Friday Service Plays

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Professional Gamblers Newsletter

PIRATES +106 at Marlins (Morris-Olsen)

We like the differences in bats relative to this moneyline. The Pirates have been at bat for 31 innings and connected for 30 hits; the Marlins have tallied only 20 hits over 27.5 innings. We don't see a big difference in these pitching staffs...Why are the Pirates underdogs?

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Ethan Law

1/2* BOSTON -$105
1/2* BOSTON (-1.5) +$150

NOTE: THIS SELECTION IS BROKEN DOWN INTO TWO (2) 1/2* UNIT PLAYS. ONE ON THE RUN LINE AND ONE ON THE MONEY LINE!

BOS: RHP Tim Wakefield (17-12, 4.76 ERA in '07)

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TOR: RHP Shaun Marcum (12-6, 4.13 ERA in '07)

Well this certainly has been a very interesting trip for the defending national champions the Boston Red Sox who have been put through the travel ringer by the MLB with their simply brutal travel schedule to start the season. Indeed, this will be the third time zone they will have to play in less than two weeks. Their brutal travel schedule started when they left their spring training complex in Fort Myers, Fla., on March 19 and headed to Tokyo for a to game set against Oakland to start the season. A week later, they then had to travel back to the west coast to play two more exhibition games in Los Angeles, where they played three exhibition games at two different ballparks. Then they traveled to the Bay Area for the resumption of regular-season play against the Oakland Athletics. The good news is they had a day off, as they had to fly cross-country to Toronto where they will open a three game series against Toronto tonight. With all that traveling a flat spot could be a concern so some caution is advised. However, their opponent, the Blue Jays are also not in a very easy traveling spot as they just played a night contest and are coming off a very disappointing loss against the Yankees where they have to turn around and hope on a plane (in less the 24 hours time) to play in their home opener. Perhaps even more demoralizing, is the fact that despite outscoring the powerful Yankees 9-8 in the opening series, they still managed two defeats in three tries. Now they turn to their right-hander in Shaun Marcum who the Blue Jays have to still watch closely as he is still coming off-season knee surgery. After a very good start to last season, it should be noted that Marcum did wear down in the second half of the season despite the fact that his record was an impressive 8-4 after the All-star break. For example, his WHIP (walks & hits vs. innings pitched) rose from 1.07 to 1.39 and his strikeout rate dropped from 0.89 to 0.67 strikeout per innings. Moreover, despite showing some overall impressive numbers Marcum was without question at his worst in home/night games last season. For example, on the road last season Marcum had a very impressive (1.02 ERA in day/away games last season and 2.67 ERA in away/night games). However, in home/night games Marcum posted a rather ugly 6.03 ERA where he allowed a whopping 13.3 base runners per nine innings, while his average start was just over 5 innings per game. Thats terrible news when you consider he must now face a Boston lineup that has yet to have an offensive explosion and one that was excelled against right-handers on the road last season where they were an impressive 32-21 +$875 with an offense that averaged 5 runs per game in away/nights games! In stark contrast, Toronto was terrible against right-handed pitchers all year last season as their backers lost -$870 in all settings and one whose offense was particularly anemic in home/night contests where they posted a losing 15-17 mark -$325 with an offensive that averaged a meager 4 runs per game. Thats good news for the Boston knuckleballer who comes into this contest with an impressive historical resume against this Toronto club. Indeed, Wakefield is an impressive 15-10 with a 3.86 ERA in 45 career games (35 starts) against Toronto. More recently, in the 2007 baseball season he held Toronto to just a 3.38 ERA in five starts.

After handicapping this game I game up with a line of Boston -$120, so although we are getting some value from the current number it is nominal, and nevertheless warrants a deeper looking into this contest in addition to what has already been articulated above. For starters, there are two impressive super situations that warrant a play on Boston for tonight. First, is to play on a team (BOSTON) after a win, during the first 12 game of the season if they closed out last season with more then 26 wins in last 40 games. Since 1997 the system has been an impressive 116-54 with +$4860 profit. The second system is to play on any team (BOSTON) who had a very good bullpen last season with an ERA of 3.33 or better, after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs, which has been an impressive 70-31 since 1997 +$3530! Similar to our logic with out big win with Washington +$190 on Wednesday, when we examin the technicals for the posted total we uncover some very interesting trends that also might help to pull us in the right direction. First, we need to make certain that this is a game that does not go over the posted total as my score casting models have Toronto scoring between 3.2 to 3.7 runs per game. That is supported by the technicals here as Boston is 13-2 under the posted total in road games in April games over the last 2 seasons. More importantly, tonights starting pitcher, Tim Wakefeild seems to excel in road games as the Red Sox are an impressive 20-7 under the posted total in road games in which he pitches over the last 3 seasons. Wakefeild is also 16-5 under the posted total on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons; 14-2 Under in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 13-2 Under in road games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons; 16-4 under in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons and a stellar 11-1 UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The combined average score of their opponent in each of those above mentioned situations is 3.6 runs per game! Despite the above mentioned concern about the Boston tough travel schedule, we are put at ease by the fact that the Red Sox are 18-6 +$1240 in road games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons and they are beating their opponents in those contests by an average of 3.4 runs per game! The very fact that Bostons manager Terry Francona (like Ethan Law) excels on Friday nights as manager of Boston, indicated by his 70-38 mark +$2130 cements it!

Verdict: Boston 7, Toronto 2
PLAY 1/2* (1.5%) UNIT ON BOSTON -$105;
PLAY 1/2* (1.5%) UNIT ON BOSTON -1.5 +$150

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MATT FARGO

New Jersey Nets @ Detroit Pistons
PICK: New Jersey Nets

REASON FOR PICK: I was on the Timberwolves big in the last Detroit game as it came out that the Pistons would be resting their starters from here on out. Apparently no one believes this as the public is still all over the Pistons and the line is heavily in favor of New Jersey. Head coach Flip Saunders tipped his whole hand the other night and while he is not saying who will be resting for tonight, rest assured that the bench will be getting a lot of minutes again, similar to the other night.

This could very well be the last stand for the Nets. They trail Atlanta by four games in the Eastern Conference playoff race and with four of their final six games on the road, this is a game they must take advantage of. This game is definitely winnable despite the large number but in our case, a win really matters none. New Jersey is stuck in neutral and if this was any other game during the regular season, there is no way the Nets would be a play. `

Despite the recent slump, New Jersey is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games and while it has struggled against the top teams in the league, it is important once again that this will not be the everyday Pistons team on the floor. Richard Hamilton has not done anything basketball related since Saturday and is questionable against tonight. We likely won’t see him as the Pistons do not want to take any chances. Detroit has won six straight games in this series and that is another reason why we catch a great number.

The Nets fall into a great scoring situation as well. New Jersey has given up 114.5 ppg over its last four games but play on road teams that have allowed 100 or more points in three straight games going up against an opponent where in each of the last three games, both teams have scored 95 points or fewer. This situation is 21-2 ATS (91.3 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential actually favoring the road team by +3.5 ppg. This is a must win so we will see the best effort New Jersey has. Play New Jersey Nets 1 Unit

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BRYAN LEONARD

New Jersey Nets @ Detroit Pistons
PICK: New Jersey Nets

The Pistons have the second seed in the east locked up and coach Flip Saunders has decided to take the time to rest his veterans. He did so against Minnesota earlier in the week with great success as the bench players rallied for a victory. Now playing the fading Nets who are 4 games out of the playoffs with 7 to go is another great time to see how his reserves fare. The Pistons coach stated earlier in the week "But what we decided was, we didn't want to shut guys down the last three games of the regular season" . "The fortunate thing for us is, with eight or nine games left, we have lots of rest time and lots of practice time. For the main guys, the practice time might be as valuable as what they would get out of these game situations." "We're anxious to see how the young guys do," Saunders said. "Our bench guys have gotten enough minutes now where we are pretty comfortable with them being the main guys. They are going to be thrust into a situation now where they have to play as main guys and not role players. It's a little bit different, but because of the amount of minutes they've played and how we've used them, I think they are prepared to handle it." Even if the Pistons decide to play their starters tonight it will be for limited minutes.

New Jersey despite being a long shot for the playoffs is not about to concede anything. "Until we get eliminated, you have to stay optimistic," said forward Richard Jefferson. "You keep have to fighting hard, you can't get down. "You have to stay optimistic until you get eliminated. Then when you get eliminated, then it's 'oh well, we gave it a good try.' We still believe that crazy things can happen." With their backs to the wall let's look for an all out effort from New Jersey.

PLAY NEW JERSEY

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Ted Sevransky

New York Knicks @ New Orleans Hornets
PICK: New Orleans Hornets

REASON FOR PICK: The only team that the Knicks have beaten since the beginning of March is the lowly Miami Heat (twice), and even in those rare victories, the Knicks failed to cover the spread either time. In fact, the Knicks have only covered the spread four times in their last 17 games, a team that is clearly just playing out the string of another long, dismal season. The Knicks have been particularly bad on the road facing an opponent with a winning record, including losses by 26 at Orlando and by 29 at Dallas.

When New Orleans visited Madison Square Garden in early March, the Knicks kept the game competitive for 46 minutes, but allowed the Hornets to score the final ten points of the game for a 12 point victory. Playing in New Orleans, I wouldn’t expect this game to be nearly as close. After all, the Hornets have been absolutely dominant against weak foes at home, 24-13 ATS in New Orleans and a 33-18 ATS mark as a favorite.

Byron Scott’s squad has now won straight up and covered the spread in nine straight home games, winning eight of those games by double digit margins. As a big favorite of nine points or more (we can expect the Hornets to be laying doubles in this ballgame), the Hornets have gone 11-4 ATS, consistently taking care of business against their weaker foes. Look for that trend to continue in another blowout win on Friday Night in the Big Easy. Take New Orleans.

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Alex Smart

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays Under 9.0

In 25 starts last year, right-hander Shaun Marcum of Blue Jays finished with 11-4 record and a stable 3.91 ERA and an impressive .733 winning percentage. He will face veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield,who almost always makes his team competitive when he takes to the hill. With two very capable hurlers on the hill today, an two viable bull pens supporting them Im expecting a fairly low scoring game that fails to eclipse the number. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 7-0 in Wakefields last 7 road starts vs. Blue Jays . Play under

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LT Profits

Toronto Blue Jays

This is the home opener for the Toronto Blue Jays, who just lost two out of three at Yankee Stadium, and we look for them to emerge victorious here vs. the Boston Red Sox.

The Jays could have easily swept the Yankees, as they held late leads in all three games but lost a couple of 3-2 decisions. Today’s starter Shaun Marcum was a revlation last season as one of the most pleasant surprises in baseball, and he pitcher very well against the Red Sox. He allowed just five earned runs in three starts vs. Boston, and he was brilliant in his only start against them here in Toronto, hurling eight scoreless innings while allowing just two hits and posting 10 strikeouts.

The ageless Tim Wakefield takes the start for the Sox, and while he too was brilliant at times last year, he was his usual inconsistent self with some awful outings also added in the mix. He did not pitch particularly well in is last two starts vs. Toronto, allowing a total of eight earned runs and 16 hits in 12 innings.

At close to a pick’em price, we will back the surer commodity in Marcum here at home.

Pick: Blue Jays


San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz u197.5

This posted total between the San Antonio Jazz and the Utah Jazz seems very high when you consider that none of the last 21 head-to-head meetings between these clubs here in Utah have surpassed 192 points.

As usual, the Spurs have been an excellent Under team this season, with the Under going 43-31-1 overall including an excellent 23-14, 62.2 percent on the road. Those road contests are averaging a combined 187.2 points, about 10 points less than this posted total. Furthermore, only three of their last 13 road games vs. Western Conference opponents have exceeded 197 points.

Now granted, the Jazz have been a great Over team the last couple of years, but the Spurs are one of the few teams that has been able to slow them down somewhat. These teams have met five times here in Utah since the start of last season including the playoffs, and those five games have averaged just 179.6 points combined.

The Jazz won the only meeting here so far this year 97-91, and we expect the total output in this game to about the same 188 points as that first encounter.

Pick: Spurs, Jazz Under 197.5

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VEGAS EXPERTS TIP OF THE DAY

Houston Rockets at Seattle Sonics

The Rockets get no rest after last night’s win in Portland and now must lay nearly double-digits on the road in Seattle. With the impending move to Oklahoma City, you can expect some inspired efforts down the stretch from the Sonics. Despite a five-game losing streak to Houston, Seattle has been very competitive in those losses, going 3-0-2 ATS. Just last month, they kept it within two right here in Key Arena.

Play on: Seattle

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SportsKingz

MLB

L.A. ANGELS -135

BOSTON REDSOX -115

CHI WHITESOX +140

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John Ryan

Game: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves

Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Atlanta. ? Hudson is 7-4 when starting against NYM with an ERA of 3.62 and a WHIP of 1.220. Hudson?s team record is a remarkable 13-2 (+11.8 Units) against the money line versus a NL team with a team batting average of .275 or better since 1997. Although this is very early in the season, I think this angle stands to reason since the Mets will be a team that can certainly hit 275 and higher over the course of the season. Hudson was very impressive in his first start last Sunday and did not walk a batter. Note that he is 36-7 and has made 25 units after a start where he did not walk a batter since 1997.

Take Atlanta.

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DCI

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

TULSA 73, Bradley 70

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Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on Utah Jazz -3

The Jazz are the best home team in the league at 34-4 this season.  Utah is 26-12 ATS in those games.  Utah is a fantastic 15-3 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons, 13-2 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season, and 19-6 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.  The Spurs are just 5-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season and 6-14 ATS in road games after playing a home game this season.  The Jazz are also 18-6 ATS in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.  Utah has played its best ball at home consistently throughout the season as it has been able to dictate the tempo in these games.  We'll make a small play on the Jazz tonight.

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Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -103 (Wakefield and Marcum)

Wakefield has had lots of success against the Jays.  The Red Sox are 19-11 in his last 30 starts against them.  Boston is 18-6 against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.  Toronto is 7-22 against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.  The Red Sox are 8-2 in Wakefield's last 10 starts vs. American League East while the Blue Jays are 1-4 in Marcum's last 5 starts vs. American League East.  The Red Sox are also 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Red Sox crush right handed pitching.  I like Bean Town to knock Marcum around the yard tonight and come up with a win.  Take Boston at a bargain price.

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TONY WESTON

We’re sticking with another road dog tonight as the New York Mets play at the Atlanta Braves in a game the Mets should win pretty easily.

The Mets come into tonight’s game having won 5 out of their last 6 against the Braves and having gone 4-1 their last five games in Atlanta.

John Maine is scheduled to get the start tonight for the Mets and that’s a good thing for New York. The Mets are 12-1 in Maine’s last 13 starts during game 1 of a series, are 16-5 in Maine’s last 21 starts against the NL East and are 15-6 in Maine’s last 21 road starts.

Things haven’t been as strong for the Braves recently when Tim Hudson takes the mound. Atlanta is 1-4 in Hudson’s last five starts and is 1-4 in his last five starts against teams with a winning record. The Braves are also 1-5 their last six games against righties.

It’ll be a boat race. Take the Mets on the road.

3* METS (1* to 5* Scale)

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MONEYLOCKOFTHEDAY

Junior's Pick
Diamondbacks +120

Hawker's Picks
Royals +125
Indians +102

Digger's Pick
Brewers -190

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King Maker Play of the Day

New York Mets +113

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Dominic Brando's Inner Circle Free Pick

Opinion Lean Miami Heat +17/-115 over Washington Wizards

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Brandon Lang

10 Dime - Mavericks / Hawks / Jazz

5 Dime - Dodgers / Phillies

Free pick - Mariners



Brandon Lang

SATURDAY

50-Dime UCLA

10-Dime Kansas

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Fairway Jay

NBA Big Drive: Minnesota +16

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