SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Bob Akmens

MLB 4*  Indians /Jays  Under 8.5

NHL 3*  DETROIT -225

AFL 3*  DALLAS / GRAND RAPIDS UNDER 101

NBA 3*  CLEVELAND -2

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Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
 
TOP RATED HOME RUN BASEBALL WINNER
Chicago Cubs w/Dempster -130

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Teddy Covers

AFL Dallas Desperados -11.0 4 units

NBA Celtics/Cavaliers Over 176 4 units

MLB San Diego Padres -120 3 units

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Alex Smart

MLB Chicago Cubs -125 3 units

MLB Cleveland Indians -125 4 units

AFL Colorado Crush/Utah Blaze Under 119 3 units

AFL New York Dragons/Los Angeles Avengers Under 111.5 3 units

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LENNY STEVENS

20* CAVS

10* MAGIC

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DAVE COKIN

3* MARLINS
HAT DBACKS
TOTAL PHILLIES UNDER

3* CAVS
WINDOW PISTONS

JIM FEIST

5* GIANTS
INNER CIRCLE INDIANS
PLATINUM ANGELS

5* CAVS
TOTAL UNDER CAVS
GOY PISTONS


SCOTT SPRIETZER

5* CUBS
TKO BRAVES
TKO DODGERS
KO INDIANS

5* MAGIC
TKO CAVS
TOTAL OVER MAGIC

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Nite Owl Sports

Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Pick: TOTAL: Over 176

In looking at this game, its hard to support either side, given how poorly Cleve (including King James) has played in games 1 and 2 of this series, but also with the memory of Bostons three consecutive playoff road failures in Atlanta still fresh in our minds, as well as the fact that the two games played between these two TY in Cleve were both won by the Cavs. We will have a side/total teaser recommendation at the end of this write up, but no pick on either side. Rather, we look to the total, and we see plenty of line value on the Over at this low number of 176, as the line makers know that virtually all NBA fans are well aware of the two brick fests at Boston in games 1 and 2 of this series (even those who did not actually suffer through watching them), which resulted in total points of just 148 and 162 points, respectively. Nite Owl Sports took full advantage, winning all four of our under picks on those two games (one on the first half under and one on the full game under in each game), for a total of 7 units won on the unders in both games combined.

Those four unders wins were part of an INCREDIBLE 23-7 RUN at Nite Owl Sports for +34 UNITS over the last 7 days, including 15-6 /+19 UNITS in NBA and 10-1/+21 UNITS on our last 11 Plays of the Day.

But in this game 3 we are not only jumping ship off of the series under train, but are going the other way. The reason? Mostly the line value that we are getting with the totals line having been chopped down to 176 by the line makers, who know that most of the betting public presently perceives the Cavs as a bunch of bricklayers and the Celtic defense as virtually impenetrable. But let's also consider what happened in the two games played between these two TY in Cleve, where LeBron is more "comfortable than on the road and tends to play much better. In those two, both won by Cavs (one by a point, the other in OT), James scored 33 and 38 points, and the total # of points scored were 227 and 213 (although to be fair, we note that the one for 213 points included 29 scored in OT). We also note that in their games since ASB (All Star break) visiting > 500 teams, Boston averaged 200 total points in those road games, and had varying totals results, including 242 total points at Denver and 219 at New Orleans, as well as a shockingly low 172 at Phoenix and a low 184 at both SA and Dallas. But what is significant is that four of these five totals results were easily over the totals line for this game. Similarly, Cavs played only three good teams at home since the trade in late february, with an average of 182.5 points scored in those three -- 199 total points scored vs NO, 187 vs Orlando, and just 162 in a brick fest vs Detroit, with two of the three going under, but also two of the three totals results being over 176 points.

What happened in LYs Cavs-Pistons NBA East series final reminds us (at least totals wise) of what seems to be unfolding in this series -- Cavs dropped games 1 and 2 by identical scores of 79-76, for 155 total points scored in each, and as a result, the totals line was chopped down low enough by the line maker for the three series games in Cleveland that two of those three actually went over, despite having only 178 and 180 points scored in the two overs -- both over wins were due to line value on the over, and we could easily see the same thing happening in this series.

One final item of discussion, about what to do when trends conflict with line value, with this game as a case in point. On one hand, most of the tendencies of both Cavs and Celtics in the situation for this game 3 point to the under-- such as the teams combined totals record vs > .500 teams being 31-49 to the under, the teams combined home/road totals record (Boston road, Cleve home) being 39-48 to the under, the teams combined totals record being just 46- 63 to the under after a Boston win and Cleve loss, and the two teams having a combined 38-57 to the under when playing on one day of rest, as they are here, with those four key totals factors adding up to a 58.5% probability for the under in this game. But one also has to consider that in many of the games making up these records, Boston was at home and/or Cavs were on the road, which is not the case for this game, and also that many of these games were played with a totals line significantly higher than the 176 line for this game. For example, although as noted above, the two teams have a combined record of 38-57 to the under when playing on one day of rest, the average total number of points scored in those 95 games was 188.5, which is 12 points above this games totals line, so what at first looks like an under tendency is actually more of a plus for the over, given this games low totals line -- again, line value.

Earlier we mentioned that we had a teaser recommendation, which is to tease Boston (from +1 up to +6) with the over, also teasing the totals line down to an even lower 171, as we expect this to be a hard fought, close game which could be won by either team, but not likely by more than a couple of points.

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GamblersWorld

TIP OF THE DAY

Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers

Current Line: -1.5 Over/Under: 175 Reason: The Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers will both be gunning for a playoff victory on Saturday night when they meet at Quicken Loans Arena. Oddsmakers currently have the Cavaliers listed as 1½-point favorites versus the Celtics, while the game's total is sitting at 175. The Celtics limited Cleveland to just 36 points in the first half Thursday, as they defeated the Cavaliers 89-73 to take a 2-0 lead in their second-round series. The Celtics easily covered the 8.5-point spread at TD Banknorth Garden, while the combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 177.5. Paul Pierce led the Celtics with 19 points, while Kevin Garnett had 13 points and 12 rebounds for a double-double in the win. LeBron James had 21 points, five rebounds, and six assists for the Cavaliers in the loss. Team records: Boston: 66-16 SU, 52-28-2 ATS Cleveland: 45-37 SU, 37-45 ATS Boston most recently: When playing on Saturday are 5-5 Before playing Cleveland are 7-3 After playing Cleveland are 7-3 After a win are 7-3 Cleveland most recently: When playing on Saturday are 4-6 Before playing Boston are 6-4 After playing Boston are 6-4 After a loss are 6-4 A few trends to consider: Boston is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Cleveland Boston is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games on the road Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Boston The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 14 games

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Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Gina

Boston Celtics (72-19) at Cleveland Cavaliers (49-41)

Boston without doubt is the better team, but hasn’t been successful against the Cavaliers in Cleveland. Expect King James and his crew to make Game 3 a hard fought fight tonight on their home court. Boston has dropped six straight at Cleveland, going 2-4 ATS.

Cleveland Cavaliers


Detroit Pistons +5½
Cleveland Cavaliers -1½


MLB

Oakland Athletics (22-15) at Texas Rangers (17-20)

The Texas Rangers have won four straight and will try for their fourth straight shutout when they host the Oakland Athletics. Texas has won five of the last six meetings at home versus Oakland and will send Kevin Millwood to the hill. The right-hander has struggle in his last three starts, but went 2-0 with a 5.55 ERA in four starts at Rangers Ballpark this season. Texas has won seven of Millwood's last 8 starts at home, but have dropped four of his last five versus Oakland. He is 3-3 with a 4.34 ERA in 10 career starts against Oakland. The A's counter with Dana Eveland. The southpaw is 3-2 with a 3.05 ERA. Oakland has won five of Eveland’s last 7 starts. He has never faced Texas.
Go with the Rangers to continue their


Texas Rangers

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Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Johnny Guild

Boston Celtics (72-19) at Cleveland Cavaliers (49-41)

Tonight's game is another crucial Game 3 battle with the home team down 0-2. Cleveland has beaten Boston in the last five clashes at Quicken Loans Arena. Keep in mind! The Celtics were defeated in all three road game against the Hawks in the Quarterfinals. Look for LeBron James to step up tonight in front of his home crowd. Take the Cavaliers to seize an imperative home victory against the powerful Celtics.

Cleveland Cavaliers -1.5

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Handicappers World

Pirates -115

Mariners +110

Magic -5

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Root

Chairman - Pittsburgh

Millionaire - Detroit Pistons

Momey Maker - Oakland

Insiders - Florida

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DOC'S AFL

4 Unit Play.Take Over 101 ½ in Columbus @ Kansas City 
Both of these teams will not be making the playoffs, but this posted total is way too low considering how weak the Brigade defense has been this season. Kansas City is currently 15th in the league allowing over sixty points per game. The Destroyers have a decent QB in Matt Nagy and he should be able to reach sixty points per game and thus the over is the proper side to consider. He already has 43 touchdowns on the season and after playing Dallas last week, they are ready to light-up the scoreboard on Sunday.

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Fairway Jay

Marlins/Nationals Over 9.5 3 units

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LT Profits

MLB Minnesota Twins +150 2 units

MLB Orioles -105 2 units

MLB Astros/Dodgers Over 8.5 2 units

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Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections

ANOTHER HUGE SLAM DUNK WINNER
Cleveland -1

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KEVIN O'NEIL

A'S UNDER
MARINERS UNDER
PHILLIES UNDER

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Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Michael Cannon

20 Dime

PISTONS

Take the points with the Pistons tonight in Game 4 of their series with the Magic.

I know, Chauncey Billups is questionable with a hamstring injury, but I love Detroit’s depth and resolve and I expect them to stay within this number whether Billups plays or not.

All season long the Pistons have been giving extra minutes to their bench just so the starters would be fresh down the stretch and through the playoffs. You’re about to see the benefit of such a strategy tonight.

If Billups can’t go, and even if he does I don’t expect him to play more than half the game, rookie Rodney Stuckey will man the point.

Stuckey is 6-foot-5, so he immediately gives the Pistons a size advantage at the point over Orlando’s Jameer Nelson.

I also expect the rest of Detroit’s regulars to pick up the slack for Billups, and since the Pistons play the best team system of anyone in the league that shouldn’t be too difficult a task.

Take the points with the Pistons as they stay within the number tonight.


10 Dime

BRAVES (With James as listed pitcher)

Take the Braves for the road win tonight over the Pirates.

Chuck James will start for Atlanta and he was masterful in two starts against Pittsburgh last season. The left-hander pitched 13 innings without allowing a run in those two starts, and with the Pirates offense struggling a bit right now I expect another gem from him.

The Bucs will start Tom Gorzelanny and he’s had an inconsistent 2008 season to say the least. The left-hander was the Pirates best pitcher last season, but has struggled to post a 2-3 record with a 6.91 ERA. His command has been shaky at best, as evidenced by his 27 walks in 27 1-3 innings.

The Pirates have won four straight, but that streak will end tonight as James shuts them down.

Take Atlanta for the road win.

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