SUNDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Re: SUNDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Indiancowboy NBA Playoff Sunday Research
Lakers vs. Utah
You can still get the Jazz at +500 to win the series and the Lakers sit at -700 to win the series after the Jazz end up taking game 1. Remember, during the first round of the playoffs, it was tough to see some road teams doing well in game 4 situations after being up 2-1, but we are in a spot right now where it is quite apparent that the teams remaining can indeed win on the road, with the Pistons winning outright at the Magic yesterday with no Chauncey (despite having a 15 point lead dissipate), or the Lakers showing they can clearly win on the road which could become apparent today as the Hornets have shown they can win on the road at Dallas as well. Thus, do not simply assume that home teams cover at home after winning the necessary game 3 after being down 0-2, as many teams have taken 3-1 leads back home or are taking 3-1 leads back home, remember the Hornets did it against the Mavs, the Pistons are doing it now, the Spurs did it against the Suns and thus I say all this to say that this game can go either way. Keep in mind that public heavily favors the Lakers in this matchup today as over 60% are indeed riding the Lake Show, of course this has affected the line as it opened up at -3.5 in favor of the Jazz and has come down to -1.5 and -2, although there are spots of -1 out there as well. I mentioned in game 1, that an under would not surprise me if the Jazz ended up playing some defense and such was the case in game 3 in Utah, the line has come down despite roughly 60% favoring the over as well as the public is leaning Lakers and Over which is always something to be wary of. Frankly, I can see this game going either way, after all, the Jazz are still dominant at home, the Jazz were fortunate to win game 3 as the Lakers charged late, the Lakers realize that taking a 2-0 lead is useless if you give up the next 2 and they will show up with great intensity today, but I don't like the fact that the public is so in favor of the Lakers, I lean on the over if anything, but likely will stay away.
Horntes vs. Spurs
I have consistently said how much I like the Hornets as a team and the only team that I mentioned that will be able to beat them is indeed the Lakers. And, the Lakers not only come back to win the division but also secure home court advantage throughout the playoffs including the Finals if they make it thus far as the West also won the All-Star game this year, which of course is a detriment to the Celtics because they cannot win playoff games on the road, Atlanta or Cleveland, it doesn't matter, the Celtics struggle in road playoff atmosphere because Rondo wants to get his 12 shots a game and is not playing a point guard but rather 'wants his' and conseuqently it is screwing with the chemistry of this team. Rajan, understand that you are a point guard, you have Paul Piece, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett on the floor, there is no reason why your behind needs to make more shots than all of these players, as suck it up and start dishing out the ball. The last time these 2 particular teams played, the total went to 209 in a game the Spurs finally decided to show up and put some points on the board. What's interesting is the last 2 games in San Antonio have been Spurs covers and consequently overs as well. I like the Hornets here a bit today considering they won game 4 in Dallas, even in the Spurs win in game 3, it was a lot closer than what the final score indicates, I would not be surprised to see an outright Hornets win and consequently an over cashing a well here today.
Re: SUNDAY SERVICE PLAYS
30 Dime –
Take the small number with the Lakers today over the Jazz.
I know Utah has been one of the better home teams in the entire league this year, but they’re not playing the Bobcats or the Sonics folks.
This is the Los Angeles Lakers we’re talking about. A team that in my opinion has as much balance and cohesion as any team in the league.
Consider their loss in Game 3. The Jazz played their best game of the series while the Lakers played their worst.
The outcome was still in doubt with just seconds remaining.
That tells me everything I needed to know about today’s game.
The Lakers turned the ball over 18 times, Pau Gasol only had 12 points and six rebounds, and flat out made too many mistakes to win that game.
You can look up all the trends for the home teams in the playoffs so far and it will tell you that that’s who your money should be on today.
But I’ll give you some numbers that back the Lakers here; Los Angeles is 8-0-1 in its last nine games overall, 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Jazz.
The numbers aren’t what I’m relying on here, but they don’t hurt either.
Take the Lakers as they bounce back today over the Jazz.
5 Dime –
MARLINS (With Olsen as listed pitcher)
Take the Marlins for the road win this afternoon over the Nationals.
Florida is looking for its second straight series sweep, and they’re sending perhaps their best pitcher to the mound today.
Scott Olsen is enjoying a fantastic bounce back season. The left-hander is 4-1 with a 2.22 ERA and has already beaten the Nationals twice this season.
Washington has allowed 31 runs in dropping four of its last five games overall. If that’s not bad enough, they’ve been outscored 58-29 by Florida this year.
Take the Marlins as they grab the road win.
DIAMONDBACKS (With Johnson as listed pitcher)
Take the Diamondbacks for the road win this afternoon over the Cubs.
I know Randy Johnson is old and he’s not close to being the dominant pitcher he once was, but I just can’t ignore the success he’s had against the Cubs in his career.
The Big Unit is 12-0 with a 1.98 ERA in 13 career starts against the Cubbies. He also has a 0.78 ERA over his last five starts against them and is 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in five starts at Wrigley.
It’s hard to argue against numbers like those.
The Diamondbacks are one of the better teams in the National League, so that helps our cause here as well.
Take Arizona at a nice plus return for the road win.
Re: SUNDAY SERVICE PLAYS
2 Star Selection
L.A. Lakers (+1 ½) over UTAH
11-May-08 12:30 PM Pacific Time
The Jazz were in a tremendously positive situation in game 3 after losing the first 2 games in L.A. by double-digit margins and they still only won by 5 points despite the Lakers making just 5 of 23 3- point attempts and turning the ball over 18 times, which are both uncharacteristic. By contrast, the Jazz made 38% of their 3-point attempts and only committed 12 turnovers. The Lakers aren’t as likely to be as sloppy with the ball in this game (they average 13 turnovers per game on the road) and they are very likely to make more than 22% of their 3-point attempts (they made 38% for the season). Los Angeles matches up well against teams that play at a higher than normal pace, as the Lakers are now 33-9-1 ATS this season against teams that average 93 possessions per 48 minutes, including a 5-1-1 ATS mark against the Jazz. The Jazz have been a good home team this season, but my ratings make this game a pick and the math projects Utah by just 2 points if I only used their home games, so the line is fair at the very worst. The Lakers apply to a 69-28-1 ATS situation today and I’ll consider the Lakers a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 3-Stars at +3 or more.
2-Stars at +1 or more, 3-Stars at +3 or more.
2 Star Selection
New Orleans (+5 ½) over SAN ANTONIO
11-May-08 05:05 PM Pacific Time
New Orleans lost as expected in game 3 (the situation strongly favored San Antonio), but the Hornets have a strong habit of bouncing back from sub-par games, as they are now 20-4 ATS following the last 24 games in which they did not cover the spread, including 12-0 ATS recently. New Orleans continues to be an underrated team and my ratings favor the Spurs by just 3 points and the Hornets also I’ll take New Orleans in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 3-Stars at +6 points.
2-Stars at +5 ormore, 3-Stars at +6 or more.
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