Thursday Service Plays

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Karl Garrett

Tonight in the Big Dance, lay the wood with the Tar Heels, as you talk about a stacked deck!

North Carolina got to play their first two games in nearby Raliegh, and now they get to play this game in nearby Charlotte. UNC has cracked the century mark in both of their tourney games, and not surprisingly they have covered both games.

Washington State can boast a pair of lop-sided wins of their own, and they have been doing it with stiffling defense, as the Cougars have allowed an average of just 40.5 points per game in this Big Dance.

The G-Man doubts State will be able to hold the Heels in check, and it is important to note that North Carolina has covered in 7 of their last 8 games against the PAC 10.

Have to side with the overall #1 seed in this spot tonight, as North Carolina takes this one by double-digits.


2* NORTH CAROLINA (on a 1* to 5* basis)

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Drew Gordon

Yes, they fooled around with American. Yes, they had trouble with an up-and-down Butler team. Yes, they have issues at the point guard position. But let me be one of the first to warn you... Do not sleep on this Volunteers squad, as they are more than capable of winning this game and here's why:

First, anyone who's watched Tennessee play this season, knows they have a tendecy to play down to their oppostion, and subsequently "get up" for their tougher opponents. The Volunteers were underdogs 4 times this season (at Memphis, at Mississippi State, vs. Gonzaga on neutral court, and at Xavier) and they won OUTRIGHT all 4 times, including their impressive 66-62 win at Memphis February 23rd!

Second, while the Cardinals are usually able to use their depth to overwhelm opponents, that will not be the case tonight. Even Pitino is quoted as saying about Tennessee: ''maybe the deepest team we'll face this year, so our depth won't be too much of an advantage." Both teams can rotate about 10 players, so expect the Vols to keep it competitive, even when the subs enter the game.

Third, let's talk public perception. This is where Vegas makes their money, and I'm warning you about it right here and right now. While its true Louisville won their first two tourney match ups by a combined 48 points, where you really that impressed by either Boise State or Oklahoma? Guys, the Vols are head and shoulders better than either one of the those teams, with the guard play, bigmen, and depth to match up with the Cardinals!

Bottom line, expect a razor close contest here, as the Volunteers and coach Pearl come out supremely motivated in their underdog/"us against the world" role here tonight. Rolling to victories in their first two games might actually come back to bite the Cardinals, as Tennessee can take their best punch and keep coming. After sub-par efforts in his first two tournament games, look for Chris Lofton to make the difference here tonight.

Take Tennessee plus the points over Louisville in tonight's East Regional Semifinals match up.


2* TENNESSEE On a 1* to 5* Scale

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Michael Cannon

Lay the points with North Carolina over Washington State in the East Regional.

A big contrast in styles, as the Tarheels are ultra-high tempo while the Cougars are a patient bunch who will want to slow the pace down.

The problem with that tatic is the Tarheels have seen it before, as there are precious few teams in the nation that are willing to run and gun with North Carolina.

On the other hand, Washington State hasn't seen a team that plays at such a frenetic pace as North Carolina.

The Tarheels have rolled through the first two rounds of the tournament and I expect that to continue tonight.  They just don't allow their opponents to get any kind of momentum going.  As soon as they are scored on, North Carolina pushes the ball up the court immediately for a countering score.

That helps to halt any momentum against them and it also deflates their oppnent who worked hard for the score only to see it neutralized immediately on the other end.

North Carolina is playing arguably its best basketball of the season right now, and with the big prize within their grasp look for them to continue to roll tonight.

Lay the points as North Carolina grabs the win and cover.

5* NORTH CAROLINA On a 1* to 5* basis

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VEGAS EXPERTS

Xavier Crusaders at West Virginia Mountaineers

Both teams with two wins and covers in the tourney. Xavier has turned it on then after a 2-3 S/U, 1-4 ATS finish to its season. XAVIER is 13-4 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997 and 17-8 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on: Xavier

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on Xavier +1

A big win over powerhouse Duke sets the Mountaineers up for a letdown against an experienced and physical Xavier squad.  Xavier has handled two major conference opponents in Georgia and Purdue to get to the Sweet 16 and the Musketeers will be ready to take down another one.  Xavier is 11-2 ATS versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons, 17-8 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons, and 20-6 ATS after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds since 1997. Xavier is clearly being undervalued here because it is a mid-major, despite its selection as a 3-seed.  Take the Musketeers to move on into the Elite.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Scott Rickenbach

Washington State @ North Carolina
PICK: North Carolina

REASON FOR PICK: 1* (regular play) North Carolina Tar Heels (-) vs Washington State @ 7:25 ET – The Cougars have used favorable draws to get past the first two rounds with ease. Of course the Tar Heels have too but North Carolina as proven time and time again that they can step up when necessary. As for Washington State, they went 0-5 this season against Stanford and UCLA (the other two Pac Ten teams still alive in the tournament). In round one of this tourney, the Cougars had their hands full with Winthrop in the first half before dominating the second half but the Eagles of Winthrop certainly aren’t comparable to the Heels of North Carolina! As for round two, the Cougars managed to blow out a Notre Dame offense that just may have been overrated! Consider that the Fighting Irish ended their season with a 2-6 record in games against ranked teams. All of the sudden, the Cougars victory over the Irish is not so impressive.

Thursday, Washington State is taking a big step up in level of competition as they face a team that many believe will win it all this season. North Carolina has so much depth and talent offensively that we just don’t see the Cougars defense being able to hold this team in check. While we do respect what Tony Bennett has done with this Washington State team their slow and conservative play is not going to get the job done here. With Ty Lawson now healthy he combines with other talents on this Tar Heels offense to give North Carolina the ability to break defenses down. Even rock solid ones like Washington State has. The Cougars were last this season in the Pac Ten in offensive rebounds. Of course, that’s because they don’t hit the boards hard on that end because they’re already looking to get back on the defensive end once the shot goes up. This does help slow fast break opportunities going the other way but North Carolina absolutely can execute in a half-court offense.

Look for the Tar Heels defense to help create some opportunities as well. Defense is certainly not the forte of North Carolina but we’ve seen Tar Heels Coach Roy Williams in similar situations in the past where he was able to get his defense to step up when it matters most. Remember 2005 in St Louis? Solid defense played a big role then for the Tar Heels and it can again here. This is especially true since the Cougars aren’t exactly loaded with playmakers on offense. In fact, another key here is that Marcus Ginyard is a rock solid defender for the Tar Heels and he can hold the Cougars top threat Kyle Weaver in check in this game. The Cougars were just 10-8 their last 18 heading into the tournament and their big wins over Winthrop and Notre Dame are getting them a little too much respect from the odds maker here. In what is essentially a home game for the Tar Heels and a cross country road trip for Washington State, we’ll gladly side with the high powered Heels in this one. Play North Carolina minus the points as a regular selection.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

David Malinsky 6*

LOUISVILLE over Tennessee

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

1. 400,000* West Virginia
2. 50,000* Nuggets

1. West Virginia- Got to love the Mountaineers in this contest for several strong reasons, but let's start with their recent play. Mountaineers effectively shut down two rock-solid offenses in consecutive tourney games. Arizona was a well-balanced team, led by two of the better player in the PAC-10, and what happened? WVU Limited them to 65 points and cruised to a 10-point victory! Then came Duke, a guard-heavy offense built on the perimeter game, and what happened? WVU Limited them to 67 points on 38% shooting, winning outright 73-67 as 4-point dogs!

This brings me to my first mismatch: Xavier's offense versus the West Virginia
man-to-man defense. Make no mistake, the Musketeers played some relatively weak defenses throughout the season, and even into tournament play. Comparing the surging WVU defense to either Georgia or Purdue's defense is like comparing apples and oranges. Statistically, when we talk about defense, we're talking about scoring defense and opponents field goal percentage... The only team on Xavier's schedule ranked higher than WVU in both categories is Arizona State, and what happened in that game? Xavier got crushed 77-55! Now, I'm not saying that's going to happen, but what I am saying is Xavier hasn't seen a defense like WVU in a long time, and they'll have their issues against it tonight.

Next, let's talk match ups, as clearly the best player on the court is WVU F Joe Alexander. I would go as far to say, he's the only true "go-to" player on the court, giving WVU a huge edge when they "need" a basket. Critics say F Josh Duncan can guard him, but I seriously doubt that. While I'll admit Xavier's experience in the backcourt is an edge, point guards Nichols and Mazzulla (who's playing as good as any backup PG in the country right now) are both excellent distributors, and have the size (both 6'2) to take advantage of the elfish 5'7 Drew Lavender.

Finally, you can't tell me the difference between the Big East and A-10 isn't an issue here. While Xavier was losing at Temple and narrowly beating teams like Charlotte (two of the better teams in the A-10), West Virginia was busy battling teams like Louisville and Pittsburgh. Sorry Xavier-backers, but the difference is crystal clear for this 'Capper, and it'll show in tonight's match up. The fact Xavier also had a much easier path to the Sweet 16 cannot be ignored, as Georgia was lucky to be there, and Purdue was a deeply flawed team that played zero defense against the Musketeers.
Bottom line, Xavier runs smack into wall called the WVU defense, while Alexander and company have the edges necessary to exploit a good, but not great Xavier defense. "Battle-tested" is a word that the media loves to throw around, but in this case, it's appropriate, as the Mountaineers battles in the Big East pay off on the Big Stage tonight in Phoenix.

Take West Virginia over Xavier as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Nuggets- So the Mavericks snap their 3-game losing streak, clobbering the lowly Clippers 103-90 Tuesday night in Dallas, and now everything is okay, right? Wrong! Don't let one home win against one of the worst teams in the NBA fool you... This is a Dallas team on the ropes without Nowitzki, and getting it done in Denver is a hell of a lot different than beating the Clippers in Dallas!

Let's not forget, the Nuggets are sitting on the outside looking in (9th spot, 1/2 game back from the Warriors), and would like nothing more than to improve their position, and subsequently hurt the Mavs playoff chances with a win here tonight. If there's any place the Nuggets can do it, its at the Pepsi Center, where they've been downright nasty of late, winning 5 in a row SUATS, averaging a ridiculous 129.6 ppg over that span! Sure wins against Seattle and Memphis were easy, but they also beat the Spurs, Suns, and Raptors over that span... So don't tell me those wins aren't impressive!

Without Nowitzki, matchups become a real issue for the Mavs, because unlike the sorry Clippers, the Nuggets have the personnel to take advantage of the big German's absence. First off, Dampier is not going to score 19 points and grab 17 rebounds (like he did against the Clippers) against the frontline of Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin. Also, neither Kidd nor Stackhouse can guard Iverson, which immediately opens the Mavs defense to dribble penetration. And finally, Josh Howard and Carmelo Anthony all but equalize each other, leaving the Mavs grasping for answers.

Finally, let's examine the series, as Denver has covered three in a row, and that was with Nowitzki in the lineup. Not only that, but as mentioned above, Denver is killing teams at the Pepsi Center, and Dallas will be no different. Also, I can't imagine all the grumblings from owner Mark Cuban is helping this Dallas team, as he's publicly questioned his coach and his team in recent weeks. It appears as though the addition of Jason Kidd was not the spark they envisioned, and after tonight, it'll be crystal clear which team is playing better basketball. Nuggets roll!

Take the Nuggets BIG over the Mavericks in this NBA match up.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jack Clayton
UCLA


Mighty Quinn
West Virginia


RedZone Sports
NC/Wash State under


Max Prophet
Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Over


VEGAS STEAMLINE
Dallas/Denver OVER


Steve Janus
Western Kentucky + 12.5


SportsCapping
West Virginia/Xavier Over 136


Madduxsports
UCLA -12

Joe Wiz
Nuggets
Heat


Razor Sharp Sports
Wky/UCLA Under


Scott Spreitzer
Portland/GST Over


Glen Mcgrew
Xavier


Huddle Up Sports
Mavs


ARTHUR RALPH
Louisville


NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
W. Kentucky +12


Sportsguru
W.Kentucky


BRW Sports Advisors
Louisville -2.5


HotLocksports
Devils/Rangers Under 5

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

John Fina

Selection: Detroit Pistons (-)

Today the Miami Heat will be on the road as they take on the Detroit Pistons. We will lay the points with the Detroit Pistons! The Detroit Pistons have the much superior overall team. The bottom line, the Detroit Pistons should have no problem dominating this game on offense and defense which means the Miami Heat will struggle from start to finish. In addition, the Miami Heat are a bad road team. In fact, the Miami Heat are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 road games. We will lay the points with the much superior team! Take the Detroit Pistons

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Karl Garrett

40 DIMER - LOUISVILLE....10 DIMERS - XAVIER, & WESTERN KENTUCKY

40 DIMER - LOUISVILLE CARDINALS



With all due respect to the Vols, I believe this Louisville team is the better team, and I believe the Cardinals will dispose of Tennessee in this round to advance to the next round.



Louisville is on an 11-2 run both straight up, and against the spread, and the Cards are on a 12-4-1 spread run away from Freedom Hall, while the Volunteers are just 8-11 against the spread away from Knoxville this season.



Also keep in mind that Tennessee's star guard Chris Lofton is nursing a sore ankle. The writing is on the wall my friends!



Louisville is playing too well right now, and Tennessee was lucky to escape in overtime against Butler last round.



Take Louisville.



10 DIMER - XAVIER MUSKETEERS



Tough game here, but I will respect the selection committee's seedings, and grab the #3 seed plus a point or so tonight in Phoenix.



Xavier is getting some rock-solid point guard play from Drew Lavender, and they have the perfect mix of senior leadership to keep this march run motoring on. No knock on West Virginia, as Alexander, and Ruoff, along with Nichols continue to impress, but I am siding with the Musketeers in this near pick spot to move on to the Elite Eight.



10 DIMER - WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS



This Hilltoppers team is really getting no respect with this line, and I am going to jump all over them plus the double-digits to give UCLA a fight before finally bowing out.



Ben Howland's team is shooting for another Final Four, but they looked mighty shaky against Texas A&M as the Bruins just aren't getting much production from their role players.



The Hilltoppers are just deadly enough from long range to keep them in range in this spot tonight.



Take WKU to stay inside of the number in this one.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Michael Cannon

Thursday's Plays...

25 Dime –



XAVIER



Take Xavier tonight over West Virginia in the West Regional.



A lot of small edges go Xavier’s way in this matchup. Experience, depth and scoring balance just to name a few.



But the biggest reason I’m siding with Xavier is point guard Drew Lavender.



The lightning-quick senior has the ability to control the tempo of this game all by himself, and he’s got the experience and talent to get it done in the clutch for the Minutemen.



West Virginia may have the biggest pure scorer on the court in Joe Alexander, but Xavier has six players that average between 10 and 12 ppg. All it takes is one game where Alexander gets into foul trouble and the Mountaineers scoring goes down the drain.



Don’t be surprised if it happens here tonight.



The Minutemen have gone to the charity stripe 33 times in each of their first two games of the tournament, where they are shooting a whopping 80 percent as a team.



Alexander is going to have to work on both ends of the court in this game, as Josh Duncan has the ability to score from the perimeter or low post. That means a lot of Alexander’s energy is going to be expended on the defensive end, which could affect his shooting in the second half.



Take Xavier as their experience, scoring balance and Lavender make the difference tonight.



10 Dime –



LOUISVILLE



Take Louisville tonight over Tennessee.



The only team playing better than the Cardinals right now in the tournament is North Carolina.



Louisville coach Rick Pitino has dialed it up on defense and his players have responded in a big, big way.



The Cardinals are on an 11-2 SUATS run over the last two months and I don’t see Tennessee hanging within the number tonight.



Louisville is a deep, athletic team that causes headaches for its opponents with an aggressive 2-3 zone that makes it difficult for opponents to find an open look.



The Volunteers best chance in this game is if guard Chris Lofton is hot, but he’s only shooting 22 percent from the field through the first two rounds and I doubt he gets hot against the pressure the Cardinals are sure to keep him under.



Take Louisville minus the points as they grab the win and cover.

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WUNDERDOG MLB

Game: Tampa Bay at Cleveland
Pick: Tampa Bay +118

If you haven't paid attention this spring, the Rays are 17-6 and have a major league leading +51 runs scored in all games played this spring. One of the bright spots is Andy Sonnanstine who has pitched as well as anyone down here. He brings in a spectacular 0.64 ERA to his final spring tune-up. The Indians counter with Cliff Lee, who is penciled into the 5th spot in the Tribe's rotation. Lee has yielded 21 hits in 13 innings this spring and is very hittable. We'll back the spring-hot Rays to notch another one.


Game: Pittsburgh at New York Yankees
Pick: Pittsburgh +166

Tom Gorzelanny will square off against Kei Igawa. Gorzelanny has had a rough spring, but the final appearance is when pitchers let loose to get ready for opening day. Igawa has had a decent spring, but he certainly isn't a front-liner on the Yankee staff. And again odds like this in an exhibition game show the power of the Yankees name, not the results on the field. We'll take the pitching edge and big odds to back the Pirates.


MLB Exhibition Season Game of the Year

Game: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Milwaukee +103

The opportunities in the spring are limited to who shows up and when. Lots of good pitchers are experimenting and not concerned about the results. There are also a lot of others trying to make an impression by airing it out. Today we have two teams that will open the season Monday, and neither will throw a major-league roster pitcher in this one, as they don't want to show each other anything. That means this becomes a minor league game, with players playing hard to make a final impression. That gives an edge to the Brewers. The brewers AAA affiliate, the Nashville Sounds is stacked with talent. They went 89-55 last year, but more important is the depth of quality pitchers that had a league-leading 3.80 ERA last year. In the same league, the Cubs finished with a 5.15 ERA. While the Brewers will bring a few roster players the Cubs are packing and leaving for Las Vegas where they play a game tomorrow, so there will be no major leaguers here. A decided edge on both fronts for the Brewers, and as a dog, this one is chock full of value.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

BEN BURNS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

UNDER Xavier/West Virginia
Game: West Virginia vs. Xavier
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on XAVIER and West Virginia to finish UNDER the total. The Musketeers come off a high-scoring game against Purdue last time out. However, they had previously held four straight opponents to 65 points or less and I expect them to deliver another strong defensive effort this evening. Looking back a bit further and we find that, prior to Purdue, six of Xavier's prvevious eight opponents had managed 61 points or less. That includes holding Dayton to 48 and limiting Duqeusne to a mere 48. Five of those eight games stayed below the number. For the season, the Musketeers have allowed an average of 62.7 points, including just 28.3 in the first half. West Virginia, which allows an average of 63.1 (29.7 in first half) is nearly as good in that department. The Mountaineers limited high-scoring Duke to 67 last time out, in a game that fell below the number by six points. The Mountaineers have to contend with some of the nation's elite defenses, while playing in the Big East. Therefore, it's worth noting that they've seen the UNDER go 6-2 on the season when facing a team which allows 64 points or less per game. While the Mountaineers weren't known for their defense under former coach Beilein, they have become much tougher on that side of the ball under Coach Huggins. As backup point guard Joe Mazzulla stated: "Last year, we did two hours of offense and 10 minutes of defense (in practice). This year, we do two hours of defense and half-hour of offense." Xavier has seen the UNDER go 3-1 its last four games against Big East opponents. The Musketeers, currently listed as slight underdogs, have also seen the UNDER go 9-4 the last 13 times that they were getting points and 4-1 the last five times they were underdogs of two points or less. Look for this evening's final combined score to be lower than expected once again. *Blue Chip

XAVIER
Game: West Virginia vs. Xavier
Prediction: Xavier Reason: I'm playing on XAVIER. West Virginia has beaten a pair of what people perceive to be tougher opponents (Arizona and Duke) to get here. That has caused the majority of the general public to feel that the Mountaineers are the better team and they're currently slight favorites. Its not Xavier's fault that it "only" played Georgia and Purdue though. Also, while those two opponents admittedly don't have the big names like Duke and Arizona, Purdue played great all season and Georgia entered the tournament on a very big emotional high and was as hot as just about any team in the country at the time. Meanwhile, Duke wasn't playing that well down the stretch while many people didn't even feel Arizona deserved to be here. Therefore, while I've been impressed with the Mountaineers' victories, I disagree that they somehow make them better than Xavier. Yes, the Mountaineers play in the stronger conference. However, we've already seen arguably better Big East teams, like Georgetown and UConn, lose to the likes of San Diego and Davidson. Additionally, the A-10 is a lot more competitive than many people realize. While the Mountaineers have a couple of stars, the Musketeers are one of the most balanced teams in the country. They've got six players who are capable of scoring and with no real star among them, all of them have a "team first" mentality. The Musketeers have been listed as underdogs twice this season and they won both games outright. I expect their depth to prove the difference and for them to score another "upset" this evening. *Best Bet

HOCKEY

UNDER Sabres/Sens
Game: Buffalo Sabres vs. Ottawa Senators

Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Sabres and Senators to finish UNDER the total. Yes, these teams played a high-scoring game against each other at Buffalo recently. However, as we've seen the past couple of nights, that doesn't necessarily mean that this evening's game will again be high-scoring. Two nights ago, the Rangers and Flyers were playing the back half of a home and home series. The first game was high-scoring but the second finished with just two goals after regulation. Last night, it was the Wild and Oilers who were playing the second of back to back games against each other. The first game produced eight goals but the second saw only half as many. I'm expecting the pattern to hold and for tonight's game to feature significantly less scoring than we saw at Buffalo on Tuesday. After playing eight games in a row which saw six or less combined goals scored (Under was 7-1!) the Sens have played three straight high-scoring contests. That's worth noting as we find the UNDER at 49-36-2 the last 77 times that they had seen their previous three games all go 'over' the total. Tuesday's result notwithstanding, the Sens have still seen the UNDER go 55-43-3 against division opponents the past three seasons and an even better 59-36-5 (62%) when coming off a game vs. a divisional opponent. Look for those numbers to improve here as the final combined score falls beneath the generous number. *total of the week

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Brandon Lang

40 Dime Louisville

10 Dime West Virginia

5 Dime Western Kentucky

Free Pick - Washington State

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Arthur Ralph

Superpick: North Carolina

Regular Play: Xavier

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Josh Dean

CBB
Unc/Wash UNDER

NHL
NJ/NYR UNDER 5
Wash/TB OVER 5.5
Phx/LA OVER 5.5

FREE B: Xavier +1.5

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Cappers Access

Xavier

Louisville

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WINNERS EDGE

Louisville -3 , 2 units

North Carolina - 8.5 , 2 units

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