Thursday Service Plays

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ARMVIN SPORTS

MLB
TAMPA BAY RAYS +105

NHL
CALGARY +182

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Scott Rickenbach

Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

REASON FOR PICK: This is a FREE Star Rated Pick. The detailed analysis for this selection will be posted here by 11 AM ET. However, we get our plays up as early as possible for all you early players and so we post it first without the write-up. This way you can make your play early and then please check back after 11 AM ET for the full details on this match-up. Thanks and best of luck.

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Hot Lock sports

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Under 9.5 -111

Two Righties go at it today in an afternoon game.  Combined, these two are 2 Over and 4 UNDER in 6 starts total in 2008.  Backe is 7-1 to the Under in his L 8 road starts.  The Stros are also 8-1 to the Under following a win. The Phillies have gone Under their last 4 games following a loss and the Under is 7-1 in Myers L 8 starts following a quality start in his last appearance.   The last two meetings, this year went 2-1 and 4-3.  Neither offense has found a consistent groove yet.  I like the Under today for 2 units!

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Nick Parsons

Play ON Minnesota Wild Money Line (-) vs Colorado 

The Wild got pummeled in Game 4 as they lost 5 to 1 at Colorado. However, setting an all-time franchise record for penalty minutes certainly had a lot to do with that! The Wild basically lost their cool and ended up giving the game to the Avs in the form of a Colorado blowout win. Give some credit to the Avalanche for that win but also note that the Wild are going to be much better prepared for this crucial Game 5 match-up at home in Minnesota. The Wild were 25-11-5 at home in the regular season while the Avs won just 17 of their 41 road games this season. Wild goalie Niklas Backstrom finished up the regular season on a phenomenal run at home and the Minnesota netminder was not the only one to blame for the Avs five-goal barrage on Tuesday. Keep in mind that much of that had to do with all the penalties as well as some defensive lapses from a Minnesota defensive corps that has had to make some adjustments due to injuries among the blue liners. After a very poor defensive effort in Game 4, the Wild will bounce back with a very strong effort on home ice in Game 5. Minnesota coach Jacques Lemaire went so far as to call out some players for their poor performances in Game 4 and the Wild players will undoubtedly come up with a strong response on Thursday as a result. Minnesotas power play efficiency at home ranked third in the Western Conference while their penalty kill on home ice ranked fourth in the entire league! Note that while Colorados penalty kill on the road was solid it was their power play away from home that ranked as the worst in the league with a paltry 11.6% conversion rate. The Wild should roll here at home as, despite a poor effort Tuesday, Minnesota knows they still have home ice heading into tonights swing game that is going to affect the momentum the rest of the way! Momentum resides with the Wild after tonights game!

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LT Profits

Washington Capitals @ Philadelphia Flyers Under 5.5

The Washington Capitals and the Philadelphia Flyers have gone Over in two of the first three games of this series, but we expect tonight’s game to closely resemble Game 2, which was won by Philadelphia 2-0.

Game 3 got out of hand early when the Flyers scored three goals in the first period, putting the Capitals in an offensive posture in the early stages. With their playoff lives virtually on the line here, we look for Washington to be more defensive at the outset, knowing they could ill afford to fall behind early with a possible 3-1 series deficit staring them in the face.

It is not as if the Capitals can’t play defense, as they allowed three goals or less in each of their last seven regular season games including allowing two goals or less in five of them, and they were certainly stingy in that 2-0 loss in Game 2. In fact, the Under is surprisingly 45-37 in all Washington games this year, as the presence of Alexander Ovechkin has probably in inflated their totals a bit.

Speaking of Ovechkin, the Flyers have done an amazing job of shutting him down this series, and tonight may be another struggle for him as Flyers defenseman Kimmo Timonen will be playing after leaving Game 3 early with a shoulder injury. Besides shutting down Ovechkin, the Flyers have gotten some nice goaltending from Marty Biron in this series, whose shutout in Game 2 was his sixth of the year.

Thus, we look for both teams to be defensive-minded for at least the first period, and probably longer for the Flyers as they continue to concentrate of stopping Ovechkin. Thus, as long as the Flyers don’t get any cheap early goals, we do not see these teams exceeding five combined goals tonight.

Pick: Capitals, Flyers Under 5.5

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Insider Sports Report

4* Chicago White Sox (Floyd) -105 over Baltimore (Guthrie) Range +115 to -120

3* Minnesota (Bonser) -125 over Tampa Bay (Hammel) Range -110 to -145

3* St. Louis (Lohse) -125 over Milwaukee (Parra) Range -110 to -140

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WILD BILL

Braves -165 (5 units)
Rockies +175 (1 unit)
White Sox +110 (1 unit)
Red Sox -125 (5 units)
Tigers +120 (1 unit)
Royals +150 (1 unit)
Over 9 Royals-Angels (1 unit)

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PAUL LEINER

10* Rays +110

5* Cubs -135

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Larry Ness' 15* Getaway Day Game of the Week (8-1 run since April 7!)
My 15* play is on the StL Cards

Lenny Del Genio's 20* Getaway Day GOM (7-2 MLB Run)
Play on St. Louis

Ben Burns' MLB Getaway Day Total of the Month (EARLY START)
I'm playing on Philadelphia and Houston to finish OVER the number.

Scott Spreitzer's Thurs Night MLB Divisional Game of the Week! (2-0 thus far)
I'm playing the Seattle Mariners on Thursday night.

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Jack Clayton

Mariners


HotLocksports

Houston/Philadelphia u 9.5


Global Handicapping

Red Sox


BuckShotBoys


Toronto -1.5


lasvegassportsadvisors

San Jose


PRIORITY SPORTS INFO

St Louis -125


ARTHUR RALPH COMP

Seattle Mariners


PHILLY CONNECTION

Toronto


Totals4u

Nats/ Mets Over


Scott Spreitzer

Cubs


Cappers Access

Reds
Indians


Razor Sharp Sports

Rockies/ Padres Over


Glen Mcgrew

Mets


Joe Wiz

Braves
Orioles


Huddle Up Sports

Royals


Bob Donahue

Rockies


BeatYourBookie

Milwaukee +1.5


TOTALS 4U

NATIONALS/METS OVER 9 RUNS


RAZOR SHARP

COLORADO/SAN DIEGO OVER


VEGAS STEAMLINE

Texas/Toronto UNDER


TV HOTLINE

DETROIT +120


#1 SPORTS

COLORADO ROCKIES + 180


MIKE WYNN

NY Mets  -160


PLATINUM PLAYS

WASHINGTON CAPITALS + 115


NEVEADA SHARPSHOOTER

FLORIDA +150


DR VEGAS

Angels -150


BIG TIME SPORTS

RAYS/TWINS OVER 9


SCOUT

Kansas City  +140


DARK HORSE

Cincinnati +110


MIGHTY QUINN

Brewers


Frank Patron

Chicago Cubs -130


Paul Leiner

5* Cubs -135


TRACE ADAMS

Texas-Toronto Under


HeadWaiter Sports

SAN DIEGO PADRES   -1.5


Sharp Sports Advisors

SEATTLE MARINERS


Big Dons World Class Handicapping

Chicago White Sox -101


Platinum Sports Investing Club

San Diego Padres -167


Silvas Sports

Houston Astros +1.5


LT's Lock

INDIANS -125


Baseball Totals

Texas/Toronto Over 9


Global Handicapping

Boston

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Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -130
(listing Lilly)

After starting the season 0-2 with an ERA near 10, we know that Lilly is due for a solid outing today at home against a Reds team that is struggling.  The Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 overall, 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a left-handed starter, and 2-8 in their last 10 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 home games, 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series, 13-3 in their last 16 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game, 20-6 in their last 26 vs. National League Central, and 23-8 in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Pound the Cubbies!

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Wunderdog

Game: Houston at Philadelphia
Pick: Houston +159

It has been a very suspect start of the '08 season for Brett Myers. He has been touched up for five HRs in just 18 innings of work, and his ERA is a stout five. Myers has had difficulty with his role as starter, then reliever, then starter again. His last eight starts have lead to the Phillies going 1-7, and his ERA is a ridiculous 6.02. He has also allowed 11 HRs in just 46 innings. Most forget that Brandon Backe has pitched to an ERA in the 3's over all his appearances the last three years. Going back to last September he has allowed an average of two runs over his last eight starts. Like the value in these odds and will back the Stro's here.

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USA Sports Consulting

Boston (J.Beckett) -122


Anthony Russo

New York Yankees +115

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Winners Edge

MLB

Atlanta Braves RL -1.5 Even , 2 Units

Houston Astros RL +1.5 -135, 2 Units

NY Yankees +115 , 2 Units

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Donald Tran

Boston at New York Under 9


Jennifer Barry

Texas at Toronto Under 9


Chad Jordan

Cleveland Indians -120


Money Lock Of The Day

Junior's Pick
Cubs -135

Digger's Pick
Cardinals -107


Will Sykes

2* Tampa Bay Rays +120

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SportsKingz

MLB

ST. LOUIS -115       

CLEVELAND -130       

L.A. ANGELS -175

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SPORTS ADVISORS

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Detroit (5-10) at Cleveland (5-10)

Two struggling teams that were thought to contend for the A.L. Central crown conclude their brief two-game series at Progressive Field, with the Indians’ Fausto Carmona (1-1, 2.20) set to oppose Tigers ace Justin Verlander (0-2, 6.52).

Detroit pounded out a 13-2 victory on Wednesday for its third consecutive victory after starting the season 2-10. With the victory, the Tigers improved to 3-4 on the road this year and snapped a five-game losing skid to the Indians dating to 2007. Meanwhile, Cleveland has lost three in a row and six out of eight, going 1-5 during its current homestand. The two clubs share last place in the A.L. Central.

The Indians are 10-3 in Carmona’s last 13 starts, but just 1-2 this year. That includes Saturday’s ugly 7-3 home loss to the A’s, when the right-hander gave up three runs on two hits and eight walks, lasting just 3 1/3 innings. Prior to that contest, Cleveland had won eight straight Carmona starts at home, including a 7-2 victory over the White Sox on April 2 when Carmona gave up just a run on four hits and four walks in seven innings en route to a 7-2 win.

Carmona is 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA in eight appearances (five starts) against the Tigers over the past two seasons. Last year, he faced Detroit at home twice, giving up five runs in six innings and getting a no-decision in a 12-11 Indians win and allowing two runs (one earned) in eight innings in a 5-2 victory.

Verlander has gotten off to a very rough start, giving up 19 runs (15 earned) over three outings spanning 19 1/3 innings. On Saturday at Chicago, he went 7 2/3 innings and got charged for six runs on four hits and four walks in a 7-0 loss. Last year, the Tigers ace went 8-3 with a 3.57 ERA in 15 road starts, but he got hammered in two outings in Cleveland, going 0-2 with an 11.81 ERA, as he allowed seven runs in each start, lasting a combined 10 2/3 innings.

Going back to 2006, the Tigers are 1-5 in Verlander’s last six starts against the Tribe. For his career, the veteran right-hander is 3-5 with a 6.84 ERA in nine starts versus his division rival

The over is 6-0 in Verlander’s last six starts against Cleveland and 5-0 in Carmona’s last five starts overall. However, the under is 3-1-1 in Carmona’s five starts.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


Boston (9-7) at N.Y. Yankees (9-7)

Red Sox ace Josh Beckett (1-1, 6.35) opposes the Yankees’ Mike Mussina (1-2, 4.15) for the second time in five days as these bitter rivals conclude their two-game set at Yankee Stadium.

Beckett got the best of Mussina in Saturday’s 4-3 victory at Fenway Park, which jump-started Boston’s four-game winning streak that ended with Wednesday’s 15-9 loss in New York. Meanwhile, the Yankees have won three in a row for the first time this season, and they’re on a 46-20 roll at home (5-3 this year).

These teams have split their four meetings this season, but New York is still 10-4 in the last 14 battles overall, including 5-0 in the Bronx.

Beckett followed up a rough season debut at Toronto (five runs in 4 2/3 innings) with a quality effort against New York on Saturday, giving up three runs on five hits and one walk in 6 2/3 innings. Including that contest, the Red Sox are 26-10 in Beckett’s last 36 starts overall. Also, Beckett is now 5-3 despite a beefy 6.24 ERA in nine career starts against the Yanks, including 2-2 with a 6.86 ERA over four starts in New York.

Although he struggled at Toronto 10 days ago, Beckett was dynamite on the road last year, going 11-2 with a 2.18 ERA. Boston has won 20 of his last 28 outings as a visitor.

Mussina was charged with four runs on eight hits over 5 2/3 innings in getting tagged with Saturday’s loss at Fenway. In two home starts this year, he is 1-1 with a 3.09 ERA, beating Tampa Bay 6-1 while losing to Toronto 5-2.

The Yankees are 0-4 in Mussina’s last four starts against Boston going back to 2006, with Mussina registering a 6.94 ERA during this stretch. For his career, the right-hander is 19-16 with a 3.70 ERA in 53 outings against the BoSox.

The under is 3-1 in Mussina’s last four outings versus Boston and 3-0 in his three starts this year. However, the over is 6-3 in Beckett’s last nine starts against the Yankees (2-2 at Yankee Stadium) and 6-2 in Mussina’s last eight at home.

Even though Wednesday’s game flew over the posted total, the under is still 12-4 in Yankee games this year, including 6-2 in the Bronx. Also, the under is 6-4 in the last 10 series meetings (2-2 this year) and 5-2 in the last seven clashes at Yankee Stadium.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

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Rocky Atkinson

Colorado @ San Diego 
Play On:  1* San Diego -160

San Diego is 5-1 after a loss this year.  Colorado is scoring only 4 runs per game overall this year, 4.1 runs per game on the road this year and 3.8 runs per game against right handed starters this season.  Francis is 0-2 with a 9.53 ERA overall this year and 0-1 with a 12.60 ERA on the road this year.  Peavy is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA overall this year and 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA at home this season.  Francis is 5-10 with a 5.83 ERA overall vs San Diego since 1997.  We'll recommend a small play on San Diego tonight!

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