Monday Service Plays

Re: Monday Service Plays

IndianCowboy

Game: Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets
Pick: 3 units Denver Nuggets +4.5 (Play of the Day)

To close out the thought that I had on the research earlier, I've always believed the +4.5 or +5.5 Home dog price is one of the most indicative of Vegas believing a team will win outright and tonight is no different in my opinion. As the research below explains, I believe this is a repeat of the Suns vs. Spurs game 4 that occurred this weekend. Nuggets are 10-3 ATS after a straight up loss of more than 10 points and the home team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 ballgames.

The article that I wrote yesterday about the Heavy favorites winning games 1 and 2, losing game 3 on the road to the underdog, then they typically come back to win game 4. Examples of series that have followed this prototype include (Hornets vs. Mavs, Magic vs. Raptors and Boston vs. Atlanta). However, the 2 series out west have not and that includes the Lakers vs. Denver and Phoenix vs. San Antonio as neither the Suns nor the Nuggets came back home to win game 3, but the Suns did win game 4 to avoid getting swept. Just based on that principle alone, it is tough for me to imagine that the Lakers want to close this baby out on the road here rather than at L.A. Furthermore, I would not be surprised to see the Nuggets, who are still a very proud team, take at least one game here as they got pummeled in game 3 - in an embarrassing way. These are still professionals and I think this team seriously took a blow to their morale. Just out of principle, this should be a play in my opinion. I'm a bit surprised to see this line overall, as 66% of the public do prefer the Lakers after the beat down they delivered in game 3, but I think this is similar to the Suns vs. Spurs in Game 4 the other day and I wouldn't be surprised to see a Nuggets outright win here, like I said, this is simply out of principle I like the Nuggs here, too much value.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

LT Profits

NBA Toronto Raptors +8.0 / 2 units


MLB Cincinnati Reds 125 / 2 units

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Mike Rose


AFL Dallas Desperados +5.5 / 5 units

NBA Los Angeles Lakers/Denver Nuggets Over 227.5 / 5 units

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Re: Monday Service Plays

JB Sports

Denver Nuggets +4.5 / 2 units

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Bob Balfe

NBA Basketball
Magic -7 over Raptors
The Raptors were up by a point going into the 4th quarter in Game four. Orlando blew them out of the water in their own home building. The tempo is all in favor of the Magic and they will want to wrap up the series at home tonight. The line seems a little high, but the Raptors will foul late with their season being on the line if it is close. If Orlando has another huge first quarter the Raptors will never get back into the game. Take Orlando.

Boston/Atlanta Under 190
The Hawks stuck it to Boston last game and really woke up the Celtics who coasted through the first two games due to Atlanta's weak play. The Celtics will be focused tonight and their defense will not allow Atlanta to score 100 points again. Atlanta does have some hope, but once Boston gets ahead this young team might fold. Take the Under.

Lakers/Nuggets Under 227
The Nuggets are facing elimination and will play with all they have tonight. These teams have played four times in the last week and its hard to keep the tempo up. Although both teams do not play defense they still know the strengths to try to contain. Again, a lot of things have to go just right for this game to go over the total. Look for The Lakers to slow it down and try to creep out with the series.


Major League Baseball
Angels -120 over A's


Savannah Sports

2 Units on LA Lakers -5

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Wolkosky Milan

10* TORONTO +7½
10* LA LAKERS -4½
10* TOR/ORL OVER 203

5* LA ANGELS -123
5* COL/SFG OVER 7½

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Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections

HOME RUN BASEBALL TRIPLE PLAY TOTALS WINNER
OVER 7.5 Colorado and San Francisco

HOME RUN BASEBALL TRIPLE PLAY WINNER
Arizona w/Haren -184

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Duke's Sports

*Best Bet* Boston Under (189) for 3 Units
This season, Boston has hung their hat on shutting teams down defensively; as a result, the Celtics sprang to the top of the NBA in defense and the standings. And Boston's resourceful solution off an upset loss all year has been defense, as evidenced by their 3-8 O/U mark following a loss as a favorite.The Celtics were lethargic defensively Saturday; we'll look for more passion and hustle defensively, which should negate more Josh Smith highlight reel dunks. And the Hawks' 55% from 3pt range on Saturday was a severe aberration from its measly 16% in its first 5 games vs Boston this season. Tonight, we'll look for better perimeter defense from the Celtics. And considering that this series did not top 189 in the first 5 games this season, we'll look for the Celtics, which got their wake up call Saturday, to nut up, play to their potential, and choke out the young Hawks while keeping this one "under" in a lopsided game.

Toronto Under (203') for 3 Units
This playoff series has taken a point production downturn since that opening game at Orlando in which the Magic bombed the Raptors hitting 61% in the first quarter. We've seen two straight "unders" in this series and should see an "under" here. Orlando has gone "under" in 10 of its last 13 games,control a 19-23 O/U mark at home, and sport a 14-23 O/U mark after scoring 105+. Toronto, on the other hand, is on a 9-27 O/U run on Mondays, and have gone "under" in 9 of their last 12 games.

Boston (-9) for 2 Units

MLB:

New York Yankees (+102) [Mussina Over Laffey] for 2 Units
The Yankees' Mike Mussina finally broke out of his funk last Wednesday by showing a glimpse of his old self in a solid 7 inning performance at Chicago. We'll look for him to follow up strong here; after all, the Indians aren't exactly knocking the cover off the ball at home vs righties, yet. And "Moose" sports a respectable 3.88 ERA vs Cleveland. New York controls a 23-14 mark on Mondays, 11-5 in their last 15 in this 'total' range, and cashed the ticket in 14 of 25 small road dog roles over the last 3 seasons. The Indians, however, are just 12-23 as a small home favorite and 2-5 at home in this 'total' range. We'll look for the Yankees to break out on the Indians' young southpaw - Laffey - who was called up from AAA for scheduling purposes.

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Ross Benjamin

Colorado (Morales) @ San Francisco (Cain)
Play On: San Francisco -110

The Colorado starter Morales enters the game in bad form off his last 3 starts posting an 8.40 ERA. In 2 road starts this season Morales has posted a whopping 11.00 ERA. The Rockies are ice cold right now going 1-7 in the last 8. Matt Cain has posted a stellar 1.83 ERA in 6 home team starts versus Colorado since the 2005 season. The Giants have had a good history versus left-handed starters when playing at home since the 2003 season especially when playing at night. Play on the San Francisco Giants

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Tony Matthews

20 Stars: Denver Nuggets +5.5

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Sebastian

20 NYY/Cleve Under
20 SF Giants
10 Oak/LAA Under

20 Montreal

50 Denver
50 Denver Over

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AJ Apollo

Cincinnati Reds 133 / 3 units

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Re: Monday Service Plays

INDIAN COWBOY

Nuggets +4.5 (POD)

To close out the thought that I had on the research earlier, I've always believed the +4.5 or +5.5 Home dog price is one of the most indicative of Vegas believing a team will win outright and tonight is no different in my opinion. As the research below explains, I believe this is a repeat of the Suns vs. Spurs game 4 that occurred this weekend. Nuggets are 10-3 ATS after a straight up loss of more than 10 points and the home team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 ballgames.

The article that I wrote yesterday about the Heavy favorites winning games 1 and 2, losing game 3 on the road to the underdog, then they typically come back to win game 4. Examples of series that have followed this prototype include (Hornets vs. Mavs, Magic vs. Raptors and Boston vs. Atlanta). However, the 2 series out west have not and that includes the Lakers vs. Denver and Phoenix vs. San Antonio as neither the Suns nor the Nuggets came back home to win game 3, but the Suns did win game 4 to avoid getting swept. Just based on that principle alone, it is tough for me to imagine that the Lakers want to close this baby out on the road here rather than at L.A. Furthermore, I would not be surprised to see the Nuggets, who are still a very proud team, take at least one game here as they got pummeled in game 3 - in an embarrassing way. These are still professionals and I think this team seriously took a blow to their morale. Just out of principle, this should be a play in my opinion. I'm a bit surprised to see this line overall, as 66% of the public do prefer the Lakers after the beat down they delivered in game 3, but I think this is similar to the Suns vs. Spurs in Game 4 the other day and I wouldn't be surprised to see a Nuggets outright win here, like I said, this is simply out of principle I like the Nuggs here, too much value.

Hawks +9.5

Here we go, another game in which 66% of the public is riding the Celtics. I was mentioning to a friend yesterday that Boston is not going to be in a good mood coming into this game losing a playoff game to the Hawks, who I hit the Hawks and the over in that game as I was there in Phillips and loved seeing the baby Hawks show up. You know what this game reminds me of? The Rockets vs. Utah game 4. Why? Well, many thought that Utah coming off that loss in game 3 would get fired up and show up big and blowout the Rockets. Utah did win, but they did not cover. I think something similar might happen today as the Hawks realize, this is their golden opportunity today. If they can somehow pull this game out and keep focused, they have evened this baby up. Do I think it will happen? no. However, I do think that this is likely going to be a much closer game than people realize. I do think there is a bit more defense today, but more importantly, I think the Hawks surprise some folks and hit the cover this evening. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these squads, Hawks likely lose tonight, but make an exceeded effort and fall inside the number imo.

Raptors +7.5

The bottom line here is I simply do not see the Raptors going down without a fight. Remember in Game 2, where there was ominous spread of -6.5 and it went down to -6 prior to game time and this was after the Raptors got hammered in game 1? Yet, the line was lower than what it was in game 1 as it was set at -6.5, well much is the similar case today. I look for the Magic to close this game out today, but simply too much value on Toronto who showed value at +6 on the road in game 2 and that was not even an elimination game where they barely lose by a bucket, and now getting +7.5 in an elimination game coming off a home loss is solid value here. I'll take the Raptors to possibly avoid elimination here, but more importantly, to lose but to lose within the cover. Raptors are 4-1 as underdogs of this margin and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Orlando. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar result in Game 2 where the Magic win by around a bucket.Research that went into this game: There is no more series price in this game as obviously many believe the Magic will close this baby out here and now as they have shown they can win at home and on the road all season, as well as in this series as well. The article that I wrote yesterday about the Heavy favorites winning games 1 and 2, losing game 3 on the road to the underdog, then they typically come back to win game 4. Examples of series that have followed this prototype include (Hornets vs. Mavs, Magic vs. Raptors and Boston vs. Atlanta). Thus, now, there is game 5 and I mentioned yesterday that I would not be surprised to see the Magic win this game straight up but fail to cover. Roughly just under 60% of the public believes the Magic close out here, but I find it hard to believe the Raptors will simply go away quietly. Do note that I think this game goes over as well and I lean on the Raptors to lose, but to lose within the cover today. I'll likely do a play on this game. In fact, I like the card overall today in the nba, much better than yesterday's playoff card when I took just one game

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Re: Monday Service Plays

GOLD SHEET'S LTS

L.A. LAKERS (-5)

BOSTON/ATLANTA UNDER 189 1/2

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Jim Feist

NBA
5* Celtics
Platinum Magic
Personal Best Lakers
Total Over Raptors

MLB
5* Chi Whitesox
Platinum San Francisco
Inner Circle St Louis


Dave Cokin

NBA
3* Magic
Window Celtics

MLB
Under the Hat Oakland
Total Under Rockies


Scott Spreitzer

NBA
5* Denver
KO Celtics

MLB
5* Yankees
5* San Fran
KO St Louis
Toal Over Yankees

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections

BASEBALL POWER PLAY OF THE DAY
St Louis w/Wellemeyer -138

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