Thursday Service Plays

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VEGAS EXPERTS

Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals

The Nationals are gaining a little bit of momentum, having won five of six, including a two-game sweep of the Braves. Tonight, they'll face the Pirates and Zach Duke, who has an atrocious 4- 22 team start record in the role of road underdog. Nats starter Odalis Perez might be 0-3, but he has an ERA of 2.70 at home, so if anyone is due for a win on Thursday, it's him.

Play on: Washington

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LT Profits

Philadelphia Phillies -110

The Philadelphia Phillies fit our Bullpen System here vs. the San Diego Padres, making them an automatic play at this cheap price.

Now granted, Philadelphia starter Adam Eaton has been a major disappointment since putting on a Philadelphia uniform last year. However, the Phillies have managed to win his last three starts despite Eaton having a horrendous 6.14 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over 14.2 innings in those outings. That should give you an idea of just how good the Philadelphia bullpen has been.

The Phillies rank third in the Major Leagues in pen ERA at 2.68, and while Chad Durbin may not be available tonight, Rudy Seanez (0.90 ERA in 10 innings) and J.C. Romero, who has yet to give up an earned run in 12.1 innings, are ready to go. Thus, the Phils could afford to give Eaton the quick hook if necessary, as their long men are very capable of getting this game into the hands of closer Brad Lidge, who has also not allowed an earned run yet this season in 11 innings while posting six saves.

Former Phillie Randy Wolf is taking this start for the Padres, and he was roughed up for five earned runs on seven hits while lasting just four innings vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks in his last start. Furthermore, the San Diego bullpen has been a major disappointment this season after leading the National League in pen ERA last year, currently sitting 26th out of 30 teams at 4.67.

Finally, the Phillies have gone 17-8 in the last 25 head-to-head meetings between these clubs, and we look for that success to continue tonight.

Pick: Phillies -110


Detroit Pistons -5.0

The Detroit Pistons have brought their “A” game vs. the Philadelphia 76ers since the second half of Game 4, and we look for them to wrap things up vs. the pesky Sixers with a handy win tonight.

The Pistons overcame a 10-point halftime deficit here in Philadelphia by outscoring the 76ers 57-38 in the second half of Game 4, and they followed that up with a 17-point home win in Game 5. Detroit has a huge advantage in playoff experience here and they have won many road playoff games in the past, so look for their smothering defense to propel them to the next round here.

The Sixers took Detroit by surprise in Game 1 and again in the first game in Philadelphia, but even with those two victories, they are still only averaging 87.6 points per game in this series. Furthermore, their scoring output has decreased as the Pistons have turned up the Heat, as they scored a series-low 81 points on Tuesday.

Philadelphia may be hard-pressed to reach just 80 points tonight, paving the way for a Pistons matchup with the Orlando Magic in the Conference Semifinals.

Pick: Pistons -5

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Tom Freese

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals

Reason: Pittsburgh starter Zach Duke is in terrible KW form with more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts and he has more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts vs. Washington. Duke is 1-2 with a 6.12 ERA in 3 career starts vs. the Nationals and he is 0-2 at Washington with a 6.75 ERA. Duke has struggled in the month of May going 3-8 in his last 11 May starts. Washington starter Odalis Perez has allowed 2 or less runs in 5 of his 6 starts this year.

PLAY ON WASHINGTON -

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Michael Cannon

40 Dime GOY

PISTONS

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EZWINNERS MLB

1 STAR: (952) FLORIDA (+$110) over LA Dodgers
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $110)

1 STAR: (959) TAMPA BAY (+$108) over Baltimore
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $108)

1 STAR: (953) MILWAUKEE (+$126) over Chicago
(Listing Gallardo only)
(Risking $100 to win $126)

1 STAR: (962) TEXAS (+$120) over Kansas City
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $120)

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VicMonte

100* Inside Info - Seattle Mariners +$140

The main reason we are on the Mariners on Thursday night is because of the Indians starting pitcher Paul Byrd. Byrd ranks #74 out of 89 starting pitchers in the American League. The Indians are a money sucking 1-4 -$291 in Paul Byrd's starts this season. More bad news on Byrd is that his team has lost there last 4 games against the Mariners when he is on the mound. In his last 3 losses against Seattle, Byrd has allowed 17 ER's in 14 IP. If the Mariners get to Byrd early don't expect much from the Indians bullpen. The Cleveland bullpen has a beefy ERA of 4.56 - A W/L Record of 2-5 and more Blown Saves (5) then Saves (4)....While the Indians are just 2-6 in there last 8 home games the Mariners come into play a profitable 7-4 in their last 11 games as a road underdog. That's the best part were getting this great situation at +$130. Want More? The Mariners are 5-2 in Batistas last 7 starts vs. American League Central.

100* Inside Info Seattle Mariners +$130

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Winners Edge

NBA

Philly 76's ML , (+180) 1 unit

MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates +110 , 1 unit

Tampa Bay Rays Even , 2 units

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JB's Computer Plays

Tampa Bay Rays - 105

Kansas City Royals - 135

Chicago Cubs - 145

Boston Red Sox - 125

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WUNDERDOG

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Florida
Pick: Florida +125

This game looks too easy for Los Angeles. They are on fire while Florida has struggled and puts a rookie who's had no success on the mound. It looks too easy and that's a sign for us. Can the Dodgers win six straight and record their second straight sweep? Yes, but we think Florida staves it off. LA also puts a rookie on the mound in Hiroki Kuroda. He's been decent but stands at 1-2 and is coming off his worst start allowing five runs and nine hits in six innings. The Dogers are a losing road team and they are just 3-5 in day games scoring 2.1 runs per game. If Badenhop gets into trouble, Florida's bullpen has been excellent, posting a 3.16 ERA. LA is just a bit too hot and that has to end. This line looks like a trap and we're gonna go the other way and back the home dog.

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LT Profits

MLB Tampa Bay Rays +105 / 2 units

MLB Milwaukee Brewers +130 / 2 units

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Alex Smart

Pittsburgh Penguins -122

The Pittsburgh Penguins enter into this tilt in MSG vs the NY Rangers with a 3-0 series strangle hold on this series. With key component and agitator Sean Avery expected to miss this game with a lacerated spleen, the Rangers situation looks dire. It must be noted that the Rangers are 33-14-10 with Avery in the lineup and just 9-13-3 when he is out. Look for Sid the Kid Crosby and his super star side kick Evgeni Malkin to be the catalysts behind what Im predicting will be the final knock out blow in game 4 for the sweep. Note: Rangers are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home underdog . NHL teams up 3-0 in a QF series, are 35-17 SU for a .673 win % . Play on the Pens

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JEFF MONEY

Oakland


Rocketman Sports 

Det.R.Wings -145


PRIORITY SPORTS

Baltimore -115


LT's Lock

76er's


Gamblers Data

KC Royals -137

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Doug Bartlett

Royals -130 (Greinke) (5 Star)

6-3 LAST NINE 50 STAR PLAYS



Donald Tran

Arizona Diamondbacks -155


Jennifer Barry

LA Dodgers -110


Chad Jordan

Cleveland Indians -165


Bobby Bo Free

1* Cubs -140

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Info Plays

3* on Texas Rangers +118
(List Ponson only)

Sidney Ponson pitched a gem in his first start back from the DL by allowing just 1 earned run through 5.3 innings against his former team in Minnesota.  Look for this success to carry over into Ponson’s second start of the season tonight against the Royals.  Texas is 33-21 (+11.7 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 over the last 2 seasons.  Texas is 38-24 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in home games after 2 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.  Kansas City is 7-25 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 5.2 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.  Texas can put up runs with any team in the league, so look for Ponson to get plenty of run support to earn a win tonight.  Bet Texas at home.

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Ted Sevransky

Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers
PICK: Detroit Pistons 

The Pistons faced two closeout situations on the road in the playoffs last year. In the first round, they swept the Magic out of the playoffs, winning Game 4 on the road. In the second round, after failing to sweep Chicago after taking a 3-0 series lead, letting the Bulls get back into it with a Game 4 win and a Game 5 upset in Detroit, the Pistons went back to Chi-town and beat up the Bulls in Game 6, again winning their closeout game on the highway.

In ’06, Detroit closed out on the road in their first round series against Milwaukee, notching a ten point win at the Bradley Center. They also won a crucial Game 6 at Cleveland after trailing that series 3-2. In ’05, after losing a home game and one at Indiana, the Pistons finished the series with three straight wins, including a Game 6 closeout at Indy. After trailing the Heat in the second round by a 3-2 margin, they won the last two in the series, including a closeout Game 7 win on the road at Miami. In the Finals, trailing 3-2, they won Game 6 at San Antonio and nearly pulled off the Game 7 road upset in Larry Brown’s last game with the team.

I think you get my point. The veteran Pistons, with essentially the same cast of characters as they’ve had in each of those previous playoff series, have repeatedly and consistently closed out series in Game 6 on the highway. When Detroit is clicking, their defense is championship caliber. They don't give up open looks on the perimeter. They don't give up anything in the paint, and don't allow opposing point guards to drive and dish to open shooters. They dominate the defensive glass and don't allow second chance opportunities. They don't give up easy buckets in transition.

Offensively, when the Pistons are clicking, their ball movement is phenomenal, as is their balance, with everybody chipping in. Flip Saunders has painstakingly developed a tremendous bench throughout the season, and you don't see any significant drop-off on either end of the court with the reserves in action. Put it all together and we can expect Detroit to close out this series in pointspread covering fashion tonight.

Take the Pistons.

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Ben Burns

Detroit Red Wings @ Colorado Avalanche
PICK: Under

REASON FOR PICK: I'm coming off a solid 4-2 day overall but it could have easily been better (5-1) if not for a tough beat on the ice. My play was on the Flyers and Canadiens to finish 'under' the total. The teams were scoreless after one period and the score was just 1-0 heading into the third. A wild third period saw the teams each score two goals, bringing the score to 3-2. It still seemed like the game might sneak below the total, before the Flyers added an empty net goal with less than two seconds remaining.

That's ancient history though and this is an entirely different series. The Wings have won the first three games and each has finished above the number. However, it's rare to see four straight games in an NHL playoff series finish above the total and I don't expect it to happen here. Note that the Avs have seen the 'under' go 11-6-1 the past three seasons (5-2-1 this year) after having lost three or more consecutive games. During the same stretch, the Wings have seen the 'under' go 41-29-11 after having won three or more consecutive games.

The Avs, who have seen the 'under' go 23-11-7 against teams with a winning record this season, saw their "elimination game" vs. Minnesota in the first round produce just three goals, with a final score of 2-1. The Wings, who have seen the 'under' go 14-9-7 the last 30 times they were coming off three or more consecutive games which finished above the number, also saw their opening round elimination game (vs Nashville) produce three goals, finishing with a score of 3-0. Regardless of whether or not this proves to be the final game of the series, I expect it to prove to be the one with the lowest final combined score.

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Doc's Sports

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Under

REASON FOR PICK: A pair of south paws are set to take the mound as this four games series opens up in the Nation’s Capital. They combine for a 0-5 record and thus the total is a run high then what it should be. The problem for both teams most of the season has been scoring runs and thus this sets up for a perfect situation to play the under

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MONEYLOCKOFTHEDAY

Junior - Boston/Toronto Under 9.5

Digger - Red Wings Under 5.5


2-Minute Warning

Detroit Pistons


King Creole

PHI / DET Under 178.5


ARMVIN SPORTS

BALTIMORE ORIOLES   -121


Savannah Sports

2 Units on Texas Under 10

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SportsKingz

MLB

CLEVELAND -150       
PHILLY -115         
BOSTON -120         

NBA

SIXERS +6     

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WUNDERDOG

Game: Detroit at Colorado
Pick: Detroit -155

Detroit goes for the sweep of the Avs tonight. You know how we feel about this series. We've backed the Red Wings in a big way each game. The facts speak for themselves as Detroit has won 13 of the last 15 meetings and are 7-0 this season, having won by a comined score of 24-9. Detroit won the Presidents Trophy for a reason - they are very good and very disciplined and make it extremely hard for teams to find the net. This team has the desire to be great and those are the teams that sweep their opponents. The Avs are still beat up (Stastny, Smyth, Svatos and Clark) which makes a very tough task that much harder. While Colorado is alllowing 2.8 goals per game in the playoffs and 3.2 over their last five games, Detroit is giving up 2.1 in the playoffs and 1.6 per game over their last five. Colorado is now 0-8 on the season vs. the best of the best (teams outscoring opponents by 0.65+ goals per game). They just don't have what it takes this year. Detroit is 12-2 this year on the road off a road win and 23-4 the past two seasons off a road win in which they scored 4+ goals so we'll back them to finish this one off here in Colorado.

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