Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Scott Spreitzer

Game: Xavier at UCLA
Prediction: Xavier

Reason: I'm taking the points with the Musketeers on Saturday. Both of these squads jumped out to huge leads in their sweet-16 wins. Both teams were then forced to make big plays in the late stages to secure a berth in the elite-8. While it was no major surprise that WVU was able to get back in the game and take Xavier to the brink, it was a bit of a surprise that UCLA couldn't get the "kill" against WKU when they were up by 21 at the half, and up 55-36 several minutes into the second half. That's been the story for the Bruins this season. Many times, they have built double-digit leads, only to see most of it evaporate midway through the second half. Ben Howland is not making the right adjustments or counters, and it seems as though the Bruins are winning due to talent alone at times. Now, they face their most difficult test of the tourney thus far. Xavier puts six players in double-digits per game. Half-a-dozen Musketeers average between 10 and 12 points per game. In fact, six Musketeers scored between 8 and 18 points in their second round win over Purdue. Sean Miller is getting great leadership at the point from Lavender and the team is getting to the charity stripe. As talented as the Bruins are, they do go through long cold stretches. I believe it catches up to them in this one. I'm taking the points with Xavier on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Nick Parsons

Game: Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: under

Reason: Member Pick: Play ON UNDER the total in Denver vs Golden State @ 9:05 ET – This total is simply too high. With the number of high scoring games that each of these teams have played in recent weeks it finally has forced the odds makers to overadjust and that’s the point they are at now with this total up to nearly 240. Note that Denver hasn’t played a game where over 239 points were scored since their “ridiculous” game at Detroit nearly two weeks ago when they combined with the Pistons to erupt for 256 points! Granted, the Nuggets have been involved in some high scoring games since then but nothing over the number of 239 that is currently posted on this game. Also helping the UNDER in this match-up is the fact that Denver does come into this game well rested and fresh legs helps a lot on the defensive end. The Nuggets also have seen what better defense can do for them as many of their recent wins have been attributable to finally clamping down on defense. The Nuggets are finally grasping the understanding that defense can win them some ballgames! As for the Warriors. Golden State certainly does not have a good grasp of the fundamentals of defense. However, even so, the Warriors haven’t played to a total over 239 (in regulation, note loss to LAL 3/24 was in OT) since they won at Atlanta 135-118 three and a half weeks ago. This total has simply been placed too high when you consider that both teams are rested (Warriors second game in five days too – just like Denver) and that the Warriors are coming off of a game where they only allowed 95 points! The odds makers are calling for a game where at least one of the teams gets to 120 and we’re not so sure that’s accurate based on the type of game flow we expect to see here. This one stays UNDER!

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Game: Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers

Reason: The Clippers are 4-1 Straight Up and 3-1-1 ATS their last 5 home games vs. the Grizzlies and they are 4-0 ATS off a double digit loss. Memphis is 1-6 ATS their last 7 meetings vs. Los Angeles and they are 22-33 as underdogs. The Grizzlies are 9-23 ATS off a straight up win and they are 0-6 ATS after playing yesterday if their starters combined to play 160 minutes. PLAY ON LA CLIPPERS -

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

BEN BURNS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

UNDER Ucla/Xavier
Game: Xavier vs. UCLA
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on UCLA and Xavier to finish UNDER the number. After allowing a mere 20 points in the first half, the UCLA defense collapsed in the second half against Western Kentucky. I expect a MUCH better defensive effort for the entire game by the Bruins this evening. Note that the Bruins allowed an average of just 39 points in their first two NCAA Tournament games, both which stayed comfortably below the number. Despite Thursday's result, the UNDER is still 10-4 in the Bruins' NCAA Tournament games the past three seasons. This season, they're allowing an average of just 58.5 points including just 54.8 their past four games. The boxscore shows that Xavier, which allows 63.5 point per game, comes off a high-scoring affair against West Virginia. However, that was only due to the game reaching overtime as the final combined score at the end of regulation was low enough to have stayed below the total. Note that West Virginia was 1-for-11 from long range. shot only 39 percent and were 8-for-21 from 3-point range. Despite Thursday's result, the UNDER remains a profitable 9-5 the last 14 times that the Museketeers were listed as underdogs. Look for this evening's game to be lower-scoring than expected once again. *Blue Chip

NHL

UNDER Panthers/Capitals
Game: Washington Capitals vs. Florida Panthers
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Capitals and Panthers to finish UNDER the number. Huge game for the Capitals while the Panthers have more or less been reduced to playing spoiler. I'm expecting that to translate into a defensive affair. The Panthers continue to get solid goaltending from Vokoun, as he has allowed two goals or less in each of his last two games. Unfortunately, for Vokoun, he lost both those games as his team continues to have trouble scoring. Two games ago, the Panthers lost 3-1 at Tampa Bay. They followed that up by losing 3-2 here vs. Atlanta. A closer look at that game shows the score was actually 2-1 with one minute to go in the third. The Thrashers added an empty net goal and the Panthers added one with less than two seconds remaining. All the same, the final score fell below the number bringing the UNDER to 11-4 the last 15 times that the Panthers took the ice. Despite having the dangerous Alexander Ovechkin on their team, the Capitals have also been kind to under bettors of late. In fact, the UNDER is 13-5-1 their last 19 games. Part of their recent trouble has been an inability to score on the power play. Indeed, Washington is just 1-for-15 the last 16 times it had the man advantage. It's also worth noting that the Panthers have stopped their opponents' last 16 power-play chances. The most recent series meeting here snuck above the number with six goals. However, the UNDER remains a profitable 12-3-2 the last 17 series meetings here. A closer look at that February game shows that the score was tied 1-1 heading into the third period and that the winning goal came on a "lucky shot" (harmless wrist shot from the blue line that both the player and goalie admitted shouldn't have gone in) and that the sixth goal was an empty-netter. In other words, that game could have easily stayed below the number. I expect this evening's game to do so, as the UNDER improves to 15-8-2 on the season when the Capitals were coming off a game in which they scored four or more goals. *Southeast Total of the Month

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

FATJACK

Louisville +5 1/2

Opinion on UCLA under 130

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Kelso

Chairmans Club = Charlotte 10 units
Best Bet = Golden St 5 units

March Madness

50 unit Xavier
5 unit Louisville

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Michael Cannon

25 Dime

LOUISVILLE

Take the points with Louisville tonight when they take on North Carolina in the East Regional Final.

There’s no question the Tarheels are playing great basketball right now, probably the best in the entire tournament.

But if North Carolina is playing the best, Louisville is right behind them.

Rick Pitino has his team buying into his system right now and the results are apparent. The Cardinals are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 overall and 3-1 ATS as a dog this year.

The Tarheels are going to see a Louisville team that is similar to Clemson in its pressuring defense, but the Cardinals are better at it than the Tigers. If you recall, North Carolina and Clemson battled closely in each of their three meetings this year and I expect the deeper, tougher Cardinals to give them a fight tonight as well.

Pitino won’t have to worry about his team tiring out against the ultra-high tempo of the Tarheels, as the Cardinals can go 10 or 11 deep, which will help them stay close throughout.

The Cardinals also have a versatile lineup, with seven players hitting 3-pointers in the opener against Boise State and eight against Oklahoma.

Looking back at those Clemson games, North Carolina turned the ball over a whopping 59 times in the three meetings, and Louisville figures to force its share tonight.

There’s no doubt North Carolina is a great team, but with the Cardinals battle-tested having played a rough Big East schedule, I don’t see them pulling away tonight.

This game could go down to the last possession, so the points are definitely the play.

Take Louisville plus the number as they stay within the spread tonight.

10 Dime
XAVIER

Take the points with Xavier tonight when they take on Ucla in the West Regional Final.

This is another case of the linemaker overvaluing the Bruins, as they’ve struggled to put teams away in the tournament.

If Ucla let Western Kentucky back in the game after leading by 21 points at halftime, I doubt they’ll pull away from an experienced, balanced Musketeers squad.

Xavier has five different players averaging double-digits in scoring this year. Most of them can hit from beyond the arc, and Josh Duncan is physical enough to hang with Kevin Love inside.

What’s more, Xavier is a good foul-shooting team that won’t waste points when they toe it up from the line.

Xavier may not hail from a dominant conference, but they did record 11 wins this year against teams in the Top 50 in RPI rankings.

I respect the job Ben Howland does with the Bruins, especially on the defensive end, but the fact remains this team doesn’t have a go-to scorer besides Love, and if push comes to shove Ucla will struggle from the perimeter. Josh Shipp has been in an extended shooting slump which will hinder the Bruins in crucial late-game possessions.

Xavier is quick enough and does a good enough job on the boards to stay close tonight.

Take the points with Xavier as they stay within the number.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Dominic David:

3* Over UCLA/Xavier

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Dixon Saturday (In Order): (Apologies, short on time, can't post his analysis)

1)Under (154.5) Louisville vs North Carolina
2)UCLA -6 vs Xavier
3)Louisville +5.5 vs North Carolina

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Tony George

Golden State +7.5

The Warriors can score and I like Baron Davis up top in this one, we all know Iverson plays little dfense.  This should be a shootout with scorers all over the floor.  The KEY in this game is Golden States ability to hit the offensive glass better, Denver is lazy on defense and neither team plays much of it.  That will keep the high scoring Warriors in it till the end.

Play on Golden State

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

King Creole

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS plus the points

Once again, we're 'Back on the BOBBIES'... who wrap up a pretty good western road trip. We' used 'em on Wednesday night as our 4* DOG Game of the Month over the La Lakers.... and they won OUTRIGHT by 13 points as underdogs of +13 points (ATS win of 26 points). They also won LAST NIGHT over the Seattle Sonics. We aslo get to fade a Trailblazers team that's basically cashed it in for the year.... and are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games. They're also 2-10 ATS in their last 12 roles as favorites.

Portland just got their asses handed to them by the Golen State Warriors on Thursday night, and that's the area that we start our querying in.

So far this season, NBA teams are 7-16-1 ATS when playing off a ROAD loss to the Golden State Warriors.... 2-10 ATS when also off an ATS loss.... and a PERFECT 0-4 ATS at HOME.

Meanwhile, NBA underdogs of 6 < points are 5-1 ATS this season when playing off a ROAD win vs the Seattle Supersonics (BOBCATS).

Now let's review the NO rest situation for Charlotte:

So far this season, NBA road teams on SATURDAY playing with NO rest are a PERFECT 5-0 ATS when playing off BB SU wins (BOBCATS) vs any opponent playing off a DD SU loss (Blazers).

As mentioned above, the Bobcats conclude their 4-game road trip tonight. Since February 1st, NBA teams are 6-1-1 ATS on the road off a SU road win.... a SU road win... and a SU road loss (BOBCATS).

Portland is off a couple of wacky games in which they lost by DOUBLE DIGITS.... and won by DOUBLE DIGITS.

In the 2007-08 NBA season, HOME teams are a PERFECT 0-5 ATS off a SU loss of 15+ points....and a SU win of 15+ points (Blazers).... vs any opponent playing off BB SU wins (BOBCATS).

The Blazers are on a current 4-game 'UNDER' streak.

So far this season, NBA home favs are 1-6 ATS off 4 or more 'UNDERS' in a row vs any opponent off BB SU wins.

Here's the clincher: It's gone and amazing 1-19 ATS in the last 3 1/2 seasons

NBA favorites with 1+ days rest off a DOUBLE DIGIT road loss in which they attempted at least ten 3-pointers and made at least HALF of 'em (Blazers).

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Larry Ness

DET -7.0 vs CLE

The Pistons have already clinched their fourth straight division title (and sixth in seven years) plus at 51-21, still have an outside chance to catch the Celtics (57-15) for the NBA's best record. However, the way the Celtics looked against the Suns and Hornets, I think making up six games on Boston between now and April 16 is highly unlikely. The Cavs enter this game 40-32 but have lost five straight on the road (1-4 ATS) since winning Mar 5 in Madison Square Garden against the Knicks (does that win really count in the standings?). The Cavs haven't played since losing at home on Wednesday to the Hornets, 100-99. David West scored with 0.6 seconds remaining in that game, after LeBron (30.7-8.1-.3) had given the Cavs a 99-98 lead with 7.7 seconds left. However, that's the way things have gone lately for Cleveland. Guard Gibson (11.5)  missed that game with a sprained ankle and Ben Wallace missed with back problems. Wallace is expected to miss again but Gibson, who has been out since Feb 20, is supposed to play tonight. Detroit's leading scorer, Rip Hamilton (17.7), has missed the last three games with a sore left hip but the latest reports have him back in the Pistons' lineup tonight. I'll note that Aaron Afflalo (3.4), who started in place of the injured Richard Hamilton on Thursday, scored a career-high 15 points. Detroit is 29-6 SU at home this season (21-14 ATS), outscoring opponents by an average of about 11.5 PPG. The Pistons won't forget LY's playoff loss to the Cavs for a long time (lost four straight after taking a 2-0 series lead!) and will also remember losing at Cleveland not too long ago (Mar 19), 89-73. Lay the points with Detroit.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Triple Threat Sports

Golden State (+) over Denver

This is a BIG TIME battle for Western playoff positioning, and as such we expect a close, hard fought contest, making the points the play in this one.


Scott Rickenbach

1* (regular play) Utah Blaze (-) vs Georgia

The Blaze are coming off of yet another loss last week. However, other than an 8 point road loss note how tight Utah's defeats have been. Their other three losses have come by a combined 7 points. This Blaze team has certainly been on the cusp of breaking out of their slump and this week they will do it. They will be facing a Georgia team that lost so much offensive talent from last season that it just doesn't have the pieces necessary to get the job done on the road here. The Force managed one win this season and it was a solid one at home. However, their other three losses have come by an average margin of 12 points per defeat.The Force have played decent defense at times but, even on that side of the ball, Georgia has shown weakness and that's something Utah can expoit at home. QB Joe Germaine is a solid signal caller and he's been coming up with some solid performances this season. That will continue here. The Blaze can step up on defense and make some key stops in this game and that will be the difference as the offenses favor Utah in this one. As long as the Blaze defense comes to play (and at home with an 0-4 record how could they not), Germaine will lead the way to a solid home victory. Play Utah minus the points as a regular selection.


GMC NHL Selection

Ottawa @ Boston
PLAY ON BOSTON

After blowing another lead in Buffalo last night, and being outplayed throughout the game, we note they will also be without scoring play maker Corey Stillman. Boston fighting for there play off lives on home ice, winners of 2 in a row take advantage of the hurting and inconsistent Sens squad.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Valley Sports

3* LA Clippers
3* LAC/Mem over
3* North Carolina
3*NC/Louis under
3*UCLA
3*UCLA/Xav over
2* Golden St
2*Portland

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Phoenix Suns -6

I know the Suns just played last night, but I don't see fatigue as a major issue against a terrible Nets squad.  A big win over Phily gives the Suns some nice momentum heading into this one and I think we're going to see Phoenix go on another nice little run here.  The Suns are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite,  5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win, 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.  The Nets are 5-21-2 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5, and 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 vs. Western Conference.  The Nets played last night also and I think fatigue will be a much bigger factor for them as they don't have the depth of Phoenix.  Lay the points

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on Charlotte Bobcats +6

The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog period.  The Bobcats are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. the NBA Northwest and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Trail Blazers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.  Because Portland has a good home record, they are being overvalued here despite the fact that they haven't played that well in the second half of the season.  Charlotte has rattled off back-to-back road wins and I like its momentum to continue in this one.  Take the points.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Priceless Picks

1 Unit on Denver Nuggets -7

The Nuggets are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference, and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Warriors are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win of more than 10 points, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs. Western Conference, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Northwest, and 8-27 ATS in their last 35 games following a SU win.  The Warriors are just 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Denver.  The Nuggets are very very solid at home.  We'll lay the points.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

THE LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR)

TAMPA vs PHILADELPHIA
Play: TAMPA BAY +9.5 (ARENA FOOTBALL)


SAN JOSE vs KANSAS CITY
Play: KANSAS CITY +11 (ARENA FOOTBALL)


XAVIER vs UCLA
Play: XAVIER vs UCLA OVER 130 (CBB)

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

CALIFORNIA SPORTS

5* CLIPPERS OVER

4* Ucla

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