FRIDAY SERVICE PLAYS

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Rocketman Sports

LA Dodgers @ LA Angels
3* LA Angels -125

Joe Saunders is 6-1 with a 2.48 ERA overall this year, 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA at home this year and 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA his last 3 starts. LA Angels are 5-1 at home vs LA Dodgers the past 3 years. We'll play the LA Angels for 3 units tonight

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Tony Weston

We're switching gears and focusing on some NBA action and looking at the Eastern Conference as the Boston Celtics hit the road to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Right off the bat, take the Cavs.

Over their last nine meetings the Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS against the Celtics and are 5-1 ATS their last six meetings, including a three-game winning streak ATS.

In that stretch the Cavs are 2-0 SU in the playoffs against Boston with wins in Games 3 and 4. So far in 11 postseason games the Cavaliers are only 6-5 SU, but are 8-3 ATS, including a 4-1 mark ATS and SU at home.

The Celtics, on the other hand, are 5-7 ATS so far in the postseason and are 0-5 ATS on the road.

It'll be another road loss ATS for Boston.

Take the Cavs at home tonight.

4* CAVALIERS

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Black Magic Sports

1 Unit on Rays/Cardinals Over 9

Tampa Bay is 44-25 OVER in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.  Tampa Bay is 9-0 OVER in road games in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons.  Braden Looper is 18-7 OVER in night games over the last 2 seasons.  St. Louis is giving up 5.7 runs per game over their last 7 games.  This will be a high scoring affair against the Rays’ hot offense.  Tampa Bay is also 9-1 OVER in road games vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 over the last 2 seasons.  Cash in with the OVER 9 runs.

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Black Widow Sports

1* on Astros/Rangers UNDER 10.5

The odds makers have got this one all wrong.  Two of the best starting pitchers on the Astros and Rangers’ staffs go toe-to-toe tonight in Game 1 of this interleague contest.  Shawn Chacon has a 2.81 ERA in 5 road starts this season.  Sidney Ponson has a 3.16 ERA in 4 starts for the Rangers this year.  With both of these solid starters hurling tonight, there is no way you will see a double-digit run total by game’s end.  Texas is 16-4 UNDER (+11.4 Units) with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons.  Chacon is 23-8 UNDER (+14.4 Units) vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game since 1997.  Take the UNDER 10.5 runs.

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Bob Akmens

Seattle Mariners +105

This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 162 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.

The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.

Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows –

Without analyzing this game to death, based on one stat alone, this line is absurd.

Curt Young and the Padres are as much as a -115 favorite as the offshore books.

How about the fact that the last 10 times Curt Young started a game on the road, the Padres have a…….drumroll here…..1-9 road record!

So, is it amazing that the Pads are favorites here?

And it’s not like Miguel Batista is some sort of bum at home, either.

The Mariners have won 4 of his last 6 and 6 of his last 10 home starts.

So why is the line what it is? Because both teams have virtually identical overall rotten W-L records. And the public tends not to look much past that sometimes meaningless stat.

And the linemaker correctly perceives that the public will believe Curt young is the better pitcher here. Which he may very well be if they were in San Diego tonight – but they’re not.

The Padres have a woeful 7-17 road record (that’s 29% wins, folks) and Young sure as heck is no prize on the road at 9 Padre losses in his last 10 starts.

Go with the MARINERS as a short +105 dog

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Mike Rose

San Francisco Giants +103

Gavin Floyd will look to bounce back from his rough outing his last time out against Seattle, and try to look more like the pitcher that nearly pitched a no-hitter against Minnesota back on May sixth. He comes into this start 3-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He’s allowed 29 hits and 19 runs (16 earned) with a poor K/BB ratio of 19/20 in a little over 43 total innings of work. He’s had trouble on the road thus far going 1-2 with an ERA of 4.57 and a WHIP of 1.43. He faced the Giants as a member of the Phillies back on 2006, but is yet to go up against them in interleague play as a member of the White Sox.

Opposing him will be the Giants Jonathan Sanchez who will be making his ninth start of the season. He only sports a 2-2 mark, but the Giants have gone on to win six of his eight total start. He’s surrendered 37 hits and 24 runs to his opponents in a shade over 43 innings of work, and has proven to be a strikeout pitcher already fanning 46 batters on the year. At one point in April, he had only allowed a total of six earned runs and the Giants won five of his starts in a row. However, May has been a completely different story as he’s been rocked in each of his starts and hasn’t made it passed the fifth in either game. This will be his first ever start against the Chicago White Sox.

Chicago is 0-5 the last five times they’ve competed in an interleague match-up as the favorite, and they’re 2-7 their L/9 on the road against a sub .500 team. The Giants are 4-1 their L/5 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter, and they’re a perfect 4-0 in Sanchez’ L/4 starts as a home underdog.

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Ted Sevransky

Minnesota Twins @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Over

REASON FOR PICK: It’s not hard to make a strong case for the Over when two weak pitchers face off against two hot hitting offenses in a ballpark that has been producing runs in bunches in recent weeks. Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez has been on my ‘play against’ list for much of the season. Jimenez has been nothing short of a disaster area this year: a 5.53 ERA and 1.82 WHIP only hint at how bad he’s actually been, with the Rockies stumbling to a 1-7 record with Ubaldo on the hill. His 38-28 strikeout to walk ratio gives us a real picture of his early season struggles, in sharp contrast to his stellar run during Colorado’s amazing stretch run last year. The Rockies would send Jimenez down to Triple A to get more seasoning, but they are out of options on him, and they don’t want to run the risk of another team claiming him on waivers. Look for the feisty Twins offense (50 runs scored in their last nine games) to stay hot tonight, with sparkplug Carlos Gomez and masher Joe Mauer both expected back in the lineup today after a day off yesterday.

But the Rockies should be able to trade runs with the Twins here. Colorado, too, has been swinging the bats much better of late, pounding out 43 runs over seven games on their last homestand after scoring 33 runs in their six prior home games. They’ve been crushing righties like Minnesota’s Nick Blackburn all year, hitting .287 and scoring more than five runs per game against them at Coors Field. Blackburn has been hit hard in each of his last four starts: 34 hits and 16 runs allowed. And, with only 14 strikeouts in his last six starts, the ability for Rockies hitters to make contact is bad news for Blackburn and the Twins. We’re getting a very reasonable total to bet Over here, with the wind blowing in, but I don’t expect that wind to be a factor at all with these two struggling hurlers on the hill. Take the Over.

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LARRY NESS

New York Mets @ New York Yankees
PICK: New York Mets

REASON FOR PICK: The Yankees own the best interleague record of any team in MLB (113-79) but enter this three-game series with the Mets, still without A-Rod and Jorge Posada. The Yanks (now 20-22) just lost three of four in Tampa to the red-hot Rays, scoring a total of just six runs in the four games. After leading all of MLB with a .290 team BA last year and scoring a league-high 968 runs (5.98 per), the Yanks are hitting just .258 this year, while averaging only 4.12 RPG. The Mets are just 20-19 so far in '08 and have gone only 25-35 vs the hated Yankees in interleague play. Last off-season it was the Mets, not the Yanks, who were able to sign Johan Santana and he gets the start tonight. Santana was "booed off the mound" at Shea back on April 12, after allowing six hits and five runs in 6.2 innings against Milwaukee. However, he's 3-0 in five starts since then (Mets are 5-0), posting a very solid 3.13 ERA. Santana is also 16-4 with a 2.27 ERA in interlague games (34 appearances, including 24 starts) and should be tough on a Yankee lineup that's 4-7 vs left-handers in '08, averaging a pathetic 3.2 RPG. Opposing him will be Darrell Rasner. Rasner made 12 appearances (nine starts) for the Yanks the last two years, going 4-4 with a 4.20 ERA. He began this year in the minors but is 2-0 in two starts since being called up. He beat Seattle at home and Detroit on the road, lasting six innings while allowing two ERs in each outing. Rasner will find himself in a little over his head here against Santana, especially with the Yankee lineup at less than 100 percent attempting to back him up. Go with Santana and the Mets.

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JB's COMPUTER PICKS

Florida Marlins - 120

Arizona Diamondbacks - 140

Los Angeles Angels - 130

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GINA

Boston Celtics (73-21) at Cleveland Cavaliers (51-42)

The Cavaliers are 4-1 both straight-up and against the spread at home in the playoffs, while the Celtics are 0-4 both straight-up and against the spread on the road. Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in the last eight battles against Boston at home.

Cleveland Cavaliers


Los Angeles Lakers (64-27) at Utah Jazz (60-33)

The home team is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings and Utah is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 battles against Los Angeles at home..

Utah Jazz


MLB

Milwaukee Brewers (20-21) at Boston Red Sox (24-19)
 
The Boston Red Sox are coming off a disappointing road trip, 4-6 last 10 on the road, but they are back at Fenway Park and will send Daisuke Matsuzaka to the hill tonight. The right-hander is 6-0 with a 2.45 ERA, unbeaten in 11 starts. Milwaukee counters with Jeff Suppan. The right-hander allowed one run and six hits over seven innings in a 5-3 victory against St. Louis in his last start on Sunday, first win in seven starts. Go with the Red Sox. Boston has played well in interleague action, 105-88 all-time and is 14-3 in Matsuzakas' last 17 starts, 7-0 in his last 7 at home. The Brewers have lost their last 6 road games.

Boston Red Sox -210

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Big AL

NBA 3* Celtics

MLB Opinion on Baltimore

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Indian Cowboy POD

Cleveland/Boston OVER 179

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Ben Burns

MLB Cincinnati Reds -116 4 units

MLB Colorado Rockies -125 4 units

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Erin Rynning

MLB St. Louis Under 9

MLB Colorado Under 10

MLB Playmaker: Seattle Under 8.5

NBA Passing

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Vegas-Runner  5* NBA PLAYOFFS TOTAL of the YEAR
UTA / LAL Over 212.5 

Guys the only reason that I didn't post this immediately was because I was still trying to get a better feel for what the market will do later on as the game approaches...and because the books that I spoke to so far claim to need this side also, we may be able to get an even better number to go OVER with...I have seen a few move on and off of 212 throughout the day so it seems to have stabilized

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Larry Ness' Weekly Wipeout Winner-NBA
Utah

any hew ness' Big 20* Interleague Lock wink

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Dave Malinsky  4* play

Cleveland Indians @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Cincinnati Reds

The Cleveland Indians have garnered a lot of publicity for that recent run of brilliance by their starting pitchers, and deservedly so. And when you put some wins together in dramatic fashion, respect can be granted in the betting marketplace, even when it is not deserved. Like here. Hidden in the recent Indian run is that this is a team with a lot of problems, and we can exploit them in this setting.

While the Cleveland starters were working so well, how many noticed that the offense continues to be a disaster (13 runs in the last five games), and that the bullpen has major issues? As bad as Joe Borowski was as a closer things have been perhaps even worse without him - they wanted Rafael Betancourt to take over that rule during Borowski’s absence, but his ERA has ballooned to 7.31, and he had to be bailed out by Masahide Kobayashi in the 9th inning yesterday. Now they plan to turn to Kobayashi in the role, but he has had only one road appearance since April 24th, and in that one he only faced three batters at Yankee Stadium (allowing a home run in the process).

The bullpen will absolutely be needed behind Jeremy Sowers, and we doubt that they ever get to a closers situation. While Inter-League play often means a tough time for hitters reading pitchers that they have not seen before, the luck of the draw has Sowers going up against the Reds for the 4th time. The last three have been dismal - a 9.60 ERA over 15 innings, with Cincinnati batters knocking a pair of home runs in each of them. And while the Indians have managed to build a winning streak together with little offensive punch, the Reds bring in a 3-0 in which they scored 20 runs against what had been a hot Florida team, which means that Sowers is likely over-matched again.

After exploding onto the scene at the start of the season Johnny Cueto has fallen on hards times of late, but we like his stuff, and the corresponding price adjustments easily get us behind him here. This will be the first look for the Indians against his explosive stuff, and because of yesterday’s rain-out it also means that the entire Cincinnati bullpen is rested and ready behind him. Their task is not all that difficult against a lineup with five starters batting .235 or less, and while Victor Martinez shows that .333 average, he has yet to hit a home run this season.

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Fairway Jay

MLB Nationals/Orioles Under 8.5 3 units

NBA Lakers/Jazz Under 213 4 units

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LT Profits

MLB Oakland Athletics +130 2 units

MLB Minnesota Twins +115 2 units

MLB LA Dogers +115 2 units

NBA Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 2 units

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Bob Balfe

NBA Basketball
Celtics +2.5 over Cavs
Cleveland will miss Daniel Gibson tonight. Gibson aka Booby has a great three point shot and without him the Cavs obviously will be taking points off the board. In a defensive type series this is a huge disadvantage for the Cavs. Boston's veteran experience will step up to the task tonight. The Celtics need a road win to boost their confidence if they expect to get into the next series and have a shot. Take the Celtics.

Lakers +3.5 over Jazz
Kobe would love to end tonight's series so he can rest his sore back up for the next series. The Jazz have struggled from the foul line in the postseason and it could haunt them in a game like tonight. The Jazz battled hard in game five, but could not take the lead in LA. Look for the Laker roll players to step up and to get the road victory. Take L.A.


Major League Baseball
Phillies -135 over Bluejays
Moyer/Purcey


Savannah Sports

2 Units on Atlanta -155
2 Units on LA Angels -130

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