Suday Service Plays
Re: Suday Service Plays
20 Dime –
YANKEES (With Wang and Sabathia as listed pitchers)
Take the Yankees for the road win this afternoon over the Indians.
C. C. Sabathia will start for Cleveland and he finally posted a quality start his last time out after getting lit up in his first four starts. The big left-hander is 1-3 with a 10.13 ERA on the season, numbers that belie his Cy Young season of 2007.
Sabathia may have gotten the monkey off his back in his last outing, but the fact remains he has struggled against the Yankees in his career, going 1-7 with a 7.13 ERA in eight starts.
The Yankees will send Chien-Ming Wang to the hill, where he’s off to a 4-0 start in five games. Wang will certainly want to atone for last year’s miserable playoff collapse, when he was tagged for 12 runs in just 5 2-3 innings in losing twice to the Tribe.
The Yankees certainly have the offense to hammer away at Sabathia, and since he doesn’t have the track record against them I like New York to get the win here.
Take the Yankees for the road win.
10 Dime –
Take the points with the Cavs in their Game 4 matchup against the Wizards this afternoon.
Cleveland was blown out in Game 3, but that can be written off as just one of those days. Washington was bound to get a win against them eventually, after dropping eight-straight playoff games to the Cavs.
But today is a new day and I expect things to revert back to normal for Cleveland, namely keeping this one close with a chance to pull off the outright win.
The Cavs are 4-1 ATS in their last five first-round playoff games – all against Washington – and are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 as a playoff dog. They are also on a 31-16 ATS run in their last 47 overall as a road underdog.
The Wizards, despite the convincing win in Game 3, are just 2-4 ATS in their last six against winning teams and 3-5 ATS in their last eight as a home chalk.
Take the points with the Cavs as they stay within the number.
5 Dime –
BRAVES (With Smoltz and Figueroa as listed pitchers)
Take the Braves for the road win over the Mets.
It’s hard not to like the Braves with this pitching matchup.
It makes it all the more appealing seeing how well John Smoltz has looked in the early going this year.
The Atlanta right-hander is 3-1 with a 0.78 ERA in four starts. He has allowed just two runs and 15 hits with 31 strikeouts in 23 innings during that span.
Trust me; Nelson Figueroa doesn’t have what it takes to match Smoltz in this one, even if Smoltz has an off-day.
Figueroa is a journeyman pitcher at best, and the only reason he’s getting a chance in the Mets’ rotation is because of the injury Pedro Martinez suffered.
Take the Braves as they grab the road win.
TWINS (With Hernandez as listed pitcher)
Take the Twins for the road win over the Rangers.
There are rumblings in Texas about manager Ron Washington’s job being in jeopardy. Texas is just 2-8 in its last 10 games and has set a franchise record already for April losses.
Now they have to right the ship against the Twins and Livan Hernandez, who’s off to a 3-0 start with a 3.55 ERA this year. Minnesota has won all five of Hernandez’ starts and I like their chances to make it six today.
Vicente Padilla will start for the Rangers and he’s coming off his worst start of the year. The right-hander gave up seven runs over three innings in a 10-2 loss at Detroit on Tuesday.
Take the Twins as they grab the road win.
Re: Suday Service Plays
2 Star Selection
Cleveland (+4) over WASHINGTON
27-Apr-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Washington was in a great spot in game 3 and responded with a 108-72 home win. Cleveland is now 0-4 ATS in the playoffs against a team that they just beat by double-digits, but the Cavs are 23-9 ATS in all other playoff games in the LeBron James era. Washington meanwhile, is now 5-0 ATS after a double-digit playoff loss but they are only 4-14 ATS in all other playoff games the last few years. Cleveland applies to a 16-3 ATS playoff situation today and my ratings favor Washington by 4 points, so the line is fair. I’ll take Cleveland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ points (lean at +3).
2-Stars at +4 or more.
San Antonio (+4) over PHOENIX
27-Apr-08 12:30 PM Pacific Time
Teams down 0 games to 3 are just 11-26 straight up and 13-24 ATS in game 4, including 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS as a favorite. That doesn’t bode well for the Suns today, but I’m not convinced that Phoenix will quit like most teams down 3 games to none do – so I’ll resist making the Spurs a Best Bet. My ratings favor the Suns by 3 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll consider San Antonio a Strong Opinion at +4 or more and I'll lean with San Antonio at +3 ½ or less.
Detroit (-5 ½) at PHILADELPHIA
27-Apr-08 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Detroit applies to a decent 20-7 ATS game 4 bounce-back situation but the Pistons should not be favored by 5 ½ points in this game. My ratings favor Detroit by only 2 ½ points and the situation isn’t quite as significant as the negative line value. I have no opinion on this game.
3 Star Selection
New Orleans (+5) over DALLAS
27-Apr-08 06:30 PM Pacific Time
Dallas took advantage of a very good situation and won game 3, but New Orleans applies to a very good 20-2 ATS subset of a 68-26-4 ATS playoff situation tonight. The Hornets don’t play poorly in consecutive games very often 21-9 ATS after a spread loss this season and my ratings favor Dallas by just 4 points, so we have some line value to go along with the good situation. I’ll take New Orleans in a 3-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 2-Stars at +3 ½ points.
Re: Suday Service Plays
3.5-Unit Play. Take Over 9.5 Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (1:30 p.m., Sunday, April 27)
3-Unit Play. Take #953 Philadelphia (-135) over Pittsburgh (1:30 p.m., Sunday, April 27)
3.5-Unit Play. Take Over 9.0 Chicago Cubs at Washington (1:30 p.m., Sunday, April 27)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #955 Chicago Cubs (-125) over Washington (1:30 p.m., Sunday, April 27)
4.5-Unit Play. Take #969 Boston (-130) over Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m., Sunday, April 27)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #969 Boston (-1.5, +135) over Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m., Sunday, April 27)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #980 Detroit (-135) over Los Angeles Angels (8 p.m., Sunday, April 27)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #978 Seattle (-145) over Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, April 27)
2-Unit Play. Take #965 Colorado (-105) over Los Angeles Dodgers (4 p.m., Sunday, April 27)
2.5-Unit Play. Take Under 9.5 New York Yankees at Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, April 27)
2.5-Unit Play. Take Under9.0 Toronto at Kansas City