TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Re: TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Jeff Benton

This ones all about line value that exists for two reasons: 1) the Dodgers have cooled off big time lately, losing four straight games, all at home, including getting swept over the weekend by the Astros and 2) L.A. starter Brad Penny is coming off one of the worst starts of his career, as he got tagged for 10 runs (all earned) on 10 hits in just 4 2/3 innings of work, losing 12-1 to the Mets on Thursday. But prior to that particular game, the Dodgers had won 10 of their previous 11 games. Also, in his four previous starts, Penny had gone 4-0 with a 2.66 ERA. What's more, Penny flat dominated the Brewers in his one start against them last year, pitching seven scoreless innings, allowing six hits and two walks in a 5-1 win. In fact, the Dodgers are 3-0 in Penny's three starts against Milwaukee since he arrived in L.A. As for Milwaukee starter Carlos Villanueva, here's all you need to know: The Brewers are 1-5 in his last six trips to the mound, including blowout losses to the Astros (7-4) and Marlins (7-2) in Villanuevas last two contests. In those two, the righthander yielded 13 runs (all earned) on 19 hits (including SIX home runs) in just 10 innings of work! Finally, Villanueva is 0-3 with a 7.16 ERA in four night games this year; Penny is 4-1 with a 3.34 ERA under the lights. Pretty easy call, here: The Dodgers, who are on a 39-19 run against the Brewers, get back on the winning track in this one.

3* LA DODGERS

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Strike Point Sports

The Cubbies put a beatdown on Randy Wolf in the series opener, and look for another one-sided affair at Wrigley Field on Tuesday. Shawn Estes, yes I said Shawn Estes, is pitching for the Padres, so that gives you an idea of how desperate this team is right now. Chicago continues to produce as one of baseball's best offenses. We'll see that them put together another winning effort at home.

CHICAGO CUBS -150

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Re: TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Tony Weston

I mean who wouldve figured that at this point in the season the New York Yankees would be looking up to the Tampa Bay Rays in the standings Very few people outside the Rays organization wouldve guessed that much, but thats where were at. The Yankees are a game under .500, while the Rays are six games over and 3 1/2 games ahead of New York in the AL East. These teams have played seven times this season and though New York holds a 4-3 advantage, four of those games were played in the first week of the season when both teams were playing more like their old selves. But after hammering the Yankees 7-1 last night, the Rays will get over again tonight and hand Chien-Ming Wang his second loss of the year. Including last nights loss the Yankees are 2-4 their last six games and are 7-10 their last 17 games, including a 3-5 mark on the road in that stretch. Over that six-game stretch the Yankees have averaged just a little more than three runs a game (3.1), while allowing more than four (4.3). The Rays, on the other hand, have won five straight games and are 6-1 their last seven, outscoring their opponents 34-19. Tampa is also 14-7 at home where their pitchers have a 2.97 ERA. Tampa will add to the Yankees recent woes and widen that gap in the standings. Take the Rays at home.

2* TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS

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Michael Cannon

NY Yankees -140 at TAMPA BAY   

Take the Yankees as the road chalk tonight over the Rays.

I acknowledge how well the Rays are doing right now, but this pitching matchup is not to their benefit.

Chien-Ming Wang will start for the Yankees and he?s been lights out this year.  The right-hander is 6-1 with a 3.12 ERA.  The Yankees have also fared very well when their ace takes the hill, going 20-6 in Wang?s last 26 road starts and 41-15 in his last 56 outings overall.

Tampa Bay will start Edwin Jackson, who is 2-3 with a 4.04 ERA on the season.  The Rays are only 12-27 in the right-hander?s last 39 starts and 7-15 in his last 22 starts as an underdog.

For the Yankees, Wang is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in three road starts this year and 7-4 with a 3.53 ERA in 12 career starts against Tampa Bay.

Take the Yankees as they deliver the road win.

3* NY YANKEES

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William Kidd Guaranteed Selections

QUADRUPLE BASEBALL AL GAME OF THE MONTH
Kansas City w/Greinke -115

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PlusLineSports

Boston Red Sox ( Beckett) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Guthrie)

Boston Red Sox -1.5

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Yankee Capper

3 Units - Oakland Athletics

2 Units - Pistons/Magic Over 186

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Wunderdog

Pittsburgh  at Philadelphia
Pick: Game Total OVER 5.5 -125

We like this game to go OVER. The Penguins allowed 2.8 goals per game on the road this season while the Flyers allowed 2.8 at home and scored 3.2 at home. Philly is averaging 3.4 per game in the playoffs. In post All-Star play, the Flyers are 30-17 OVER the past two seasons against winning teams. That includes a 13-5 OVER mark against teams at .600 or better and a 17-7 OVER mark against good goalies that save 91.5%+ of shots on goal. This season the Flyers are 24-12 OVER after having won 4+ of their last six games. We'll take the OVER here.

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Priceless Picks

1 Unit on Seattle Mariners -107

The M's have had a rough time on the road this season but I like them tonight with Hernandez dealing.  The Mariners are 20-6 in Hernandez's last 26 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game, 11-5 in Hernandez's last 16 starts vs. the American League West, 4-0 in Hernandez's last 4 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5, and 8-3 in his last 11 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rangers are only 6-13 in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 5-15 in their last 20 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Bet the M's on the road tonight.

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Dave Malinsky

Boston (RL) @ Orioles (RL)
PICK: Orioles (RL)

In cashing a 4* Run Line ticket against the Red Sox with Minnesota last night, we were able to deal with the usual market bias of a “public” road favorite having the Run Line adjusted a bit too far, and also of just how over-rated Boston is in the role. Now it is time for more of the same, as we get the ability to take Jeremy Guthrie and a fully rested Baltimore bullpen +1.5 in basically a pick’em range.

Here are the numbers for the Red Sox away from Fenway the past two seasons - 43-70 as -1.5 on the road, including 8-14 this season. But because they have those World Series rings, and Josh Beckett is taking the mound, they carry a reputation far beyond that, which creates our value. But it has not been merely a case of not getting margins on the road this season; they have lost 12 of those 22 games outright, and are now caught in the rare scheduling lay-out of nine straight road games without a day off.

Meanwhile the Orioles will perceive this as a major opportunity at only 3.5 games out of first place in the AL East, buoyed with the confidence of a 10-6 home opening to the season. They had Monday off after a road trip of their own, and now send the dependable Guthrie to the mound. Since he entered the starting rotation full-time on May 8 of LY he has become a classic “battler”, keying a run of 23-10 as +1.5 over 33 starts, a span in which he has allowed three runs or less 26 times. He worked to a solid 2.41 over 18.2 innings against the Red Sox LY, and for the second straight season is allowing fewer hits than innings pitched, showing the kind of stuff that he can bring. Matched with a defense that is currently #1 in the Major’s on our best set of ratings he can continue his form, and with the entire bullpen rested and ready, this one does not break open.

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Gamblers Data

Cubs


Donald Tran

New York Yankees -135


Jennifer Barry

LA Dodgers -105


Chad Jordan

San Antonio at New Orleans Over 186.5


SPORTS MEMO

DODGERS / BREWERS OVER


USA Sports Consulting

MARLINS   145


Winning Colors Picks 

Hornets -3


Valley Sports 

Indians -130 


Sports Book Edge 

Dodgers/Brewers Ov.8.5

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Re: TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Ferrall

AL FREE B's FOR TUES:

TEXAS +105 on ML over Mariners--Gabbard knocks off Felix Hernandez in Arlington.  The Rangers have looked great lately, going 8-3 in last 11.

ROYALS -125 on ML over Tigers--Kansas City's Greinke keeps having an incredible run.  He's 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA.  He's 7-3 career vs Detroit.  Greinke has struck out  21 in his last 3 starts while allowing only 6 earned runs.

Toronto -105 on ML over Minnesota--Litsch is 4-1 with a 4.24 ERA.  He's won 2 of his last 3.  Slowey gets lit every time out for the Twins.  His ERA is 6.48.  TAKE THE OVER 9 RUNS


NL FREE B's FOR TUES:

DODGERS -115 on ML over Milwaukee--Brad Penny beats Villanueva in Brew Town.  Penny is 5-3 overall and 2-1 in his last 3 starts.  Villanueva is 1-4 with an 8.44 ERA in his last 3 outings.   TAKE THE OVER 9 RUNS

Pirates +135 on ML over Cardinals--TAKE THE UNDER 9.5 RUNS and go with Dumatrait over Kyle Lohse.  The Bucs young starter has looked sharp, going 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA.  He's allowed only 4 earned runs.  Lohse has been  terrible lately, going 1-2 in last 3 and allowing 16 earned runs.  The Cardinals have dropped 5 of 6 and arent hitting or scoring runs over the last week.

Houston +110 on ML over Giants--How can you not take the  Astros right now ?  They've won 10 of 11 and rallied from down 3-0 last night in SF to win again.  Lance berkman is on FIRE , hitting .641 in May.  He's scored a run in 15 straight games.  The Giants are 5-12 vs the NL Central.

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SportsKingz

MLB

BOSTON -175       
YANKEES -145       
DODGERS -115       
K.C. -125         

NBA

DETROIT -6.5       
NEW ORLEANS -3     

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JeffMoney

Yanks -135 (POD)
Mets Un 8.5, -115
Royals -125
Hornets -3.5

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Erik Scheponik

San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: San Antonio Spurs     

Aware that home teams have absolutely destroyed it in this year's playoffs, especially in this 2nd round (15-1 SU, 14-2 $), but we'll buck that here in support of playoff experience. The Spurs have been in this situation seemingly every season for the last decade, while the Hornets simply have not. Now San Antonio wasn't any more dominant at home the last two games than the Hornets were the 2 games before that, but can New Orleans come back with the same confidence and composure the way San Antonio did? Spurs are the better defensive team in this series, and as this series gets deeper and deeper that should be the key. Line on the way up, and we'll play contrarian. New Orleans by only 1 

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Tony Karpinski

Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals   

Detroit at KC (Baseball Action) 8:10pm ET Looking to avenge a series sweep that got their season off on the wrong foot, the last-place Tigers hope to trade places with the Royals in the AL Central on Tuesday night when these teams open a three-game set at Kauffman Stadium. Detroit (16-22) missed the playoffs last season, a year after reaching the World Series, and responded by making a blockbuster trade in the offseason. Acquiring Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from Florida for six prospects helped make the Tigers a popular pick as the AL's best team going into the season. The KC Royals are playing solid ball and getting good pitching from their starters and relievers. Pick on the KC ROYALS 

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LT Profits

Philadelphia Phillies -135

The Atlanta Braves are just 5-14 on the road this season, so they should have their hands full when the visit the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.

Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick may have a high 4.93 ERA, but that figure is skewed by a couple of short outings earlier in the year. Kendrick has now found his form however, with three Quality Starts in his last four appearances, and he allowed two and three runs respectively in his two career starts vs. the Braves, which both came last season. Also, should Kendrick need some relief, Philadelphia now leads the Major Leagues with a bullpen ERA of 2.75.

Jo-Jo has been erratic for the Braves, and his 2.25 ERA is extremely deceptive considering his horrible 1.75 WHIP. We have always felt that WHIP was the much truer indicator of a pitcher’s ability, so it is more likely that Reyes’ ERA will rise to line up with his poor WHIP than the other way around. Also, their may be some fatigue involved for the Braves, who played a doubleheader yesterday.

Look for Kendrick and the fine Phillies bullpen to keep the Atlanta bats in check here.

Pick: Phillies -135


Florida Marlins +150

Edinson Volquez of the Cincinnati Reds certainly looks like the real deal, but he also looks overpriced here vs. Mark Hendrickson and the surprising Florida Marlins.

Yes, Volquez is 5-1 with a 1.06 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP overall, and he has yet to allow more than two runs in a game. However, while he did toss seven scoreless innings at the Chicago Cubs in his last start with 10 strikeouts, he did also walk six batters, resulting in a season high 118 pitches thrown. Thus, it would not be inconceivable for Volquez to be slightly off of his game tonight, and given the struggles of the Cincinnati offense this season (last night notwithstanding), and less than perfect outing may not result in a Reds win.

This is because Florida starter Mark Hendrickson is also off to a fine start at 5-1 with a 3.56 ERA, and his fine WHIP of 1.25 is on par with Volquez. Hendrickson has now gone seven consecutive starts without allowing more than three earned runs, and even if he is in need of support, the Marlins are currently tied for third in the Major Leagues with a bullpen ERA of 3.18, making them a Bullpen System play in this spot.

Florida has their seven-game winning streak snapped here last night by a narrow 8-7 score, bu we look for them to start a new streak at a great price tonight.

Pick: Marlins +150

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GINA

Orlando Magic (57-34) at Detroit Pistons (66-26)

Orlando is 1-3 on the road in this year's playoffs and a horrible 1-11 in Motown. Look for the Pistons to close the curtains on Orlando tonight in Game 5, at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Detroit has won and covered the spread in the first two game at home versus the Magic and are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five fights with Orlando at the Palace.

Detroit Pistons

Detroit Pistons - 6½
New Orleans -3

MLB

San Diego Padres (14-25) at Chicago Cubs (23-15)

The Padres have dropped five straight away from home, just 6-15 on the road this year and have lost 12 of the last 17 meetings in Chicago. San Diego will send Shawn Estes to the mound. The lefthander will make his first major league start in over two years. He is 5-3 with a 5.70 ERA in 12 career starts against the Cubs, his former team. 

Chicago has won five of their last six games and five of its last six at home. They will counter with Jason Marquis. The right-hander has struggle in his last two starts, 1-2 with a 5.08 ERA. Marquis is 3-2 with a 3.38 ERA in six career starts against the Padres.

Go with the Chicago Cubs tonight at Wrigley Field. The Cubs will be facing a sorry road team with limp bats.

Chicago Cubs - 165

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Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -149

The Cards have been one of the best home teams in the league in the early going while the Pirates have been one of the worst on the road.  We'll take the Red Birds at home tonight as they look to rebound from a series loss to the Brewers.  First of all, the Pirates are 17-41 in the last 58 meetings and 8-21 in the last 29 meetings in St. Louis.  The Cardinals are 25-11 in their last 36 games as a home favorite, 11-5 in their last 16 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, and 12-5 in their last 17 games following a loss.  The Pirates are an eye-popping 27-72 in their last 99 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  That's just not getting it done on the road.  They are also only 19-45 in their last 64 games as a road underdog.  The Pirates have made some improvements this season but they are still your dog's chew toy on the road.  Take the Red Birds here.

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