Saturday Service Plays
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Play: 3* Denver Nuggets -7
Score: Denver Nuggets 126 Golden State Warriors 114
Comments: Here we are again playing the Nuggets but there is a reason for our continued use of this team, they cover. They have covered 11 of their last 13 and we have used them five of those 11 times and we hope this is winner number six. Over the course of those last 13 games the Nuggets have used their ability to score points to get the wins; they have averaged 120 points per game. This number is a problem for the Warriors as we know they are 5-14 ATS on the road when they allow 105 or more points in a game this season, while Denver is 35-16 ATS when they score 105 or more points in a game this season. That record improves to 27-11 ATS if they score 110 or more points in a game this season. In looking at the performances of their personnel we noticed that during the month of March Allen Iverson’s shooting percentage has jumped to 49% from a career shooting percentage of 42 percent. After further inspection we note that Iverson and Carmelo Anthony have combined for 49 points per game in this series after averaging 58 points per game last season. These two feast on the Warriors inability to play defense and this trend will continue tonight. The Nuggets have covered six straight at home and are 23-13 ATS at the Pepsi Center overall this season. Playoff implications abound here also with Denver 1 ½ games behind Golden State and both teams need the win but we must side with the home team here tonight. Technical research shows us that Denver off 3 ATS wins now playing at home they are 45-27-2 ATS. If Denver won its last game SU and went over the total and are now playing at home they are 89-63-1 ATS. If they are installed as a home favorite in that same situation their record is 66-44-1 ATS. Their ATS record really improves when they are facing conference opponents. If Denver is off an ATS win in their last game and now installed as a conference favorite of 6 to 8 points their record is 13-2-1 ATS if in their last game they won both SU and ATS their record improves to 11-1 ATS. Lay the points with the host as Denver cashes another winning ticket at the Pepsi Center on Saturday night.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
30 Dime - Louisville
30 Dime - UCLA
Free Pick - Xavier/UCLA Under
30 Dime UCLA - Where oh where is Josh Shipp? The talented swingman’s game has deserted him, and there’s something that tells me the switch gets flipped with this kid today. Sounds weird, I know, to start this analysis off like this, but guys, honestly, the Bruins look vulnerable right now; and just when you think it’s time to jump off their bandwagon, you cannot. This is the biggest mistake to make, is disregard a national power like this, especially coming in off a 10-point win – albeit a point-spread loss. Imagine if Shipp was on fire, then what?
Listen, we all know UCLA's biggest weapon is freshman big man Kevin Love, who has been amazing late in the season, averaging 22.7 points and 11.3 rebounds per game at the Dance. Quite frankly, it’s his presence that gives UCLA a rebounding edge of more than eight per game.
And the paint is a key area I am counting on, because I wonder if Xavier can handle itself on the boards against a guy like Love, not to mention the rest of the rough-and-tumble UCLA big men. Remember, the Bruins are much, much different than West Virginia, and the Musketeers could be in for a rude awakening.
See, if we have a guy like Shipp firing his shots, and he continues to misfire, we will have several second-chance points thanks to the offensive boards Love can handle. If Shipp gets hot, it becomes contagious fast with this team, and then it’s just a blowout on wheels. Either way the Bruins’ style of play will keep Xavier’s 3-point shooters playing keep-up, or its big men trying to slow things down. But again, it comes down to who bangs harder in the paint, and I won’t side against Love in this situation.
The Bruins find ways to win close ball games; they also find ways to cover them. They’re on an 8-2 ATS run in games they’ve been installed as a favorite up to 6-1/2 points. They’ve also followed up an ATS loss to cover 35 of 51 in that situation. Let’s lay the chalk with the boys from Westwood, and look for our Shipp to sail in.
30 Dime Louisville – I’ll be real honest here, I haven’t seen as much enthusiasm in a Louisville team since Denny Crum was wearing those hideous plaid pants and those v-neck red sweaters. Remember Pervis Ellison, Milt Wagner, Herbert Crook and Billy Thompson? That was a quartet that starred for a team that played well together. Louisville won the championship in 1986 behind unity, and 22 years later, we could be looking at destiny for Rick Pitino’s bunch.
It begins with nasty, nasty defense — a mix of aggressive man-to-man and a zone — that has been absolutely superb in the second half of the season, since it became healthy. We talked about this two days ago, that the return of David Padgett and Juan Palacios was the key for this team’s 18-4 spark. We also talked about the depth of the team, and the fact Pitino can use his reserves confidently, because of how much playing time – not to mention how much character was built – they got when the Cardinals were playing with a limited roster due to injuries.
And more so today, that depth will be relied on, against a team that is much more than just Tyler Hansbrough. North Carolina also has Ty Lawson, one of the nation's best point guards, it has Wayne Ellington’s great shooting range and Danny Green’s scoring punch off the bench. That’s where the defense comes in, as the Cardinals will try to make this somewhat of a grind-it-out event. Pitino knows his team has no shot at winning a track meet with the Tar Heels, so it’s all about using the entire shot clock when the ball is in his court.
Clearly, these two teams have been absolutely dominating during this event, but as well as North Carolina has been playing, I honestly believe Louisville has been playing even better. Louisville has that always effective inside-out offense to score from anywhere and that will help when the clock is winding down; again, it also has a stringent defense – one that held Tennessee to just 34 percent from the field – and North Carolina is capable of being held in check. Look for the Heels to struggle in their first true test of the tournament, while the Cardinals quite possibly pay homage to ol’ Denny Crum.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
5 Unit Play. Take North Carolina -5½ over Louisville
Not much explanation is needed for this selection, as we have easily rode the Tar Heels to victory in their last two games and many of us still have a future bet on them to win it all. Scoring has been the way to go this tournament and Louisville likes to keep it in the sixties, where UNC likes it in the nineties. The Cardinals are hitting their stride during the tournament, but the Heels have yet to lose a game away from Chapel Hill this season. Carolina is finally healthy with Lawson back at full strength and playing in Charlotte gives them a major advantage. Carolina has won 7 of the 10 meetings between the programs and it is their year to cut down the nets.
3 Unit Play. Take UCLA -6 over Xavier
The chalk again gets the call in the JV affair, as the Bruins have yet play a complete game since the opener and our feeling is that they are due. This team has a huge advantage playing in Phoenix and St. Joes is a similar team to them without the horses inside. Why does that matter? Well the Hawks beat the Musketeers twice during the last two weeks of the regular season and with Kevin Love dominating inside; the Bruins will put forth their best performance of the tournament season. History also has a lot to do with this pick, as UCLA is a perennial Final Four participant and Xavier lost their only elite eight games to Duke a couple of years back. Everyone wants the four number one seeds to advance to the Final Four and who are we to argue with that, as the Bruins win this one by double digits.
1 Unit Play. Take Oklahoma State +10 over LSU
If you can bet women’s hoops take a look at this game for a small play.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Detroit Pistons -7.5 (-110) (Play of the Day)
This is likely the POD but I haven't finished the research yet. Long story short, the Pistons come off a nice win over the Heat, but lost to this Cavs team by 16 points on the road in what was a competitive game. The Pistons do not like this team ever since they lost the NBA Eastern Conference Championship to them and take a look back at a ballgame back on November 28th before this latest meeting in Cleveland as that game was in the Palace and the Pistons won by 30+. Well, another game in the Palace, I understand that the Cavs come off back to back losses, but West is Questionable as is Gibson, granted Wallace is questionable for the Pistons, but I would not be surprised to see him play and the Pistons get some massive revenge today while running up the score if at all possible. This Pistons team remember recently covered against the Nuggets winning by 16 at home and the Hornets winning by 21, they certainly beat the Cavs by double-digits who recently lost at Milwaukee by 10 points.
Phoenix Suns @ New Jersey Nets
Pick: 3 unit(s) TOTAL: Over 220.5 (-110) (Normal)
Long story short here, the Nets have scored 110+ points plus consistently against the likes of Denver, Atlanta, Utah and the Pacers and are 5-0 to the over at home. I don't give a rat's tail that the line movement directly goes against this play as I feel the public looks at the Suns vs. Sixers game yesterday and see that 200 points were scored and it went well under. Well, the Sixers are a defensive team, so I am not surprised at this, on the other hand, the Nets are a more offensive minded team with Harris at the point and they are consistently popping over a 100 pionts. So, why not have them pop that at home today where 80% of the public is on the Suns in a game they could win outright, a game they have revenge on, at home with the Suns who will also run up and down similar to the other 4 teams mentioned up top if not more. I don't give a rat's tail once again about line movement, the over is 7-2 for the Nets overall and 21-5 to the over for the Suns against the Eastern Conference.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Clippers
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Memphis Grizzlies +3 (-113) (Normal)
There is simply no reason why the Grizzlies should be underdogs today. Considering that this team has covered 7 of 8, I have consistently tracked this team and hit their cover the last few ballgames, they do have revenge coming into this ballgame against the Clippers who have lost more than 10 straight straight up and yet are still favored, the Grizzlies play well with 0 days rest, they continue to shoot the ball exceptionally well with Gay, Miller and company as they are young, athletic and frankly beleive they can beat anyone as they are your poor man's Phoenix Suns in a way similar to last year. The new additions to the team have meshed well and this is a game that they should win outright, but I'll be glad to take the 3 points similar to it becoming useful with the Sonics who lost by just 3 yesterday. The Grizzlies are a solid 6-0 ATS against teams with a losing straight up record as this team is winning the ballgames they are supposed to and the Clippers are 0-7 ATS as small favorites of late.
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