressive in his first start here in Atlanta this year, when he surrendered four earned runs and 11 baserunners while lasting just four innings of an 11-5 Braves victory. Then again, Maine struggling against the Braves in Atlanta should not be surprising when you consider the Bravos are batting an impressive .309 vs. right-handed pitching at home.

Now Glavine is obviously past his prime, although he has still allowed two earned runs or less in four of his six “real” starts this year. This does not include his seventh outing where he was lifted after just 16 pitches with a strained hamstring. Even is Glavine is in need of early relief here, Atlanta has now moved up to seventh in the Major Leagues with a 3.37 bullpen ERA, making them a play under our Bullpen System that has averaged +97 units the last three years.

We think that all of those factors are enough to offset the Mets’ starting pitching advantage at this price at home for Atlanta.

Pick: Braves +120 (Game 1)


Toronto Blue Jays -115

John Lackey of the Los Angeles Angels pitched well in his first start off of the Disabled List, but after throwing 99 pitches in seven innings, he is a prime candidate to regress in his second start tonight vs. the Toronto Blue Jays.

Besides, this is not the best pitching matchup for him, as Dustin McGowan has pitched much better than his 4.38 ERA and 1.44 WHIP would indicate. Both of those figures ate skewed by one horrid outing in Cleveland where McGowan was roughed up for nine runs while allowing 10 baserunners in just 3.2 innings. The truth of the matter however is that he has allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his other eight starts, and he allowed just four runs in the other outing. McGowan was also a perfect two for two in Quality Starts vs. the Angels last season.

Now if Lackey does indeed pitcher fewer innings tonight, that would certainly be bad news for the Halos given that the rank 29th out of 30 Major League teams with a 4.87 bullpen ERA, ahead of only the Texas Rangers. By comparison, the Blue Jays lead the American League with a 3.14 pen ERA, making Toronto a strong Bullpen System play here.

Finally, the Jays are 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-lead meetings with the Angels here north of the border, and we look for Toronto to prevail again here.

Pick: Blue Jays -115

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Sportsbettingstats

Arizona Diamondbacks at Florida Marlins

In their last game the Diamondbacks beet the Detroit Tigers 4-0, while the Marlins lost to the Kansas City Royals 9-3 in their last game. This game is a battle between two teams that are leading their respective divisions, as the Marlins are in 1st place in the NL East and the Diamondbacks are in 1st place in the NL West. The Diamondbacks are 6-4 in their last 10 games and the Marlins are 5-5 in their last 10 games. Both teams did not receive a lot of press in the off season, as they were not picked to win their division, but the MLB season is ¼ over and they are both in 1st place. Taking the mound for the Diamondbacks is Micah Owings (5-1 3.81 ERA), who has been a pleasant surprise in the Diamondback rotation. In his last outing he went 6 innings giving up 0 earned runs in the win. In their win over the Tigers in their last game the Diamondbacks scored 4 runs on 8 hits and left 8 men on base. On defense the Diamondbacks gave up 0 runs on 7 hits to the Tigers. Taking the mound for the Marlins is Mark Hendrickson (5-2 3.91 ERA), who has been solid this year but has lost 2 games in a row. In his last outing he went 5 innings giving up 4 earned runs in the loss. In their loss to the Royals in their last game the Marlins scored 3 runs on 10 hits and left 7 men on base. On defense the Marlins gave up 9 runs on 14 hits to the Royals.

Staff Pick: This game features a couple of pitchers with almost identical numbers. In his last outing the Marlins Hendrickson had his worst start of the season and will look to get back in the win column at home. The Diamondbacks are hitting .267 as a team and are 2nd in the NL (238) in runs scored, while the Marlins are hitting .264 as a team and are 7th in runs scored (213). Florida can beat teams with the long ball, as the Marlins are 2nd in the NL in home runs (63). The pitching match up has to go the Diamondbacks, as Hendrickson has lost 2 starts in a row, while Owings had a strong outing in his last game. The Marlins are still in 1st place but have come down to earth after a very strong start and are now only 1 game ahead of the 2nd place New York Mets. The Diamondbacks have a comfortable 5 game lead on the L.A. Dodgers in the NL West. Look for Hendrickson to bounce back and have a good start and for the Marlins to win a close game in a pitcher's duel.

Marlins 4 Diamondbacks 3

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EZWINNERS DAY BASEBALL

1 STAR: (931) NY METS (-$127) over Atlanta
(Listing Maine and Glavine)
(Risking $127 to win $100)

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JB's Computer Picks

Washington Nationals +140

Florida Marlins +105

Chicago Cubs -130

Chicago White Sox + 105

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David Malinsky

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Florida Marlins 
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks

One of the real keys to finding value in any sport is to be ahead of the curve on emerging performance patterns. We believe that we are there with Mark Hendrickson tonight, and since we can exploit him by playing the far better team at a short price, there is no hesitation to get involved.

Hendrickson was only invited to Florida this season because he had been born left-handed. A six year run through the Major League’s with three different teams had produced a combined 43-55/5.02, including a 4-8/5.21 with the Dodgers LY. With his 34th birthday coming up in a month, those are not the kind of numbers that keep you an active member of the MLB Players Union, but left-handers are such prized commodities that opportunities are seemingly always available. But when the marketplace sees his 5-2/3.91 performance as a Marlin so far, they begin to believe, and this price certainly reflects that. Our inclination, instead, is that Hendrickson is a correction waiting to take place, and we believe that is already happening. The key is that it has happened far off of the radar screens.

The Florida left-hander got a no-decision and a loss in his last two outings, and his ERA only rose from 3.71 to 3.91 in the process. That does not raise any eyebrows. But take a closer look. He lasted only 9.1 innings across those two performances, throwing 203 pitches. It was 25.2 pitches per inning against Milwaukee from this mound, and 18.8 at Cincinnati, which contrasts poorly to his previous high of 17.8 per inning through seven games, that one being all the way back on March 31 vs. the Mets. In those two games Hendrickson allowed only five runs, but he did that with mirrors - there were 15 hits, seven walks, and one HBP. Of the 50 batters that he faced he only retired 27, an alarming .460 on-base. But of the 23 batters that reached over 9.1 innings, 18 did not score. That is a strand rate that has run the pendulum out to a major extreme, and when you play with fire, eventually you will get singed. That happens tonight against a solid Arizona lineup.

Micah Owings brings base numbers almost identical to those of Hendrickson at 5-1/3.99. The comparison ends there. While Hendrickson is a journeyman hanging on to a job, Owings is an outstanding prospect. He not only has had better control than Hendrickson, but in terms of the best measurement of “stuff” it is a mismatch - Owings has 42 strikeouts to go with 42 hits allowed, while Hendrickson has struck out only 24, while allowing 54 hits. And as always Owings also brings added value because of what he can do at the plate - he is at .341 through 88 career at-bats, with nine doubles, five home runs, and 18 runs batted in.

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JEFF SCOTT

NY YANKS -147 over Baltimore

The Orioles are 9-20 in Cabreras last 29 starts as a road underdog and 4-10 in his last 14 meetings with NY, while the Yankees are 41-19 in their last 60 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and 19-7 in Mussinas last 26 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Orioles have a been a surprise team this year, but they have struggled on the road going 9-13, while scoring just 3.7 rpg and hitting only .235. Now they face a hot Mike Mussina, who is 6-3 overall, but 4-0 in his last 5 starts with an ERA of 2.76 over that span. Mussina is also 10-6 in his career vs the O's, even though his ERA is 4.62 against them. Daniel Cabrera has had a nice season for the O's, but has struggled vs the Yanks, going just 4-6 with a 4.80 ERA in 14 career starts. The O's are hot right now but the Yanks need to start winning now and with Mussina on the mound they will take game 1 of this series in a close one.

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Chris Jordan

St. Louis at SAN DIEGO -130

Weve seen a much different Mad Dog in PETCO Park, than weve seen on the road. And though Albert Pujols is heating up at the plate, I am intrigued about his clash with Greg Maddux, who has limited the Cardinals slugger to two singles in 12 at-bats since the 2006 campaign.

I know the Cardinals took it to San Diego last night, in the pitcher-friendly ball field, but I am thinking The Professor is going to bring his best stuff to the hill tonight, backing up his 1-0 record and 1.42 ERA in three starts at PETCO.

With everything going against San Diego the numbers tell the tale you have to wonder why the oddsmakers have laid the price over Madduxs head. Theyre begging you to take the underdog here, but Ill buck the trends and play the home hurler in this one, as we list Maddux and take the Friars to stun the surging Cardinals.

1* PADRES

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Tom Freese

Tampa Bay at Oakland

Tampa Bay is 11-2 when Scott Kazmir starts game two of series and they are 9-3 their last 12 games overall. The Rays are 10-2 vs. a team that allowed 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 13-6 with Kazmir vs. winning teams. Oakland is 2-6 their last 8 games vs. lefty starters and they are 2-8 on Tuesday. The A's are 0-5 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. PLAY ON TAMPA BAY w/Kazmir

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MONEYLOCKOFTHEDAY

DIGGER - REDSOX

JUNIOR - BRAVES GM 1

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Yankee Capper

3 Units - Philadelphia Phillies


GAMEDAY SPORTS NETWORK

Texas/Minnesota OVER 9.5


SportsAction365

Arizona/Florida OVER 9


NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS

Houston +110


2-Minute Warning

Boston Celtics


USA Sports Consulting

Atlanta (J.Campillo) -105

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PRICELESS PICKS

1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -143

I don't see the Red Sox falling into any post-no hitter letdown trap tonight.  If anything, they'll be looser and play even better.  Bean Town is as good a home team as you'll find and it gets our nod here.  The Red Sox are 109-43 in their last 152 home games vs. a team with a losing record, 41-13 in their last 54 games as a home favorite, and 4-0 in their last 4 overall.  The Royals are 55-120 in their last 175 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game, 31-70 in their last 101 vs. the American League East,  1-10 in Meche's last 11 starts vs. the American League East, and 1-10 in Meche's last 11 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Take the Sox.

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Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Giants/Rockies UNDER 8.5

I like the UNDER here with this combination of talented pitchers on the hill.  The Under is 6-0 in the Giants last 6 vs. the National League West, 6-1 in Giants last 7 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150, and 5-0 in Lincecum's last 5 starts vs. the National League West.  The Under is 5-0 in Cook's last 5 home starts, 6-0 in Cook's last 6 starts with 4 days of rest, and 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 overall.  Take the UNDER in this pitcher's duel.

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Tony Karpinski

Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers   

The Cincinnati Reds are in LA where they blew the game last night on errors. Converted relief pitcher Matt Belisle starts for the Reds. Belisle isn't fooling anyone this year. In 19 1/3 innings pitched he has allowed 16 earned runs on 32 hits. He is 1 - 3 on the season with a 7.45 ERA. Belisle is 0 - 1, 11.25 vs. the Dodgers. The Dodgers expect great things from Chad Billingsly. Off to a slow inconsistent start Billingsly found his game in his last start with an impressive eight inning outing. Chad will carry that into this start plus get early run support which will improve his momentum and effectiveness.The Dodgers will cruise to the easy win. 

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Ross Benjamin

Game: Baltimore (Cabrera) @ Yankees (Mussina)   
Pick: Under 8.5

The Yankees starter Mike Mussina enters the game in very good form off of his last 3 starts posting a 0.98 WHIP, a 2.60 ERA, and a 12:1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Yankees are hitting just .233 as a team over the last 10 games and have gone under the total in 30 of their 43 games this season. The orioles starter Daniel Cabrera also enters the game in very good form off his last 3 starts posting a 2.70 ERA and a better than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. In 4 starts on the road this season Cabrera has posted an excellent 2.17 ERA. Baltimore has gone under the total in 10 of their last 13 on the road versus a right-handed starting pitcher and 9 of the last 11 in the opening game of a series.

Play Under

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Evan Altemus

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees 
Pick: Under Play Title: AL Top Total

Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
Pick: Red Sox   -1.5 Title: AL Top Run Line


Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros
Pick: Chicago Cubs Title: NL Top Moneyline Play


Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
Pick: Under Title: AL Top Total


San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Pick: Under Title: NL Top Total


Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Title: NL Top Run Line

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Re: TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Ferrall

AL FREE B's FOR TUESDAY:

Minnesota -125 on ML over Texas--The Twins send Glen Perkins to the hill against Doug Mathis, who's making his fist career start.  TAKE THE OVER 9.5 RUNS.  Perkins, the lefty, has made two starts for the Twins and allowed only two earned runs in his last outing.

CLEVELAND -125 on ML over Chicago--CC Sabathia has looked sharp lately.  He's 3-2 in his last five starts after starting the season 0-3.  He's allowed one run in last 16 innings.  The White Sox have won five straight.  Sabbathia is 14-3 in his career vs the White Sox and 7-0 in Chicago.  TAKE THE UNDER 8 RUNS

RAYS -125 on ML over Oakland--Scott Kazmir las looked very sharp in his last two starts since coming off the DL and getting his huge contract extension.  He's beaten the Angels and yankees back to back.  He's 4-1 lifetime vs the A's.  He struck out 13 against them last August.


NL FREE B's FOR TUESDAY

ROCKIES -130 on ML over Giants--Lincecum gets beat by Aaron Cook in the thin air at Coors.  Colorado has won 3 straight.  SF has dropped six straight games.  SF has lost 12 of 15 and just got swept by the White Sox and then lost the first game of this series..   They've lost 3 of Lincecum's last four starts.  He leads the NL in ERA and K's.  Cook has won 6 of his last 7 starts.

Cardinals +110 on ML over Padres--Pujols is on fire and Greg Maddux will find out how hot he is tonight at Petco.  Maddux is coming off a lousy start against the Cubs, losing 4-0 and lasting only in to the 5th inning.  The Padres have lost three straight and are 16-30.  Joel Pineiro is 3-0 in his career vs the Padres.  The Cards starter is unbeaten in his last five starts, going 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA.  SD is a lousy 8-11 at home and the Cards are .500 on the road.

DODGERS -180 on ML over Reds--LA is 12-9 at home and the Reds are a miserable 7-14 on the road.  Chad Billingsley won his last start and gave up 1 run in 7 innings vs the Brewers.  The Dodgers win 60% of the games they are favored.  The Reds cash in only 34% as dogs.  Matt Belisle lost to the Mets in his last outing.

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