Monday Service Plays

Monday Service Plays

Sports Advisors

NBA PLAYOFFS

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(3) San Antonio (7-4, 5-5-1 ATS) at (2) New Orleans (7-4, 6-5 ATS)

After three days off, this best-of-7 semifinal finally plays the do-or-die Game 7 when the defending champion Spurs head to the Big Easy to take on the upstart Hornets inside New Orleans Arena.

San Antonio forced this decisive contest with Thursday’s 99-80 victory in Game 6, easily cashing as a seven-point home chalk. The Spurs shot 49.4 percent from the floor and Manu Ginobili hit six 3-pointers en route to a 25-point night, while Tim Duncan added 20 points and 15 rebounds.

The home team, just like the semifinals in both conferences, has dominated this series, as each squad is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in its building. Not only that, but all six contests have been double-digit routs with an average margin of victory of exactly 18 points per game. In fact, nine of the 10 battles this season have been double-digit blowouts, with the lone exception being San Antonio’s nine-point home win in late February.

The overall season series is now tied 5-5. And since the visitor won the first two clashes in the regular season, the home team has taken the last eight both SU and ATS. Also, the straight-up winner is 14-2 ATS in the last 16 head-to-head contests, including 10-0 ATS this year. Finally, the favorite is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings, with the chalk cashing in all six in this playoff series.

Byron Scott’s Hornets sport a bunch of positive ATS trends, including 44-22-1 overall, 37-15-1 after a SU loss, 20-7-1 as a favorite, 9-0-1 as a favorite of less than five points, 22-7 as a home favorite, 8-1 as a playoff favorite and 6-2 after three or more days off. On the downside, New Orleans is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 conference semifinal games.

Gregg Popovich’s Spurs really enjoy having some extra rest, going 20-9 ATS in their last 29 after having three or more days off. However, the rest of San Antonio’s ATS numbers are all negative, including: 1-8 on the road, 1-6 as an underdog (all on the road), 0-5 as a playoff underdog of less than five points (0-3 in this series in that role) and 3-14 as an underdog of less than five points.

The over was 2-0-1 in the first three games of this series, but the last three have stayed under the total, including Thursday’s contest falling five points short of the 184-point line. The under is also 10-4-1 in San Antonio’s last 15 as an underdog of less than five points, 18-8-1 in its last 27 against Southwest Division foes and 6-1-1 in the Spurs’ last eight after have three or more days off.

Conversely, for New Orleans, the over is on runs of 8-3-1 in the conference semifinals, 5-2-1 as a favorite, 10-2-1 coming off a double-digit defeat and 18-8-3 as a home favorite. For the Spurs, the over is on streaks 9-4-1 with them as a ‘dog, 7-2 following an ATS win, 11-4-1 as a playoff ‘dog of up to 4½ points, 4-2-1 on the road and 13-7-1 in the conference semifinals.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago Cubs (27-17) at Houston (25-20)

The red-hot Cubs send left-hander Ted Lilly (4-4, 5.33 ERA) to the mound at Minute Maid Park to face the Astros and starter Brian Moehler (1-0, 4.58) in the opener of this three-game series.

Chicago posted a 4-3 win over the Pirates on Sunday to finish a 10-game homestand with an 8-2 mark. However, Lou Pineilla’s club is just 8-9 on the highway this year, including 2-5 in the last seven.

Houston avoided the weekend sweep against in-state rival Texas with Sunday’s 5-4 win. The Astros went 7-3 on its 10-game road trip and now return home, where they’re 11-6 this season.

The Cubs beat the Astros two of three earlier this season and have won six of the last eight matchups with their division rivals. The host is 12-4 in the last 16 series clashes.

The Cubs have won each of Lilly’s last three starts and only once in his last five starts has he allowed more than three runs. That came in his most recent start against San Diego on Wednesday, when Lilly yielded four runs on six hits in six innings, but still won 8-5 at home.

For his career, Lilly is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA in three starts against Houston. He saw them twice last season and allowed a combined four runs on 10 hits in 14 innings as the squads split the two games. Finally, the Cubs are 4-1 when Lilly opens a series, but just 2-5 in his last seven on the highway.

Moehler’s made his first two starts as an Astro on the team’s just-concluded trip and allowed a combined three runs on 13 hits over 10 innings, leading Houston to wins in Los Angeles (7-1) and San Francisco (6-3). Last time he saw the Cubs was in 2006 as a starter for the Marlins and he held them to three runs on eight hits in seven innings of a 9-3 victory. For his career, Moehler is 1-0 with a 3.91 ERA against the Cubs in 23 innings of work.

Chicago is 5-2 on Mondays but just 2-6 in its last eight on the road against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, the Astros are 8-1 in their last nine at home, 5-1 in their last six against southpaws and 52-25 in their last 77 at home against southpaw starters.

In head-to-head battles between these rivals, the under is on streaks of 18-6-1 overall and 16-5 at Minute Maid Park. For the Cubs, the under is 43-17-4 in their last 64 on the road and 20-6-3 in their last 29 on the road against right-handed starters. Finally, the Astros have topped the total in seven of their last nine at home, but the under is 5-2 in their last seven against N.L. Central foes, 7-3 in their last 10 on Mondays and 9-4 in their last 13 at home against southpaws.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Tampa Bay (25-19) at Oakland (24-21)

The streaking Rays head west to take on the A’s at McAfee Coliseum, with James Shields (4-3, 3.05 ERA) ready to toe the rubber against Oakland’s Joe Blanton (2-6, 3.69) in a battle of aces.

Tampa Bay has won eight of its last 11, but comes into this one after a pair of tough late-inning losses in St. Louis, falling 9-8 in 10 innings on Saturday and 5-4 on Sunday, when the Cardinals scored all five runs in the last four innings.

Oakland is back home after a disastrous nine-game road trip that saw them go 2-7, including Sunday’s 5-2 loss in Atlanta. On the bright side, the A’s have won nine of their last 12 at home, including the last four in a row.

The Rays took six of 10 against the A’s last season, including the last three in a row (all at home). However, they are just 5-24 in their last 29 visits to Oakland and 24-56 in the last 80 series clashes.

Shields has been outstanding in four of his last five outings, giving up a total of four earned runs in 32 1/3 innings over those four starts. His other start was a disaster in Boston, where he gave up seven runs on 10 hits in 3 2/3 innings of a 12-4 loss on May 3. That defeat at Fenway Park dropped Shields to 1-2 on the road with a 6.10 ERA.

Shields beat the A’s twice last season, giving up a combined three runs on 13 hits in 16 1/3 innings, winning 12-2 at home and 4-1 in Oakland. For his career, the right-hander is 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA against the A’s, allowing nine runs (all earned) in 20 innings. The Rays are 6-1 in Shields’ last seven starts against A.L. West competition and 6-2 in his last eight against teams with a winning record, but just 7-19 in his past 26 road outings and 1-10 in his last 11 on the road against winning teams.

Blanton has struggled in front of the home fans, going 0-5 with a 3.66 ERA in seven starts. However, he has allowed an identical two earned runs in each of his last four outings, including Wednesday when he surrendered two runs on four hits in seven innings of a 2-0 loss in Cleveland.

For his career, Blanton is 2-3 with a 6.06 ERA in seven starts against the Rays. In August last season he gave up four runs on seven hits in five innings of a 14-3 road loss. The A’s are 9-4 in Blanton’s last 13 when facing a winning team, but 3-9 in his last 12 overall, 1-4 in his last five against the A.L. East and 1-6 at home this year.

Tampa Bay is on runs of 4-0 against the A.L. West but 29-75 on the road against right-handed starters and 41-96 in their last 137 away from Tampa. Oakland is in the midst of streaks of 4-0 at home, 6-0 against the A.L. East, 4-1 on Mondays and 6-2 at home against righties, but just 1-4 in the last five in Game 1 of a series.

The over is 4-0 in the last four head-to-head matchups, but the under is 6-1-2 in the last nine in Oakland. The over is 10-4 in the Rays’ first game of a series, 5-2-1 on the road against right-handers and 6-2-1 on the highway overall. For the A’s, the under is on runs of 5-0 in a series opener, 6-2-1 against the A.L. East and 4-1-1 at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY

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DUNKEL

MLB

Cincinnati at LA Dodgers   
The Reds come in riding a six-game winning streak, but run into a nemesis in LA starter Brad Penny, who has won his last seven decisions against Cincinnati and is 5-0 with a 1.48 ERA since joining the Dodgers.  LA is the pick (-165) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 3.  Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-165).   Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, MAY 19

Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Lilly) 15.206; Houston (Moehler) 16.484
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+120); Under

Game 953-954: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Myers) 15.642; Washington (Redding) 14.952
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-130); Over

Game 955-956: San Francisco at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Misch) 14.682; Colorado (De La Rosa) 13.989
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-125); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+115); Under

Game 957-958: St. Louis at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 14.245; San Diego (Ledezma) 14.943
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 959-960: Cincinnati at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.197; LA Dodgers (Penny) 16.922
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 3; 10
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-165); Over

Game 961-962: Kansas City at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 15.386; Boston (Lester) 16.780
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-160); Over

Game 963-964: Texas at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 15.117; Minnesota (Bonser) 16.054
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+110); Under

Game 965-966: Tampa Bay at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.336; Oakland (Blanton) 14.897
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130); Under


NBA

San Antonio at New Orleans
The defending champs will try to avoid elimination tonight and come into the contest with a 17-6 ATS mark since 1996 when tied in a playoff series.  The Spurs are the underdog pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has New Orleans favored by just 1 1/2.  Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+4).  Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, MAY 19

Game 537-538: San Antonio at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 125.494; New Orleans 127.060
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 1 1/2; 185 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 4; 182 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+4); Over


NHL

Detroit at Dallas
The Stars have battled back with two straight wins, including a 2-1 defensive struggle on Saturday, and look to take advantage of Detroit's 3-7 record after being held to a goal or less in the previous game.  Dallas is the underdog pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Stars favored straight up by 1/2 a goal.  Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+120).  Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, MAY 19

Game 61-62: Detroit at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.586; Dallas 13.093
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+120); Under

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Robert Ross

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals

Phillies' Myers was roughed up by Atlanta and Arizona in his last two. Even though his career numbers vs. Washington are not good, look for him to take advantage of the class drop and notch a much needed win here. Nats' Redding is 10-21 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997.

Play on: Philadelphia

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VEGAS EXPERT TIP OF THE DAY

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets

The Hornets enter tonight's deciding Game Seven with the Spurs knowing they are a perfect 11-0 vs. the number this season if playing at home with same season revenge. Home sides are a perfect 6-0 straight up/against the spread in this series with the average margin of victory greater than 18 points per game. Spurs are just 6-15 ATS as a road dog, including 3-14 if receiving six points or less from the oddsmaker.

Play on: New Orleans

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Tony Karpinski

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Under   

Both teams played long rain-delayed games on Sunday, which took forever to complete. Both teams had to travel after their games and will be tired. Washington is a pitchers ballpark and I dont expect many runs scored in this matchup. I look at the low side here and going to put a pick on the under 9 runs with Myers and Redding as the starters. Under is 17-5-2 in Reddings last 24 starts overall. Under is 17-5-2 in Reddings last 24 on grass.

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Marc Lawrence

Play On: LA Dodgers w/Penny

The Dodgers open a three game series with the Reds in Los Angeles Monday night behind Brad Penny knowing they are 11-3 the last 14 games in this series against Cincinnati, including 6-0 the last six games at Dodgers Stadium. In addition, Penny is 5-0 in his last starts against the Reds with a sparkling 1.47 ERA and - get this - 10-0 in his last 10 team starts on Mondays. With Cincy nice and fat over their three-game series sweep at home over the Indians, look for the Dodgers to grab the series opener here tonight.

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Jimmy The Moose

Game: Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have won 8 of their last 10 games. In their last 28 games as a favorite the Cubs are 20-8. Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. Chicago has won 4 of Lilly's last 5 starts. The Astros have also been red hot of late. Houston's Brian Moehler has statred 2 games for the Astros this season and they have won both but expect him to struggle vs. this Cubs lineup. Houston is 1-4 in the last 5 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Chicago Cubs -.

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Big Al McMordie

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics    
Play: Oakland Athletics   

At 10:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Oakland Athetics over the Tampa Bay Rays. Now that the short interleague schedule is complete (there will be more interleague games, but not until the middle of June), it's back to intraleague contests for a while. This is a very intriguing one with two teams that so far have surprising winning records and that are generally considered to be playing a bit over their heads. Both Tampa and Oakland can point to some young, talented starting pitching as the reason why they are doing better than expected almost 1/3 of the way into the season. And tonight's pitching matchup is proof of that with righthanders James Shields and Joe Blanton facing off against one another. And although Blanton is the elder at 27 years (vs. Shields at 26), he is still developing as a starter and we probably have not yet seen the best of him. Shields is a low-ERA starter with very good strikeout numbers, but he has been having some major problems when he pitches away from his home park, which is strange as Tropicana Field is thought to be one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the Majors. Nonetheless, Shields' numbers on the roard are abysmal at 1-2 with 6.10 ERA in 20 2/3 innings. Blanton has pitched very well but has been victimized by poor run support in most of his starts this season. But that is beginning to change a bit when Oakland plays at home, and they have been very dominant there lately, taking nine of their last twelve games at McAfee Coliseum. Tampa Bay is 5-24 in its last 29 games in Oakland. Take the A's.

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JB's COMPUTER PICKS

Boston Red Sox - 165

Washington Nationals + 110

St. Louis Cardinals + 140

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PPP/Gavazzi


5% San Antonio-New Orleans Under 182

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Will Sykes

6* San Antonio Spurs ML GOM

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Jefferson Sports

MLB Early Releases

Cincinatti+139
St. Louis+146
Texas+105

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Cappers Access

Hornets

Astros

Twins

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EZWINNERS

MLB

1 STAR: (961) KANSAS CITY (+$150) over Boston
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $150)

1 STAR: (966) OAKLAND (+$104) over Tampa Bay
(Listing Blanton only)
(Risking $100 to win $104)

NBA

10 STAR: (537) SAN ANTONIO (+4) over New Orleans
(Risking $1100 to win $1000)

5 STAR: (537) SAN ANTONIO (+$155) over New Orleans
(Risking $500 to win $775)

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ATS Consultants

Newsletter Plays

St. Louis over San Diego - Best Bet

Under in the TB/Oak game - Preferred Play

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Gator Report

MLB 70% Super Situations  (MLB Record 12-4 +760 units)

MLB (12-4 +760) Monday:   Play Over MLB home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 with a team outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season against an opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings.53-21 Over last 5 seasons (71.6%)   

PLAY: Cincinnati / LA Dodgers OVER 8.5 (-110)

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Jim Feist

CIN Reds/LA Dodgers
Take Under

The Reds are 11th in the NL in runs scored...and they play in a hitter friendly park. Now they head way out to the West Coast to play in a big, pitcher friendly park, Dodger stadium. LA is 5-3 under the total the last 6 games while Cincy is on an 8-5 under run. Both veteran starting pitchers know how to throw strikes, which is key in a big park like this. Play the Reds/Dodgers under the total.

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Dave Cokin

TEX Rangers/MIN Twins
Take TEX Rangers

Scott Feldman has been a nice surprise for the Rangers. While I doubt he maintains his present form, he's a better bet right now that Minnesota righty Boof Bonser. Bonser simply cannot or will not trust his stuff enough to attack the inner half of the plate, and the results have been predictable. The Rangers are the choice to top the Twins."

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Karl Garett

For Monday, I will ride the streaking Cubs to pick up the road win in Houston.

Chicago has been a winner in 8 of their last 10 games, and starter Ted Lilly has come on strong with 3 straight wins, while recording a whopping 22 strikeouts in his last 13 innings of work!

Houston was lucky to dodge the broom yesterday in Texas, as the Astros nearly blew a 5-0 lead. The problem for the 'Stros is they went through a ton of pitchers this past weekend, and tonight's starter Brian Moehler has not worked past the 5th in either of his first 2 starts this season.

Chicago has won 2 of 3 off Houston already this season, and the G-Man likes the Cubbies to open this set with the win tonight.

Take the Cubs to continue their uptick.

4* CUBS

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DCI

Western Conference Semifinals
Game 7, best-of-7
NEW ORLEANS 95, San Antonio 90


Western Conference Finals
Game 6, best-of-7
DALLAS 3, Detroit 2

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