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Saturday Service Plays
Re: Saturday Service Plays
OVER 9 (+110) ATL/WASH (2*)...It appears that all of Saturday's Wagers will be on the late afternoon and Nigth Match-Ups in all sports...although we do have 1 Top Total that goes off at the Top of the Hour...it was not Included in the Daily Package due to the fact it is an early start and we are going to be UPDATING the Package after it begins, in which case including it would not allow us to do so...Subscribers already had it Uploaded into the System...lets see if we can get the day rolling along with a nice 2* Winner early because the Later Plays are really coming together nicely...Best of Luck, VR...
Re: Saturday Service Plays
NBA 70% Super Situations (Basketball Record 38-24 ATS +1160 Units)
NBA Saturday: Play On NBA home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a game involving two teams that allow 43.5-45.5% after 42+ games, with a team that averages <=14.5 turnovers per game against a team that forces only <=14.5 turnovers per game. 39-11 ATS since 1996 78.0%
PLAY: PORTLAND (+)
MLB 70% Super Situations
Our MLB 70% Super Situations could be either sides and/or totals from the MLB Card for that particular day.
MLB Saturday: Play Under MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 with an AL team with a batting AVG <=.265 against a team with a bullpen ERA <=3.33 with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better on the season 68-27 Under the last 5 seasons (71.6%)
PLAY: Baltimore / Tampa Bay UNDER 9 (-110)
Gator's NBA "ANGLE" Game of the Day
NBA Saturday: Play ON an NBA home favorite of less than 11 points off a road game with a FG average less than 30% versus an opponent with less than 2 days rest. 11-0 ATS since 1996 and has an average cover of 14.6 points per game.
PLAY: WASHINGTON WIZARDS -3
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Game: Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies Reason: I'm laying the price with PHILADELPHIA. With the possibility that Jimmy Rollins will miss another game, the line has dropped overnight and has now become reasonable enough for me to pull the trigger. Regardless of who is in the lineup, Hamels vs. Lilly gives the Phillies a significant advantage on the mound. Hamels is one of the best young pitchers in the game. He's been dominant thus far, recording a 1.20 ERA. Hamels also had his way with the Cubs last season, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 15 innings. One of those victories, a 4-1 win for the Phillies, came against Lilly. Unlike Hamels, Lilly is a mediocre pitcher who appears to be on the downside of his career. He's been horrid thus far, recording a 9.72 ERA in two starts. Last time out, in his lone road start, he failed to pitch four innings, allowing five earned runs. That's a 12.26 ERA and 2.452 WHIP! Including the losses to Hamels last season, the Cubs are a money-burning 42-55 (-22.2) their last 97 games against left-handed starters. Look for them to struggle vs. Hamels again today, falling to 4-10 at Citizens Bank Park since it opened for the 2004 season. *Personal Favorite.
Game: St Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants Reason: I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. Public perception that the Cardinals are better than they really are combined with an over-reaction to the most recent start by each of these pitchers, has given us excellent value with the Giants this afternoon. I played against Wellemeyer in his last start, in part because he was facing a pitcher (Wandy Rodriguez) who I expected would have a big game and who would "outlast" Wellemyer. Once again, Wellemeyer will be matched up against a very tough opposing starter, in Matt Cain. Wellemeyer actually pitched well last time out. However, at the time, I noted that he had never pitched past six innings in his career, averaging just 4.5 innings. So, what happened? Wellemeyer cruised through the first six innings. However, the minute he got into the unfamiliar territory of the seventh inning, he was greeted with back to back home runs. To Wellemeyer's credit, he did manage to finish the inning. All the same, the Astros would go on to win the game by a score of 5-3. Cain wasn't at his best last time out, losing vs. San Diego. He had a 3.48 ERA in 17 starts here last season though, so I'm willing to cut him some slack, particularly give that he went 5 2/3 shutout innings in his first start (vs. the Dodgers) while allowing only three hits. Unlike Wellemeyer, Cain is no stranger to pitching into the late innings. In fact, he tossed a complete game here last April, earning a 2-1 victory over Arizona. He also closed out last season by pitching seven or more innings in five of his final seven home starts, going six complete in the other two. Note that he didn't allow more than three earned runs in any of those games, allowing just eight earned runs in his final 40 innings (1.80 ERA) pitched here. Both Wellemeyer's starts come under the lights, making this his first afternoon start of the season. Therefore, its worth noting that he had a 5.89 ERA when pitching during the afternoon last season. Opposing hitters batted a mere .231 against him at night but a whopping .317 in the daytime. Conversely, Cain held opposing hitters to a .231 average in his 2007 daytime starts, recording a solid 3.52 ERA. Look for Cain to outduel Wellemeyer, as the Giants bounce back with a victory. *Annihilator
Game: Florida Marlins vs. Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston Astros Reason: I'm laying the price with HOUSTON. Sitting alone on top of the NL East, the Marlins are obviously thrilled with the start to their season. After completing their first 3-game road sweep of the Nationals, the Marlins grabbed yesterday's series opener. The offense has been scoring a lot of runs and they've been getting relatively solid pitching from the likes of Hendrickson and Olsen. However, one starter who has NOT been getting the job done is Andrew Miller. Miller is still young and he's got plenty of potential. However, he has not pitched well in his first two starts, getting ripped for 16 hits and 11 earned runs in just 7 2/3 innings. That gives him a 12.92 ERA and 2.480 WHIP. While its not wise to over-react to one poor start, back to back bad ones are often cause for concern. A closer look reveals that Miller hasn't had his usual velocity on the pitches with manager Fredi Gonzalez saying that he has been losing some velocity in an effort to throw more strikes. In fact, after throwing in the low to mid-90s in the spring, he reportedly hasn't cracked 90 mph yet in the regular season. Backe gets the call for the home team and unlike his opponent, he's been solid. In his first start, he allowed two runs in five complete innings and his second start he again allowed just two runs, this time going six complete innings. Note that he had 7Ks in those six innings. Now Backe makes his first start at home, where he was 2-0 with a 3.71 ERA in limited innings last season, allowing opposing hitters to bat a mere .210. Despite yesterday's loss, the Astros are still a healthy 6-2 the last eight times they were a host in this series. Behind another solid effort from Backe, look for them to cool off the Marlins here, evening up the series at one. *Pitching Mismatch GOW
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Game: Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks Reason: I'm taking the points with ATLANTA. The Hawks have several factors in their favor this evening. For starters, they're playing at home and they're playing with "double-revenge." Additionally, this game means significantly more to them than it does to the Celtics. While Boston has already locked up first place, the Hawks are still trying to lock up the eighth spot. Naturally, that will mean that these teams would face each other in the first round, even further incentive (not that they need any!) for the Hawks to want to prove they can hold their own. Both teams played and won convincingly last night. However, Boston's scheduling situation is much worse. That's because the Celtics are now playing their fourth game in the past five days, all four of which came in different cities, one of which went to overtime. Even though the starters have been getting quite alot of rest, that's still a great deal of traveling and playing in a short time. On the other hand, prior to last night's game, Altanta had the previous two days off and this will be just the Hawk's third game this week. Having experienced it first hand, Doc Rivers is a coach who is aware of the dangers of playing star players in meaningless games and the last thing he wants to do is see one of his big guns go down. Rivers tells the following story from his own NBA career: "I have this scar on my (right) thumb to show for it. While I was with the Knicks we had already clinched (a spot in the playoffs), but because the league didn't want you holding players out near the end of the season, we all had to play the next game against the Bulls. So in the second (period), I ripped a tendon in my thumb and that was it." While yesterday's win came on the road, the Hawks have only won six of seven and 14 of their last 20 here in Atlanta. Look for them to be the hungrier team this evening, scoring the minor upset and helping to ensure they'll be traveling to Boston in the near future. *Eastern Conf. GOY
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Game: Boston Bruins vs. Montreal Canadiens
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Montreal and Boston to finish UNDER the total. The opening game saw the Canadiens jump on Boston goalie Tim Thomas, scoring two quick ones. Boston added one shortly afterwards. Things really settled down after that though as the teams combined for only two more goals over the final 50+ minutes. I highly doubt that we'll see three goals in the opening 10 minutes again this evening and expect things to more closely resemble the second and third periods from Thursday's game. Price should continue to be dominant in goal for the Canadiens and Thomas is much better than he showed in the opener. Depending on when and where one played, that game either resulted in an 'under' or a 'push,' as some books had five while others had 5.5. Even counting it as a 'push,' the Canadiens have seen the UNDER go 3-0-1 their last four games, allowing a mere three goals during that span. Meanwhile, the Bruins have seen the UNDER go 4-0-2 their last six games, with those contests averaging less than four combined goals. For the season, the Bruins have seen the UNDER go 21-8-3 when facing a team with a winning record. They've also seen the UNDER go 4-1-2 the last seven times they played a road game with an over/under line of five or less. Look for another low-scoring affair with the UNDER improving to 19-7-1 when the Bruins have played on a Saturday night.
Game: Dallas Stars vs. Anaheim Ducks
Prediction: Anaheim Ducks Reason: I'm laying the price with ANAHEIM. I would very rarely lay such a big number in the regular season. However, the playoffs are a different matter and Anaheim is no ordinary team. The Ducks came out flat in their opener. This is a very good team though and I'm willing to cut the defending champs some slack. While this isn't quite a 'must win' game, its very close to one, as no team likes its chances after dropping the first two at home. Playing such a critical game, in front of the home fans, I expect a massive effort here. The Ducks are 6-3 the last nine times they were trailing in a playoff series, going an impressive 67-43 (+11.1) when playing with 'revenge' during that stretch. Look for them to bounce back like champs and improve to 33-17 the last 50 times they played a home game with an over/under line of five or less.