NBA Trends May 5

NBA Trends May 5

Take two: Round 2 betting tips and trends
By MARC LAWRENCE

It’s on to Round 2 of the NBA playoffs and with it a myriad of new handicapping strategies. And with that, it’s important to remember that each round of postseason play takes on a personality of its own.

To get a handle on this round, it’s important to identify the condition each team is in when arriving. They are often times either off a series upset, a close-call scare, or a romp in the park.

Recognizing these circumstances is critical to your approach. Let’s examine four key stratagems designed to keep the bookmakers on their heels.

All results are against the spread (ATS) over the past 17 years in Round 2 games of the playoffs, unless stated otherwise.

GAME 1 LETDOWNS

Road teams tend to relax a tad too much.

That’s confirmed by the fact they are 27-38-3 ATS. And if they are off a Game 7 win, they rival Rip Van Winkle when it comes to falling asleep on the job, going 0-3 SU and ATS – with every loss by 13 or more points.

If these Game 1 visitors in Round 2 are off a SU underdog win in the opening round, they dip to 9-20-3 ATS. And, if they are on the road off an upset win and their opponent is off a win of four or more points, they bottom out at 3-15-2 ATS.

SIZE MATTERS

Not just between the sheets, but on the court as well.

Put a team in an especially embarrassing role and they tend to rise to the occasion, if you will. Our powerful database corroborates our contention as teams off a loss of 20 or more points are 25-13 in this round.

Put them up against a non-division foe and they improve to 18-6. Better yet, price them as a favorite or dog of four or less points and they zoom to 16-4. Like Visine, these discomforted revengers have a way of getting the red out.

BETTER TEAMS BOUNCE BACK

Simply put, you can’t hold a good team down forever.

On the blind teams with a better record than their opponent are 186-189-9, thus no real edge here. However, bring them in off a SU and ATS loss and they improve to 60-46-2, including 38-22 on the road.

If these better record road teams are off a SU and ATS home loss, they win the game SU on the court more times than they lose (17-13), while posting a neat 21-9 record to the number.

ENOUGH IS ENOUGH

A good thing rarely lasts forever.

Unless, of course, you married for love. In this business though, we’re in it for the money and there are dollars to be had simply by fading teams that have scored 100 or more points in back-to-back games. When these same teams are off wins and covers in both contests they come back to the pack, going 17-41. Put them on the road in this role and they drop to 8-25.

Worse yet, send them on the road off back-to-back SU and ATS wins in which they scored 100 or more points in each, the last victory by 13 or more points, and they break down faster than Alka Seltzer in water, going 2-16.

There you have it. Four solid betting strategies to follow through out the second round of this year’s NBA playoffs. Enjoy.

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NBA LONG SHEET

ORLANDO (56 - 32) at DETROIT (64 - 25)


Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 52-37 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games this season.
DETROIT is 44-29 ATS (+12.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
DETROIT is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in home games this season.
DETROIT is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after allowing 85 points or less this season.
DETROIT is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
DETROIT is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DETROIT is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
ORLANDO is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) in all games this season.
ORLANDO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) as an underdog this season.
ORLANDO is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games this season.
ORLANDO is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
ORLANDO is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 9-5 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 13-3 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


SAN ANTONIO (60 - 28) at NEW ORLEANS (61 - 27)

Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) in road games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 54-33 ATS (+17.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in home games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after allowing 85 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 28-19 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 204-163 ATS (+24.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 7-6 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 9-4 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons 

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SHORT SHEET

Eastern Conference
Second Round
Game Two
Pistons Lead, 1-0
Orlando at Detroit, 7:35 ET

Orlando:
25-9 ATS playing with revenge
14-1 ATS off road loss

Detroit:
14-5 Under off 3+ ATS wins
5-1-1 Under in playoffs


Western Conference
Second Round
Game Two
Hornets Lead, 1-0
San Antonio at New Orleans, 9:35 ET

San Antonio:
1-5 ATS off division loss
5-1 Under off loss by 15+ points

New Orleans:
23-6 ATS off 5+ games w/ 14 or less turnovers
23-9 ATS after winning 4 of last 5

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Trend Sheet

7:00 PM ORLANDO vs. DETROIT
Orlando is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Orlando is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games


9:30 PM SAN ANTONIO vs. NEW ORLEANS
San Antonio is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

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Tips and Trends

Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons


Magic: Insiders believe Orlando will not be able to hang with the Pistons in this series if they don't make 3-point baskets - or take more of them. The Magic had averaged nearly 30 3-point attempts per game in the first round against Toronto but took just 15 in Game 1 vs. Detroit - making only 2. Taking more 3-pointers would also help open up the inside for Dwight Howard, who was held to 12 points and 8 rebounds. They also hurt their cause by making just 10-of-20 free throws. "The first thing I look at is myself," Orlando head coach Stan Van Gundy said. "I can't make free throws, but other than that we have to find something better."

Road team is 15-6-3 ATS in the last 24 meetings.
The UNDER is 9-1 in Orlando's last 10 road games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 90

Pistons (-5.5, O/U 185): Detroit used its big advantage in the backcourt en route to a Game 1 victory - literally. Chauncey Billups totaled a game-high 19 points over a smaller Jameer Nelson while Rip Hamilton added 17, as the duo outscored Orlando's backcourt by 25. "Chauncey drove the ball and he's a very strong guy so if he gets an angle and drops that shoulder, good luck getting in front of him," Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said. "Rip around screens is the best in the league. Since Reggie Miller retired, he's the best catch-and-shoot player coming off screens in the NBA."

Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings at Detroit.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 95


San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets


Spurs: San Antonio's Tim Duncan is coming off one of the worst games of his career thanks to stellar defense by New Orleans, utilizing an effective double-team strategy. Duncan missed 8 of his 9 shots and half of his 6 free throws, finishing with 5 points and 3 rebounds in Game 1. Duncan had averaged 25 points and 14 rebounds in the first round vs. Phoenix, and the Hornets expect him to bounce back in Game 2. "Tim is too proud to come out and play that way again," New Orleans head coach Byron Scott said. "In our minds right now, this is going to be a long series. They're just too good of a team to play the way they played (Saturday) night for four more games or five more games, so we didn't get their best shot."

The OVER is 6-2-1 in San Antonio's last 9 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 90

Hornets (-2.5, O/U 182): One of the biggest advantages New Orleans has in this series is youth, and head coach Byron Scott had his players practice only briefly on Sunday before watching film. The Hornets have also taken advantage of a big home-court edge to win all 4 of their games there in the playoffs, going 3-1 ATS. "We have to use what we've got - we have the youth, younger legs, things like that," Scott said. "We're a little more athletic than they are. We have to try to use those things to our advantage."

Hornets are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 home games.
The UNDER is 3-0-1 in New Orleans' last 4 games overall.
The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 92

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