THURSDAY SERVICE PLAYS

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MONEY LOCK OF THE DAY

JUNIOR'S PICK

BRAVES -150


DIGGER'S PICK

RED SOX -120

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MR A'S

NBA Playoffs

Cleveland Cavaliers + 8½

New Orleans Hornets + 6½

MLB

Milwaukee Brewers (16-17) at Florida Marlins (19-14)

The Marlins have won three straight and four of their last five. They have beaten the Brewers in nine of the last 11 games at home, including Wednesday's, 6-2 victory. Florida will send Mark Hendrickson to the hill. The left-hander is 5-1 with a 3.71 ERA this season and is 0-1 with a 4.85 ERA in three appearances, including two startst against the Brewers. The Marlins are 5-1 in Hendricksons last 6 starts. Milwaukee counters with Carlos Villanueva. The right-hander is 1-3 with a 5.56 ERA. Villanueva allowed two runs in six innings in his only start against the Marlins on April 26, a 4-3 win. The Brewers are 1-4 in Villanuevas last 5 starts.

Take the Marlins for a three-game sweep of the Brewers. Milwaukee has dropped four of the last five meetings against Florida.


Florida Marlins - 110

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Oscarxena Sports

Detroit +1.11 (3 Unit Play)
I had a losing selection earlier this week when Detroit failed to beat Boston on Monday but I will ride the Tigers here again today after their big ninth inning rally last night. Justin Verlander has pitched pretty well in his last two starts but the Tigers have only scored a total of three runs in those two outings so he lost both of them. For the year his stats are not that impressive but he has went 1-1 in his career against the Red Sox with a 4.61 ERA. For the Red Sox they will have Josh Beckett on the mound and he has never pitched at Comerica Park and in his only career appearance against the Tigers he was beaten pretty well allowing five runs in six innings pitched. The Tigers bats awoke last night for 18 hits and if they can get their bats hot they should score a lot of runs. The home plate umpire for tonight's game is James Hoye and so far this year he is 6-3 for the home team and interestingly enough Hoye has been the home plate umpire for only 4 Red Sox games and Boston is 0-4 in those outings. I will take the Tigers here again tonight.

Cleveland/Boston Under 177 Even (3 Unit Play)
The knee jerk reaction here is to say these teams can't possibly play worse tonight and they will have to score points so take the Over. My reaction is to come right back this evening and play this game Under the total. The first game in this series went Under the total by 33 points so even an improved performance by the offenses in this game would have to be dramatic in order for it to reach this number. The free throws for Game 1 were pretty close to the regular season and so were the shots attempted so with only one game for the coaches to perform adjustments the tempo and pace of this game should be very similar. If you are a trend player this game has Under written all over it to as Cleveland is 11-1 to the Under in Eastern Conference Semi-Final games and Boston is 20-6-1 to the Under after holding a team to 75 points or less. Give me the Under here again tonight.

New Orleans/San Antonio Under 183 -1.14 (3 Unit Play)
I should have called this card bang my head against the wall as I have the Tigers which I lost on earlier this week and I am now adding this Under as well. My writeup for this game is fairly similar as it was on Monday when I had the Under. These teams combined to shoot 85 three point attempts in the two games played at New Orleans and also 79 free throw attempts which enabled both games to slightly go Over the posted total. I will reiterate that these teams did not even get close to achieving the above numbers in the regular season and I look for the Spurs to be much more deliberate on offense tonight getting the ball into the hands of Duncan and letting him work down low. The Spurs have also had a couple of days to work on something to try and contain Chris Paul as he is just lighting them up on the offensive end of the court for the Hornets. The Hornets are still learning somewhat about playing on the road in the playoffs and I look for the Spurs to try and take them out of this game early tonight. All in all it adds up to an Under play for me this evening.

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WINNING SYSTEMS

SF/PIT Under 7.5
BOS/DET Under 8.5
STL/COL Over 10.5
MIL/FLA Over 9.5
WAS/HOU Over 9.5
CLE/NYY Over 9.5

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PAUL LEINER

10* Over 7.5 SF/Pitt
10* Diamondbacks -160
5* Yankees -140

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Tom Freese

SEATTLE MARINERS

Seattle starter Felix Hernandez has allowed 4 runs in his last 22.1 innings of work vs. Texas. The Mariners are 18-7 their last 25 home games vs. lefty starters and they are 11-4 home their last games vs. the Rangers. Texas is 10-23 their last 33 games as road dogs and they are 6-21 their last 27 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Rangers are 3-8 vs. a team that allowed 2 or less runs in their last game.

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Michael Cannon

2* BALTIMORE ORIOLES -110

Daniel Cabrera will start for Baltimore and he’s having a good season so far. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 4.06 ERA in seven starts. He’s pitched more consistently out of the gates this year than in seasons past, which is one reason the Orioles are playing better than was expected of them. Cabrera also sports a 3-0 record in six career starts against Kansas City with a 2.57 ERA. The Royals will counter with Luke Hochevar, who is making his fourth appearance of the season. Kansas City is still too inconsistent for my liking, so let’s back the Orioles as they grab the road win.

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Drew Gordon

3* FLORIDA MARLINS -105

Break out the brooms, as the Fish make it 3 for 3 tonight against the Brewers, who've not only struggled mightily on the road of late, losing 6 of their last 7 away, but also in South Florida, losing 7 of their last 9 meetings there! More of the same tonight, as we already saw southpaw Scott Olsen shut this Brewers batting order down, and tonight, its lefty Mark Hendrickson's turn! We saw these two starters face off April 26th in Milwaukee, as the Brewers got the 4-3 win, but it was hardly Hendrickson's fault, allowing 2 earned on 5 hits over 6 solid innings! While Carlos Villanueva had almost identical numbers in that game, there's reason for concern in this rematch... Namely, the Brewers offense is sputtering, and they've had a hell of time with lefties on the road this season, batting just .194 against them! Also, speaking of Villanueva, have you noticed the difference between his numbers at home versus on the road? He's gotten bombed in his two road starts this season, allowing 11 runs in 9 2/3 innings, posting a ridiculous 10.24 ERA away... What makes you think it'll be any different against the Marlins tonight? Fish have won 4 of their last 5 AND have been much better against righties, batting .276 against them on the year. Bottom line, Marlins get the sweep, beating down the Brewers with another southpaw this Thursday. Hendrickson has been rock-solid, while Villanueva has been anything but on the road this season. Fish roll! Take Florida behind Hendrickson over Milwaukee and Villanueva in this MLB match up.

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Bobby Maxwell

3* MILWAUKEE BREWERS -105

The Brewers have struggled in Florida, going just 2-9 in their last 11 meetings in South Beach. But we're going to play them tonight as they take on the Marlins and lefty Mark Hendrickson (5-1, 3.71 ERA). Milwaukee's Carlos Villanueva (1-3, 5.56) is on the hill who has had four strong starts this season and two terrible ones. He's coming off his worst outing of the season on Friday when he gave up six runs on nine hits in five innings of a 7-4 loss in Houston. Villanueva's best outing of the season came back on April 26 when he handled this Marlins' lineup with ease. He gave up two runs on six hits in six innings of a 4-3 Milwaukee victory. Hendrickson's lone loss this season came against these Brewers against Villanueva when he allowed three runs on five hits in six innings of a 4-3 loss. He is 0-2 in his career against Milwaukee as back in 2--6 they got to him for five runs on seven hits in four innings of a 9-0 win when Hendrickson was a member of the Dodgers. The Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 games against left-handed starters and will improve on that number today as they get to the Marlins tall lefty. Go with Milwaukee tonight.

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Karl Garrett

4* PITTSBURGH PIRATES -120

I know Matt Cain is a promising young hurler, but let's face facts, Pittsburgh starter Paul Maholm just doesn't lose at home! The southpaw is 2-0 in his 3 starts in the Steel City, and his ERA is a measly 0.89. No issue today in laying the small home wood with Pittsburgh as they look for the 3-game series sweep over the slumping Giants. San Francisco has lost their last 3, and 5 of their last 7. They are also 6-12 on the road this year, and the G-Man has a feeling that after today you can drop their road ledger for the season to 6-13. Maholm pitched a complete game win over San Fran last season, allowing just 1 earned run to cross the plate. It is getaway day, and the Giants can't getaway too soon in this one. I say to go with Maholm at home to notch another "W", as the Bucs complete the series sweep.

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Tony Karpinski

SEATTLE MARINERS -158

The Seattle Mariners are a solid 16-9 at home vs the Texas Rangers the last three years in this series, and are 3-2 as a home favorite of -150 to -175 this year. The Texas Rangers are only 6-7 vs teams with losing records this year, and are a terrible 9-12 on the road this year. We look for the Seattle Mariners to roll over the Texas Rangers for the home Win tonight as they bounce back after getting shutout last night.

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Lenny Del Genio Afternoon Delight

St. Louis Cardinals

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Ferrall

AL FREE B's

Toronto -125 on ML over Tampa--The Jays move to .500 with the win. They've won 7 of 10. Litsch is 4-1 for Toronto and has won 2 of 3. TAKE THE UNDER 9 RUNS

Orioles -110 on ML over Royals--Cabrera is 3-0 lifetime vs the Royals. His ERA is 3.00 over last 3 starts. TAKE THE OVER 8.5 RUNS

SEATTLE -165 on ML over Texas--both of these teams are playing lousy baseball, but I'm inclined to take Felix Hernadez over Gabbard. He'll rebound from bad outing against the Yanks in the Bronx. TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 RUNS

NL FREE B's

DIAMONDBACKS -160 on ML over Phillies--Arizona has WEBB going for 8-0. He's been unreal ! No one has been able to touch him. He'll beat Myers. TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 RUNS

MARLINS -110 on ML over Brewers--Hendrickson is 5-1 and simply wins. He's won 2 of 3, while Villanueva is 1-3 with a huge ERA over 5. TAKE THE OVER 9.5 RUNS

Nationals +120 on ML over Astros--Lannan upsets Backe in Houston. The lefty has gone 2-1 in last 3 with a 2.65 ERA, allowing just 5 earned runs. TAKE THE UNDER 9.5 RUNS

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PlusLineSports

Boston -1.5 +143


2-Minute Warning

Boston Celtics


LEE STEVENS

TORONTO w/Litsch -120


DR VEGAS

Houston -125


The Parlay King 

Dallas +200 


Frank Patron

Diamondbacks -135


Donald Tran

Boston Red Sox -110


Jennifer Barry

Blue Jays -130

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John Ryan

New Orleans Hornets at San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets

Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on New Orleans and the OVER for 3* ? Play each for 3* units and also consider a 2* parlay. AiS shows a 77% probability that NO will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. I see no reason why NO can?t win this game too as they have totally and completely dominated SA in every facet of the game. Sure, they are young, and they may work against them. Neverthless, SA has no solution for defending Paul and NO has suffocated the scrappy Ginoboli. I don?t see that changing at all in this game. The total may be far off what will end up being the final score as the AiS projects an 80% probability that NO will score 100 or more points in this game. There is also a 71% probability that 200 or more points will be scored. NO is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they score 99 to 104 points in a game this season. Supporting this graded play OVER is a system that has gone 213-138 ATS for 61% since 1996. Play over with all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points that is off a win against a division rival and is a well rested team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. NO is also 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams attempting <=24 free throws/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take New Orleans

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Larry Ness' 15* Getaway Day Game of the Week (18-8 since Apr 7 with GOW plays!)-Day
Arizona

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Michael Cannon

25 Dime –

CAVALIERS

Take the points with the Cavs in Game 2 tonight against the Celtics.

Look, I’ve got no misgivings about the talent discrepancy between these two teams. Boston clearly has the edge in overall talent and depth. The Cavaliers lack a supporting cast for LeBron James and it’s going to lead to their downfall.

But, with all that being said the Cavaliers had a chance to tie the game late in Game 1 and were never out of the game from the opening tip.

And that was with LeBron shooting 2-of-18 from the field.

It’s scary to think what could have been if LeBron hadn’t had an off day.

One of the points I brought up in my analysis for Game 1 was how guarding LeBron would have a negative effect on Paul Pierces’ offensive game. Well, Pierce proved me right by putting up just four points.

Now, do I expect the Celtics to shoot as badly as they did in Game 1?

No. But I don’t expect LeBron to have as bad a day as he did either, so those two will cancel each other out.

The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS as a playoff dog, 4-1 ATS after a SU loss and 9-4 ATS in conference semifinal games. Boston is 0-4 ATS in conference semifinal games and 0-5 ATS in its last five as a favorite of five to 10 ½ points.

Take the points with the Cavaliers as they stay within the number again.


5 Dime –

RED SOX (With Beckett as listed pitcher)

Take the Red Sox for the road win tonight over the Tigers.

Josh Beckett will get the nod for Boston and I expect him to out-pitch his mound opponent, Justin Verlander.

Beckett is 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA over his last three starts. During that span he has 23 strikeouts and only three walks in 23 innings.

Verlander has had a miserable season so far. The right-hander is 1-5 with a 6.28 ERA in seven starts. He’s had trouble with location, having walked 20 batters in just 43 innings.

The Red Sox should be able to work the count to their favor tonight, and I expect Beckett to have a quality start.

Take the Red Sox as they grab the road win.


BLUE JAYS (With Jackson and Litsch as listed pitchers)

Take the Blue Jays for the home win tonight over the Rays.

Tampa is improving, and they’ve got some good young arms in their rotation, but Edwin Jackson hasn’t been one of them.

The right-hander is 0-2 with a 7.63 ERA over his last three starts.

He’ll have to pitch much better than that if the Rays are going to have a shot here, because Jesse Litsch is in the midst of a pretty good start to the season for the Blue Jays.

Litsch is 4-1 with a 4.32 ERA in six games. The right-hander has faced the Rays one time this year and they dealt him his only loss.

Look for Litsch to get his revenge for that tonight and for the Blue Jays to pound Jackson.

Take Toronto for the home win.

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Brandon Lang

20 Dime - Spurs

10 Dime - Red Sox


FREE - DAYTIME DOG - Phillies - NIGHTIME DOG - Nationals, NBA - CAVS

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JeffMoney

Yanks -140 (pod)
Pirates -120
Marlins -105
Orioles -105

Hornets +7

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Larry Cook

3* on Houston Astros -124

Houston is on a roll right now and we will ride them to another victory over the Washington Nationals Thursday.  The Astros have won 5 straight and 6 of their last 7 overall to get right back into the NL Central race.  Brandon Backe is 8-0 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse since 1997.  Backe is 13-1 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game since 1997.  John Lannan got torched for 6 runs through 3 innings in his last start for the Nationals.  Lannan will get burnt again Thursday against a hot Astros’ lineup.  Bet Houston at home.

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