Thursday Service Plays

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LT Profits

Washington Capitals @ Philadelphia Flyers Under 5.5

The Washington Capitals and the Philadelphia Flyers have gone Over in two of the first three games of this series, but we expect tonight’s game to closely resemble Game 2, which was won by Philadelphia 2-0.

Game 3 got out of hand early when the Flyers scored three goals in the first period, putting the Capitals in an offensive posture in the early stages. With their playoff lives virtually on the line here, we look for Washington to be more defensive at the outset, knowing they could ill afford to fall behind early with a possible 3-1 series deficit staring them in the face.

It is not as if the Capitals can’t play defense, as they allowed three goals or less in each of their last seven regular season games including allowing two goals or less in five of them, and they were certainly stingy in that 2-0 loss in Game 2. In fact, the Under is surprisingly 45-37 in all Washington games this year, as the presence of Alexander Ovechkin has probably in inflated their totals a bit.

Speaking of Ovechkin, the Flyers have done an amazing job of shutting him down this series, and tonight may be another struggle for him as Flyers defenseman Kimmo Timonen will be playing after leaving Game 3 early with a shoulder injury. Besides shutting down Ovechkin, the Flyers have gotten some nice goaltending from Marty Biron in this series, whose shutout in Game 2 was his sixth of the year.

Thus, we look for both teams to be defensive-minded for at least the first period, and probably longer for the Flyers as they continue to concentrate of stopping Ovechkin. Thus, as long as the Flyers don’t get any cheap early goals, we do not see these teams exceeding five combined goals tonight.

Pick: Capitals, Flyers Under 5.5


Washington Nationals +150

The New York Mets have taken the first two games of this series, but we are looking for the underdog Washington Nationals to avoid the sweep here.

This could be considered more of a play against Mets starter Nelson Figueroa, who does not merit this much favoritism over anyone. Yes he pitched well in his Mets debut as a starter, allowing two runs and only two hits in six innings, but keep in mind that was his first start in four years. We simply do not trust him at this big price at this point in time.

Granted, Nationals starter John Lannan got bombed by the Atlanta Braves in his last start after pitching well in his seasonal debut. However, we still consider the starting pitching matchup here a wash, which immediately makes Washington worth a look as big dogs. We expect both bullpens to get called on fairly early here, and the Nats have the deeper pen in our opinion.

The Nationals gave the Mets fits last season, in fact sweeping a three-game series here at Shea Stadium during the New Yorkers’ incredible choke at the end of the year, and we look for the Nats to salvage a game in this series at a very nice price.

Pick: Nationals +150

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ATS Hockey Lock Club

4 units Flyers
3 units Stars

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Jeff Money

(NHL) DAL -125 (POD)
(MLB) CARDS -110
(MLB) INDIANS -115
(MLB) WHITESOX EV

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EZWINNERS

MLB

1 STAR: (965) DETROIT (+$114) over Cleveland
(Listing Verlander only)
(Risking $100 to win $114)

1 STAR: (951) TAMPA BAY (+$105) over Minnesota
(Listing Hammel and Bonser)
(Risking $100 to win $105)

1 STAR: (961) COLORADO (+$171) over San Diego
(Listing Francis only)
(Risking $100 to win $171)

1 STAR: (976) OAKLAND (-$105) over Seattle
(Listing Dinardo and Silva)
(Risking $105 to win $100)

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FERRRINGO

2-Unit Play. Take #954 St. Louis (-115) over Milwaukee
Kyle Lohse is 13-3 against divisional opponents over the past two seasons and has looked sharp early in the year. The Brewers are just 33-67 on the road when the line is between -125 and +125 over the past three years. The Cardinals have been very sharp lately and are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.

3-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (-150) over Florida

1-Unit Play. Take Los Angeles Angels (-155) over Kansas City

1-Unit Play. Take #970 Toronto (-1.5, +110) over Texas

1-Unit Play. Take #964 Baltimore (-110) over Chicago White Sox

1-Unit Play. Take #955 Cincinnati (+125) over Chicago Cubs

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Cal Sports

5* GOM Under Twins
4* St Louis
3* Kc

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Wunderdog

Washington at Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia -135

What can you say about those Flyers? Wow they are really putting on a show. They have shutdown Ovechkin. Ovechkin seems frustrated and ineffective in his first three games against the Flyers. Let's not discount the Flyers though. They have scored 12 times in three games including six goals in game 3. Another bright spot for the Flyers in great penalty killing. The flyers stopped seven-of-eight power plays in game 3 - no doubt helping them win the game. Tough defense, shutting down Ovechkin and team scoring will help the Flyers pull off another win at home. Take Philadelphia at home.

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LEE KOSTROSKI

Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are quite adept at handling left-handed pitching with a .303 team average against southpaws so far this season. The Seattle win last night was the seventh consecutive win in Oakland and the Mariners dominated this series last season, going 14-5 against the A's including 8-1 in Oakland. The Mariners offense is starting to come together with 7.4 runs per game scored in the last five games and Seattle has received solid performances from free agent acquisition Carlos Silva.

Silva allows a lot of hits but he gets a lot of ground balls and double play opportunities and rarely walks hitters. Silva is 2-0 in his three starts this season and he has pitched at least seven innings in all three games. In home games this season Oakland is hitting just .221 and the A's are a bit overrated right now with a strong early record based on winning close games. The A's have dropped three of the last four games and in the last four games the offense has produced a total of just six runs.

Lenny DiNardo is a reserve option for the A's as two starters have hit the DL already this season and he has allowed four runs and ten hits in his last five innings pitched. The Mariners hung seven runs in three innings when they faced DiNardo last season and the Athletics pitching staff is a bit short-handed right now with injuries. Seattle should continue to have success in this match-up and Oakland has struggled at home and as a favorite, going 2-7 in the last nine games when favored and just 4-11 in the last 15 at home.

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DAVE MALINSKY 4*

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Over

We did not have to wait long a all to get what was needed cash a 4* Over ticket between these two on this field last night, with the Total being reached before the midway point in the game. Things don’t change on Thursday, despite the fact that the reputation of the starting pitchers brings us an even shorter price to deal with - Under 9 at even money has been made available in the marketplace.

Justin Verlander has been an ugly 0-2/6.52 out of the gate this season, which does not bring a lot of confidence from his end against a lineup, and in a ballpark, where a personal house of horrors has taken place. He is an awful 1-4/9.19 in his last six starts against the Indians, including an 0-3/12.91 from this mound, and it is easy to see the problem - tonight’s projected Cleveland starting lineup has hit nine home runs in 140 career at-bats against him. His current form does not call for that to change, and behind him the Tigers do not bring anyone from the bullpen (5.09) that slows down the flow.

Fausto Carmona also brings more respect than form to the mound tonight. His 2.20 ERA disguises a 1.65 WHIP, and he leads the Major’s in walks with 17, which contrasts in a most negative way to a count of only 10 strikeouts. The veterans in the Detroit lineup create one of the worst possible matchups for a pitcher that is struggling with the strike zone (they drew nine walks last night), and the options behind Carmona for the latter stages have to be keeping Eric Wedge up at night - the Cleveland bullpen has an ERA of 5.63 for the season, and three different relievers gave up runs in last night’s blowout.

On a warm evening in Cleveland there is the potential for a big inning at any time in this one.

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Info Plays

3* on Astros/Phillies UNDER 9.5
(Listing Backe and Myers)

Brandon Backe and Brett Myers are the No. 2 men in the starting rotations for their respective teams.  Both are pitching like aces to start the season.  Backe has just a 2.25 ERA in 3 starts while not allowing more than 2 earned runs in any start.  Brett Myers has been tremendous at home, allowing just 10 hits and 2 walks in 13 innings of work.  This game will go well UNDER the posted 9.5 runs today.  Jimmy Rollins has an ankle injury that has kept him out of the lineup for nearly two weeks now.  Without this speedster on the field for the Phillies, it will make a bigger impact than the odds makers are anticipating.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the Phillies last 6 games overall.  The UNDER is 7-2 in the Astros last 9 games overall.  Neither team can get their bats going and it’s not about to change with Backe and Myers on the hill tonight.  Bet the UNDER 9.5 Runs.

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PRICELESS PICKS

1 Unit on Red Sox/Yankees UNDER 10 Runs
(listing Beckett and Mussina)

After putting a lot of runs on the board yesterday, I look for the bats to cool off a little bit as a couple high quality starters head to the hill.  The Under is 9-2 in Beckett's last 11 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5, 7-3 in Beckett's last 10 starts vs. American League East, and 9-4-1 in Beckett's last 14 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Under is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 during game 2 of a series, 6-1 in Yankees last 7 vs. a team with a winning record, and 12-4 in Yankees last 16 overall.  The Under is 9-4 in Mussina's last 13 starts during game 2 of a series.  Bet the UNDER here.

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Sebastian-OVER Phillies

Winner Line-Angels

OTM-Seattle

Computer Boys-Atlanta

All Amercian-Oakland

Kevin Kenedy-Oakland

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kbhoopsfanatics Chicago Cubs -127

seeyouinthewinnerscircle  St Louis Cardinals -114

CM Million Dollar Picks  St Louis Cardinals -116

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Winning Points Online

BOSTON (Beckett) -125 over NY YANKEES (Mussina)

Although the Yankee's bats took care of business last night against Clay Buchholz as predicted, they will be facing a much tougher righty tonight. The off outing by Chien-Ming Wang and a very suspect Yankee bullpen made last night's game alot closer than it shoud have been. If Mike Mussina's 85mph fastballs aren't blowing batters away, then the New York bullpen who dearly misses Joba Chamberlain and has been extremely overworked might not be able to keep the Bosox hitters at bay. Boston's 20 game winner from last season should be able to tame the Yanks offense.

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PAUL LEINER

20* Over 9.5 Phi/Hou
10* Rays +110
5* Cubs -135

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Mike Neri Sports 

San Diego -160


National Sports Advisors

Mets Over 9 Mets


SportsAction 365

Padres Und 7


Todays Picks

W Sox Over 9


2-Minute Warning

CLEVELAND

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Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections 

$500,000 HOME RUN BASEBALL CRUSHER

Chicago Cubs w/Lilly -125

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Sports Lock

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs -125

The Chicago Cubs are on a roll right now and they will be looking for the sweep this afternoon at Wrigley. Ted Lilly started off the season losing his first two games and we expect a big rebound in this game for him. His opponent Edison Volquez pitched great in his first appearance getting the win and posting a 0.87 ERA. The Cubs bats are starting to come alive putting up 9 runs on Tuesday and 12 runs yesterday. Look for the Cubs to keep things rolling this afternoon in Wrigley.

LOCK = Chicago Cubs -125

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TOUTHOUSE

San Diego Padres -155

Jake Peavy (3-0 , 1.64 ERA), the NL's reigning Cy Young Award winner, looks to continue his top tier performances as he goes for his fourth straight win to start his 2008 campaign this Thursday when the Padres close out a three-game series with the visiting Rockies. After getting buried 10-2 yesterday ,the Padres will be very motivated to get some redemption, and have the edge with their ace on the hill. Note: The Rockies will send Jeff Francis (0-2, 9.53) to the mound in return . Francis is fast becoming notorious for early season struggles, and has continued down that path this season, as was the case in both of his starts. Final notes & Key Trends: Francis went (1-3, 6.61 ERA in five starts) vs the Padres last year. Play on San Diego

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