Friday Service Plays

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Great Lakes

Stanford vs Texas
Play on: Texas Longhornes

The Texas Longhornes are 4-2 ATS in tournament games this year, and 3-0 ATS when playing on Friday nights this year while the Stanford Cardinals are 5-8 ATS after a non-conference game this year, and 6-10 ATS when playing in March the last three years. We look for the Texas Longhornes to roll over the Stanford Cardinals for the ATS Win & cover tonight.

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Cappers Access

Stanford

Villanova

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Cajun-Sports

Washington Wizards vs Sacramento Kings

Rating: THREE-Star (Ratings from 1 to 6 Units)

Selection: WASHINGTON WIZARDS +2.5

Analysis: The Kings will play host to the surging Wizards at Arco on Friday night and in most cases since their loss to these Wizards back on December 15th 92 to 79 you would lean towards a little revenge for the Kings. Well, like I said in most cases you would but not in this one, the Wizards have won five straight and posted a 4-1 ATS record in this series including two in a row at Arco Arena. The Wizards have not only played well against the Kings but they have defeated the Celtics twice in 3 days back in January. They have recently knocked off the Magic, Raptors, Hornets and came within one point of the Suns. The Kings are struggling with injury issues which will pose a depth problem especially since they are playing their fifth game in eight days. On the playoff front the Wizards are chasing Cleveland for a home court and they realize how important each game is this time of the year. We should get a solid effort from the Wizards as they have the healthier team and more motivation. Data base research has uncovered a few negative situations that the Kings qualify in. The Kings off an ATS loss and going under in their last game now a non-conference home favorite they are 12-26-2 ATS. Sacramento coming off an ATS loss and going under at home in their last game now a non-conference home favorite are 6-18 ATS. One final situation that applies to the Kings as they are 2-10 ATS off a SU win and ATS loss while going under in their last game and now installed as a non-conference home favorite. The Wizards when coming in off a SU win and are now in a game with a line range of 2 to 4 points are 69-44-3 ATS. We also found that teams who are off a SU win and an ATS loss in their last game and are now playing on the non-conference road with a line range of 2 to 4 points are 64-42-4 ATS. Washington has also been money for their backers when installed as a road underdog of less than 6 points this season posting a record of 11-2 ATS. One final technical set to solidify our position on the Wizards, it?s a system that says to Play Against NBA home teams where the line is +3 to -3 in a game involving two teams (+/- 3 points per game differential) after 42 or more games, after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games, 58-25 ATS since 1996. Take the points here as the Washington Wizards get the call as our NBA 3* Super Situation Selection for Friday.

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KELSO STURGEON NEWSLETTER

BOSTON CELTICS by 9 over New Orleans Hornets - It's pay-back time in Boston tonight and you can bet the Celtics are primed to pull it off. These teams met last Saturday in New Orleans and the Hornets won 113-106 as a 1-point favorite. This is the third straight home game for the Boston Celtics and it must be noted they are 29-5 on the home floor. The Hornets are playing quite well, but Boston should get the money in this revenge spot.

ATLANTA HAWKS by 5 over Chicago Bulls - Despite being 30-39 at this point of the season the Atlanta Hawks are still very much alive for the eighth spot in the playoffs and, like Golden State, must wins the games it is supposed to win. The Hawks are playing their best basketball right now, stand 21-13 at home and should again bring their "A" game against a lifeless team they know they can beat. For the record, the Bulls are 11-24 on the road this season.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS by 40 over Memphis Grizzlies - There is one thing the Los Angeles Lakers are not and that is benevolent. They fire their best shot at everybody, at home or on the road, and show absolutely no mercy against the weaker teams in the NBA. In fact this is the kind of game in which the Lakers' Kobe Bryant might outscore the other team by himself. Los Angeles is 24-9 at home this season while Memphis is 5-29 on the road. There is no reason to believe this game will be close.

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Arthur Ralph

Super Pick: Kansas

900 GOLD KEY: Michigan State Over

Free play: TEXAS

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BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS

Play on: Phoenix plus over Philadelphia

To start the month off, the Sixers went out to Phoenix as a ( +9½ ) underdog, but won the whole game 119-114. The Suns were stunned to say the least, but here visitor shows off a major road loss to the Celtics up in Boston.. So in essence, this could be a tougher game for the “hot” Sixers. Phoenix is 12-5 ATS off a SU loss, while the Sixers are 12-3 ATS at home, but just 3-7 ATS on Friday’s. With Phoenix 8 of 11 ATS in the series, would not be surprised to see major Suns win!

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Jack Clayton
Orlando/Milwaukee Over


Nick Parsons
Memphis


Madduxsports
Memphis -4.5


Computer Sports
SAN ANTONIO SPURS


MIGHTY QUINN
Stanford.


ARTHUR RALPH
TEXAS


Sportsguru
Texas


Winning Way Sports
La/Utah Over


FAT JACK SPORTS
Memphis -4.5


Scott Spreitzer
Nets


MustWinSportsPicks
Montreal -1.5


Lasvegassportsadvisors
Colorado NHL


#1 Sports Free
Texas


BRW Sports Advisors
Wisconsin -4.5


VEGAS STEAMLINE
Minnesota +12.5


Razor Sharp Sports
Clippers/Jazz Over


Joe Wiz
Celtics
TWolves

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Handicapper World

Villanova +12 (HUGE)

Wisconsin -5

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BEN BURNS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

STANFORD
Game: Stanford vs. Texas
Prediction: Stanford Reason: I'm taking the points with STANFORD. Most people feel that the Longhorns will have the advantage, due to the fact that this game is being played in the state of Texas. While its true that the Longhorns will have the large majority of the fans on their side, let's remember that it's not screaming orange-clad fans that are the ones being asked to guard the Lopez brothers. As Stanford coach Trent Johnson told his team: "...the crowds get bigger and the magnitudes in question in the game gets bigger, but it's still a game itself, and your ability to relax and do what you've done all year long is going to put you in situations where you can be successful or not." Johnson's team is an experienced one and I believe that they'll respond well to the hostile crowd. Keep in mind that the Cardinal won road games at places like Arizona and Washington State, while losing in overtime at UCLA. The Cardinal was also 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in seven neutral court games with the lone SU loss coming by only three points. That was vs. UCLA in a game that was played at the Staples Center. In other words, Stanford has shown an ability to play well in road games and/or hostile 'neutral court' environments. It should also be noted that playing such a big game in front of friends and family doesn't always guarantee that these young kids will perform at a better level than normal, particularly when facing an extremely stingy Stanford defense which allows just 61 points per game. The Longhorns are a money-burning 4-11 SU/ATS the last 15 times they were "neutral court" underdogs of three points or less and an equally poor 5-12 ATS the last 17 times they were favored by four points or less overall on any court. After failing to cover vs. Miami last time out, the Longhorns are also now just 2-5-1 ATS this month. Stanford also failed to cover last time out. However, it was facing arguably a tougher opponent (Marquette instead of Miami) and I believe the fact that the Cardinal won the game without their coach (ejected in first half) will bring the team even closer together for today's huge game. Behind another big game from the Lopez twins, look for the Cardinal to 'shock' the Longhorns and their fans, advancing to the Elite 8.

WISCONSIN
Game: Davidson vs. Wisconsin
Prediction: Wisconsin Reason: I'm laying the points with WISCONSIN. Ok, by now we now we all know that Stephen Curry is pretty darn good. After sneaking by Gonzaga (the Wildcats trailed almost the entire way) the Wildcats did the unthinkable and delivered a major upset vs. a powerful Georgetown team. Keep in mind that both those wins came at Raleigh, which is very close to the Davidson campus. The Wildcats won't have that luxury today. The Hoyas knew all about Curry but were seemingly too arrogant to really believe that they could be beaten. I don't expect the Badgers to make the same mistake or have the same attitude. Not having witnessed what happened to Georgetown and not with defensive specialist Michael Flowers in the fold. Flowers has been studying Curry's every move since the minute the Wildcats knocked off the Hoyas. While Curry will obviously get his points, I believe that his overall production and shooting percentage will suffer a decline with Flowers sticking him to like glue. He's certainly not going to get some of the open looks he got in the first two games. As Flowers said about Curry: "Whether he has eight points or 12 or 34, I would want him to say he had to work for every point he got." Flowers was also quoted as saying: "Preparation for this game has been going on my whole career at Wisconsin. Hopefully, I was a good enough student of the game to make Curry react to me and make him uncomfortable and just discourage him from getting an open look." Having spent his career as Badger guarding scorers like Curry in Michigan State’s Drew Neitzel, Indiana’s Eric Gordon and former Illinois guard Dee Brown, Flowers knows what he's getting into. Keep in mind that the Badgers also faced a team with a pretty good player in their last game, as K-State's Michael Beasley is projected to go extremely high in the NBA draft. The result was a lopsided 17 point Wisconsin victory. That was the Badgers' 12th straight win with seven of the last eight of those victories coming by double-digits. Note that the well-coached Badgers are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS this season when having five or six day's rest in between games. The Wildcats have been a great story. However, all stories need to come to an end. Playing outside the state of North Carolina and against a tenacious Wisconsin defense which allows just 53.9 points per game, look for the Wildcats' winning streak and "Cinderalle story" to come to an end with the Badgers moving to 7-0 SU/ATS the last seven times they were favored by six points or less. *Sweet 16 Game of the Year

UNDER Michigan State/Memphis


NBA

SEATTLE
I'm taking the points with SEATTLE. The Sonics have quietly been playing pretty well lately, having gone 3-0 ATS their last three games. Likely 'rookie of the year,' Kevin Durant has scored at least 20 points in four consecutive games, shooting 58.8 percent from the field while making 16 of his 17 free throws. He scored 32 last time out and figures to be highly motivated here, both due to the fact that his former college team (Texas) just finished playing and also as he is still trying to lock down the league's top rookie award. The Sonics have only got a few winnable games left here at Seattle and tonight certainly represents one of them. Yes, the Bobcats come off an unlikely upset vs. the Lakers. However, they're still an awful 3-15 their last 18 on the road and an equally dismal 7-28 on the season. Not surprisingly, the Bobcats have only been listed as road favorites once in all of 2008. That was less than two weeks ago, at Memphis. The Bobcats were laying -2.5 or -3 for that game but got outscored 56-33 in the second half, en route to an 18 point loss. Despite the win over the Lakers, the Bobcats know they won't be making the playoffs. That being said, I feel that it will be difficult to get up emotionally for a road game vs. the lowly Sonics. Look for the Sonics to be the hungrier team this evening as they continue their recent improved play and earn their fourth straight cover. *Best Bet

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Beatyourbookie

CBB

100* Stanford +2
50* Davidson +4.5


NBA

50* Lakers -15

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Drew Gordon

1. 200,000* Texas

2. 50,000* Hornets

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Priceless Picks

1 Unit on Stanford/Texas OVER 135

Texas is 6-0 OVER in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.  Stanford is 10-3 OVER in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season and 9-0 OVER in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games this season.  Stanford is 8-1 OVER in all road tournament games over the last 3 seasons and 13-4 OVER NCAA tournament games since 1997.  Stanford is known for its defense but it has really picked up its scoring in the NCAA Tournament averaging 79.5 ppg.  The Horns are scoring 74.5 ppg in the Dance.  We’ll take the OVER here as these team are just too talented offensively to stifle one another.  Bet the OVER.

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Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Davidson/Wisconsin Under 126

Wisconsin is an unders machine with its ability to defend.  The Badgers have gone under the number in 8 of their last 9 games.  Wisconsin is 11-0 UNDER in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games since 1997, 6-0 UNDER when playing with 5 or 6 days rest this season, 21-8 UNDER as a favorite this season.  Davidson is 17-9 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins this season, 12-3 UNDER versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% since 1997, and 20-8 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.  Take the Under.

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Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on Kansas -11.5

Villanova is not deep enough to be able to run and gun with Kansas .  The 12-seed Wildcats have made a nice little run, but it all stops here.  Kansas has now won 9 straight games and 6 of its last 8 ATS.  Villanova is 0-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season and 0-6 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more this season.  This shows you the inconsistency of Villanova as it is unable to sustain championship-caliber play.  Kansas is 11-2 ATS after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more over the last 2 seasons and 13-6 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins this season.  The Jayhawks have been playing with a chip on their shoulder after being taken out in the Elite Eight last season.  We’ll take Kansas here as the Jayhawks put another big time beating on an opponent.

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Alex Smart

Charlotte Bobcats -3.0

Charlotte enters into this tilt , against their hosts Seattle, off a nice win against the LA Lakers last time out, by a score of 108-95, as 13 point dogs, behind a 34 point performance from Jason Richardson. I expect the Bobcats will build on the momentum, of that victory against a Sonics team that has lost 12 of their L/13 and 6 of their L/7 at home in the Emerald City. Final notes & Key Trends: Charlotte is 21-10 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. Play on the Bobcats to grab the cash 

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Power Play of the day

Nova/Kansas over 143.5

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DOC'S

6 Unit Play.Take Wisconsin -4½ over Davidson
The Badgers continue to get it done and will not let a one trick pony beat them. They faced a much better team in Kansas State last Saturday with the likely No. 1 overall pick in the NBA draft. Beasley got his points, but that game was never in doubt, as Bucky took control early and never looked back. Sound familiar with Davidson and Stephen Curry? Davidson played outstanding in the first two games but keep in mind those games were played in North Carolina and Detroit ain’t in NC. The Badgers always travel well and they will have a huge crowd edge playing @ Ford Field. Curry will get his points, but will have to work hard for them and there is just too much balance on Wisconsin for the Wildcats to stay in this game. The Badgers have never lost to a mid-major under Bo Ryan in the tournament and there is only one way to beat them. You have to have better talent and Davidson does not fit that criteria.

4 Unit Play.Take Texas -2 over Stanford
This is a great match-up between two contrasting styles with Texas dominating the guards and Stanford have the edge inside. We will side with the Horns since they will have a huge advantage playing this game in Houston. Stanford has not had much success recently in the tournament and they have maxed out on their potential this year by getting to the Sweet 16. Texas is still hungry for more and remember this team made the Final Four when the Regional was in Texas as well. Texas marches on and we collect big in the process.

4 Unit Play.Take Memphis -4½ over Michigan State
Michigan State is a tournament team but I have no reason to believe Memphis will fall before the elite eight. The Tigers are looking to make their third straight trip to the elite eight and should have no problem knocking out the Spartans, who have too many holes to fill. Memphis has a much deeper bench and will not let Neitzel get off his shots. Both teams will reach the sixties in scoring but it will be the Tigers that pull away late to win it by double-digits. This is the first team Michigan State has played in the tournament that can actually score points at will.

4 Unit Play.Take Over 135½ in Michigan State vs. Memphis
This play coincides with the Memphis play and we like Memphis to win so the like play with that is then with the over. Maybe look at a one unit play with Memphis and the over in a parlay as well.

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Ferringo

4-Unit Play. Take Texas (-2) over Stanford
1-Unit Play. Take Texas (-130) over Stanford
There are a lot of reasons why I like this play. First, the NCAA Tournament is all about guard play. And no one has better guards than the Longhorns. The Cardinal had all kinds of trouble with Marquette's excellent backcourt in the second round. Well, Texas's guards are more talented and UT can do similar things with its big men as far as inverting them on the perimeter. Second, guys like Connor Atchley and Damien James can really punish opponents with their 3-point ability. And if the Lopez Bros. are forced out onto the perimeter that will open up the basket for D.J. Augustin. Third, the Longhorns are a much, much more athletic team than Stanford and I think they will be able to hold their own on the boards. They should also be able to lock down on the perimeter and harass Stanford guards into turnovers.

Texas has a huge home-court edge here and should put forward an inspired effort in front Houston's pro-Longhorns crowd. Stanford is just 1-3 SU in its last four road games and 4-4 in its last eight in hostile territory. And make no mistake: this is a road game. Stanford lost to UCLA three times this year. The Longhorns beat the Bruins. In California. Texas has also taken it to bigger teams in the Big 12; teams like Kansas State (Beasley and Walker), Oklahoma (The Griffin's), Kansas (three NBA-caliber forwards), and Texas A&M. They aren't going to be awestruck or overwhelmed by the Lopez Twins. Further, Stanford is notorious for NCAA Tournament flameouts. The Pac-10 has been a bust in the Big Dance this year while the Big 12 has really stepped forward.

So, why isn't this my NCAA GOTY? Mainly because I can't shake that Wisconsin loss out of my head for the Longhorns. The Badgers were able to beat up UT on the inside. But that was also when A.J. Abrams was mired in a shooting slump. A&M and Kansas also have beaten the Longhorns mainly because of their size. But Stanford has lost to Oregon and Siena. Those are two small, quick teams that aren't nearly as good as the Horns. So I'm going big on Texas. Now, the way things have been going, Augustin and A.J. Abrams will combine to go 7-for-30 and the Longhorns will lose by 10. But I have to follow my instincts here and say that the better team (and coach) will advance.

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 137 Memphis vs. Michigan State
I think this is going to be a half-court game and I think it will be a tight one. Memphis can harass the Spartans on the perimeter, and if this one becomes a grinder I look for it to stay in the 60's.

1-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take Kansas (-6.5) over Villanova
The Wildcats are shaky. Shaky, shaky, shaky. They were getting absolutely mauled by both Clemson and Georgetown in the first half of two of their past three games. Sure, we could be set for a classic Bill Self dud here. But the talent disparity is simply so large here that I think the Jayhawks can lay a big number on 'Nova.

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