Thursday Service Plays

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Priceless Picks

1 Unit on West Virginia -1

West Virginia is one of the best ATS NCAA Tourney teams we have ever seen.  Oddsmakers have rightly favored the Mountaineers following impressive wins over stories team Arizona and Duke.  Coach Huggins has his boys believing and I like them to continue on to the round of 8.  WVU is 12-0 ATS in all NCAA tournament games since 1997, 8-1 ATS in post-season tournament games over the last 3 seasons, 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 2 seasons, and 17-5 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.  I like the more talented team from a tougher conference to prevail here.

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Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Washington State/UNC Under 143

There’s no doubt that the Cougars will play good enough defense on Carolina to keep this one under the number.  Washington State has gone under the number in each of its first two tourney games, holding its opponents to 40.5 ppg.  Washington State knows its only chance to beat Carolina is to slow the game down.  The Cougars have stuck to this style of play through and through the past two seasons and I don’t see them deviating from it now.  Washington State 18-6 UNDER after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 3 seasons, 28-10 UNDER in non-conference games since 1997, and 28-14 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive unders since 1997.  Take the Under.

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The Sports Executives

UNC -8

Louisville -3

UCLA -12

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CAJUN SPORTS COMP

Play: 3* Denver -7.5

Comments: This game is extremely important for both of these teams as they fight for one of the final playoff spots in the West. With each team having only eleven games left this game becomes a huge game for the winner as they have a leg up owning the tie-breaker in case they finish the regular season with identical records. It certainly wont hurt the Nuggets feelings any to see the team leader for Dallas Dirk Nowitzki sitting on the bench for this contest as he has scored 32 points per game and snatched 12 boards against the Nuggets this season. The Nuggets have been playing well of late and taking care of their backers as well, they have covered 10 of their last 12 games heading into tonight’s match up with Dallas. This series has been dominated against the spread lately by the host team as they have covered 8 of the last 9 series meetings. Another positive note for the Nuggets is the fact that Dallas has not defeated a team with a winning record since acquiring Jason Kidd. A closer look at the scoring performance of the Denver Nuggets we see over their last 15 games they have averaged 119 points per game, this triggers a negative situation for Dallas because we know they are 44-111 ATS since 1996 in road games when they allow 105 or more points. We don’t expect Dallas to be able to hold this Nuggets team under that number and if they cannot their chances of covering the spread are not very high based on their past performance in this situation. The Mavericks coming off four straight ATS losses now installed as a conference underdog of 7 to 10 points are 0-5 ATS. The Nuggets have excelled when coming off road trips under the right situation, if they are coming in off five straight road games now playing a conference home game they are 9-1-1 ATS. Finally we have a few league wide angles that apply to Denver. The first tells us that teams that won SU in their last three road games now at home are 134-86-5 ATS. If they are a favorite in that game they are 193-137-7 ATS. Teams that won both SU and ATS in three straight road games and are now at home they are 83-49-3 ATS. If these teams are installed as a favorite coming off three SU/ATS wins they are 104-75-3 ATS. The last league wide angle tells us that teams coming off three SU/ATS road wins and now installed as a home favorite are 71-44-2 ATS. Combine all of our technical, fundamental and situational factors and Denver gets the call as our 3* NBA Super Situation Winner.

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Right Angle Sports (RAS)

West Virginia vs Xavier +1

Xavier has set a record for most wins in school history and have been equally impressive in and out of conference play. With three senior starters and five upperclassmen in the top six including two D-1 transfers, they are one of the oldest and most experienced teams left in the field. The Musketeers have the most balanced scoring team in the country with six players averaging between 9.8ppg and 12.1ppg. All six have terrific one on one ability but also play with great teamwork and chemistry. Xavier has athleticism at every position enabling them to play great defense, rebound, and get to most loose balls. Guard Stanley Burrell is the reigning A-10 defensive player of the year and will likely be assigned to shutdown WVU playmaker Nichols or sharpshooter Ruoff, each of who is critical to the Mountaineer attack. West Virginia was fortunate to shoot lights out (57.9%) from 3 point range vs Arizona in round one win. In round two Duke shot miserably (5 for 22 from 3) and WVU got to every loose ball (+20 rebound margin) to survive. West Virginia has been foul prone, committing 3 more fouls than their opponent in each of the first two rounds, despite holding late leads and winning both. This is something that Xavier (75.5% FT shooting, 14th best in the country) will take advantage of. West Virginia has overachieved all season but will find a tough matchup here.Take the small dog.

Play: Xavier +1


Stanford vs Texas -2

Rick Barnes mentioned early in the season that this Longhorn team had a chance to be very good and they certainly have not disappointed. Texas earned impressive non-conference wins vs #1 seed UCLA and vs #2 seed Tennessee, both away from home, even before rotation freshman forward Gary Johnson was cleared to play. Johnson also sat out recent Big 12 championship loss to Kansas that went down to the wire. He returned to play a limited role vs Miami Fla last week and will be closer to full strength Friday. Texas not only has one of the best backcourts in the nation, which is critical at this time of year, but also has above average quickness at nearly every position. Both of these strengths will enable them to exploit Stanford's two biggest weaknesses, backcourt play and team speed. Texas can also neutralize Stanford's size advantage with their ability to play zone defense at a high level, having done so throughout the regular season. Huge 6-10/300 reserve center Pittman has emerged as a factor in recent games and will take up space inside for parts of the game. Stanford played no one in non-conference play. Of their four wins over the Sagarin top 25, three came vs slow Washington State, and the fourth came in their last game, a one point OT thriller over Marquette played in Anaheim. Stanford more or less has given up on their reserve guards as starters Johnson and Goods each played 40+ minutes vs Marquette. Despite the final score of last game, Texas has coasted through the first two rounds and now will have the huge advantage of playing just 2 1/2 hours from campus. Give the points.

Play: Texas -2


No Total Plays for Thursday

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Moneylockoftheday

Digger's Pick
Louisville/Tennessee Under 146

Hawker's Pick
Ucla -12

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DOC'S

4 Unit Play.Take North Carolina -8½ over Washington State
My feeling all week long was that a 10-0 run by Carolina will put this game away, as the Cougars simply cannot score enough points to stay in this game. This game reminds me a lot of Texas/Oklahoma from the Big XII Tournament, as the Sooners are a very similar team to WSU. Carolina has been on fire of late and if they make jump shot they cannot be beaten, as this opens up the lane for Tyler Hansbrough. This is very unfamiliar territory for the Cougars and Carolina expects to be here each and every year. Then bring in the fact that this game takes place in Charlotte, a place Carolina won three games at two weeks ago and will have a very favorable edge with the crowd, since WSU does not travel well anyway. Carolina marches on with another double-digit victory.

4 Unit Play.Take Xavier +1 over West Virginia
The Sweet 16 opens up with an intriguing match-up between Xavier and West Virginia. Believe it or not, it is the third seed that is flying under the radar, as they enter this affair as a slight underdog. West Virginia beat two big names teams to get here, but those squads had down years, with Arizona losing their coach and Duke not having an inside presence. Xavier has better guards then the Mountaineers and that is usually what gets it done in the tournament. Making a jump shot or two will propel the Musketeers to victory, something Duke could not do whatsoever.

4 Unit Play.Take Under 133½ in Western Kentucky vs. UCLA
The Bruins have been living well lately with help from the officials, but all season they have been plagued by one problem. They are not a good shooting team and have had trouble scoring points all season long. That being said, they play tremendous defense and should be able to frustrate this mid-major opponent on Thursday. All this leads me to believe that the best bet in this contest lies with the under. Neither team will reach 70 points and the Hilltoppers will be lucky to see 60.

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FERRINGO

3-Unit Play. Take Washington State +9 over North Carolina

Note: I recommend buying the half-point from 8.5. However, if you wait until we get closer to tip-off you won't have to. This line is going to move and it's going to move at least half a point. I do endorse the play at 8.5 as a 3-Unit pick.

Let’s try to fade the public here. There are a lot of reasons not to like Wazzou in this spot, but time and time again I’ve run into this situation in sports: flashy, offensive-oriented, public favorite plays rough-around-the-edges, gutsy, defensive team. More times than not the defensive team (and underdog) cashes, with the Super Bowl being the most recent example. I think we have a similar situation here. I really don’t see any way that UNC can play as well as it did last weekend again tonight against Washington State. I mean, they shot 70 percent for the game for crying out loud. That doesn’t happen twice in a row against quality competition late in the year. Washington State is a funky team, and their style is difficult to adjust to the first time you see them. The Cougars have played the best of the best over the past two years and performed impressively. I think they will come to play and keep this one close. The keys will be how Wazzou’s perimeter trio of Rochestie-Low-Weaver shoot from deep. They hit some shots, they can win this game. If they don’t it will be Arkansas all over again.

1.5-Unit Play. Take Tennessee +3 over Louisville
I’m going with the And-1 Mix Team. Chris Lofton will play, and if he doesn’t it’s even better. I can’t tell you how many times over the last month a team lost its top scorer and went on an ATS spree. The Cardinals play an aggressive zone but I think that will lead to plenty of open looks for UT. I think that the Vols will play their best game of the tourney because they can come into this game as an underdog. They have more talent, and they look like the best team in the country when they are motivated (which rarely happens). Like UNC, I think that Louisville peaked in the opening weekend. They shoot 35 percent from 3-point land on the season, but shot 51.2 percent last weekend. Tennessee doesn’t defend the basket, but they defend the perimeter. I think they can dig in and get enough buckets to handle the Cardinals, whose lack of a go-to scorer is going to be their undoing.

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STRIKE POINT SPORT'S

6-Unit Play (Game of the Month).Take Xavier +1 over West Virginia

There's just something about this X-Men team that I really like in their match-up with the Mountaineers. Xavier has a very healthy offensive balance, but what's even better is that they boast it both inside and out. Six players average double figures, and anyone of them can lead the team in scoring. Point guard Drew Lavender and Stanley Burrell form a nice starting backcourt, while the foursome of Josh Duncan, Derrick Brown, B.J. Raymond and C.J. Anderson call all attack from the perimeter and down low. Basically, you can't leave any one area uncovered against this talented team. We saw what happened to West Virginia when some of its starters got into foul trouble: they become purely a perimeter team. I think Xavier will give them trouble all over the court, and this A-10 team will find itself in the Elite Eight with a strong win in Phoenix.

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Jimmy Thompson

Louisville -3

If your were asking us right now who the best team in the country is it would be tough to say between UNC and Louisville. The unfortunate thing here is that if they meet it will be 2 rounds before they should. Just by the line you can see that Louisville is more respected by the oddsmakers than Tennessee. There are a couple of reason for this, one is that Louisville has been rolling the past for more than a month and as 2 weeks ago they were a very possible number 1 seed, but losses to Georgetown and Pitt stalled those hopes. Meanwhile Tennessee, although with a signature win over Memphis they have been less than dominant in conference and during this tournament so they appear ripe to get beat. Louisville's defense has been awesome in their first 2 games and that defense will be the difference in what will be a fast paced game. The Cardinals have better interior players and if Smith shoots the ball well they could win this game big. We like Louisville to advance with a 80-?6 win!

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Bob Balfe

NBA
Pistons -22 over Heat

College Basketball
Louisville -3 over Tennessee
There are always those teams with talent such as Tennessee. However, they seem to get sloppy at times and they don't seem to have the makeup to advance any further. There is no doubt they have talent, but you must play as a team late in the tourney. Louisville deserves to be the favorite even though they are seeded 3rd and Tennessee is seeded 2nd. Look for Louisville to actually win pretty easy tonight.

Xavier +1 over West Virginia
WVU always puts together a team with heart, but they will be going against a great Xavier Defense and a team that is hungry to advance after many let downs in the tourney in the past few years. These teams basically are mirror images of each other. I like that fact that Xavier has gotten down by double digits in both tourney games and clawed their way back. The Xavier defense should take over down the stretch.

UCLA -12 over Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky is the fan favorite Cinderella this season, but UCLA is among the best teams in the nation. If this was a regular season game back in January the Bruins would be favored by 25. UCLA has the edge in every category and after last weeks near loss to Texas A&M this team will not allow a smaller and less talented opponent to hang around. Western Kentucky did numbers to their program by playing so well in the tournament, but the tour ends here!

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Analyst: Stu Feiner
15,000 Dime Lock #2


15,000 DIME BANKROLL BUILDER
LOCK OF THE TOURNAMENT
#2 IN A ROW

Tennessee +3 over Louisville

5000 DIME BONUS LOCK

Xavier +1 over West Virginia

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Analyst: Eddie Roman
7500 Unit Sweet 16 System Stat Game of my Career #18


7500 Unit Sweet 16 System Stat Game of my Career #16

West Virginia Mountaineers -1 over Xavier

Back by 2:30 pm est with analysis



Analyst: Damon Roberts
Personal Game of the Tournament


10,000 Dime Personal Game

UCLA -12 over Western Kentucky

also

3000 Dime - Tennessee +3 over Louisville

3000 Dime - Xavier +1 over West Virginia

3000 Dime - North Carolina -8 over Washington State

I'll be back with analysis by 3pm EST





Analyst: Bobby Esposito
10,000 Dime Parlay Lock


10,000 DIME PARLAY

Xavier +1.5 over West Va.

Over 134 (W.Virginia - Xavier)

3000 DIME BONUS LOCKS

N. Carolina -8.5 over Wash. St.

Denver -8 over Dallas Mav's

I'll be back with analysis by 3pm EST



Analyst: Jack Burnet
15,000 Dime Sweet Sixteen Lock


ONE AND ONLY 15,000 DIME
WEET SIXTEEN LOCK

Tennessee +3 over Louisville

also

Xavier +1 over West Virginia
UCLA -12 over Western Kentucky

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Wunderdog

Washington State at North Carolina
Pick: North Carolina -8.5

The Tar Heels haven't just won this year, they have won big. They have an amazing 26 double-digit wins on the season and are absolutely clicking on offense right now. Washington State is capable of slowing the pace, but what happens if they fall behind? They are not a good team playing from behind especially against a Carolina team that can hang 10 points on them in a matter of a minute and a half. The Heels have gone over 80 points in 29 games this season. Washington State is out-manned at all five positions and equally as much on the bench. It's going to take one big Carolina run to get Washington St. out of their comfort zone,and when it does happen this could easily turn into a 20+ point game,and we will back the high-scoring Heels to win big here.

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Insider Sports Report

CBB
W. Virginia -1

NBA
Denver -7 over Dallas

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Frank Rosenthal

NBA Hoops

Pistons-21 Sb
Over 178.5 Sb+
Warriors-10 Sb+
Under 209.5 Sb+
Nuggets-8.5 Sb
Under 217.5 Sb+

College Hoops

Unc-8 Sb
Over 140 Sb+
Louisville-2 Sb+
Over 145 Sb
Xavier+1.5 Sb
Western Ky+12.5 Sb

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LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR)

WASHINGTON STATE vs NORTH CAROLINA
Play: WASHINGTON STATE vs NORTH CAROLINA OVER 142


WEST VIRGINIA vs XAVIER
Play: WEST VIRGINIA vs XAVIER OVER 134 


LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): NEW JERSEY vs NY RANGERS
Play: NEW JERSEY vs NY RANGERS UNDER 5 

This is an alternative selection but by no means a weak one as these scoring trends are too hard to pass up in this matchup. Under is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Devil games. 17 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL. We don't care what sport we dip in as long as it's a strong play and can make our clients money.

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Fairway 20* NCAA Tourney GOY: XAVIER


Regular plays

Xavier/WVU UNDER

Western KY

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Vegas Runner 2* Play of day

DAL 9.0 vs  DEN

I would also suggest holding off on making your wager until closer to Tip-Off because with Dirk out and this being a TNT Game, I don't see this line moving in any other direction but up, and we will adjust as it calls for, NOW UP to +9 and may even keep going...and like I said, we will wait it out because it really shouldn't come back down

Now at first glance you may think that Dallas is a team that you don't want to be backing, especially with their main man out...but these situations have provided a lot of value in the past and I believe that this match-up is no different....and always remember that when you back a Dog, especially when you are receiving this many points, although it would be nice to see them come through and win the game....that really isn't what you need to take place to CASH a ticket, instead you only need your team to go out there and give you a strong effort for 48min...and if they can do that, more times than not you will get the money...just like when you are able to get your money in when you believe that you are getting the best of it...and Tonight, I think that side is Dallas....

As stated above, with a dog of this magnitude you need effort and with Dirk out, I think that Avery Johnson will be able to get that effort from his team, and make his players step it up a notch and make up for the loss...the other thing that we can't forget is that this will definately be a game that has a Play-Off atmosphere because there is just so much on the line for both clubs and believe me, after reading the Dallas Paper this morning, the Mavs definately are aware of just how important this game will be...

Here are a few of the things said...Johnson said, "We talk about how its just another game, well we're not saying that anymore. We're playing single elimination, thats the way we have to look at it"...Jason Kidd mentioned how even though they just went 1-3 on their homestand, these next few games will be the most important of the season and they can easily make this a good week by going out on the road and getting it done....Dampier talked about how Denver is trying to get to the Play-Offs and how they need to do everything in their power not to let that happen...the team even went on to say that they talked about this one way back in January and knew it would have huge implications...

For Dallas, a win here would give the Mavs a 3 game lead and the tie-breaker against Denver since they7 split their first 2 games this season...and even though winning tonight in Denver isn't going to be easy, the stage is definately set for us to see a war and to get the best that both teams have to offer and I really do feel that if we get that, Denver is not 8+ points better than the Mavs, even on their home-court...

On the road Dallas allows just as many points as they do overall so even though they aren't at .500, we do know that its not the defense that suffers when they play at other arenas...and that is very important because right now Dallas is playing excellent defense, allowing only 38.7% FG's...they also don't turn the ball over on the road, averaging only 12 TO per game, the same as they do overall...and finally although its been the offense that hasn't been able to score enough to win lately, tonight they face a defense which has allowed 52.7% FG their L/5 Games and in 2 of those they allowed OVER 60%...and when we look at what the Mavs were doing when they WON 5 Straight, prior to the 1-3 homestand...they had shot 50%+ from the field in all but one of those wins...

Overall, I really feel that this is just way too many points to be giving a team in a game that is so important to both clubs and if Denver feels some pressure, it is not an easy number to cover and asking them to win by double digits, which is more or less what you are asking, is just to much...and as we touched upon above, we may be able to get even more points because the public money will definately pour in heavily on the home team and with this being the last TNT game of the night, it should receive the majority of the volume in the NBA Tonight....

Lets go ahead and take Dallas and the Points as the Thursday Night, NBA on TNT 2* PLAY of the DAY and look for the Mavs to keep it extremely close and possibly give themselves an opportunity to get the WIN in the end, which wouldn't suprise me at all...and I'm sure the books would also love it, killing all parlay and teaser wagers that will depend on Denver covering the number.

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ER Sports Playmaker: Tenn Vols

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