Wednesday Service Plays

Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Larry Ness

San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

REASON FOR PICK: Chris Young was coming off an 11-5 season in 2006 (3.46 ERA) and opened the 2007 season by going 9-3 with a 1.82 ERA through his first 20 starts. However, in late July he was placed on the DL because of a strained left oblique and when he returned in early August, he was NOT the same pitcher. He made 10 more starts the rest of the way, going 0-5 with a 5.96 ERA, as the Padres lost EIGHT of those 10 starts. He's had only one poor outing in 2008 (in five starts) and that was at Dodgers Stadium on April 12, when he allowed seven hits and six ERs in three innings. However, the Padres have lost each of his last four outings, despite some solid efforts. It's not easy being a starting pitcher for the Padres these days, as since the team won back-to-back shutouts at LA on April 13 (1-0) and home to Colorado on April 15 (6-0), SD has gone 2-11, getting outscore 81-41! The 10-17 Padres are 29th in scoring (3.26 RPG) and last in batting average (.225), while batting only hitting .177 during their current 13-game slide. In comparison, the Phils (No. 1 in runs scored last year in the NL with 892) are averaging 5.67 RPG and batting .275 while winning SEVEN of their last nine (all without last year's MVP, Jimmy Rollins). The ageless Jamie Moyer (he's actually 45) takes the mound for Philadelphia tonight, coming off arguably his best start of the '08 season last Thursday at Milwaukee. In a 3-1 Philadelphia win, he allowed only one run in six innings. The left-handed Moyer has to like the fact that San Diego is just 1-6 vs lefties this year, including a 1-5 mark at night, where they've averaging a pathetic 2.3 RPG. Take the Phillies.

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Dave Malinsky

Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Washington Nationals

Not only has that marketplace changed the favorite’s for this one, it is now swinging so far that we are getting Shawn Hill and the Nationals at a plus price. That gets us involved here against an over-rated Atlanta team with a struggling bullpen that will continue to find life difficult on the road when you can not get outs in the late innings (4-10 away from Turner Field so far).

We got a lot of mileage out of Shawn Hill last year and we believe in his stuff. While the markets did not take full notice of his 3.42 ERA because of the advantages of pitching in RFK Stadium, the ballpark was not all that essential to his bottom line - he throws strikes and keeps the ball down in the zone, which leads to a lot of ground balls. That gets you outs in any park, and note that his road ERA of 3.31 in 2007 was actually better than the 3.55 in RFK. And while a 5.40 over his first two starts this campaign may only elicit yawns, the key numbers are where they need to be - 11 strikeouts vs. only three walks through 10 innings, and 13 ground ball outs vs. six in the air. His rhythm should only get better with each passing start. And there could not have been a better sign for the Washington offense last night than the slumping Ryan Zimmerman/Dan Johnson tandem going 5-8, each hitting a home run, and a combined three runs scored and four driven in.

Jair Jurrjens commands some respect for Atlanta, and he has earned it with a 3-2/3.45. But not nearly enough to be in the road favorite’s role, especially considering just how weak that bullpen behind him is. That is why the 4-10 road record means so much to us - three of those wins were worked by John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, and two of them were shutouts. There has been one road save all season, that a generous one for Peter Moylan, who took over with a three-run lead in the bottom of the 9th. Moylan, of course, is on the DL, along with Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez, leaving Bobby Cox with only muddled options for the late innings. And since he does not want Jurrjens going more than seven at this stage of his career, it means plenty of opportunities for the Nats to eventually get the job done.

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SportsKingz

MLB

BOSTON R/L -1.5 -105       
CLEVELAND -190             
CHI CUBS -130             
L.A. ANGELS -150           

NBA

CLEVELAND -4.5     

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Paul Leiner

50* NBA Over 187 Bos/Atl

10* MLB Yankees -130

5* MLB Reds -110

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Ben Burns   

San Jose vs. Dallas
Today's Pick: SAN JOSE SHARKS

I've watched the Stanley Cup playoffs for enough years to know that anything can (and will) happen. That being said, I'll admit to being quite surprised that the Sharks find themselves down three games to none. They're still an excellent team though and this series could look completely different, if the Sharks had gotten a couple of bounces, rather than the Stars. As goalie Nabokov had to say: "There's no quit in this room. All the games have been pretty close. It's been little bounces here and there. … We have to regroup and forget these games."

The fact that the teams are playing their second game in two nights doesn't figure to bother San Jose. The Sharks were 12-5 (Stars were 8-8) when playing the second of back to back games on the season and they're a highly profitable 32-13 (+16.8) in that situation since the start of the 2006 season. As most are anticipating another Dallas win, we're getting great value on a talented and desperate Sharks team, which hasn't been swept in the playoffs for more than a decade and which has an excellent shot at extending the series. Consider grabbing the attractive price with the vistors. Take the Sharks. 

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Info Plays

3* on Cardinals/Reds U 8
(Listing Harang and Looper)

Two great NL starters go toe-to-toe in Game 3 of this series between the Reds and Cardinals.  St. Louis will turn to starter Braden Looper (3-1, 4.05 ERA), who will be looking to build upon one of the best starts of his career on Friday.  Despite not factoring into the decision, he allowed just two hits over seven scoreless frames before the bullpen imploded late in a 3-2 loss to Houston.  The 33-year-old righthander went 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two starts against Cincinnati last season.  The Reds will counter with ace Aaron Harang (1-3, 2.76), who hopes to continue his run of strong starts. He has allowed two earned runs or less in five of his six outings.  The Under is 7-1 in Harangs last 8 starts vs. National League Central.  Bet the UNDER 8 runs.

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Gamblers world

TIP OF THE DAY

Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics

Prediction: Boston Celtics

Current Line: -13.5 Over/Under: 187.5 Reason: The Atlanta Hawks and the Boston Celtics will both be gunning for a postseason victory on Wednesday when they meet at TD Banknorth Garden. Oddsmakers currently have the Celtics listed as 13½-point favorites versus the Hawks, while the game's total is sitting at 187½. Joe Johnson went for 35 points and six assists as the Hawks shocked the Celtics 97-92 on Monday night to even their Eastern Conference quarterfinals series 2-2. Atlanta cashed as 8.5-point home underdogs as the teams played under the 191.5-point total posted by sportsbooks. Josh Smith had 28 points, seven blocks, and six rebounds for the Hawks, who got 18 points from Mike Bibby in the upset. Ray Allen led Boston with 21 points, while Kevin Garnett had 20 points, nine boards, and six steals for the Celtics. Team records: Atlanta: 37-45 SU, 38-44 ATS Boston: 66-16 SU, 52-28-2 ATS Atlanta most recently: When playing on Wednesday are 3-7 Before playing Boston are 5-5 After playing Boston are 4-6 After a win are 5-5 Boston most recently: When playing on Wednesday are 5-5 Before playing Atlanta are 6-4 After playing Atlanta are 4-6 After a loss are 6-4 A few trends to consider: The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 9 games when playing on the road against Boston The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Boston The total has gone OVER in 11 of Atlanta's last 16 games The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boston's last 9 games when playing at home against Atlanta

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Seen any ROCKDEMAN today?  Thanks.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Ferringo 4/30

2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 (+110) Detroit at New York Yankees
1-Unit Play. Take New York Yankees (-135) over Detroit
Detroit is just 3-8 in its last 11 games at Yankee Stadium and 6-21 dating back over the last eight years. Jeremy Bonderman is still serving up balloon balls and I think the Yankees are going to win this one in dramatic fashion with late offense coming against Detroit's weak bullpen. Andy Pettite has beaten the Tigers five straight times overall and five straight times in the Bronx.

2-Unit Play. Take Los Angeles Angels (-150) over Oakland
1-Unit Play. Take Los Angeles Angels (-1.5, +150) over Oakland
Ervin Santana at home is automatic. He is 26-9 in his career in Anaheim and the Angels are 25-8 with him as a home favorite and 27-10 in his last 37 home starts. Further, he is 7-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his career against the A’s and that Angels have won six of his last seven starts against them. The Angels are No. 1 in the league against left-handed pitching, raking the ball at a .321 clip. They took care of Greg Smith yesterday and now they’ll take a crack at Dana Eveland, who’s given up eight runs in his last three outings (15 innings). The A’s have been a solid road dog this year, but they are still just 4-10 in their last 14 divisional games. This game is for first place. I’m going with the home team and Vlad Guererro, who I think is going to be the difference maker today.

1.5-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (-110) over Washington
1-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (-1.5, +150) over Washington

1.5-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-125) over Chicago White Sox
1-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-1.5, +160) over Chicago White Sox
Nick Masset is making the spot start for the White Sox, who burned their bullpen and their rotation with five games in three days. Massett has gotten hammered in his last two appearances against the Twins, giving up 11 runs in seven innings of relief. Nick Blackburn has been solid at home, surrendering just one run in 14.2 innings this year in two starts in the Metrodome. The Twins’ lineup seems to have a bit of a spark now that Mike Cuddyer is back in the fold, and I think they can muster another win in this series.

3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Tampa Bay at Baltimore
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Cincinnati at St. Louis

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections

NBA PLAYOFF FIRST ROUND PLAY OF THE YEAR
Boston -14


TRIPLE PLAY BASEBALL WINNER
San Francisco w/Sanchez -115

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Mike Jacobs

100* NBA Bos Under 187.5

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Priceless Picks

1 Unit on Seattle Mariners +170
(listing Washburn and Lee)

The Mariners are being way undervalued against an Indians team which is 3 games below .500 at home.  We'll make a play on the M's showing great value here.  The Indians are 4-9 in their last 13 home games, 2-6 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 1-6 in their last 7 games as a home favorite.  The Mariners are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 8-2 in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Mariners are 10-3 in Washburn's last 13 Wednesday starts and 10-3 in Washburn's last 13 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Oddsmakers have made a mistake giving this much value to the M's here and we'll make them pay.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Big  Al

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Hawks and Boston Celtics 'under' the total. We played the 'under' in Game 4, and should have had an easy win, but the two teams combined for a ton of points in the final minute (courtesy of countless fouls), and we ended up with a win, push or loss depending on one's number (the total ranged from 188 to 190). Notwithstanding the outburst of points in the final minute, the 2nd half was much lower scoring than the first half (41 points in the 3rd quarter; 49 points in the 4th, compared to 99 points in the first two quarters), and I expect the overall pace of Wednesday's game to slow down even more. Boston has played 16 of 21 'under' the total as home favorites of -11 points or more this season (including the first two games of this playoff series). Take the 'under'.

At 7:10pm our selection is on the Dodgers over the Florida Marlins. Dodgers righthanded starter Chad Billingsley may be the most talented starter in the National League yet to win a game. Not only has Billingsley yet to get in the win column himself, but his team is currently 0-4 in his four starts so far in '08. Billingsley clearly still has dominant stuff as his 32 strikeouts in less than 21 innings would attest. If Billingsley is an underachiever so far this season then his opposing pitcher, lefthander Scott Olsen, is just the opposite. Olsen's ten wins in 35 starts and 5.81 ERA in 2007 certainly were no indication that he would go 3-0 with a 2.60 ERA in his first five starts of this season. But two things stand out: first is the fact that Olsen has only thirteen strikeouts to go with an equal number of walks in 35 innings, while the second becomes evident when you look at the teams Olsen has faced. Out of his five starts, two have been against the Washington Nationals and one has been against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Dodgers are batting a torrid .296 against southpaws so far in 2008. Take Los Angeles.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Seabass

20 Cubs
20 Oak
20 BALT
20 ATL
20 SD
10 Pitt

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Chris James

2* MLB SF Giants

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Any luck in getting the big 300 play for seabass?  Thanks.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

madness wrote:


Any luck in getting the big 300 play for seabass?  Thanks.

Haven't seen it yet

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Ok.  Thanks.  The pick is on the Celts v. Hawks game.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Bob Akmens

Dallas Stars -160 / 3 units

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