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Thursday Service Plays
Re: Thursday Service Plays
VEGAS RUNNERS 5*
Xavier / W.Virginia Under 136.5
SWEET 16 (5*) GAME of the YEAR
We CASHED our 5* TEASER & 5* SIDE Wager....and how Ironic that our Biggest Bet of the 3rd Round is on a Total...I will be straight with you guys like I always am, and tell you that once again this was a very hard decision...and I don't mean finding the play...but instead, narrowing it down to only ONE 5* Wager, because not only did I like more Tonight, but we have 2 Games going Tomorrow that we feel extremely strong about...but first lets get to Tonight's 5* Total...
Right off the bat I will tell you that we make this game much lower, and by much lower, I mean about 132...and for a game of this magnitude, that is a huge discrepency...so the next job was to find out why...
The most obvious, was that the oddsmaker was expected to see a lot of OVER work for the books come game-day, and I can tell you with certainty that he wasn't mistaken because every single book that we have spoken to is getting hammered on this Total as if the game was already Over...no pun intended....so we can now understand why they chose to send it out higher than we expected, and that was to protect the client as much as possible....
Then we had to go ahead and break the game down and although I won't bore you with all the same stats that you can uncover anywhere, I will tell you that the Tempo that both of these teams play is perfect for an Under...let me explain...this is the one match-up this evening where both teams have an either very slow or fast tempo as opposed to having a contrast in styles...and I have found by going back through past Tournament games and that combination has served us well in the past....we found that BOTH teams were in the Bottom 1/3 of all NCAA Programs, coming in at 213 and 226 respectively...
Then we see that although both teams have competant offenses, the bottom line is that their defenses have really come on in the Tourney...and although Xavier has played some of the best defensive BB in the nation, W Virginia has definately learned to play exceptions D also...both clubs rank in the Top 25 in defense, and I also like that neither will have any real size advantage in this one....
Now this number has been slowly creeping up and I will tell you that the move is based on all of the public money that continues to come in and not a sign of the smart money...solets go ahead and take a stand on the UNDER and see if we can make it 3 STRAIGHT 5* WINNERS
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