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VEGAS EXPERT Tip of the Day

Cleveland Indians at Cincinnati Reds 

The Indians are just an Under machine at this point having gone Under in 13 of 14 contests this month. Today's starter Fausto Carmona has allowed just 13 earned runs all season long and is coming off a complete-game shutout on Monday afternoon. That's nothing new for the Tribe, who are 12-2 Under in day games this season. Reds starter Aaron Harang will also do his part as he's gone 15-3 Under all-time in Interleague Play.

Play on: Under

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Chris Jordan

Houston -115 at TEXAS 

Were going to back hard-throwing Roy Oswalt, as Houston has won five of his last six starts and in each of those outings hes held the opposition to three earned runs or less. On Monday, he was money, giving up just three runs while scattering five hits over eight frames of a 7-3 victory in San Francisco. He enters this Lone Star-state battle with a 4-3 record and a respectable 3.53 ERA in nine career starts against the Rangers.

And hell no doubt be looking to avenge last seasons 7-2 loss, in which he gave up just three runs on eight hits in 6-1/3 innings. He?s generally been quality in this series, as hes held the Rangers to three earned runs or less in seven of his nine starts against Texas more importantly, the Astros are 6-3 in his nine starts against the Rangers. Lay the road chalk.

5* ASTROS

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Matt Rivers

Take the White Sox by the Bay.

How can you not go against Barry Zito here? I'm not saying that the former Cy Young award winner isn't overdue for a win but overall the guy is just not right and his San Francisco team is awful.

The Giants are as bad as they come with slow mediocre veterans like Molina, Winn, Durham and others and fairly untalented young guys like Velez, Lewis, etc.. There is absolutely nothing appealing about Bruce Bochy's squad now that Barry Bonds is gone. These guys have actually overachieved to the max so far this season and are still well below. 500.

Ozzie Guillen's Sox are not the team that won the World Series a few years ago, I fully admit that, but they are also much better than the terrible season they had last season. Chicago has powerful bats with Thome, Konerko, Pierzynski, Crede and others and should be just fine here against the struggling and reeling Zito.

Mark Buehrle is also a former Cy Young award winner who is not pitching up to his usual standards but this southpaw has not been as dismal as Zito. Buehrle still has the ability to hurl a gem at the drop of a hat and especially here against this weak Giants lineup.

If Zito somehow gets that elusive first win, which he will at some point, then so be it, but I really do not see it happening today and certainly not at this cheap price.

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Jeff Benton

Play the Mariners and ace Erik Bedard on the run line (-1? runs) against the Padres.

I know I went against Bedard in his last start at Texas, and the Rangers delivered a wild 13-12 victory, with Bedard getting rocked for six runs on seven hits (two HRs) in two innings ? easily his worst and shortest outing of the season. But that game was in Texas (a notorious hitters? park) against the Rangers (a potent offense). Tonight, he?s back at home at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field (where Bedard has a 1.45 ERA in three starts), and he?s facing the worst offense in baseball (no team has scored fewer runs than San Diego, which hits just .233 as a team, including .212 against left-handers).

It should come as no surprise, then, to learn that the Padres carry a bunch of negative slumps into this contest, including 7-21 overall, 7-20 on the road, 5-17 as an underdog and 0-4 against left-handed starters (not to mention 2-6 in their last eight games in Seattle).

Now, while the Padres have struggled against lefties, the Mariners have thrived, batting .300 overall and .333 at home against southpaws. Tonight, Seattle gets to tee off against lefty Randy Wolf, who had a 1.42 ERA after his first three starts, but in his next five has given up 23 runs in 26 1/3 innings, with that 1.42 ERA ballooning to 5.16. And what do you know, the Padres are 0-4 in Wolf?s last five outings, including 0-3 on the road after Monday?s 12-3 loss at the Cubs.

Bottom line: Because I don?t want to lay this kind of chalk and because I think the Mariners? bats will get to Wolf, we?ll play this game on the run-line and take a little plus money back when Seattle wins by at least two runs.

4* SEATTLE MARINERS

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Jake Timlin

Chicago Cubs -1 1/2 Runs

Starting the day off a winner take the Cubs on the Run Line as they blowout away the Pirates. After all with the Cubs 7-4 victory to open the series Chicago is now an impressive 7-1 over their last 8 home games, including winning all 7 games against the Pirates this season with all but one game by more then 1 run. Well making it 8 straight wins in a blowout look for the Cubs to limit the Pirates behind Zambrano and his 6-1 record and 2.03 ERA while continuing to get production from their offense and off of Duke who allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings of work just one month ago to the Cubs. Flat out with the Cubs rolling at home and the Pirates a bad road team look for Chicago to continue their hand at home today. All Chicago in a blowout!

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Tony Weston

We?re nailing another easy winner tonight as we?re going with the Chicago White Sox over the San Francisco Giants.

The White Sox kicked off this interleague series last night by blanking the Giants 2-0 in San Francisco. That win upped the Sox winning streak to three games and gives them a 6-3 record over their last nine games.

The Giants come into tonights game 3-9 over their last 12 games and are 3-5 their last eight home games.

Oh yeah, and taking the hill today for San Francisco is Barry Zito-for-the-season. Zito is 0-7 this season with a 6.58 ERA and the Giants are 0-8 this season in Zitos starts. Also consider that in Zitos starts the Giants have been outscored by an average score of 5.5-1.5.

The Sox will drill Zito and hand him and the Giants another loss. Take Chicago on the road.

3* WHITE SOX

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Scott Delaney

Orioles over the Nationals.

I understand full and well that Brian Burres has been terrible in his last three starts, going 0-3 after allowing a total of 10 earned runs over 17 innings of work. But this isnt about him although I do think he has a chance in this battle of D.C. its about a Baltimore team that has reeled off three straight wins and six of its last seven. The Os are finding ways to win, like in last nights 5-3 victory in the series-opener, and come into this one having won 13 of their last 18 at Camden Yards. Theyre also 4-1 the last five times Burres has started on a Saturday.

The young southpaw is 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA in his two home starts this season, and should out-pitch Odalis Perez. The Nationals don?t perform too well on Saturdays, as theyre now on a 1-5 skid the last six weeks, while theyre on a 2-11 run in their last 13 Interleague games against AL teams sporting winning marks. And when it comes to Perez, Washington is 1-4 in his last five road starts.

4* ORIOLES

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Strike Point Sports

DEVIL RAYS / CARDINALS UNDER

Friday's game was low scoring, and I see this one staying under the posted total as well. Matt Garza has looked really good his last couple of outings, and Adam Wainwright will come to play at home. The under has hit in Matt Garza's last four starts, while also staying under in ten of Wainwright's last 16 home starts. Starting pitching comes through here, and we'll see a score indicative of two strong efforts on the mound.

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DUNKEL

MLB

Washington starter Odalis Perez has pitched the Nationals to wins in his last three appearances and looks to take advantage of Baltimore's Brian Burres, who has has lost his last three starts.  The Nats are the underdog pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has Washington favored straight up by 1.  Dunkel Pick: Washington (+110).  Here are all of today's games.

SATURDAY, MAY 17

Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.887; Cubs (Zambrano) 17.361
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 2 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-220); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-220); N/A


Game 953-954: Tampa Bay at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 16.030; St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.860
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+110); Under


Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 13.742; Boston (Wakefield) 15.612
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-175); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-175); Under


Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Park) 13.928; LA Angels (Santana) 16.453
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-155); Under


Game 959-960: NY Mets at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 15.649; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.092
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 961-962: Cleveland at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carmona) 15.702; Cincinnati (Harang) 16.453
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); Over


Game 963-964: Washington at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Perez) 16.023; Baltimore (Burres) 15.447
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+110); Under


Game 965-966: Toronto at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Burnett) 15.643; Philadelphia (Eaton) 14.247
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-105); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-105); Over


Game 967-968: Kansas City at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 15.101; Florida (Olsen) 17.187
Dunkel Line: Florida by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-115); Under


Game 969-970: Oakland at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Harden) 15.231; Atlanta (Hudson) 17.047
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-130); Under


Game 971-972: Houston at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oswalt) 16.758; Texas (Padilla) 15.801
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-110); Over


Game 973-974: Minnesota at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hernandez) 15.612; Colorado (Reynolds) 14.530
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-125); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+115); Under


Game 975-976: Detroit at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Galarraga) 15.358; Arizona (Scherzer) 14.602
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+115); Under


Game 977-978: Chicago White Sox at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 14.341; San Francisco (Zito) 15.080
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+125); Under


Game 979-980: San Diego at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Wolf) 14.724; Seattle (Bedard) 15.464
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-145); Over


Game 981-982: Milwaukee at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 13.995; Boston (Matsuzaka) 16.989
Dunkel Line: Boston by 3; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


NHL

Dallas at Detroit
The Red Wings look to wrap up the series after dropping Game Four in Dallas and come into the contest with a 20-9 record when revenging a loss versus an opponent.  Detroit is the pick (-255) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 2.  Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-255).  Here are all of today's games.

SATURDAY, MAY 17

Game 57-58: Dallas at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.931; Detroit 13.748
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-255); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-255); Over

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Wise Guy Insider 

QUADRUPLE DIME BASEBALL WINNER 20-6 RUN 
Arizona w/Scherzer -130 9:05 EST

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Michael Cannon

Detroit at ARIZONA -135)

Take the Diamondbacks for the home win tonight over the Tigers.

Not sure what's happening with Detroit this year.  They have stumbled out of the gates to the tune of a 16-26 mark, which has them dead last in the AL Central.

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, have been tearing it up in the desert.  They are in first place in the NL West with a 27-15 record.

The Tigers have lost seven straight on the road and 11 of 13 overall.

Arizona, meanwhile, has won four in a row and owns an 18-7 mark at home this year.

Max Scherzer will start for Arizona and he's looked good since his call up.  The first-round pick in 2006 has struck out 18 batters in 14 1-3 innings since being called up.

Detroit will counter with Armando Galarraga, who has tailed off a bit after a fast start to the season.  The right-hander is 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA over his last three outings.

Take Arizona as they grab the home win.

3* ARIZONA

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Nelly

Minnesota + over Colorado

The Twins are 26-8 in the last 34 interleague games and this ballpark suits the Minnesota lineup perfectly with a lot of space for the solid contact hitters and speed for the Twins. Minnesota is 8-1 with Hernandez on the mound and he is backed by one of the top bullpens in baseball. Minnesota delivered a big win last night to snap a three-game losing streak but in reality all three losses to Toronto could have gone either way in close games. Greg Reynolds is essentially an emergency starter for the banged up Rockies and he was hit hard in his first outing. Colorado is just 7-11 at home this season and despite the ballpark edge the Rockies have worse overall offensive numbers than Minnesota and just a slight edge in home runs despite Minnesota?s small-ball mantra. Colorado has lost six straight games and the Rockies continue to be overvalued while underachieving.

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Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
 
TOP RATED BASEBALL WINNER
Chicago White Sox w/Buehrle -130

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Dave Malinsky 6*

Brewers (RL) @ Boston (RL) May 17, 2008 3:55PM
PICK: Boston (RL)

Does a little rain change this one? Not at all. Except for costing us a few pennies in the lay price (of course), the unfortunate “Bookmakers Prerogative” for such occasions. And the less said about that the better. So we re-cap yesterday’s analysis -

Here is a chance to use the best of what Inter-League play brings, and that also means time to go to our Top Rating in a game that the Red Sox should not just win, but win big.

Ballpark adjustments are one of the major elements of these games, and few places are tougher from a practical standpoint, and more intimidating, than Fenway. That can become magnified by a fragile Milwaukee team that plays poor defense (watching Ryan Braun deal with this wall can provide some comic relief this weekend), and one that has a weak bullpen to have to gut through the tough late innings. We would make them the classic kind of team to be vulnerable here, especially with the hittable Jeff Suppan on the mound (less than six innings per start; 4-11/5.78 on the road the last two seasons), who forces that struggling bullpen into action early. And then there is the flip side.

As tough as Fenway can be on the first trip, Daisuke Matsuzaka is also among the toughest customers to face on the first look. In 2007 he was 10-6/3.18 the first time against an opponent, and 5-6/5.75 on subsequent looks, He was also a razor-sharp 3-1/2.00 against N.L. opponents in Inter-League play, before also getting a solid win at Colorado in the World Series. This season he is off to a sparkling 6-0/2.45, with only 28 hits allowed in 47.2 innings, while striking out 40, and his four Fenway starts have been won by a combined 26-8. A free-swinging Milwaukee offense is not going to get in the way of that form, and with Jonathan Papelbon rested and ready it does not get any easier in the latter innings - he has not been scored on at Fenway this season, with twice as many strikeouts as Hits + Walks combined.

The Red Sox are 18-9 as -1.5 in Inter-League play at home the last three seasons. the fact that we can play this one in a “pick’em” range makes it easy to step things up.

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Chuck Franklin

Cleveland at CINCINNATI   

Adam Dunn's bat is waking up and the Reds have won four in a row, including the opener in this interleague, interstate match-up against Cleveland.  The Indians pitching has been amazing recently, going on a 43-inning stretch when the starters had not allowed a run.  But home team Cincinnati will win again.  This time it will be with Aaron Harang over Fausto Carmona.

Being from the American League, Harang has a career 3-1 record with a 2.38 ERA in seven starts against the Indians.  The Reds are 5-1 in Harang's last six interleague starts.  They have won five in a row at home and four in a row versus a righty starter.
   
The Indians are on a 3-7 run when on the road versus a team with a winning record at home and they are only 2-5 the last seven interleague games played when facing a right-handed starter.
   
Take the home team and specify the pitchers as listed.

3* CINCINNATI

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Alex Smart

Seattle Storm -7

One of the most improved teams in the WNBA during the offseason was the Seattle Storm, thanks to the addition of three time MVP Sheryl Swoopes, and 1999 League MVP Yolanda Griffith via free agency, and all star forward Sin Cash from Motown who comes here, via a trade with Motown for their 4th pick in this years draft. With 6 '5 super star Lauren Jackson and Sue Bird returning , inconsistent league opponents like the visiting Chicago Sky are big trouble, and very likely to be on the wrong side of a lop sided score. Final notes & Key Trends: Seattle has won all 4 meetings in this series, by an average of 14 PPG , with lowest margin of victory clicking in at 11 PPG. Play on the Seattle Storm 

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LT Profits

Florida Marlins -115

The Florida Marlins have now lost four straight after a very hot start, while the Kansas City Royals have won five straight after taking the series opener last night, but we feel that has given some nice line value to the Marlins here.

We are huge fans of Florida southpaw starter Scott Olsen, who is 4-1 with a nice 2.63 ERA and 1.08 WHIP so far, with the Marlins as a team going 7-1 in all of his starts. Olsen has three scoreless outings in his last six starts, and he allowed just one run in one other outing. Even if Olsen is in need of relief, the Marlins still rank 10th in the Major Leagues with a bullpen ERA of 3.41, which barely makes them a Bullpen System play in this spot.

Now Brian Bannister is usually solid for the Royals, but he has had terrible difficulties on the road lately. In his last two starts away from home, Bannister was lit up for seven earned runs in just three innings in Texas, and for five earned runs in five innings in Oakland. Throw in the fact that the Marlins reached him for four runs and nine hits in six innings in Kansas City last season, and we look for the Florida offense to have some success tonight.

That should be all the support that Olsen and the fine Marlins pen need.

Pick: Marlins -115


Minnesota Twins +115

The Minnesota Twins improved to 26-8 in their last 34 interleague games by beating the Colorado Rockies here last night, and we look for that success to continue tonight with Livan Hernandez on the bump.

Hernandez is 6-1, albeit with a mediocre 3.90 ERA, and the Twins are 8-1 in all of his starts. He does have three straight Quality Starts though, all of them Minnesota victories, and he has a much better 2.05 ERA over those outings. Also, Hernandez has five Quality Starts in his last five appearances vs. the Rockies, with two of those coming here in the altitude of Colorado.

The Rockies counter with rookie Greg Reynolds, who was not impressive in his Major League debut at San Diego. Reynolds allowed four earned runs and eight baserunners in 5.2 innings vs. what is currently the worst-hitting team in baseball, and the jury is still out on how he will handle pitching in Colorado.

Finally, the Rockies have now lost eight consecutive interleague games, and we are not convinced they deserve to be favored here.

Pick: Twins +115

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Larry Ness

Kansas City Royals @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Florida Marlins

REASON FOR PICK: Kansas City opened the season by winning six of its first eight games but had fallen six games below .500 (15-21) before winning its fifth straight last night, 7-6 in Florida. The Marlins began the week 23-14 but have lost four in a row, while allowing 24 runs. They are hoping that Scott Olsen can get them turned around tonight and why not? The lefty has rebounded from last year's poor 10-15 season to go 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA in eight starts. The Marlins have won SEVEN of those eight starts, as Olsen has kept opponents in check all season, allowing just 38 hits over his 54.2 innings. KC will send Brian Bannister to the mound. Bannister opened the '08 season almost unhittable, going 3-0 with an 0.86 ERA (allowed just 10 hits and two ERs over 21 innings)! However, he lost that 'magic' very quickly, dropping four consecutive starts, while allowing 33 hits and 19 ERs over 21.1 innings (8.02 ERA). KC is hoping that last Sunday's start (8 IP / 2 hits / 0 runs) against Baltimore (4-0 Royals win) will get Bannister "back on track" but I'm not completely sold. The Royals have scored just 153 runs (3.73 per), which is the second-fewest in MLB and I don't expect them to get much here vs Olsen. I'm backing Olsen and anticipate that the Marlins will end their four-game losing streak and snap KC's five-game winning streak, all at the same time. Take Florida.

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Wizard of Odds

TOP RATED BASEBALL PLAY OF THE DAY
LA ANGELS w/Santana -158

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  Scott Rickenbach

NHL 1* OVER the total in Detroit vs Dallas

After scoring 11 goals in the first three games of this series, the Red Wings were held to just one goal in Game Four. Detroit lost that game in Dallas by a 3-1 final and, after having their offensive onslaught temporarily halted, we look for them to bounce back in a big way tonight! The Red Wings are plenty capable of putting on a huge showing offensively at the Joe Louis Arena and this has been a house of horrors for goalie Marty Turco of the Stars. The Dallas netminder still is winless in his NHL career here and he?ll be facing a Red Wings team that is looking to lock this series up by leaving no doubt on the scoreboard! The word out of Detroit is that they will go on the attack right away in this one and never let up. They certainly wont be playing cautious as they want to bury the Stars and advance to the next round.

With the Stars still suffering with some key injuries, the Red Wings can absolutely take advantage! However, besides the prohibitive price on the Red Wings here, the reason were on the over rather than Detroit is because Dallas has proven theyre not going to go down without a fight. They battled hard to notch three goals in Game Four and they also scored two goals in the first two periods of Game Three before falling short on home ice in that game. The Red Wings are going to put pressure here on the Stars by looking to score early and often. This will quickly force the Stars to answer so that taking chances and gambling a bit will have to be a part of the Stars philosophy today. This means that this could quickly become a high scoring affair as Dallas will have to gamble knowing its their last chance to ?hang around or it will already be their time to start a summer vacation! Play OVER the total in Detroit as a regular selection.

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