Saturday Service Plays
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Red Dog Sports
5-0 in NCAA tourney. 3-0 in UNC games.
UNC/Kansas over 74.5
As I write this on Friday night, 74.5 is available at Pinnacle and the line is 75 or 75.5 at most of the other books. With a game total of 160 they are expecting about 75 in the first half and 85 in the second half.
Kansas has played some low scoring games recently vs. Davidson, Villanova and UNLV but this matchup reminds me of games when the Jayhawks played Texas. The halftime scores of those games were 46-45 (91 total) and 42-38 (80 total). Also, when Kansas played another fast paced non-conference team it was 40-40 at half vs. Arizona.
UNC and Kansas have been off for close to a week and should have fresh legs. UNC is one of the highest scoring teams in the country and with Lawson they can score quickly. Hansbrough should get to the line and Green and Ellington can make 3's. Kansas has plenty of scorers and even Sasha Kaun has been scoring inside.
This game features Roy Williams vs. his old team and this could lead to some nerves at first but I expect plenty of points early and the jitters to occur in the second half. This is when we could get a slower pace.
However, I expect a fast game in the first 20 minutes. UNC is one of the best rebounding teams and that could lead to quick points on fast breaks.
I think we see a score in the 42-38 range at half. My guess is 80 points at half.
UNC/Kansas over 74.5 (-127) (1st half)
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Play the Padres -130 for 2 units
I will back Jake Peavy almost every time when he lays less than 150. What we must remember is that the Pads also have one of, if not the best bullpen in the league, so blowing a great Peavy outing is very unlikely. We also have to remember that Peavy is a work horse, and has no problem pitching a complete game if he has to. The Dodgers know how tough Peavy can be. Peavy was a perfect 5-0 last year vs LA, as he pitched in 34 innings in those 5 games with LA scoring a total of only 12 runs. In fact, the Pads are 10-1 in Peavy's last 11 starts vs LA....WOW! The Pads also play very well at home vs LA as they have taken 6 of the last 9 meetings at Petco, including 2 wins with Peavy. Now I have nothing but good things to say about Dodgers starter Brad Penny as well. However if there is one thing this guy cant do, its beating the Pads. Penny is a horrible 3-6 in his career vs SD with a very high 5.61 ERA. Peavy by the way is 9-1 all time vs LA with an ERA of oh only 2.30. NOT BAD! I like SD here in a low scoring game. Pads 4-2
Play UNC -3 for 3 units
CAN NOT stress enough that Carolina without a doubt is the best team BY FAR in this Country. They were built to win THIS National Championship. Everyone talks about Kansas having the motivation to knock off Roy Williams, but how about Roy Williams wanting to knock off Kansas? Remember this is a guy that waited so long to win a _title_, and you can bet he wants another one just as bad. There is NO ONE, not even the athletes that Kansas has, that can match up down low with Hansborro, or outside with Ellington, and Lawson. Carolina should be able to run up and down the court on these guys. I know Kansas plays great Defense, but they have not seen an offense like this one all season long. In fact, this is the first time all season that KU is the Under-dog. I do not like them in this role, and I can easily see them being intimidated i Carolina gets off to the hot start that I anticipate they will. I always love Carolina in this spot of giving less than 5 points. Under Roy Williams, Carolina is 17-10 ATS when laying less than 5 points. Sit back and watch the Heels go for 80+ in this one cruising to an 86-72 win.
Play UCLA +2 for 1.5 units
Love the matchup here for UCLA. We all know this is probably the best defense in the country. I expect them to keep the Memphis guards outside and force the Tigers into long outside shots. The Bruins own the 8th best scoring defense in the country, and have allowed 70 points in only 3 of their last 19 games. I simply do not feel as if Memphis is fundamentally ready for this matchup. Just look at last season when UCLA held the Tigers to only 45 points. Memphis shot a HORRIBLE 17 of 54 from the field. UCLA did the same thing in that game that I expect them to do here. They will force Memphis into taking ridiculous shots. In the Tournament game last year, the Tigers shot only 2 of 17 from 3 point land. And of corse in a tight game, I expect the Tigers to crumble at the FREE THROW LINE. All in all I think UCLA has a lot more to play for as this team is starving for another National Championship. UCLA wins this one 71-63
Re: Saturday Service Plays
North Carolina / Kansas Over 159 3* BEST BET of the DAY
First off, I want to let you know that the most difficult part of today's decision making process wasn't the plays, because we had worked on them all week and were only waiting for some final Confirmations that we had expected would go as planned...but the problem has been for the past 30min...how to best divide the Units up so that not only are we in the best position to Profit, but that when we do...we are able to extract the most for our efforts...and although I know that many of you would have liked to see a side wager as the 3*...when you check out the Teaser Plays also, you will understand why we broke it down like we have and realize that through theTeasers, we are able to actually get down more Units on those plays....so lets get to it....
Well I already explained countless times how we come to our conclusion with Totals and I actually did so with the early one I believe...so here I will hust skip the bullshit and get to the Bottom Line...
This game is going to go Over the Total because of the amount of Possessions that both teams are going to have in this game...and if they can even just be near par for the year in terms of FG%, we shouldn't have too much problems getting there...and that is coming from a bettor who always tries to find reasons to back an Under....
The truth is, if this were a regular season game, the number would have been sent out around 164-165 and by the time the Sharps got finished sending out Buy-Orders on the Over immediately, as well as the public getting in line to do the same...we would be looking at something about 10 points higher than what we are getting tonight....and I can verify that because my own numbers brought this one out at 163 and again, I am more of an Under bettor so I tend to lean that way...LVSC had their oddsmakers all over the place for this one and I heard that the number 164 is what was floating around...but of course they need to take public perception into accout because as I've said...they are not trying to come out with a perfect number based on their ratings, but instead, a number that will protect their clients the books from both the betting public, as well as Professional Bettors like myself....
And on a weekend like this, believe me because I have been in the middle of this kind of game..and their main concern is the betting public before the sharps...
I expect both teams to really play loose, especially Kansas who got that pressure off them with the win over Davidson....and what is even more important, is the fact that these 2 teams both like to run, and unlike so many of the games where we had a contrast of styles, in this one, we will see both trying to out-do the other...
The reason the number is so low is because the game is so meaningful and therefore we will see much more 1/2 court plays being set up than if it was during the season...but with that said....I see no reason at all that this one will not fly over...
Finally, not surprising, it appears that the general public has gone the way the oddsmakers had envisioned and are definately leaning towards the Under, while the Sharps went Over 158 as soon as it went up...and I am not seeing any buy-back anywhere...
Lets go ahead and play this one OVER the Total as our 3* BEST BET and look to Improve on our "13-4" BIG BET Record for the Tournament.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
“1 UNIT” NCAA PERCENTAGE LATE NIGHT TOTAL Kansas/North Carolina UNDER 160
I am fully aware that both of these teams can score points at will, but all that has done is inflate tonight’s total by 2 full points. North Carolina and their racehorse attack has averaged nearly 90 points per game, while Kansas has poured in at an 80 points per contest clip. But is must be pointed out that Kansas scored only 59 points in that regional final nailbiter against Davidson. Even though they are not a defensive juggernaut, I habe found out that the main thing North Carolina has worked on in practice this week has been DEFENSE, especially since that unit just allowed Louisville to shoot 52% from thre field in the regional finals. The Jayhawks know that the only way they can keep up with North Carolina this evening is to choke off the Heels fastbreak in transition, so Bill Self’s crew also has put an emphasis in practice on their defense. Of course the big lead up to this evening’s contest has surrounded Roy Williams who spent more than a decade directing a very successful program at Kansas, before exiting for North Carolina. Tonight marks the first-ever Final Four appearance for Bill Self who has the third-most coaching victories dating back to 1999. My database research involving both head coaches indicates that we are in store for a low scoring contest this evening. First of all Roy Williams is 40-23 UNDER/ROAD the past decade when off consecutive double-digit triumphs. Meanwhile Bill Self teams in the long haul have gone a staggering 17-4 UNDER when given at least 5 days to prepare. My research indicates that in this lofty stage of the NCAA Tournament when the posted total is relatively high like tonight, UNDER the spot has won 24 of the past 37 times (near 65%), so I like our percentages this evening
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