Wednesday Service Plays
Re: Wednesday Service Plays
Wonderful Wednesday Total-MLB (3-1 TY)
Playing very selectively, Larry was 28-13 with his MLB totals during MLB '07. He's found a few more opportunities in the early going of '08 but he's also been just as successful, winning THREE of his four totals so far. Looking for a game which will 'fly' over Then look no further than Larry's Wonderful Wednesday Total.
Re: Wednesday Service Plays
Toronto Raptors vs. Chicago Bulls
The Raptors head to the United Center to take on the Chicago Bulls. The Raptors currently the #6 seed in the Eastern conference playoffs look to secure that seed with a victory in Chicago. How important is the #6 seed, dropping to the 7th seed would seal a date with Detroit instead of Orlando. The Bulls on the other hand will simply be looking to end a miserable season on a positive note. The Bulls have played far below expectations all season long. Chicago has not covered well at home going 16-24 against the spread. The raptors however are a respectable 22-18 ATS away. In their last 2 games against the Bulls the Raptors won by 15 at home and 30 the last time they visited the United Center, covering easily in both games. Toronto has won 3 of their last 4 only faltering at Detroit. Even though the Bulls torched the Bucks for 151 points in their last game don’t look for a repeat performance. The stats don’t lie and the Bulls are the leagues worst shooting team at a dismal 43.5%. In a match-up like this taking the points is your best bet. Take Toronto to cover and don’t be surprised if they walk away with a win.
Lock = Toronto Raptors +7
Re: Wednesday Service Plays
NOTE: I know this amount of plays seems excessive, but we have a very, very similar setup to Saturday when I posted five sides and six totals and went 10-1. The same umpires that were working those games, for the most part, are back in rotation and are behind the plate tonight. Add that with the setups from the Tuesday series openers/Game 2's and these plays are just falling into place with some great odds. Already looking ahead to Thursday I see no more than 3-4 plays on the board, so this is our last big day of the week. And, likely, this will be the last time this month that I release all of the plays that meet my criteria. Here's to hoping for a big Hump Day with results similar to Saturday's.
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 7.5 Arizona at San Francisco
1.5-Unit Play. Take #901 Arizona (-165) over San Francisco
The ‘over’ is 10-3-1 in Mark Wegner’s last 14 games behind home plate and 38-28 (58 percent) since the start of 2006. He has seen an average of 27 baserunners per game in his three behind the dish, and I don’t think Barry Zito’s curveball is going to be called a strike too often. Zito has been getting knocked around and is terrible in April (13-21 in his career) and average during the day. The Diamondbacks are crushing left-handed pitching, averaging over seven runs per game against six southpaws this year. Webb’s ERA is a little higher than his average in day games and against San Fran. I think if the Giants can just scratch out two runs here we should be good. Brandon Webb is 14-3 in April. He is an automatic play.
5.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Atlanta at Florida
1-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (-140) over Florida
Note: This is our Total of the Month.
There was a little bad blood last night between these two teams. I think both lineups are going to come to the park focused today and I think this one is going WAY over the total. Brian O’Nora is an ‘over’ ump and has seen an average of 10 runs, seven walks, and 19 hits in his three games behind home plate. The ‘over’ is 7-3 in Atlanta’s last 10 against a southpaw (Mark Hendrickson isn’t exactly lights out) and is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. Also, the ‘over’ is 51-22-5 in Florida’s last 78 divisional games. That’s a phenomenal trends. And with these lineups, bullpens, umps and this number I think we’re in a good spot. The Braves are down a closer (Soriano) and their best setup man (Moylan) from an already awful pen. If Hudson can't go seven - and if he does, we're going to win our side pretty handily - then the Braves bullpen is going to give up at least four runs on its own.
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.0 Pittsburgh at Los Angeles (10 p.m., Wednesday, April 16)
Little known fact: Brad Penny is an ‘over’ pitcher. Yeah. The guy can hurl, but his games have a penchant for sailing the total. The ‘over’ is 26-10 in his last 36 home starts and 24-10 with him as a home favorite. The ‘over’ is also a ridiculous 23-4 in the last 27 meetings between these two clubs. Again: 23-4. The Pirates can swing the bat this year. The over is 8-2 in their last ten and 9-3-1 in their last 13 on the road. Mix in the fact that Paul Maholm stinks and that the Dodgers wear out left-handed pitching and I think we’re in good shape here. Oh yeah, and we have Jim Reynolds behind the dish. The ‘over’ is 23-13 in his last 36 and an absurd 10-2 in his last 12. I’m looking for a tight zone and two big innings to send us over.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Washington at New York Mets
1-Unit Play. Take Washington (+180) over New York Mets
All three of Mike Winters’ games have sailed the total this year. He’s seen an average of over 11 runs per game while issuing eight walks and 20 hits per outing. That tight strike zone could get exploited by two tough lineups today. Washington is going to break out soon, and when guys like Delgado and Wright are as locked in as they are the Mets can put up runs in a hurry. Heck, the Mets could cover this one on their own if they get to Matt Chico. The ‘over’ is 17-5-1 in New York’s last 23 divisional games and 9-2-1 in their last 12 against a left-handed starter. The ‘over’ is also 6-2 in Matt Chico’s last eight starts overall. If John Maine isn’t getting that corner strike his ball becomes awful hittable awful quick. If it's a wild, high-scoring games that gives the Nats a much better chance to win. And as long as New York is sub-.500 they can't be laying this type of number.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Houston (+105) over Philadelphia
I know Roy Oswalt has been terrible, but I will take him with plus-money. The Astros were the better team yesterday before a fluke collapse. They get us back that money and then some.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Toronto (-135) over Texas
Jesse Litsch is really developing into a fine young pitcher. The Rangers are 1-10 in their last 11 on turf and I think very soon we're going to see the Blue Jays get very hot. The swept the Rangers in Texas, and the Rangers aren't a great road team, so I see a similar beatdown coming.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (+110) over Tampa Bay
James Shields is 7-17 on the road and the Rays are 6-20 in their last 26 trips to Minnesota. Twins is playing great - with the exception of awful, dreadful, pathetic eighth innings the last two nights. Tampa can't put that kind of late pressure on with their lineup though, and I think we're getting great odds here.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Seattle (+100) over Oakland
King Felix has been sensational to this point in the season and he always seems to throw exceptionally well against the A's. Oakland has been playing great, but I really am waiting for them to hit a wall playing in their fourth city in eight days. Again, these odds are off and just too good to overlook.
Re: Wednesday Service Plays
Lenny Del Genio
Lenny Del Genio's MLB Triple Play (75% TY!)
Play on Toronto at 7:05 ET. Toronto just killed lefties at the Rogers Centre last year (18-5), but are off to a bit of a stunning 0-2 start vs. southpaws this year averaging 2.6 runs per game. That should change tonight against the Rangers' Kason Gabbard, who will be making his first ever start against the Blue Jays. He missed out on last weekend's Blue Jays sweep back in Arlington, where Texas was outscored 17-10 in the three-game set. Toronto is right near the top of the AL in batting average (.282) and hit .331 with 30 runs scored over a five-game road swing that saw the them go 4-1. They come in off their best performance yet; an 11-run, 16-hit performance against Baltimore on Tuesday. The Jays hit .321 against Texas pitching last weekend when they recorded their first road sweep of the Rangers since 1985. Texas has had no luck North of the Border, where they've lost six straight for the first time since '94. Losers of five straight, the Rangers are off to their worst start since 2002. Take Toronto.
Play on St. Louis at 8:15 ET. The Brewers a) aren't a very good road team (-$1745 last year) and b) aren't very good against the Cards (lost eight of 10 against them). That was apparent Tuesday night when St. Louis clobbered them, 6-1. Milwaukee was held to just three hits and tonight faces the tough Adam Wainwright, who looked sharp in his lone home outing this year (2 ER in 8 innings of work). Last night's win was the Cards' sixth straight win at home. NL Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun may return tonight for Milwaukee, but he is currently mired in a 3 for 25 slump, so that really doesn't help. Take St.Louis.
Play on Seattle at 10:05 ET. Oakland seems to have cooled off a bit (lost two of three) so this looks like a great spot to play against them considering how atrocious they were last year vs right-handed starters (-$1875). M's starter Felix Hernandez didn't allow a single earned run in his first 15 innings of work this season (two no-decisions!) before a sub-par performance (four runs allowed) last time out vs. the Angels, a game which he won! A's hitters did not show up in either of starter Joe Blanton's two home starts this season, giving him two whole runs. Hernandez went 4-0 against the Athletics last year and has a career ERA of 2.29 against them. Take Seattle.
Re: Wednesday Service Plays
Arizona D-backs (M: -169.0) 1
Atlanta Braves (M: -139.0) 5
Tampa Bay Rays (M: -119.0) 1
Colorado Rockies (M: 124.0) 1
Laa Angels (M: -150.0) 2
Seattle Mariners (M: -104.0) 5
Detroit Tigers Over 10.0 1
Texas Rangers Under 9.5 1
Boston Red Sox Under 8.5 5
Chicago White Sox Over 9.5 1
Cincinnati Reds Over 11.5 1
Milwaukee Brewers Under 8.5 1
Colorado Rockies Over 8.5 1
Memphis Grizzlies (S: 15.5) 3
San Antonio Spurs (S: -4.5) 5
Philadelphia 76ers Over 202.0 5
Washington Wizards Over 204.0 3
Portland Trail Blaze Over 209.5 1
Seattle Supersonics Over 231.5 2
Re: Wednesday Service Plays
Spurs -4 (POD)
The Spurs didn't even top 70 points against this Jazz team on the road as they were brutally embarassed by this team on media outlets. Now, they get to get some revenge at home, where they have covered this ballgame against the Jazz the last 5 times. Yes, each time the Spurs have played the Jazz over the last 5 times, they have won and covered the spread mostly winning by double-digits. Typically I write in great detail on my POD and not as much on the other plays, but let me be very frank and straight to the point here, I will gladly take teh defending champs who were embarassed by about 20 points on the road, to their playoff nemesis to pound the living snot out of them at home in revenge. This is a great tune up game and Coach Pop will undoubtedly remind them of that loss in Utah. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS against the Jazz at home in their last 5 ballgames (includes playoff games from last year).
Clippers +8 (1st half Only)
I like the Clippers here for several reasons and took them against the Hornets yesterday. Despite catching 16 and the fact they were leading outright by 2 at the half, they collapsed. Well, fair enough. I will take them yet again today except this time to cover the first half. After all, this team is playing in its finally game of this season with no playoffs in site, this is their playoff game, they got drilled by 20+ points to this team, Elton Brand is back for this ballclub, sure they lack bench, but they do have some solid starters that will keep them in pace just like they did against the Hornets before the legs started to give way. Look for the Clippers to hang tough yet fall short late, but more importantly cover the first half just like they did against the Hornets last night, infact, they might even lead outright at the end of the first half against the Rockets.
I understand the line is big, I also understand that Lebron Games will likely sit out this game as Mike James is not going to take a chance on his star player getting injured. Tack on the fact the Baby Pistons are on a great cover streak, the Pistons simply hate the Cavs and want to drill them each time they play them after losing in the Eastern Conference Finals last year, look for the baby Pistons to run up the score here. Bottom line, there has been ridiculous line movement in favor of the Pistons despite 70%+ on the Cavs. Look for a late double-digit Pistons win here. The Cavs are 0-4 ATS as home underdogs of late and the Pistons are 5-1 ATS as favorites of late.
Don't be overly shocked at this homer pick today as considering the Mavs lost to this team by 12 points last time out, not to mention the fact that the Mavs have lost back to back games including a gut wrenching embarassing loss to this Mark Cuban team on the road at Seattle which they could have used for seeding, I expect this Mavs team to be fired up at home, coming off a loss, playing the 2nd leading team in the West, in a revenge game here as they garner some confidence heading into the playoffs against this team team and others. Look for a playoff type atmosphere game here, although the Hornets will beat this team at the end of the day meaning in the playoffs, which Bryan Scott knows this and will rest his players early on. I look for the Mavs to win this game by double-digits today as the Hornets are 1-4 ATS as underdogs and the favorite is 6-2 ATS - Hornets catching +7.5! Too good to be true right! It is. Mavs by dd's.
Minny lost by 3 points to Milwaukee in a game that they truly should have won and they have been playing great basketball lately as I have been reporting. Minny remember won at Orlando, won at Memphis, lost to the baby Pistons on the road and now they come back home to close out the year with quite possibly 22 wins. Remember, this is the same team that beat the Jazz at home and who I took on the ML in that game at +240. I look for the Twolves to get that sour taste of a loss yesterday out and I think the Bucks, who want this season to be over desperately as they have been cossistently getting blown out by everybody repeats today as well. Remember, the Bucks gave up 150 points in offense yesterday. The Bucks have beat these Twolves twice already this year so this is a huge revenge game to close out the year for the Twolves. The Twolves are 13-4 ATS following a straight up loss of over 10 points.
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