Thursday Service Plays

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Wild Bill

Astros +155 (2 units)
St Louis +105 (4 units)
Over 8 1/2 AZ-Dodgers (2 units)
Over 10 Texas-Tigers (1 unit)
Toronto +110 (1 unit)
Royals gm 1 +110 (2 units)
Royals gm 2 +120 (2 units)
Seattle -160 (3 units)

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Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on San Francisco Giants +124
(listing Young and Lincecum)

It's already becoming the Padres problem again.  They can't score runs in their home ball park to support their pitchers so they lose close games.  Young has been struggling ever since the second half of last season while Lincecum is looking like the ace of the future for the Giants.  The Padres are 0-5 in Young's last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, 0-4 in Young's last 4 starts vs. the National League West, and 3-8 in Young's last 11 starts as a favorite overall.  The Padres are just 1-7 in their last 8 overall and 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Giants are 7-2 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record, 4-1 in Lincecum's last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game, 6-2 in Lincecum's last 8 starts with 4 days of rest, and 11-5 in Lincecum's last 16 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  Take the Giants tonight.

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Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Atlanta Braves -140
(listing James)

I like the Braves tonight with the southpaw James on the hill as Florida has had a rough of it against lefties.  In fact, the Marlins are just 4-12 in their last 16 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Braves are 5-1 in James' last 6 starts and 4-0 in James' last 4 starts vs. the National League East.  The Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  At 13-6 their last 19 games as a home favorite, the Braves have been a solid bet in the home chalk role.  Take the Tomahawks tonight.

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BIG AL McMORDIE

THURSDAY NIGHT NBA WINNER

Wizards

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Trace Adams

Utah Jazz


Sports Book Edge 

SF Giants/SD Padres Over 7


Valley Sports 

Magic/Raptors Over 202
TB D'rays -115


Bob Akmens 

To.Raptors -4
Min.Can/Ph.Flyers Un.5.5
LA Dodgers/Ariz.D'backs Un.8.5


LPW Sports Forecast

Magic +4 


Pure Lock 

Indians -120


R&R Totals 

Mets/Nationals Un.9


Beat Your Bookie

Red Wings


Silver Key Play

Cubs/COLORADO Over 9.5


Lance's Lock

Wizards -5


2-Minute Warning

Utah Jazz

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Ferringo

3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Philadelphia at Milwaukee
1-Unit Play. Take Milwaukee (-130) over Philadelphia
First, we have Milwaukee against a left-handed starter. They destroy lefties. Case closed. Next, we have two shaky bullpens. I predicted a meltdown from one of them last night to give us an ‘over’ and they obliged. I look for more of the same. Finally, we have Jeff Kellogg behind the dish. He is 5-0 against the total so far this year and issues nearly nine walks per game. The 'over' is 22-10 in Milwaukee's last 32 home games and is 21-8 at home against a left-handed starter. The 'over' is also 5-1 in the last six meetings in Brewer Country.

3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.0 Arizona at Los Angeles Dodgers
Chad Billingsley didn’t make it out of the third inning in Arizona a couple weeks ago and Edgar Gonzalez didn’t make it out of the fourth in his last outing against the Dodgers. These two starters have a combined ERA of over 10.00. The Dodgers are finally starting to hit the ball. If they got to Haren last night I think they’ll get on Gonzalez tonight. The ‘over’ is 9-2-1 in Arizona’s last 12 and we know they can hit the ball. Toss in the fact that Walk Machine Bob Davidson is behind the dish and I think we’re going to squeeze another ‘over’ out of these N.L. West foes.

3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 New York Mets at Washington
The Nationals hit .227 against left-handed pitching. The Mets hit .231 against right-handed pitching. Daryl Cousins is behind the dish and he has a pretty liberal strike zone. Neither club has really been slamming the ball and I expect a nip-tuck affair. We’ll back the Mets here as well since they are clearly the better team and are 22-5 in their last 27 at Washington.

3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Baltimore at Seattle
Here’s a random prediction for you: one of the managers for these teams is going to get tossed. Call it a hunch. We have Casey Moser behind the plate tonight, a relative unknown ump. But I did some digging on his minor league games and he has a wild strike zones. His games see a lot of walks and a lot of strikeouts. The Orioles beat up left-handed pitching, and the Mariners beat up left-handed pitching. Sure enough: two lefties on the bump. Hopefully Moser will be squeezing them, and after two straight low-scoring games I look for one of these teams to break out. The ‘over’ is 7-4 in the last 11 meetings, 4-0 in Washburn’s last four against the Orioles, and 8-4-1 in the last 13 meetings in the Emerald City. The ‘over’ is also 11-5 in Baltimore’s last 16 against a left-handed pitcher.

3-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 8.5 Cleveland at Kansas City
NOTE: THIS IS GAME 2 OF THE DOUBLEHEADER. BANNISTER VS. LEE. I would also say to wait on playing this game - depending on how the movement goes early in the day. I think there's going to be a bunch of runs scored in the first game so that might help bump this total up to 9.0. Tack on an extra half-Unit if it gets to 9.0.

Both Brian Bannister and Cliff Lee have been very, very sharp this April. They have combined for a miniscule 2.82 ERA in their starts this year and I think they're going to be facing backups and bench players in the second game of this double-dip. The litany of 'under' trends on these two teams, and Kansas City in particular, is too long to list here. But trust me, there's a lot. The most obvious is this: the 'under' is 47-20-1 in Kansas City's last 88 games. But the real ace in the hole here is Jeff Nelson. The ump is 16-36 against the total in his last 52 games. That's 69.2 percent. Going back even further, he is 58-92 against the total dating back to the start of 2003. That's 61.4 percent over 150 trials. That's automatic. Also, if our play in Game 1 somehow doesn't come through I would recommend doubling down on the Indians in Game 2. I just don't see them getting swept in a doubleheader at Kansas City, a place they've been exceptional over the last decade.

2-Unit Play. Take Cleveland (-145) over Kansas City
NOTE: THIS IS GAME 1 OF THE DOUBLEHEADER. CARMONA VS. TOMKO.

The oddsmakers have completely screwed this one up. Just like they did on Tuesday. Basically, they’re buying the hype. Everyone has been dogging Fausto Carmona and C.C. Sabathia while applauding the Royals. The trouble is that the Indians are a much better team than the Royals, and Carmona has beaten them four consecutive times. In fact, the Indians are 24-8 against the A.L. Central and 14-3 in Carmona’s last 17 divisional starts. They won 15-1 on Tuesday. It’s clearly going to be closer than that, but I don’t expect any quarter to be given by the Tribe. Carmona has had one bad start this year. Other than that he’s given up just two earned runs in 20 innings against lineups like Detroit and Los Angeles.

1.5-Unit Play. Take Toronto (+105) over Tampa Bay
Andy Sonnastine had given up 15 runs in 22 innings before hurling a complete game shutout in his last outing. I think he comes back to earth. I also don't see the Rays mustering a sweep in this series. I'm a Dustin McGowan supporter and I think he steps up with a stopper's performance in this one.

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Wunderdog

Philadelphia at Milwaukee
Pick: Philadelphia +118

Chase Utley is on fire. He's hitting .483 and has seven home runs in his last seven games and leads the Majors with ten. He and the rest of the Phils face Jeff Suppan this afternoon who has gone just 3-5 with a 6.18 ERA in ten starts against the Phillies. He's just 21-33 in home games against NL teams that average 4.8+ runs per game. Philadelphia is averaging 6.0 rpg in their last seven games and have the offense to be able to stay with the Brewers in this one. When this game gets late, Philadelphia will have a distinct advantage (2.03 bullpen road ERA to a 5.58 home ERA for Milwaukee). The Brew Crew is just 35-54 the past two seasons to a line of -125 to +125. We'll back the Phils here.

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David Malinsky 4*

Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Chicago Cubs

It has been most unusual to see the way that the marketplace has handled this one so far today - not only is it rare for a slumping team on an 0-4 run to merely be favored at all over the hottest team in the league, with the Cubs on a current 6-0 tear, but we have seen the line continue to climb since hitting the board. It has now reached our “go” price, and that provides outstanding value for the setting.

Chicago did more than just rally to win a tight game last night, it was a case of one team statistically dominating the other, but having a close result create undue market influence. Our offensive “score” for the game was 32-19 in favor of the Cubs, but it was a night in which they were not efficient offensively - 15 hits and three walks over 10 innings, including two doubles, two triples, two home runs and a pair of stolen bases, will usually produce more than the seven runs that they scored. Meanwhile the Rockies actually maxed out their production, getting about as much as the laws of baseball allow for their base-runner count. So the Cubs are not riding a wave right now, they are playing outstanding baseball, scoring 51 runs in that 6-0 surge. Yet they are still being viewed by some as the team that they used to be, and not what is emerging under Lou Piniella.

Guess who leads the National League in pitches per at-bat? Yes, the Cubs, who are 2nd in the league in walks, despite not finishing higher than 14th in that category in any of the last three seasons. They are also second in stolen bases. When you combine that new discipline with a lineup that packs punch (1st in the N.L. in batting average; 1st in runs; 1st in rbi’s; tied for 4th in home runs), you are on your way to something. and it does not merit the underdog range against Aaron Cook and a struggling Colorado bullpen.

Cook helps to set this price by showing good form so far, but he pitches to contact, and we like the new Cub discipline as a matchup against him. And behind Cook, Clint Hurdle can only scratch his head. Closer Manny Corpas may have to be relived of the role, having blown half of his eight save opportunities and seeing his ERA soar to 7.50. And after throwing 47 pitches the last two nights he badly needs a day off anyway, but where does Hurdle turn? Former closer Brian Fuentes would ordinarily inherit the role, but he has pitched four times over the past five days, including last night, which means that even if he does go fatigue is a real issue. That means that we do not have to get an early break-out from the Cubs to win here - there is plenty of time in the latter stages.

For Chicago Jason Marquis is off of a sharp win vs. Pittsburgh in which he had as many strikeouts as hits + walks combined, and the bullpen brings much more than Colorado, even with Carlos Marmol a likely fatigue absentee. That makes the value here too good to pass up.

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Tom Freese

Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners 

Seattle starter Jarrod Wasburn is in awesome KW form with a 9 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts Washburn has been on the winning side in 8 of his 11 career team starts vs. the Orioles. The Mariners are 24-8 their last 32 home games vs. lefties. Baltimore starter Adam Loewen has allowed 12 runs in 15.2 innings of work in his first 3 starts this year. The Orioles are 5-16 their last 21 games vs. lefties and they are 10-22 away off win.

Play on: Seattle

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Yankee Capper

3 Units - Marlins/Braves Over 10

2 Units - Jazz/Rockets Over 182

2 Units - Flyers/Canadiens Over 5½

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Larry Ness' Terrific Thursday Total-MLB (28-13 with MLB totals in '07)
Pitt/StL over 9
wink

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Bob Akmens

MLB: 4* MILWAUKEE (SUPPAN) -130 vs Philadelphia (Moyer)

MLB: 4* CLEVELAND (CARMONA) -145 vs Kansas City (Tomko)

MLB: 4* PITTSBURGH / ST LOUIS OVER 9.0 (-130)

MLB: 4* NY METS (PEREZ) -145 vs Washington (Hill)

NBA: 3* UTAH -8.5

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Matty O'Shea

ATL -1.5 (+130) vs FLA

Analysis: The Atlanta Braves are just 10-11 on the young season, but all of their wins have been decided by two runs or more, with nine of them won by at least three runs.That bodes very well for us tonight against the first-place Florida Marlins, who are hitting just .198 against lefties this season.Atlanta southpaw Chuck James gets the call again after limiting the Dodgers to only one run and four hits in a 4-1 victory last Saturday.James is 3-1 with a 1.19 ERA lifetime against the Marlins, who are hitting just .194 against him in those games.Meanwhile, Florida rookie Burke Badenhop will be facing the Braves for the first time in his career, and he has not gone more than five innings in either of his two starts this year.Opponents are hitting .297 against Badenhop so far, and Atlanta is hitting .305 against righties at home.Look for the Braves to break out of their offensive slump tonight against Badenhop and bet them on the runline as my Single Dime MLB Value Play O' the Day

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

JB's Computer Plays

Detroit Tigers - 185

Tampa Bay Rays - 120

New York Mets - 135

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Ben Burns

4 units Colorado Rockies


JB Sports

Toronto Raptors -4.0  / 3 units

Washington Wizards -5.0  / 5 units

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GINA

New York Mets (11-9) at Washington Nationals (6-16)

The New York Mets have won six of their last nine games and all four against the Nationals this season.

New York will send Oliver Perez to the hill. The lefthander has pitched sound and is 2-2 with a 5.26 ERA in five career starts against the Nationals. The Mets have won Perez's last 4 road starts. Washington counters with Shawn Hill. The right-hander is 0-0 with a 7.20 ERA in his only start this season. The Nationals are 2-7 in Hills' last 9 starts, 1-4 in his last 5 at home.

Look for New York to continue its supremacy over Washington. Go with the Mets against the struggling Nationals. Washington is 2-6 at home, just 6-16 thus far this year

New York Mets - 135


NBA

Cleveland Cavaliers (47-37) at Washington Wizards (43-41)

The Wizards are in a mess, down two games with key players playing poorly. The only positive in tonight?s match is being back at the Verizon Center. Washington is 5-1 in its last six games at home, but the way they are shooting it won't be enough to grab a win against the Cavaliers.

The Wizards should have a much better outcome tonight in Game 3 and make this a competitive fight, but taking the points seems to be the best choice. Cleveland has won eight straight playoff games versus the Wizards, going 6-2 ATS.

Cleveland Cavaliers


Cleveland Cavaliers + 5

Utah Jazz -8½

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Strike Point

Chicago +115 over Colorado

The Cubs are locked in right now. They are the hottest collection of bats in baseball, and that's a good reason why they're producing this strong winning streak. Well, they are still in Coors Field, so look for the offense to continue and for Chicago to post another 'W'.

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Fairway Jay

Milwaukee Brewers 3 units (Suppan listed)

Chicago Cubs 3 units (Marquis listed)

Toronto Blue Jays 4 units


Erin Rynning

Playmaker: LA Dodgers -130

Kansas City +110
Game 2 Doubleheader (Bannister/Lee)

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EZWINNERS

MLB

2 STAR: (905) CHICAGO (+$110) over Colorado
(Listing Marquis and Cook)
(Risking $200 to win $220)

2 STAR: (921) MINNESOTA (+$110) over Oakland
(Listing Liriano only)
(Risking $200 to win $220)

1 STAR: (901) HOUSTON (+$155) over Cincinnati
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $155)

1 STAR: (920) BOSTON (-$109) over LA Angels
(Listing Masterson and Saunders)
(Risking $109 to win $100)

NBA

5 STAR: (521) HOUSTON (+9) over Utah
(Risking $550 to win $500)

3 STAR: (519) CLEVELAND (+5) over Washington
(Risking $330 to win $300)

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Michael Cannon

20 Dime

CAVALIERS

Take the points with the Cavs tonight when they resume their playoff series with the Wizards in Washington.

Nothing Ive seen from Washington so far makes me think they can suddenly step up and cover this number just because they?re playing at home.

The Wizards three best scoring threats, Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler and Gilbert Arenas, are all shooting below 40 percent, including a combined 6-for-22 from 3-point range.

LeBron James is having a great series so far and it seems like Washingtons strategy is centered more on delivering hard fouls to him rather than what they need to be working on themselves to get back into the series.

Washington has lost eight straight playoff games to Cleveland over the last three seasons. The Cavs are also on a 4-1 SUATS run in the last five overall meetings with the Wizards.

Sometimes a team just doesn?t match up well with its opponent, and that appears to be the case here with the Wizards.

Take the points with the Cavaliers as LeBron and company keep it within the number.

5 Dime

BLUE JAYS (With McGowan as listed pitcher)

Take the Blue Jays as the small road dog tonight over the Rays.

Justin McGowan has looked good in all four of his starts this year. He?s 2-0 with a 3.58 ERA in four career starts versus the Rays as well.

The Rays will be looking for the sweep tonight, but I don?t like their chances of pulling it off. Andy Sonnanstine will get the start and he?s coming off a three-hit shutout in Saturday?s 5-0 win over the White Sox, but his track record suggests that hes not likely to duplicate that again tonight.

Take the Blue Jays as they grab the road win.


INDIANS Game 1 of Doubleheader (With Carmona and Tomko as listed pitchers)

Take the Tribe for the road win tonight over the Royals.

The Indians offense broke out in a big way last night with 15 runs and 17 hits and I wouldnt be surprised to see a similar output tonight.

They probably wont need such an outburst with Fausto Carmona getting the start. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA on the year, which is impressive considering the control issues he had through his first three starts. But Carmona looks like he might have that issue resolved after issuing just one free pass in his last start.

Brett Tomko will start for Kansas City and I don?t expect him to quell the Tribes offense. Royals starters have allowed 46 runs in their last five losses, and Tomko is coming off a start in which he allowed five runs in seven innings last Thursday.

Take the Indians as they grab the road win.

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