Sunday Service Plays

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LARRY NESS

Texas 9 Units

NO Hornets 7.5 Units

Spurs 6 Units

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THE 'SPORTSMEN'

5* Texas + 1 unit

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Winning Points Online

**PREFERRED
OVER 144
Davidson vs. Kansas

Kansas head coach Bill Self is sweating big-time, talking a good game about making defensive adjustments to win a game he has never advanced from, with a team of scorers. Good luck, pal,you'll need it. Davidson is just goin' out and playin' ball, running and shooting 3s, and that drags Kansas into a shootout -- not exactly twisting their players arms -- because a fast-paced game where they can all point to their double-digit scoring totals and wait to be patted on the head by somebody afterwards is what the Kansas players would prefer. Anything different simply gives Davidson a chance to hang around and be right there with a chance to win at the end, so Kansas is playing against a double-edged sword. Self blew some smoke talking up Davidson as being "bigger" than most people realize. But they are not. Davidson's 6-8 players are relative stringbeans who will not be bumping Kansas around and not taking them too much out of their offensive rhythm.

KANSAS 85-81

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THE LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT


TEXAS vs MEMPHIS

Play: TEXAS +3.5 (CBB)
Odd situation here. We never felt so square taking a dog before as you get that vibe it's a public play but seems like Texas is playing with a chip on their shoulder as if nobody is giving them a chance. While all the talk have been on the teams to the far extreme sides of the coasts, people are bypassing the Big 12. We are not going to make more of this play than it is. No need to try to impress you with stats in what should be a close game. Memphis is a quality team but haven't been a prize as far as ATS play. Texas is a perfect 3-0 vs Conference USA teams. Numbers for Memphis favor an under as opposed to a ATS cover which means a close game and getting the points in our direction gives us the edge here as Vegas is not giving away money so don't expect to ride the favorites to the finals. Lets take the dog in this one for the Sunday cash.


DALLAS vs NEW YORK

Play: DALLAS vs NEW YORK OVER 96 (ARENA FOOTBALL)
We don't normally rate plays as we are firm believers in flat wagering and not cherry picking plays but if we did rate, this would be a smaller play. Everything on paper lends itself to a Dallas blowout thus the Vegas line of 12.5 to 13 but anyone who followed us on the Philly win over New York knows we bascially got a little luck on our side as a last play INT for a touchdown got us a cover in what should have been a blowout. While other services would brag and take advantage of a break, we are honest with ourselves to know we caught a lucky break which keeps us off Dallas today as New york at home seems to play tougher. Looking at Dallas matchups this season and nothing suggests any cover beyond 10 points. Dallas should get the win today but in a league made for back door covers, we will opt to play the OVER. New York had no troubles scoring on league best Philadelphia and Dallas has had no problems scoring in the mid 50's to mid 60's. Take in the theory that we believe Dallas should only have a -10 line and that adds up to a game that should go over 100. You're looking at a 96 line. Take the Over in this matchup.


NEW ORLEANS vs COLORADO

Play: COLORADO -1 (ARENA FOOTBALL)
New Orleans ranks from first to fourth in all offensive categories yet they come in as the dog. This has trap written all over it as New Orleans should be the obvious choice. As we dig deeper we find that even though Colorado is 1-3 so far this season, we see from the Arena pages that Colorado is 7-3 last 10 home games. Head coach MIKE DAILEY is one win shy of becoming fourth coach in League history to reach 100 regular-season victories...QB JOHN DUTTON ranks fourth in League in completion pct. (67.6)...WR BEN NELSON has third-most receptions on third-downs (4)...FB/LB ROBERT THOMAS tied League lead in third and one rushing (100.0)...Defense ranks second in field goal pct. (16.7)...Defense ranks fifth in passing (253.3)...DB RASHAD FLOYD has recorded league-best 43 tackles over last six regular season games. New orleans is also nursing a host of injuries on the offensive line. We maybe getting tricked here, and LVTR was the first to be on the New Orleans bandwagon as we have called all their games perfectly this season when nobody gave them a chance but everyone has caught on and you can be sure that Vegas has too. Colorado at 1-3 will turn the squares off but as you can see from the tech stats, we maybe getting some value on an under the radar team with a solid home record which is a huge advantage when wagering Arena football

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Brandon Lang

25-Dime Texas
5-Dime Davidson
Free play Sixers

25 Dime Texas - Okay, so I’ve covered the whole “not all four No. 1 seeds can make the Final Four intangible,” so let’s talk about why the Longhorns will knock Memphis off that cloud, and end its season right here.

We’re going to see one of the most intriguing matchups between two of the more talented backcourts in the nation. Memphis' Derrick Rose and Texas’ D.J. Augustin are two of the nation's top point guards, and I have this clash as a dead-even wash. But when matching up Texas' A.J. Abrams and Memphis’ Antonio Anderson, I am going to side with Abrams. I know the Tigers' length and athleticism on the perimeter has been impressive, but the fact is, I’ve yet to see many defenders rattle Abrams this season.

Barnes knows he cannot afford to let Memphis’ defenders get established in the half-court defense, so you’re going to see the Longhorns push the ball quickly when the opportunity is there. I am expecting a flurry of 3-pointers on the move, something that will create points and long rebounds; now I know the latter can lead to transition opportunities on the other end of the court, but Texas’ boys are agile, and can move to the rock just as quick, in order to give the ‘Horns second-chance opportunities.

The main factor to our success in this one is Texas center Connor Atchley, who will make Memphis forward Joey Dorsey run all over the place, tiring him out and wearing him down – which will be the key late in the game. I am also much more impressed by Texas swingman Damion James, who should run Memphis’ Robert Dozier ragged throughout the game, being James like to dwell on the perimeter.
I am telling you now, if Texas can keep up with the pace Memphis likes to establish early, and Abrams can make his outside shots, the Tigers might find themselves in a late shootout from the charity stripe, which certainly falls in our favor. Texas is no great free-throw shooting team at 68 percent, but it’s much better than Memphis’ paltry 59.8 percent.

Bottom line is this game starts with coaching, and under Rick Barnes we’ve seen the ‘Horns perform particularly well historically in the underdog role; and though we’re getting points, let’s not forget we will be playing in front of a home crowd, in Houston, where about 20,000 fans should be back for this one. Grab the points in this one tonight.


5 Dime Davidson - Orlando is about 545 miles from Davidson, N.C., but there’s certainly something Magical when it comes to basketball at Davidson College. And the wizard creating all the enchantment is Stephen Curry, who has scored 103 points through his first three NCAA games, an average of 34.3 points per contest. Now there have been some impressive showings in the past when it comes to the Big Dance, but when you’re talking about a kid like this, doing what he’s done against a quicker Gonzaga team, a bigger Georgetown team and a much more physical team like Wisconsin, well, you have something special.

And nobody should be shocked, as the list of formidable foes continues to grow. Here’s the type of competition this team has seen from the start of the season – Duke, North Carolina, NC State, UCLA, Gonzaga, Georgetown and Wisconsin. Wouldn’t it be something if Curry turns the ‘Cats into this season’s George Mason. I wouldn’t be shocked of anything any more. Grab the points here.

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Ferringo


1.5-Unit Play. Take Texas (+3.5) over Memphis
1-Unit Play. Take Texas (+145) over Memphis

In each of the past seven years the Final Four has included two teams from the same conference. I'm assuming a Kansas win today over Davidson, so Texas would complete/continue this trend. Further, never has their been a time where all four No. 1 seeds advanced. That's generally the case for a reason. Even including Saturday's blowouts, No. 1 seeds are still just 5-11 ATS in the Elite Eight over the past several years. Mix in the fact that Texas will have the home fans and I think they can win this game. They have better guards and I think all the value is on a dog finally showing up to play in this tournament.

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Beat Your Bookie

CBB

100* Memphis -3.5
50* Kansas -9.5

NBA

50* Boston -22.5

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Doc's


5 Unit Play. Take Davidson +10 over Kansas
All the pressure in the world is on Kansas and Coach Bill Self, as this is a defining moment in his coaching career. He has underachieved during his entire career @ KU and if Davidson can keep it close early, the pressure will mount even more. Granted this is the best squad Davidson will face in the tournament, but Curry started to make contested shots against Wisconsin during the first half, something he struggled with against Gonzaga & Georgetown. This kid is for real and will enter this game with all the confidence in the world. The Wildcats have the nation’s longest winning streak and played a brutal non-conference schedule to open the season. They stayed close with the likes of Duke, North Carolina, and UCLA so there is no reason to believe they cannot keep this game under single digits as well. Kansas cannot blow this opportunity can they? History certainly says yes!

2 Unit Play. Take Texas +3 ½ over Memphis
This sets up for a great value since this game is being played in Texas and Memphis has played an easy conference and tournament schedule thus far. Remember this is the same Michigan State team that was pounded by Indiana and also has losses to Penn State and Iowa. If Texas can keep this close early, as the pressure shifts to Memphis since this is their third straight elite eight appearance and they have yet to reach the final four under Coach Cal. Texas has better guards and they made shots against Stanford and expect them to stay hot. Texas keeps this close early and pulls it out late. Maybe look at the money line with the Horns for a small play as well.


Doc's NHL

4 Unit Play. Take Minnesota -130 over Colorado

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DAVE MALINSKY

6* Memphis/Tx Under 144

6* Cavs Over 191

4* Twolves Under 207

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Ben Burns

Game: Sacramento Kings at Seattle SuperSonics
Prediction: Seattle SuperSonics

Reason: Even with this year's top rookie, the Sonics certainly aren't the most talented team in the league. Knowing that it could be their last season here in Seattle, they've been fighting hard at home down the stretch though. They've only won one of their last three games but the two losses came by just three and five points. The Kings have arguably more talent but seemingly have started "going through the motions" a bit of late, as they've gone 1-4 SU/ATS their last five. Note that the lone SU win came by one point in a home game vs. Memphis. The Sonics have played the Kings tough this season. They split the two meetings at Sacramento, winning by 13 while losing by six. The game here at Seattle came down to the wire, with the Kings eventually winning by just three points. Look for the Sonics to give their guests all they can handle once again with a solid shot at stealing an outright win.

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Nick Parsons

Game: Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals

Reason: Member Pick: Play ON Washington Nationals Run Line (+1.5 runs) vs Atlanta @ 8:05 ET – Yes, Tim Hudson is a solid pitcher but to be able to get the Nationals +1.5 runs with very little juice is a bargain in this match-up. At home, and playing their first game in their brand new stadium, the Nationals are ready for the Braves in this one. Note that the Braves lost some big lumber from last season’s team, including Andruw Jones. They also saw Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur have a significant drop off in home run numbers last season. What this means is that the Braves lineup just doesn’t have the same pop it once did and they do have a number of left-handed sticks, including McCann, who could struggle against Odalis Perez of the Nationals. Perez finished up last season respectably after getting off to a poor start last year. Coming over from the American League back to the National League should also help Perez. What we like most about the Nationals here is their revamped lineup. Note that injuries took a huge toll on the Nationals lineup last season but, with more healthy sticks now, this team has plenty of lumber that can do some damage this season. It all starts tonight against the Braves Tim Hudson. After starting last season 11-5, Hudson went just 5-5 in August and September of last season. Yes, he is a solid starter and a reliable arm but he’s facing a Nationals lineup that will be quite different from the one he dominated at times last season. The Nats are definitely worth a look on the run line here as they should be in this game all the way through on a night when chilly temperatures will aid a tighter, low-scoring game.

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Moneylockoftheday

Junior's Pick
Atlanta Braves -160

Hawker's Pick
Texas +3.5

Digger's Pick
Utah/Minnesota Under 208

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Jeff Bonds

ATL (-165) vs WAS

It's going to be a special night in the nation's capitol, as the Washington Nationals open up their new ball park against the Atlanta Braves.

Problem is - they're simply overmatched on opening night, as the Braves send ace Tim Hudson to the mound against veteran left-hander Odalis Perez.

Emotions will certainly be high - but Hudson is FAR BETTER suited for such a start. Perez has simply been below average the past three seasons - tallying a 14-19 record with an ERA over 5.50 in each season.

Hudson seems primed to make a splash again this season - coming off a 2-0 spring with a 1.47 ERA in five starts. The right-hander was a perfect 4-0 with a 0.60 ERA in four starts against the Nationals in 2007 and there's no left-handed bat in this lineup to give him problems this season. Washington will start Nick Johnson, but it's his first start in quite some time (missing games due to injury) -he carries a .188 average against Hudson (3-for-16).

The Atlanta Braves prove victorious in the season opener on American soil.

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Gina


Dallas Mavericks (45-27) at Golden State Warriors (44-28)

The Mavericks have dropped four of their last five road games and have a sorrowful record against the Warriors. Dallas has lost nine of their last 13 games against Golden State, going 2-11 ATS. Look for the high powered Warriors to outscored the Mavericks and take advantage of the Mavericks being without their key player All-Star forward Dirk Nowitzki. Go with the Warriors at home. Dallas 0-7 ATS in the last 7 battles in Golden State and the home team in this series has covered six of the last 7 meetings.

Golden State Warriors


Golden State Warriors - 5
Washington Wizards + 8½



Mr A

San Antonio Spurs -5
Philadelphia 76ers + 3½
Golden State Warriors - 4½



Johnny Guild

Texas Longhorns + 3.5
Davidson Wildcats + 9.5

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California Sports

4* Jazz

3* Davidson

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Marc Lawrence Elite 8 Never Lost Perfect Play!

Kansas

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Sports Monitor

Sacramento (32-40) at Seattle (17-56)

Kings -5 /total 215

TRENDS: The Kings have covered two of their last 11 road games. Theroad team has covered ten of the last 12 in this series. Theover is 6-2 in Sacramento's last eight road games.

GAME SUMMARY: Seattle, with the worst record in the Western Conference and losses in 13 of its last 15, doesn't seem to have muchof a chance to end its skid against Sacramento.


PREDICTION: Sacramento 114 Seattle 103

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DR BOB

NBA
2 Star Selection
GOLDEN STATE (-5) over Dallas
30-Mar-08 06:05 PM Pacific Time
The value of injured star Dirk Nowitski is more than the oddsmakers think it is, and the Mavericks are now 0-4 ATS without Nowitski this season and 1-7 ATS without their star since the beginning of last season. Dallas is easily worse than an average team with Nowitski and I favor the Warriors by 9 points in this game. Dallas didn’t match up well with Golden State even with their star and they certainly don’t match up now. In fact, the Mavericks continue to have trouble with all fast paced teams – especially on the road. With their 13 point loss at Denver on Thursday the Mavericks are now just 4-20 ATS the last two seasons in road games when the over/under is 200 points or higher, including 1-18 ATS if their opponent has a win percentage of .333 or higher. Dallas is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 trips to Oakland and now they catch the Warriors after a loss, which will make it even tougher for them to compete. Golden State is 21-1 straight up in their last 22 games following a loss and the Warriors are 16-2 ATS in games after a loss when not favored by more than 6 points when both Stephen Jackson and Baron Davis are playing. Both teams obviously have incentive, but the Warriors are now a much better team and they rarely play poorly in consecutive games. I’ll take Golden State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less.
2-Stars at -6 or less.

COLLEGE
2 Star Selection
Texas (+3 ½) over Memphis
30-Mar-08 11:20 AM Pacific Time
Memphis was clearly better than Texas this season if you considered all games equally, but the Longhorns have a strong tendency to play better against other good teams while relaxing against mediocre and bad teams. The Horns were just 3-5 ATS as a double-digit favorite in the regular season, but they are 6-3 straight up this season as an underdog. Texas played 6 games against top level teams this season and their results were very impressive. The Longhorns split 2 games with Kansas, beat Tennessee by 19 points on a neutral floor, won straight up at UCLA, whipped Stanford by 20 points and lost by just 1 point to Wisconsin. Overall, Texas’ scoring margin in those games was +5.5 points against a schedule that rates at 2 ½ points worse than Memphis’ rating. Memphis, meanwhile, beat up on bad teams this season and split their two games against top level teams, beating Georgetown at home by 14 and losing by 4 at home to Tennessee. Weighting all games equally for both teams would result in Memphis having a rating that is 5 points better than the Longhorns, but giving more weight to games against better competition results in these teams having an equal rating and I would make this game a pick if this were a neutral court. But, this game is not a neutral court, as Texas has more support with this game being played in Houston and teams playing in their home state are now 115-75 ATS in NCAA Tournament games since I’ve been keeping track, including 9-3 ATS this year. Texas appears to be getting 1 ½ points for playing in Houston, given that the oddsmakers opened this line at Memphis by 3 ½ points (remember, using all games equally results in Memphis by 5 on a neutral court). If my ratings make this game a pick on a neutral court, then I favor Texas by 1 ½ points here in Houston. I’ll take Texas in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 3-Stars at +4 or more. My predicted total is 142 points.
2-Stars at +3 or more, 3-Stars at +4 or more.

Opinion
Davidson (+9 ½) over Kansas

30-Mar-08 02:05 PM Pacific Time
My ratings have tabbed Davidson as an underrated team in each round of this tournament and that is the case once again. Kansas is a great team, but the Jayhawks have been relatively better against mediocre and bad teams than they have against other good teams and my ratings adjust for that tendency. Davidson, meanwhile, was as good as they needed to be in sweeping through the weak Southern Conference, playing better when they needed to play better and letting up against the league’s bad teams. My ratings adjust for Davidson’s tendency to perform relatively better against good teams, which is why I’ve been leaning with the Wildcats to cover in this tournament. Weighting all games for the entire season equally would result in a fair line of Kansas by 9 ½ points and the oddsmakers came up with the same number. However, that is not a realistic number given Kansas’ tendency to run up the score against bad teams while Davidson had the opposite tendency. If I throw out games each team played against bad teams I then get Kansas by 8 points. If I only include opponents that are NIT caliber or better I then get a prediction of 7 points. And, if I use only games played by Kansas against NCAA Tournament caliber teams I get a fair line of Jayhawks by only 5 ½ points. Davidson has played 6 games this season against very good teams (North Carolina, Duke, UCLA, Gonzaga, Georgetown, and Wisconsin) and their average scoring margin in those games is +0.8 points. Davidson has certainly proven that they can play with the best teams in the nation and my NCAA ratings favor Kansas by 5 ½ points, which I believe to be the fair line on this game. Unfortunately, Davidson applies to a negative 46-116-4 ATS situation and that situation is 10-31-1 ATS in NCAA Tournament games. The Wildcats also apply to a 13-1 ATS NCAA tourney situation that plays on Cinderella teams (#9 seeded or worse) coming off an upset win. Overall, the technical analysis favors Kansas a bit in this game so I will not make Davidson a Best Bet. However, I’ll lean with Davidson at +8 points or more. My predicted total is 146 points.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

ROOT

Chairman - Texas
Millionaire - Kansas
Money Maker - Timberwolves

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