Tuesday Service Plays

Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Jake Timlin

Real simple tonight take the Padres on the road over Houston all thanks to Jake Peavy. No doubt about it the Padres are struggling, but not when Peavy takes the mound as the righty is the only positive thing going for San Diego. You see when Peavy take the hill San Diego always has a shot at a win as the righty looks to continue his 3-0 record with 1.20 ERA. Included in Jake’s record is a 4-0 win over the same Houston team to open the season where Peavy dominated the Astros and will once again tonight as San Diego will get enough run support for Peavy thanks to Backe to who has been less then impressive at 1-3 this season. Bottom line tonight is thanks to Peavy look for the Padres to get back into the win column.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

David Malinsky 4*

Giants (RL) @ Diamondbacks (RL)
PICK: Diamondbacks (RL)

Last Wednesday we backed Brandon Webb straight on the road against Barry Zito, noting just how large the gap was both in pitching and on offense in that setting. It led to an easy 4-1 Arizona win, and now tonight we are able to play the Run Line in a wholesalers pick’em range. We will go to the well again.

The young Diamondback lineup has made major strides since LY’s weak offensive showing, but the marketplace has yet to adjust properly. They lead the N.L. in runs and home runs; are second in batting average; and third in doubles and walks. And it is not as though any one or two players is setting a tone - six different Arizona hitters already have three or more home runs and 10 or more rbi’s, and in a quick second look against Barry Zito we can expect their surge to continue.

This price is kept within reason by Zito sporting a respectable 4.50 ERA, but that is a mirage. As the velocity on his fastball drops it lessens the gap that made his curveball so effective for years, and he is having a real problem missing bats these days. Opponents are batting .315 against him, with four home runs in 22 innings, and he has more walks (9) than strikeouts (8). But there are six unearned runs that do not show in his base ledger, which keeps the world from fully realizing how far he has fallen. In his four starts the Giants have been beaten by 21 runs, and a guy that is almost purely finesse at this point has a difficult matchup in a quick second look against a lineup that should read him well (five walks vs. only two strikeouts last week).

Meanwhile Webb is showing Cy Young form at 4-0/1.86 and note that the ERA does not do full justice to a 0.70 WHIP. Because of his outstanding control (eight walks in 29 innings) he is not going to give anything away, and the San Francisco lineup is hard-pressed to produce when that is the case. That gives us a unique perspective for this one - of the 14 Arizona wins, 13 have come by multiple runs, while of the 12 San Francisco losses, nine have come by 2+. When making that pattern the back-drop against the extremes of tonight’s matchup, we have excellent value.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Eddie Roman
15,000 Unit Playoff Parlay Winner
Under the posted total of 193.5 (Dallas – New Orleans)
and
Phoenix +2 over San Antonio

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

LT Profits

San Diego Padres @ Houston Astros Over 8.0

Now Jake Peavy is obviously one of the best pitchers in baseball, but we feel that the San Diego Padres are capable of scoring at least six runs in this game vs. the Houston Astros, which would make the Over rather easily attainable at this low number.

First of all, the Over is 26-8-2 in the Padres’ last 36 road games stretching back to last season, and San Diego road contests are averaging 9.10 runs this season, more than a full run higher than this total. Secondly, they are facing Brandon Backe, who was touched up for six runs and 10 hits in only three innings in his last start. Finally, the Houston bullpen is currently ranked 22nd out of 30 Major League teams with a 4.55 ERA.

Now granted, Peavy doesn’t figure to allow much, but if the Padres grab as big a lead as we expect here, we doubt Peavy will be allowed to go more than seven innings. That means the San Diego bullpen will see some action, and that unit has actually been worse than Houston’s so far, ranking 23rd with a 4.73 group ERA.

It may be tight for a while, but we do see at least nine runs being scored by the end of this game.

Pick: Padres, Astros Over 8 


Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs Under 192.0

What may have been forgotten in the Game 1 “Instant Classic” double overtime 117-115 San Antonio Spurs win over the Phoenix Suns in this series is the fact that the game was well Under, at 186 points, at the end of regulation.

Unders are nothing new for the Spurs, as their home games have still averaged just a combined 186.5 points this year even including Game 1. The team knows better than any other that defense wins championships, as they won the NBA title last season with their playoff games averaging only 187.4 points. In fact, the Spurs’ last 72 home playoff games overall have averaged just 183.3 points, with the Under going 40-32, 55.6 percent in those games.

Now the Suns are usually allergic to defense, although they have gotten somewhat better lately after Shaq arrived. Still, the Spurs are probably the only team that has been able to slow them down consistently, as the Under is 9-4 in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these clubs with the run-and-gun Suns averaging just 95.5 points in those encounters.

We look for a similar pace as in Game 1 here, so hopefully, there won’t be any more overtimes blowing up a safe Under.

Pick: Suns, Spurs Under 192

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

SportsKingz

MLB

SAN DIEGO -155

SEATTLE -190

5 TEAMER: ARIZONA, SAN DIEGO, SEATTLE, ATLANTA, ST.LOUIS


NBA

ORLANDO -6

ORLANDO UNDER 199

NEW ORLEANS -4

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Priceless Picks

1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -135
(listing Shields and Litsch)

We'll get behind the Rays' ace at home tonight.  The Rays are 5-0 in Shields' last 5 home starts, 5-1 in Shields' last 6 starts vs. the American League East, 5-1 in Shields' last 6 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5, and 6-1 in Shields' last 7 starts as a favorite.  The Blue Jays are 2-7 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400, 1-4 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series, and 0-5 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Blue Jays are also just 3-8 in Litsch's last 11 starts vs. a team with a losing record and 2-6 in Litschs last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.  Take the Rays at home.

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Insider Sports Report

4* St. Louis (Lohse) -105 over Milwaukee (Parra)
Range +110 to -125

3* Orlando -5.5 over Toronto (NBA)
Range -4 to -7.5

3* Phoenix +2.5 over San Antonio (NBA)
Range +4 to +.5

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Ben Burns

Calgary Flames @ San Jose Sharks
PICK: San Jose Sharks

REASON FOR PICK: The Flames have earned everyone's respect, including the respect of their oppponent. However, asking them to win a Game 7 on the road against a very powerful San Jose club is asking an awful lot. This is San Jose's time of year, as they've gone 73-44 (+33.9) their last 117 April games. During the same stretch, the Flames are a money-burning 36-48 (-16.5) when playing in the month of April.

Yes, the price is expensive and its a higher price than I'd normally lay in the regular season. However, the playoffs are a different ballgame and when we consider that the Sharks were orginally -300 (or more) to win the series, it seems a lot more reasonable. Knowing that the Sharks are 10-2 their last 12 games here is also comforting. Note the Flames are just 4-8 their last 12 on the road.

We saw what happened last night, when the underdog Bruins battled back to force a Game 7. The home team Canadiens won by a score of 5-0. The Sharks have won the last two games here by a combined score of 6-3 and I expect home ice to prove the difference again tonight. I'm laying the price with what I feel is the better team.
Ben Burns is 6-2 his last eight baseball bets and 40-23 his last 63. Ben has released three 4-game reports this baseball season. All four cashed with the individual plays going an AWESOME 10-2. The NEXT ONE goes today and it's got all the makings of another S-W-E-E-P. Don't even consider missing out!

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Winning Points Online

NY METS (Figueroa) +105 over CHICAGO CUBS (Lilly)

After notching a win with the Cubs on this page yesterday, we will now change course and come back with the visiting Mets. Ted Lilly has stumbled badly to start the '08 campaign (-$285, 9.17 ERA) and the Mets check in here with an 8-1 record vs southpaws (+$650 with 5.6 runs per game). NY starter Nelson Figueroa has been a nice addition to the visitors' rotation (+$200, 2.77 ERA in his two outings) and looks like an excellent value as an underdog in this afternoon matchup. Chicago has lost money (-$195) in day games vs. righties here at Wrigley.


NBA

**PREFERRED
New Orleans* over Dallas by 11

What's Dallas' edge? That they flew home in between games, and they won road games in prior post-seasons by leaving town, making adjustments, and then returning?

Isn't that special? Jason Kidd's addition to the Mavericks hasn't elevated their play since he got there, so with an opportunity to make up for the Game 1 mistake pick on Dallas, the question of how he elevates them at this point needs an answer.

If you have it, send it along. Otherwise, consider that Byron Scott's hatred of Kidd might be more effective than Kidd's hatred of Scott, given that Scott -- in position to have the best scouting report against Kidd as his ex-coach -- has already ordered several effective defensive maneuvers against him: Forcing Kidd to turn his back to receive entry passes instead of catching them on the run, and guarding the long upcourt passes in transition. When you make a halfcourt player out of Jason Kidd, you create something more along the lines of Joe Forte. Or Smush Parker.

This is the first game on the TNT double-header card tonight,in front of Phoenix-San Antonio. So, expect physicality with fewer fouls than in Game 1, when Dallas attempted 38 free throws and New Orleans 26 (thinking Under) in a game that went Over by ''only'' 3 points.

NEW ORLEANS 99-88

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

PHILLY CONNECTION

Oakland-140


Gamblers Data

Arizona -1.5 -115

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Sprietzer

Major Mismatch
St. Louis Cardinals

TKO
New York Mets

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Ferringo

1-Unit Play. Take St. Louis (+110) over Milwaukee

2.5-Unit Play. Take Cleveland (-125) over Kansas City

2.5-Unit Play. Take Colorado (-115) over Philadelphia

1.5-Unit Play. Take Detroit (-160) over Texas

1-Unit Play. Take San Diego (-150) over Houston

2-Unit Play. Take Arizona (-1.5, +115) over San Francisco

Today's totals

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 10.5 New York Mets at Chicago Cubs

1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.0 Los Angeles Angels at Boston

1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 7.5 San Francisco at Arizona


Sorry, no writeups today. But this is all of my selections.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Winners Edge

NBA

SA SPURS -2 , 2 UNITS

MAGIC/RAPTORS UNDER 199 , 2 UNITS


MLB

NY METS EVEN , 2 UNITS

ATLANTA BRAVES RL-1.5 , 2 UNITS

KC ROYALS +125 , 1 UNIT

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Young Gun Sports

5* Dallas Mavs

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

BIG AL McMORDIE

NATIONAL LEAGUE GAME OF THE WEEK WINNER.

Colorado Rockies

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Bob Valentino

TUESDAY'S 40 DIME NBA PLAYOFF WINNER

40 DIME SUNS

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Psychic

NBA
3 units Dallas +3.5
3 units Orlando -5
4 units San Antonio -2 (Major)
MLB
1 unit Texas +152


DA STICK

NHL
5 units Calgary +160
MLB
10 units Ny Yankees -131

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Fat Jack

Toronto +5 1/2

San Antonio -2

The Dallas Game To Go Under The Total Of 193 1/2

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