FRIDAY SERVICE PLAYS

FRIDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Gator Report


NBA 70% Super Situations  (NBA Record 20-11 ATS +790 Units)

NBA

NBA (Playoffs 2-2 -0.20) Friday:  Play Under NBA home teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points after covering the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.41-16 Under since 1996 (71.9%)  PLAY: Boston / Cleveland UNDER 178.5


MLB 70% Super Situations  (MLB Record 10-3 +670 units)

MLB

MLB (10-3 +670) Friday:  Play Against MLB (NL) road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a team batting average <=.255 against a team with a bullpen whose ERA <=3.75, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse on the season.42-8 since 1997 (84%) PLAY: Chicago Cubs -135

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SPORTS ADVISORS

NBA PLAYOFFS

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Boston (7-5, 5-7 ATS) at (4) Cleveland (6-5 SU, 8-3 ATS)

The defending Eastern Conference champion Cavaliers hope the home court continues to hold form in this series as they try to fend off elimination in Game 6 against the Celtics at Quicken Loans Arena.

Boston remained perfect at home in the playoffs Wednesday night by pulling away in the third quarter, then fending off a late Cleveland run for a 96-89 victory, but failing to cover as a nine-point chalk. The Celtics countered LeBron James’ 35 points by getting 29 from Paul Pierce, 26 from Kevin Garnett, 20 from Rajon Rondo (who had 13 assists) and 11 from Ray Allen.

Boston has been struggling at the betting window lately, with a 4-7 ATS mark in its last 11 games – all in the playoffs. Cleveland, meanwhile, is 4-1 ATS in this playoff series and 5-1 ATS in its last six starts overall.

The Celtics lead the season series against the Cavs 5-4, but Cleveland is 7-2 ATS (5-1 ATS in the last six meetings). The home team is on a 10-0 SU tear (9-0 this season) but is just 5-5 ATS in that span. That said, the Cavaliers cashed in a pair of double-digit blowout wins over Boston in Games 3 and 4 and they’re 6-2 ATS in the last eight matchups at the Q (3-1 ATS this season). Finally, the underdog is on an 8-3-1 ATS run in this rivalry.

Both teams have contributed to a staggering overall statistic in the second round of this year’s playoffs: The home team is an eye-popping 20-1 SU and 16-4-1 ATS, with Detroit – which has already eliminated Orlando to advance to the Eastern Conference finals – the only team to post a road win.

Doc Rivers’ Celtics are 0-5 SU and ATS on the highway in this year’s playoffs and they carry a plethora of negative pointspread streaks into Game 6, including 1-7 in conference semifinal games, 1-5 against teams with a winning SU record, 1-4 on one day of rest, 1-4 as a playoff pup of less than five points, 1-4 after a SU win and 2-8 as a playoff underdog (0-2 this season). On the positive side: Boston is 19-7 in its last 26 games as an underdog, 40-16 in its last 56 as a road pup and 11-5 in its last 16 when catching less than five points.

The Cavaliers are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 after a spread-cover and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 contests at home against teams with a winning road mark. However, the pointspread trends turn positive from there, including 7-0 as a playoff chalk of less than five points, 6-1 as a playoff favorite of any price, 5-1 in conference semifinal games, 5-1 on one day of rest, 4-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 at home.

The over is 4-1 in Boston’s five road playoff games this year, but after that, the under for the C’s is on runs of 15-6 against the Central Division, 5-2 as a road ‘dog and 7-3-1 when catching less than five points in the playoffs. For Cleveland, the under is on a bevy of streaks, including 12-5 overall, 19-7 at home, 14-4 with the Cavs a home chalk, 13-3 in conference semis, 13-5-1 after a SU loss and 12-5 on one day of rest. However, the over is 23-11-1 in the Cavs’ last 35 games when giving less than five points.

Finally, the under is 3-2 in this playoff series (1-1 in Cleveland) and has cashed in four of the last six meetings going back to the regular season, though Wednesday’s game hurdled the 176-point posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER


WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1) L.A. Lakers (7-2, 6-2-1 ATS) at (4) Utah (6-5, 5-5-1 ATS)

Los Angeles, which again held serve at home in Game 5, will try to close out this series on the road in Game 6 at the EnergySolutions Arena, where Utah has posted an NBA-best 41-5 record this year.

The Lakers had all five of their starters score in double figures Wednesday night in holding off the Jazz 111-104, though they failed to cover as an 8½-point home chalk. Kobe Bryant’s ailing back didn’t prove too troublesome, as he finished with 26 points, and Lamar Odom had a double-double with 22 points and 11 boards to help offset 27 points and 10 assists from Utah point guard Deron Williams.

Los Angeles, which had won 10 straight games (9-0-1 ATS) before going to Utah for Games 3 and 4, is now just 0-2-1 ATS in the last three games. Meanwhile, despite cashing in its last two games, Utah is still just 3-5-1 ATS (4-5 SU) in its last nine starts.

Los Angeles is 6-3 SU (5-3-1 ATS) against Utah this season and 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 contests. The home team is on a 6-2-1 ATS run in this rivalry and is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 battles overall, with the winning team cashing in all but two of those 15 games. Finally, the Jazz are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 clashes in Salt Lake City.

The Lakers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six Friday contests, but the pointspread trends are nothing but positive from there, including 8-0-1 after a SU win, 7-1-1 as a road underdog, 4-1-1 on one day of rest, 6-2-1 in conference semifinal games, 21-8-2 as an underdog and 35-17-2 on the highway.

The Jazz also sport of bevy of positive ATS streaks, including 14-3-1 as a home chalk of less than five points, 6-0-1 as a playoff favorite of less than five points, 7-2-2 overall as a playoff favorite, 8-3 after a spread-cover, 38-13-2 as a home chalk of any price and 39-15-2 at EnergySolutions Arena.

Wednesday’s clash just cleared the 212½-point posted price, pushing the over to 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in this rivalry. For Los Angeles, the over is 13-6 in its last 19 after a non-cover and 10-4 in its last 14 Friday matchups, and the over for Utah is on runs of 23-8 against the Pacific Division and 10-4 against winning teams. However, the under trends for both teams include 4-0 with L.A. catching points, 5-1 after a Lakers SU win, 4-1 on the road for L.A., 4-1 with the Jazz playing on one day of rest and 18-7 for Utah after a SU loss.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH


INTERLEAGUE

N.Y. Mets (20-19) at N.Y. Yankees (20-22)

The Mets send star left-hander Johan Santana (4-2, 3.10 ERA) to the hill against the cross-town rival Yankees and a much-less experienced right-hander in Darrell Rasner (2-0, 3.00) to open a three-game interleague series at Yankee Stadium.

The Mets head to the Bronx after having dropped three of four at home against Washington, getting shut out 1-0 on Thursday in the series finale. They have lost four of their last six games. The Yanks, meanwhile, lost three of four games at Tampa Bay, including Thursday’s 5-2 setback to cap the series, and they are 3-6 in their last nine games.

These two teams split their two series in 2007, with each winning three games and each taking one contest on the road. In fact, over the last three years, the series is tied 9-9, with the home team going 10-8. However, the Yankees are 18-7 in the last 25 head-to-head clashes in the Bronx.

Santana, who will make his ninth start of the season, has helped the Mets to wins in each of his last five starts, going 3-0 with a pair of no decisions. On Saturday against Cincinnati, he scattered 10 hits and allowed three runs in six innings as New York won 12-6 at home. Santana is 3-1 with a more-than-respectable 2.38 ERA in five starts on the highway this season, and he is 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in five lifetime starts (eight appearances) against the Yankees.

Rasner, a 27-year-old who has just 12 starts and 19 total appearances over the past four years, moved back into the rotation this season and has won both his outings. He allowed two runs on four hits in six innings Saturday in a 5-2 win at Detroit, which followed a two-run, five-hit effort in an 8-2 victory over Seattle on May 4. Rasner is 0-1 against the Mets, having given up two hits and two runs before suffering a hand injury without recording an out in a 10-7 loss last May. That ended up being his final big-league of the 2007 season.

The Mets are on streaks of 9-4 as a road favorite, 4-1 as an interleague chalk, 8-3 in Friday contests, 5-0 with Santana starting a series opener and 4-1 with Santana a road favorite. On the negative side, the Mets are 10-26 in their last 26 interleague roadies and 6-19 in their last 25 on the highway overall.

The Yankees are on impressive runs of 23-5 at home facing lefties in interleague play, 47-14 in interleague home games, 14-6 at home against winning teams, 37-16 at home after a road trip of seven or more days, 6-2 as an underdog, 4-1 in Rasner’s last five starts against winning teams and 5-2 in Rasner’s last seven starts overall. However, the Yanks are in slumps of 1-5 as a home pup, 1-5 in interleague play, 1-5 in series openers and 2-7 on Friday.

With Santana pitching, the over for the Mets is on streaks of 5-0 in series openers and 5-1 overall. Behind Rasner, the over is 4-1 for the Yankees against winning teams, but the under is 5-2-1 in his last eight outings overall.

The “over” trends run heavy for the Mets, including 6-3 overall, 4-1 in interleague road games, 8-3 against losing teams, 18-6 on the highway against losing teams and 12-5 as a road chalk. The under, though, is 11-4-1 in the Mets’ last 16 interleague games against losing teams, 40-19-5 in their last 64 Friday contests and 27-13-3 in their past 43 an interleague favorite.

For the Yankees, the under is on streaks of 40-10-1 overall, 5-0 in the Bronx, 6-1 with the Yanks as a ‘dog, 4-1 on Friday, 8-2 in interleague play against winning teams, 4-1-1 in series openers and 13-5 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS


L.A. Dodgers (21-19) at L.A. Angels (24-19)

Right-hander Hiroki Kuroda (1-2, 3.59 ERA) will toe the slab for the Dodgers when they travel to Angel Stadium to face the neighboring rival Angels, who will hand the ball to solid left-hander Joe Saunders (6-1, 2.48) to start a three-game interleague set.

The Dodgers enter this series having just taken two of three on the road against Milwaukee, losing the opener and winning the next two, including a 7-2 rout Thursday afternoon. Those wins snapped a five-game slide for the Dodgers, who are just 4-6 in their last 10.

The Angels have dropped six of their last eight games after Thursday’s 4-3 setback to the White Sox, which capped a four-game home series.

The Angels took five of six in this Southern California rivalry last season, sweeping a three-game home series in May. Each of the Angels’ five victories came by at least three runs, as the Halos bookended the six games with a 9-1 home win and a 10-4 road win. The Angels are 7-1 in the last eight clashes against the Dodgers and 17-5 in the last 22 battles at Angel Stadium.

Kuroda, a Japanese hurler in his first year in the majors, is making his ninth start of the year, but he hasn’t gotten a decision in more than three weeks. The Dodgers are 3-1 in his last four starts, all no-decisions for Kuroda, who yielded just one run on one hit in 6 2/3 innings Sunday, then watched his bullpen implode in an 8-5 home loss to Houston. Kuroda’s 1-2 mark this year has all come on the road, where he has a 2.81 ERA.

The Angels prevailed in each of Saunders’ first seven outings of the year, with the starter nabbing six wins and a no-decision. On Saturday, Saunders allowed just one run on four hits in six innings at Tampa Bay, but the Angels gave him no offensive support in a 2-0 loss. Saunders, who has never faced the Dodgers, is 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA in four starts at home this year, improving his brief career home numbers to 11-5 with a 4.43 ERA in 16 starts.

The Dodgers are on an 8-0 tear against left-handed starters and are 5-0 in their last five roadies against lefties, 6-2 in their last eight series openers and 7-2 in their last eight on the highway. But the trends turn negative from there, including 19-37 as a road underdog, 14-37 as an interleague pup, 10-29 overall in interleague play, 4-23 in interleague road matchups and 1-10 against lefties in interleague play.

The Angels sport a bunch of positive trends, including 10-1 in interleague home games, 14-3 as an interleague chalk, 7-1 against the National League West, 5-2 as a favorite, 4-2 at home and 35-17 at home against winning teams. In addition, the Angels are 21-8 in Saunders’ last 29 starts overall, 4-0 with Saunders starting at home, 5-0 with Saunders favored, 12-2 in Saunders’ last 14 series openers and 11-2 with Saunders going on five days’ rest.

The over is on streaks of 4-0 in Kuroda’s last four starts on four days’ rest, 6-1 with Saunders going on five days’ rest, 4-1-1 for Saunders in series openers, 5-2-1 against winning teams and 9-4-1 with Saunders a favorite.

In addition, the over for the Dodgers is on runs of 9-2 on Friday, 18-6 in series openers, 5-2 in roadies against winning teams, 10-4 overall against winning teams and 5-2 in interleague play. The under, though, is 35-17-3 in the Dodgers’ last 55 interleague road games. For the Angels, the under is on spurts of 18-8-2 overall, 11-4-1 at home and 7-2-2 on Friday, but the over is 5-2 in their last seven in interleague play.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and OVER

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James Patrick Sports

Royals vs. Marlins

The Royals hit the road for Inter-League action and they send Brett Tomko and his 7-2 career mark against the Red Hot Fish. We’ll take the Major League Baseball version of the Blue Man Group as they are a rock solid 4-1 on the road against southpaws to date this season. Our Friday selection in Major League Baseball is Kansas City Royals.

Dave Cokin

Rays @ Cardinals
Play: Rays +105

The Tampa Bay Rays were one of my strongest Over plays on win totals this season, so I'm naturally ecstatic over their early season play. They may not be a playoff team just yet, but the talent level on this team is dramatically improved and they're on fire right now. The Rays can't let down as they hit the road off a terrific home stand, but assuming they're ready to play, I like their chances tonight with Sonnanstine opposing Cardinals righty Braden Looper. I'll go for the small dog odds with the Rays.


Marc Lawrence

Play On: LA Angels w/Saunders

Note: A critical cross town battle takes place in the city of Angels Friday night when the Halos send steady Joe Saunders to the hill against the Dodgers in the opening game of this three game Interleague series. With Saunders 4-0 with a 2.79 ERA at home, and 4-1 at night with a 1.42 ERA, this season, look for the Angels to improve to 18-3 at home on Fridays and to 17-4 as a host in this series here tonight.


Tom Scott

Boston at CLEVELAND
Play ON: UNDER the total points

In the first five games of this series, at least one team was held to less than 90 points and Cleveland's 108 point outburst last Saturday was the only time either team hit 100. Today will be no different. There is that old reliable 62+% angle that we use over and over again in these events telling us to play the under. And there is Boston's road performance in Cleveland in this year's playoffs. The Celtics got 84 in the first game and a meager 77 in the second because of Cleveland's defensive intensity on this floor. Look for that intensity to get cranked up a couple of notches with Cav sixth man Daniel Gibson on the shelf for tonight's game. Another snorer.

PREDICTION: TOTAL POINTS SCORED - 168


BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS

Play on: Oakland over Atlanta

It's been a consistent winner on the first day of IL wars, the classic "trap game." Tonight the Braves set with the home field and pitching edge. Plus their red hot appear ready to make a run at the NL East, a division that has many suitors. Still, the surprising Oakland club (23-19) has shown unexpected results thus far, while seemingly pulling out a major underdog profit when least expected. So, this is a classic spot for the visitor, an over priced chalk (Atlanta) who has gone 1-11 in IL play at home versus a winning baseball team. Take Oakland.

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Jimmy The Moose

Game: New York Mets at New York Yankees
Prediction: over

Reason: The Mets have played over the total in 6 of their last 9 games. The over is 6-2 in their last 8 interleague games. The Mets played over the total in 4 of their last 5 interleague road games. In their last 17 as a road favorite the over is 12-5. The over is 6-2 in Santana's 8 starts this season. The over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between the clubs. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in the Bronx. Play the over.

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Big Al McMordie

Minnesota Twins vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Minnesota Twins   

At 9:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Colorado Rockies. These first interleague games are going to be a very interesting test to find out some things about the quality of the two leagues. If the National League is really that much better this season (as many purported baseball people have been saying) then weaker NL teams with losing records should be very competitive against AL squads with significantly better records. The general feeling is that there is much more competition in the NL with several high-quality clubs (Arizona, St. Louis, NY, Phily, Florida, Houston) while the AL really only has two standouts, the Red Sox and Angels, with everyone else as an also-ran. Thus a team with a .500 record in the AL should be about equal to a 15-25 team in the NL. Such is the case with this matchup tonight, and indeed Colorado has been installed as a clear favorite as a result. Well I'm not buying it. I think a team like Minnesota that is well disciplined and coached should be able to come into the house of a 15-25 team and walk away with a "W", especially when the pitching matchup appears to favor them. Righthander Nick Blackburn has a winning record and a very nice 3.93 ERA on the year, while Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez has been simply dreadful and the Rockies are 1-7 in games which he's started. And the Twins recently showed that they do in fact belong with the Red Sox, even if their record doesn't indicate it, as they took three of four games from Boston just last weekend. Take the Twins.

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Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5

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WINNING SPORTS

Pittsburgh Pirates/Chicago Cubs "Over"

Reason: Put us down on the Pittsburgh Pirates/Chicago Cubs "Over" for our Free MLB Selection on Friday. Today we expect a high-scoring game as the Pittsburgh Pirates do battle with the Chicago Cubs. One reason why we expect a high-scoring game is because both these teams will be sending to the mound struggling starting pitchers. This says it all... The Pittsburgh Pirates Starting Pitcher (Tom Gorzelanny) has a 5.97 ERA this season, while Chicago Cubs Starting Pitcher (Sean Gallagher) has a 6.48 ERA this season. To say the least, both these pitchers will most likely give up many runs once again today. The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and we expect to see another high-scoring game today! Take the Pittsburgh Pirates/Chicago Cubs Over!

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Tony Mathews

Kansas City Royals vs. Florida Marlins

Selection: Florida Marlins -140

Explanation: We will side with the Florida Marlins as they face-off against the Kansas City Royals in Friday's MLB contest.

The Kansas City Royals will use starting pitcher Brett Tomko. Brett Tomko has struggled this season. In fact, Brett Tomko is 1-4 with a 5.67 ERA on the season. We see Brett Tomko having another bad game today.

The Florida Marlins will use starting pitcher Scott Olsen. Scott Olsen has pitched very well this season. In fact, Scott Olsen is 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA on the season. We see Scott Olsen having another great game today.

Take the Florida Marlins!

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Jim Feist

LA Lakers @ UTH Jazz
Take Under

The Lakers are one of the Top 6 teams in the NBA defensively, allowing 46% shooting by opponents. The Jazz should bring their 'A' game defensively with so much at stake in a Game 6, as they either win or their season is over. Also, Kobe Bryant has back trouble and after shooting 13-of-33 in Game 4, he was only 6-of-10 in Game 5. Play the Jazz/Lakers under the total

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John Fina

Pittsburgh Pirates/Chicago Cubs "Over"

Today we expect a high-scoring game as the Pittsburgh Pirates do battle with the Chicago Cubs. One reason why we expect a high-scoring game is because both these teams will be sending to the mound struggling starting pitchers. This says it all... The Pittsburgh Pirates Starting Pitcher (Tom Gorzelanny) has a 5.97 ERA this season, while Chicago Cubs Starting Pitcher (Sean Gallagher) has a 6.48 ERA this season. To say the least, both these pitchers will most likely give up many runs once again today. The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and we expect to see another high-scoring game today! Take the Pittsburgh Pirates/Chicago Cubs Over

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Bobby Maxwell

Tonight it's interleague action and we have a complimentary play on the Dodgers as they visit the crosstown rival Angels.

We're playing the Dodgers in this matchup as they just crush left-handed pitching this season and they get one that is always around the plate tonight. The Dodgers should get enough runs to get the job done.

The Angels' lefty Joe Saunders (6-1, 2.48 ERA) is on the mound tonight and he's been great this season. But the problem for him comes in that the Dodgers love to face southpaws. They are hitting .316 on the road against lefties and .308 overall against them. There is no worry when the opposition trots out a lefty against the Dodgers.
Plus there will be some revenge on the minds of the Dodgers as they lost five of six to the crosstown rivals last season.

Hiroki Kuroda (1-2, 3.59 ERA) goes for the Dodgers tonight and he has been stellar all season. Only once this season has he allowed more than three earned runs in a start in he held Houston to one run on one hit in 6.2 innings of work on Sunday, even though the bullpen blew up and lost the game 8-5.

Kuroda will do the job on the hill and look for the Dodgers' bats to get four or five runs off Saunders. Play the Dodgers and enjoy the plus-money winner when this one is over.

3* L.A. DODGERS

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Jim Feist

CLE Indians @ CIN Reds
Take Under

Cleveland's pitching staff has been terrific, especially the bullen, while the offense hasn't yet clicked. That's why the Indians are on a 15-3-1 under the total. The hit and miss Reds lineup won't find the going easy against Indians ace Fausto Carmona, who is 4-1 with a 2.40 ERA. Cincy is 11-7 under the total at home and starter Aaron Harang has been outstanding with a 3.32 ERA. Don't look for any offense in this Interleague game with a pair of aces on the mound. Play the Indians/Reds under the total

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THE POWER INDEX

Boston even with Cleveland*

Utah* 3 over L.A. Lakers

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DCI

NBA

Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 6, best-of-7
Boston 93, CLEVELAND 91

Western Conference Semifinals
Game 6, best-of-7
UTAH 110, L.A. Lakers 108

NHL

Western Conference Finals
Game 5, best-of-7
DETROIT 3, Dallas 2

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Carlo Campanella

Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia (22-19) starts Moyer on the mound against Toronto (20-22) on Friday knowing that he has lost 2 of his last 3 starts against Toronto, getting shelled for 28 hits for 17 earned runs in only 15 innings of work! Toronto starts left hander, David Purcey, against a Philly team that's just 9-7 against southpaws this season and that combination is enough to back the dog here as Toronto enters this on a 3-game winning streak.

Play on: Toronto

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Vegas Experts

Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies

The Blue Jays don't score much to begin with (just 3.8 runs per game), but that number really dips against southpaws, against whom they average just 2.7 runs per contest. They'll be facing the ageless Jamie Moyer this evening, a veteran of interleague play that's gone 22-9 Under in these contests. Toronto bats must get lost in between road trips because the team is 12-3 Under Away off BB road games.

Play on: Under

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Alex Smart

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers Under 10.5

Shawn Chacon the Astros right-handed hurler here today against the Rangers has made six quality starts, this season, which is the most from his teams entire pitching rotation. He does not have any wins to show for it, but his stable 2.81 ERA is indicative of his 5 quality away efforts. His pitching opponent from the Rangers Sidney Ponson has for the most part ,also been in good form , recording a 2-0 record along with a stingy 3.16 ERA in 4 starts. I expect these two hurlers should help keep this contest on the low side of the number. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 9-2 in Astros last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter like Ponson. Under is 5-1 in Rangers last 6 home games with the total set at 9-10.5 .

Play UNDER

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Cappers Access

Cavaliers

Lakers

Cubs

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SportsKingz

MLB

BOSTON R/L -125         
FLORIDA -135           
ANGELS -130             
ARIZONA -140             
CLEVELAND +115         

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CHARLIES SPORTS

San Diego @ Seattle

The Seattle Mariners hope the start of interleague play will help them build on a rare victory.The Mariners look to win two in a row for the first time in almost a month, and try to continue their strong play against the NL when they open a home series against the San Diego Padres tonight, Seattle wins-105.

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