Sunday Service Plays
Re: Sunday Service Plays
situational elite 8 winner......3*...........davidson
personal best..................tex over 43
5* round 8 blocbuster..............davidson
total gom.....................spurs under
total......................cavs over 91.5
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Texas vs. Memphis
Pick: Texas +3.5
We liked Texas over Stanford and they didn't dissapoint. As we stated in our writeup for that game, the late stages of this tournament are about good guard play and it doesn't get any better than Augustin and Abrams. They took one of the best inside games in the country and made it irrelevant with their quickness. Now, we get the Longhorns plus 3.5 points and we are loving it. Sure, Memphis is the #1 seed but Texas is as good or better than the Tigers. The talk of Memphis early in the tournament focused on whether their horrendious free-throw shooting would hurt them. This team hits 59.1% from the line. 59%!! Well, so far they have cruised and it hasn't been an issue. But guess what? The further they go here, the better teams they face. The further they go, the more likely there will be a close game with increased pressure. The further they go, the more likely free throws will decide the outcome of the game.In the first round Memphis was a 26-point favorite. Then 9.5. Finally 5.5 last game. Now the line is down to 3.5. Guess what - we are now in that range where this could very well play the deciding role. And, when backing an underdog, we know that often times you can lose your bet in a close game as the favorite gets up late and the underdog must foul. Typically, the favorite hits 70%-80% of their free shots and often times turns a close game into a big win, covering the spread. Well, if Memphis is up late and Texas must foul, we have a 4+ out of 10 shot they are going to miss their charity throws. But, we aren't convinced Memphis will be up. Texas's defense has been playing as well as Memphis' of late.They are clicking. The Longhorns are 15-8 ATS this season vs. great defensive opponents (those holding foes to 42% or less from the field) so don't assume Memphis' great defense will shut them down. Texas has covered the spread in three of their lsat five games and 11 of their last 16. Meanwhile, Memphis is just 2-4 ATS in their last six and 6-12 ATS in their last eighteen. We believe Memphis to be slightly overrated and Texas slightly underrated. We give Texas an even shot at winning this game outright and in a close game, we like their chances a lot. Unless it's a Memphis blowout, the Tiger's terrible free-throw shooting could be the difference here so we'll take the dog and the points.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Los Angeles Lakers vs Washington
The Lakers, despite an unbelievable performance from Kobe Bryant, lost again on Friday. The home loss to the Grizzlies came on the heels of a home loss to the Bobcats on Wednesday. Two straight home losses to two of the worst teams in the league will have the Lakers fired up for tonights game. Note that Los Angeles hasnt lost three straight in more than two months! Since acquiring Pau Gasol, thinks really have looked up for the Lakers. In fact theyve gone 15-3 with him in the lineup but 4-5 without him. Tonight though, the story will be Kobe Bryant. Hes averaged 37.2 points per game in his last five games against Washington. He led the way with 30 points in the Lakers last meeting with the Wizards. That game was in Washington but Los Angeles still rolled by double digits and a similar result can be expected today. There is a chance that Gasol returns tonight but the Lakers will roll to a big win here even if theyre without him. The Lakers have lost three straight home games and as Lakers star Kobe Bryant stated, we got to buck up here. Look for a big response from Los Angeles in this one. The Wizards are starting to play better since Caron Butler has come back. Gilbert Arenas is still out but Washington has won 7 of 9 with Butler back on the floor. The Wizards rallied from a double digit halftime deficit to win at Sacramento on Friday. Washington has now won two straight road games but the trip started with an ugly 20 point loss at Portland. With wins in their last two the Wizards are 2-1 so far on this trip but theyve faced three teams that will not be playing in the postseason. In other words, the Wizards are definitely facing a much tougher test tonight. The Wizards did win in their last visit to Los Angeles when they faced the Lakers at the Staples Center last season. However, Arenas had 60 points in that win and he wont score a single point tonight! The Lakers will undoubtedly give their best effort tonight as, not only are they looking to bounce back from consecutive defeats, they have the next two days off before playing again on Wednesday. Contrast this with a Wizards schedule that has them in Utah tomorrow night. Battling for playoff position, the Wizards will likely save some for the Jazz if they get down big in this game. In other words, dont expect Washington to rally big late in this game if the final outcome (a loss) seems unavoidable. This will allow the Lakers to pull away and win by a big margin and that is why this should be another winning Big Easy!
Re: Sunday Service Plays
College Basketball Game of the Day (2-0 Yesterday)
My 10* College Basketball Game of the Day is the Memphis Tigers minus the points over the Texas Longhorns. Chalk, Chalk, Chalk has been the story of this year's tournament as all of the #1 seeds still remain and favorites have cashed over 70% of the time in this 2008 tournament. Since the tournament has started there has never been a final four in which all four number one seeds were a part of it. Well today I expect history will be made as we will roll with the Tigers to get the job done and advance to the final four. The reason it will be happen this year is something I have stated all year long there are four teams that are just leaps and bounds better than the rest of the country with both personnel and coaching. That is UCLA, UNC, Kansas and Memphis; teams like Tennessee, Louisville and Texas are close to that level but not there. There are two teams that have flat out impressed me in this tournament, North Carolina, who we cashed a ticket with yesterday over Louisville and the Memphis Tigers. The Tigers are coming off a sweet 16 blowout over Michigan State in a game in which they put together probably the best half (1st half) of any team I have seen in college basketball this season. They held Michigan State to 20 points and were up 30 at the half and mind you this was a very solid Spartans squad who spent most of the season in the top 15. The much maligned free throw shooting situation was silenced at least for one game as Memphis shot 26 of 35 for 74.3%. This team just looks very determined when they step on the floor, most of that probably has to do with their embarrassing exit last year to Ohio State in which they were wiped out. Memphis will refuse to let that happen again and Coach Cal I am sure has this team very amped to get into the final four. It seems they are getting no respect from anyone in the media and that will only motivate this team even more and motivate Coach Cal to use the no respect card with his kids. Texas wins from the perimeter especially behind the 3 point line, Memphis is a team that has been very good defensively this year and can shut teams down around the perimeter, ranking 23rd in the nation in points allowed at 61.4, 9th in the nation in 38.9% and 8th in the nation at 30.2% from 3PT range. Anderson will shut down Abrams here as he did with Neitzel (2-8 FG, 6pts) and Lofton (7pts) while I expect the Derrick Rose vs. DJ Augustin matchup to be fantastic the biggest key for Memphis is CDR who will continue to be unstoppable. Rose and CDR will be able to take their men of the dribble all day long and Dorsey, Dozier, and Taggart will dominate the paint versus the short depth of the front court of Texas. I expect the depth of Texas to catch up with them a bit here along with Memphis's ability to play defense along with dominate the boards and points in the paint will be the difference. I realize this game is in Texas's backyard in Houston but the bottom line for me is Memphis is more determined, playing great, has more talent, better defensively and has a better coach to get the job done this afternoon. I currently have this line at -3.5 and have this rated at 10* up to -5.
My 10* College Basketball Game of the Day is the Memphis Tigers minus the points.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Game: Colorado Avalanche vs. Minnesota Wild
Prediction: Minnesota Wild Reason: I'm laying the price with MINNESOTA. Both teams have picked up their level of play down the stretch but the Avs may come in "patting themselves" on the back a bit, as they were very fortunate to avoid a loss in their last game. In fact, they were six seconds away from losing until Sakic scored the tying goal to force OT. Sakic, who went on to score the winner in the shootout, said: "We knew if we won this one we put ourselves in pretty good shape..." Coach Joel Quenneville went on to say: "The point was like a win, and capping it off with the extra point was gigantic..." Not exactly the comments of a "desperate" sounding team. Regardless of whether or not the Avs experience a 'letdown' from Friday's dramatic win, they've really struggled here and I expect them to find the going difficult again today. Minnesota has won all three meetings here this season, outscoring the Avs by a 10-4 margin in those games. The Wild have now earned at least one point in eight straight home meetings with Colorado, going 6-0-2 during that stretch. The Wild, who have won their last two games by a combined score of 7-1, are one of the league's best teams at preserving a lead. That's due to their defensive system but also due to their stellar goaltending. Niklas Backstrom comes off a shutout in his last game and is now 5-0-1 with a 1.39 goals-against average and two shutouts in his last seven starts. That brings him to an impressive 16-2-6 with a 1.62 GAA in his career in games played after March 1. Note that Backstrom is also 6-1-1 with a 2.09 GAA in eight career starts vs. the Avs. Aiming for their first division title in franchise history, look for another strong effort from the Wild as they continue their home ice domination in this series, improving to 7-2 the last nine times they played on a Sunday. *Annihilator
Game: Calgary Flames vs. Vancouver Canucks
Prediction: Vancouver Canucks Reason: I'm laying the price with VANCOUVER. This is a really big game for Calgary. However, it's an absolutely huge game for the Canucks. I expect them to respond with a massive effort. It's true that the Canucks are currently dealing with some injury issues. However, as center Ryan Kesler noted: "There's a lot of character on this team. Right now we're going through a little adversity, but that's when we're at our best." Its true that goalie Roberto Luongo, perhaps distracted by the recent birth of his daughter, has struggled lately for Vancouver. He's one of the best in the game though, as well as one of the most competitive. He's also 4-2 with a 2.32 goals-against average against the Flames this season. I expect him back in goal this evening and I also expect him to return to his 'normal' high level of play. Luongo will face a Calgary team which is coming off a disappointing loss, in its home finale, to its hated provincial rival (Edmonton) last night. Vancouver, which had last night off, is a profitable 32-20 (+11.6) the past few seasons after scoring one goal or less in its previous game, including a 10-6 mark in that situation this season. Look for the Canucks to improve on those stats here, moving to 5-0 since November when playing a home game on a Sunday. *Personal Favorite
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Timberwolves +5.5 (3 units)
Sometimes you take a look at a line and you just know that it is essentially a trap or a bait set up for the public. Such is the case here and the line has consistently been going down despite the public hammering the Jazz. If this was at 7 points, that would have been great, but it has come down to 5.5. In fact, I nearly took the ML in this play for 1 unit instead of the full ATS - I nearly did the same with the Wizards. But, the Twolves are notoroious for playing close ballgames and Minny actually beat this team outright back on February to which the Jazz then got revenge recently by blowing them out by about 30 at home. I look for the Twolves to win this game outright, there is no Okur for this ballgame, the public is likely to get buried here and the Twolves come off a tough road trip at San Antonio and Houston losing by double-digits and are 10-2 ATS coming off a loss of 10 points or more.
Timberwolves +205 ML (1 unit)
I like the idea of taking the Twolves with revenge, coming off a 10 point loss or more to back to back teams on a tough road trip to Houston and San Antonio where they are 10-2 ATS afterwards of such a double-digit loss, they beat this team outright in February, no Okur and they are in a good spot today so I will take the ML here for just a unit as it does yield 2.05:1 which any time in basketball I can get 2 to 1 odds, I will drop a unit to increase profit margin - similar to baseball.
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