Betting News and Notes - Mar.27

Betting News and Notes - Mar.27

East Region semifinals
By Brian Edwards

The NCAA Tournament resumes Thursday night with a quartet of games, including a pair of dandy matchups in Charlotte at Bobcat Arena. Let’s take a look at both of those contests.

**Washington State vs. North Carolina**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened North Carolina (34-2 straight up, 22-11 against the spread) as an eight-point favorite with a total of 137. Since then, the total has been adjusted into the 142-143 range. Most spots have the Cougars at plus 300 on the money line (risk $100 to win $300).

--This is the lowest total UNC has seen all year and the highest for Washington St. The previous low for UNC was 145 in a game against Old Dominion that played to 181 combined points (99-82 Carolina victory). The ‘over’ is 4-2 in UNC’s six games with the total in the 140s. The Cougars saw a 141-point total in their season opener, a 68-41 win over Eastern Washington that stayed ‘under.’

--UNC dealt out a pair of woodshed beatings in Raleigh last weekend. The Tar Heels drilled Mount St. Mary’s by a 113-74 count as 25-point favorites in Friday night’s first-round matchup. On Sunday, they jumped on Arkansas early and cruised to a 108-77 victory as 11-point ‘chalk.’ Tyler Hansbrough scored 17 points and grabbed 10 rebounds, while Wayne Ellington led five UNC players in double figures with 20 points against the Razorbacks.

--Roy Williams’s team has won 13 in a row since losing a home game – albeit with Ty Lawson nursing a sprained ankle – to Duke. The Heels are 7-6 ATS during that stretch.

--Washington State (26-8 SU, 18-15 ATS) owns a 3-5 record both SU and ATS in eight spots as an underdog this season. This is the richest ‘dog situation the Cougars have seen, as the most generous number they have caught was six in an 81-74 loss (both SU and ATS) at UCLA.

--Washington St. was dominant in a pair of wins last week against both Winthrop and Notre Dame. The Cougars sent the Eagles packing by virtue of a 71-41 win as 10-point favorites. The 111 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 114-point total that was the lowest tally of all first-round games. Next, Tony Bennett’s team thumped Notre Dame 61-41 as a 2½-point ‘chalk.’ Derrick Low scored 18 points, while Kyle Weaver had 15 points and nine rebounds.

--The Cougars limited Luke Harangody, the Big East Player of the Year who is a dominant post player like Hansbrough, to just 10 points on 3-of-17 shooting from the field. Hansbrough, the National Player of the Year, averages 23.1 points and 10.5 rebounds per game.

--Washington St. hasn’t won two games in the NCAA Tournament since 1941. With that said, this is a veteran team led by its senior guards Low and Weaver. The Cougars got a taste of the tournament last season, winning their first game before dropping a heartbreaker in overtime to Vandy in the second round.

--UNC became the first team since Loyola Marymount in 1990 (think Bo Kimble, Jeff Fryer, Terrell Lowery, Per Stumer and Tom “The Human Bruise” Peabody) to score more than 100 points in back-to-back NCAA Tournament games.

--The ‘over’ is 21-11 overall for UNC, but the ‘under’ is 17-16 overall for the Cougars, who have watched the ‘under’ go 7-3 in their last 10 games.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 7:25 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
   
**Tennessee vs. Louisville**

--LVSC opened Louisville (26-8 SU, 19-12 ATS) as a 1½-point favorite with a total of 146, but the number has been at 2½ for most of the week. Some spots even moved to three on Wednesday. The total remains 146 at most spots, while gamblers can back UT on the money line for a plus 135 return.

--With the exception of the second half against South Carolina in its regular-season finale, Tennessee (31-4 SU, 17-14 ATS) hasn’t played well since winning at Memphis back on Feb. 23. Since then, the Volunteers are 3-5 ATS.

--Bruce Pearl’s team advanced to its second straight Sweet 16 thanks to a 76-71 victory over Butler in overtime. The Vols hooked up their backers with a fortunate cover as 4½-point favorites thanks to four consecutive free throws by JaJuan Smith in the last 13 seconds of the extra session. Wayne Chism scored a team-high 16 for UT, but leading scorer Chris Lofton produced just nine points on 3-of-11 shooting.

--UT beat American 72-57 in the first round, but the final score was extremely misleading because the Vols led by just five with less than four minutes remaining. They failed to cover the number as 19-point favorites.

--Lofton, a senior guard who is one of the most prolific scorers in SEC history, had only five points against American, missing all five attempts from beyond the arc. Lofton shot 4-for-18 combined in the two games in Birmingham.

--Pearl tinkered with his lineup last week, inserting J.P. Prince as the starting point guard in place of Ramar Smith. Prince, a transfer from Arizona, did some good things but committed six turnovers against Butler.

--Louisville was as impressive as any team in the field last week, clubbing Boise St. (79-61) and Oklahoma (78-48) for easy spread covers. Eleven different U of L players scored against the Sooners with Earl Clark netting a team-high 14 points.

--Dating back to Jan. 5, Louisville has been a money-making machine, cashing tickets at a 16-4-1 ATS clip.

--The Cardinals are 11-5 ATS as single-digit favorites this season.

--Tennessee has only been an underdog four times this year, winning outright in each of those games. The Vols won as ‘dogs at Xavier, at Gonzaga, at Mississippi State and at Memphis.

--The ‘under’ is 19-12 overall for the Cardinals, 17-14 overall for the Vols.

vegasinsider.com

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Betting News and Notes - Mar.27

West Regional Semifinals
By Judd Hall

If you like betting just favorites, then the first round of the NCAA Tournament was for you. The “chalk” took advantage of favorable first round matchups, going 24-8 straight up and 21-11 against the spread.

The second round was more of the same as far as outright winners go since the favorites went 13-3 SU. Bettors, however, couldn’t catch a break last Saturday and Sunday as the faves posted a 9-7 record against the number.

So will the Sweet Sixteen produce the same results against the number as it did in Round 2?

Well, the “chalk” has gone 14-2 SU in the last two regional semifinals, but just 6-10 ATS during that time. The ‘under’ was a solid risk for the public as it went 11-5 in the past two Sweet 16s.

Can this trend continue? That’s anyone’s guess…especially in a West Region that has already seen four upsets happen and came close to a fifth.

Xavier vs. West Virginia

Isn’t it funny how old enemies just find their way back into your life in sports?

That’s what the Musketeer fans will have running through their minds when they see Bob Huggins roaming the West Virginia sidelines on Thursday. Perhaps they should be more concerned with Mountaineer squad that has bullied their first two tournament opponents.

The Mountaineers have learned Huggins’s physical style of defense a lot fast than anyone anticipated, allowing just 63.1 points per game for the season. Their most recent display of brute force came at the expense of a Duke squad that had scored around 83.2 PPG for the year, while hitting 37.7 percent of its three-pointers.

West Virginia forced the Blue Devils into shooting 38 percent from the field. The Mountaineers also grabbed almost every loose ball during the tilt, winning the rebound battle, 45-19. WVU also saw Joe Mazzulla drive the team with his 13 points and eight assists in its 73-67 win as a four-point underdog.

Huggins’s crew also got a big performance out of Joe Alexander. The junior forward put in 22 points with 11 boards and three assists. What Alexander brings to the table is a big man (he stands 6-foot-8) that has the ability of playing down low in the paint and on the perimeter from time to time.

Alexander will face off against Xavier’s big man, Josh Duncan. The Musketeers’ 6-foot-9 forward has been a question that most of their opponents had no answer for this season. Duncan averaged 12.1 PPG and 4.7 rebounds per game as well. He got into early foul trouble against the Boilermakers in the second round, but still found a way to put in 16 points and grab five defensive boards.

The sportsbooks have seen a lot of movement on the line for this tilt. Xavier opened as a one-point favorite, with a total of 136. While the total has remained sessile, the Mountaineers have become one-point favorites.

This line could be music to gambler’s ears as West Virginia is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS when tabbed as a favorite of two-points or lower since 2004. That is great news unless you read into “Huggy Bear’s” recent history against Xavier. Huggins went 3-5 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in his last eight games with Cincinnati when squaring off against the Musketeers.

CBS will be there to provide television coverage, starting at 7:10 pm EDT.

Western Kentucky vs. UCLA

Just when you thought David vs. Goliath was on display last weekend, we’ll get the ultimate showdown of the phrase in the Sweet 16.

Western Kentucky has done more than enough to shed the “Cinderella” label during its run to the regional semis. The No. 12 seed Hilltoppers thrilled everyone in possibly the best match we’ll see all tourney long in upending No. 5 Drake as four-point ‘dogs, 101-99, in overtime. WKU even pulled off some more heroics in taking down the Toreros as a five-point “chalk,” 72-63, to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1993.

The Bruins can’t find a happy medium for their victories recently. They either blow out the competition or just get lucky. The latter certainly was the order of the day for Ben Howland’s program against Texas A&M.

UCLA shot just 43 percent from the field and gave the ball up 14 times to the Aggies in its second round scuffle. Darren Collison was the Bruins’ savior, scoring a game-high 21 points, including the winning bucket with just over nine seconds in regulation. It also helps that the B’s stifled A&M’s offense to where it scored just five points in the final six minutes of the second half.

The Bruins got a boost from Luc Richard Mbah a Moute in the trenches, snaring eight boards. However, his six turnovers must have made Howland pull his hair.

One thing the ‘Toppers must be able to do in this game in order to have a chance is be successful from the three-point line. Western Kentucky shoots 34.6 percent from beyond the arch this season, among the Top 20 in the nation.

If the Hilltoppers can give snipers like Ty Rogers, Tyrone Brazleton and Courtney Lee an opening against a defense that holds teams to 58 PPG this year, then they can definitely keep the match close.

The current line has UCLA as a 12 ½-point favorite, with the total holding steady at 133. And the Bruins excel when tabbed as double-digit favorites, establishing a 34-3 SU and 21-15-1 ATS mark since 2005.

Western Kentucky is 3-17 SU and 10-9-1 ATS when made a double-digit ‘dog since 1997. The ‘under’ has gone 13-7 during that stretch.

Tip-off for this regional semifinal is 9:40 pm EDT on CBS.

vegasinsider.com

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Betting News and Notes - Mar.27

A look at the matchups for the regional semifinals
ASSOCIATED PRESS

EAST REGIONAL At Charlotte, N.C. North Carolina (1) vs. Washington State (4)

Something has to give.

North Carolina, second in the nation in scoring at 89.9 points per game, became the first team since Loyola Marymount in 1990 to break the 100 mark in its first two games. Washington State, second in the nation in defense allowing 56.1 points per game, allowed a total of 81 points in its first two games, one of the lowest figures in the shot clock era.

The Tar Heels want to get out and run. The Cougars want to get the pace their way with patience and disruption. This is the classic offense-defense matchup but the biggest difference could be location. The game is being played just a few hours from the North Carolina campus.

Tennessee (2) vs. Louisville (3)

Tennessee struggled for most of its opener against American and then needed overtime to beat Butler. The Volunteers went a combined 11-for-38 from 3-point range. Louisville shot 59 percent in an easy second-round win over Oklahoma but it was the Cardinals' defense that was most impressive, especially on the perimeter - 9-for-35 from 3-point range - and in forcing a total of 35 turnovers.

Both teams look good when they're running but both can get physical up front so this might not be the high-scoring game most people expect.

WEST REGIONAL At Phoenix UCLA (1) vs. Western Kentucky (12)

UCLA set a modern record allowing a total of 78 points in the first two games. Still, the Bruins just squeaked by Texas A&M in the second round as Kevin Love and Darren Collison combined for 40 of their 53 points and made every big play down the stretch. Western Kentucky had the signature moment of the first round - Ty Rogers' 26-footer at the overtime buzzer against Drake - and also lost double-figure leads in both wins.

UCLA's late-season run of close games with controversial calls hasn't hurt its perception of regional favorite.

Xavier (3) vs. West Virginia (7)

These teams have almost identical profiles as far as offense, defense and depth. The one advantage may be Xavier's experience in the tournament and the fact the Musketeers still harbor the disappointment of last year's second-round loss to Ohio State where they blew a big lead late, something they did again in the second round against Purdue.

West Virginia beat two schools with impressive NCAA resumes in the first two rounds - Arizona and Duke - and the Mountaineers held them to a combined 11-for-37 from 3-point range. Still, they have to make sure Joe Alexander gets his share of shots which seems to open things up for others.

MIDWEST REGIONAL At Detroit Kansas (1) vs. Villanova (12)

Usually a No. 1 seed has a big break getting a 12 in the third round but Villanova is far from a typical team from that line. The Wildcats come from a power conference and have faced a number of quality teams. They will rely heavily on sophomore guard Scottie Reynolds who averaged 23 points and six rebounds in the two tournament wins.

The Jayhawks had two easy wins because of their defense, but its their size that will give Villanova problems. Kansas outrebounds opponents by almost eight a game, while the Wildcats only average 2.8 more.

Wisconsin (3) vs. Davidson (10)

Wisconsin is the top defensive team in the country, allowing 53.9 points per game and neither Cal State Fullerton nor Kansas State reached 60 in the first two rounds. Neither of those teams had Stephen Curry. The Wildcats rode the sophomore guard to the round of 16 on two of the most impressive second halves seen in the tournament in a long time.

Georgetown is one of the top defensive teams in the country yet the Hoyas had no way to stop Curry as they lost all of a 17-point lead. Davidson is effective with its subtle defensive pressure which forced Georgetown into 20 turnovers. Curry will have to have a third great performance to keep the nation's longest winning streak alive.

SOUTH REGIONAL At Houston Memphis (1) vs. Michigan State (5)

Since Memphis lost just one game this season there isn't a lot to go on about how to beat the Tigers. A good guess would be physical play and keeping it close so free throw shooting becomes a factor. For all the gaudy numbers Memphis puts up it's tough to ignore 59 percent shooting from the line and the Tigers were 22-for-35 and 15-for-32 in their two tournament games.

Michigan State won a physical matchup with Pittsburgh in the second round and found its much needed third scorer in freshman guard Kalin Lucas, who had 19 points in that win. The Spartans are always one of the best rebounding teams in the country and they had a comfortable edge in both wins. Tom Izzo, one of the best NCAA tournament coaches of this generation, is a master of getting teams ready for physical games.

Texas (2) vs. Stanford (3)

This is another matchup where the stats are almost identical but each team's strength is at a different part of the court.

The Longhorns, who will have a decided advantage playing in their home state, have one of the best point guards in the country in D.J. Augustin, who averages 19 points a game, and his backcourt partner, A.J. Abrams has started to come out of his shooting slump. However, the numbers that are scary from the second-round win over Miami is that Texas shot better from 3-point range (13-for-26) than the free throw line (12-for-21).

Stanford can expect coach Trent Johnson to be around the whole game after he was ejected in the first half of the overtime win against Marquette. The 7-foot Lopez twins have become as dominant frontcourt duo as there is in the country but Brook Lopez has been the standout. His game-winning shot against the Golden Eagles may not have been as dramatic as some of the long jumpers others hit, but the degree of difficulty was off the charts.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Betting News and Notes - Mar.27

NBA Today

New Jersey at Indiana (7 p.m. EDT). The Nets are a half-game behind the Hawks for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

STARS

-Kevin Martin, Kings, scored 36 points and made two free throws in the closing seconds of overtime to give Sacramento a 107-106 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies.

-Chris Paul, Hornets, had 20 assists with 15 points in a 100-99 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers.

-Jason Richardson, Bobcats, had 34 points and 10 rebounds in a 108-95 win over the Lakers.

-Tracy McGrady, Rockets, scored 13 of his 23 points in the fourth quarter and added 11 rebounds and nine assists in a 97-86 win over the Timberwolves.

-Andre Miller, Sixers, had 18 assists in 121-99 win over the Chicago Bulls.

PLAYOFF RACES

Joe Johnson scored 28 points, Josh Childress added 20 and the Atlanta Hawks beat the Milwaukee Bucks 115-96 on Wednesday night to maintain the eighth playoff position in the Eastern Conference. ... Devin Harris had 22 points and a career-best 15 assists and the New Jersey Nets kept pace with Atlanta for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with a 124-117 victory over the Indiana Pacers. New Jersey trails Atlanta by a half-game for the final slot in the Eastern Conference.

BOUNCED

Jason Richardson had 34 points and 10 rebounds, Raymond Felton added 13 points and 10 assists, and the lowly Bobcats stunned the Lakers 108-95 on Wednesday night in a game where Kobe Bryant drew two technical fouls in a span of 29 seconds late in the fourth quarter and was ejected. Bryant has 15 technicals, and one more will get him an automatic, one-game suspension.

SEE YA, C-WEBB

Chris Webber announced his retirement from the NBA on Wednesday after 15 seasons, bowing to a knee injury that cut short his comeback attempt with the Golden State Warriors. Webber was the most prominent member of the Fab Five at Michigan and played for Golden State, Washington, Sacramento, Philadelphia and Detroit in his NBA career. Webber was a five-time All-Star, who ended his career averaging 20.7 points, 9.8 rebounds and 4.2 assists a game.

STREAKING

David West's 17-foot jumper, coming on Chris Paul's 20th assist with less than a second left, gave the New Orleans Hornets their fifth straight win, 100-99 over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night. ... Tim Duncan had 26 points and 12 rebounds and the San Antonio Spurs withstood a late rally from the Los Angeles Clippers for a 97-88 victory, their fifth straight.

DROUGHT ENDS

Jamal Crawford scored 24 points, including the go-ahead jumper with about 2 1/2 minutes left in overtime, and the New York Knicks ended their longest home losing streak in nearly 45 years by beating the Miami Heat 103-96 on Wednesday night. The Knicks had dropped a franchise record-tying seven in a row at home for the first time since Nov. 26-Dec. 17, 1963.

HANDOUTS


Chris Paul had 20 assists in the Hornets' 100-99 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night. ... Philadelphia's Andre Miller had 18 assists in a 121-99 win over the Chicago Bulls. ... Devin Harris had 15 assists in New Jersey's 124-117 win over the Indiana Pacers.

SNAPPED

The Bobcats defeated the Lakers 108-95 on Wednesday night to snap a six-game road losing streak.

STRONG IN DEFEAT

Indiana's Mike Dunleavy had 33 points with seven assists in a 124-117 loss to the New Jersey Nets on Wednesday night. ... Zydrunas Ilgauskas scored a season-high 29 points with 15 rebounds in Cleveland's 100-99 loss to the New Orleans Hornets. ... Seattle's Nick Collison had 21 rebounds in a 104-99 loss to the Washington Wizards.

SPEAKING

``Well, I may look like I'm here to explain something, but I have nothing to explain. I can't explain it, so don't ask me any questions. It just looked like we were out of character, tremendously out of character, in more ways than one - irrational play at times, inconsistent at best, but just some poor judgments, poor decisions.'' - Lakers coach Phil Jackson after the Bobcats stunned the Lakers 108-95 on Wednesday night. Kobe Bryant drew two technical fouls in a span of 29 seconds late in the fourth quarter and was ejected.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Betting News and Notes - Mar.27

NCAAB

WASHINGTON ST (26 - 8) vs. N CAROLINA (34 - 2)

N CAROLINA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games this season.
N CAROLINA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
N CAROLINA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
N CAROLINA is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
N CAROLINA is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.
N CAROLINA is 16-8 ATS (+7.2 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
N CAROLINA is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
N CAROLINA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
N CAROLINA is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
WASHINGTON ST is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


LOUISVILLE (26 - 8) vs. TENNESSEE (31 - 4)

LOUISVILLE is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
LOUISVILLE is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
LOUISVILLE is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
TENNESSEE is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a neutral court game where the total is 145 to 149.5 since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 10-30 ATS (-23.0 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


W VIRGINIA (26 - 10) vs. XAVIER (29 - 6)

XAVIER is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
XAVIER is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
XAVIER is 61-39 ATS (+18.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
W VIRGINIA is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
W VIRGINIA is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
W VIRGINIA is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
W VIRGINIA is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
W VIRGINIA is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
W VIRGINIA is 12-0 ATS (+12.0 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
W VIRGINIA is 39-25 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


W KENTUCKY (29 - 6) vs. UCLA (33 - 3)

UCLA is 60-42 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 60-42 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in March games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
W KENTUCKY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
W KENTUCKY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Betting News and Notes - Mar.27

NCAAB Tips and Trends – Sweet Sixteen

#7 West Virginia vs. #3 Xavier

West Virginia (-1, O/U 135.5): The Mountaineers have bettors believing in them again, much like they did in the Big East Tournament before bowing out to Georgetown. That's the main reason they are favored in this spot, as their 2 wins are viewed as more impressive than Xavier's, beating perennial powers Arizona and Duke to advance to the Sweet 16. However, the most impressive aspect of West Virginia's success in the Big Dance so far may be the fact that the team has stepped up in spite of star Joe Alexander's mediocre play. Alexander has averaged 18 points on 32 percent shooting (11-of-34), but it hasn't mattered.

The OVER is 7-2 in West Virginia's last 9 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 68

Xavier: The Musketeers are an unlikely underdog here as one of the top two remaining seeds in the West Region, winning and covering each of their first 2 games. However, skeptics still remember 2 losses to St. Joe's before the Big Dance and wonder how the Atlantic 10's best team will perform against one of the beasts from the Big East. One thing to consider if this game is close is free-throw shooting, as Xavier and North Carolina are the only 2 teams left in the Sweet 16 field who shoot 75 percent or better from the charity stripe.

The OVER is 7-2 in Xavier's last 9 neutral site games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 67


#12 Western Kentucky vs. #1 UCLA

Western Kentucky: The Hilltoppers are in the Sweet 16 thanks to seniors Courtney Lee and Ty Rogers, who hit the game-winning 3-pointer to beat Drake in the first round. Lee has NBA talent and decided to return to Western Kentucky for his senior year to take care of some unfinished business. Head coach Darrin Horn got fired up after beating San Diego and praised Lee, the Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year. ?Maybe now all of you can stop talking about, has Courtney stepped up? Did he have his ?A? game?? Horn said. ?The kid won for us whether he scored 15 or 30. What about the block he had against Drake late in the game? What about the steal he had (against San Diego)? The kid?s a tremendous player, he?s got a great heart, and we would not be here without him, period.?

Western Kentucky is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 neutral site games.
Western Kentucky is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games overall.
The OVER is 13-4-1 in Western Kentucky's last 18 neutral site games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 60

UCLA (-12.5, O/U 133): Some insiders believe the Bruins got the scare they needed in the second round win over Texas A&M to wake up and finish a strong charge to the Final Four. Of UCLA's last 6 games - all wins - 4 were decided by 3 points or less. The other 2 wins were decided by a combined 63 points, so you can understand the comparison to a sleeping giant here. The Bruins were able to get by the Aggies mainly on the offensive contributions of Kevin Love and Darren Collison, who together scored 40 of the team's 51 points. They will need better balance the rest of the way.

UCLA is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games overall.
The UNDER is 9-4 in UCLA's last 13 neutral site games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 73


#4 Washington State vs. #1 North Carolina

Washington State: The Cougars have won 2 straight NCAA Tournament games for the first time since 1941, and they had done so by playing stifling defense. They have surrendered a combined 81 points in the first 2 games, the lowest amount to start the tourney since 1949. While the team has lost all 25 of its previous meetings with the #1 team in the nation, those were all Pac-10 schools. The key for Washington State will be to limit North Carolina's Tyler HanXXXough after holding Notre Dame's Luke Harangody to just 10 points on 3-of-17 shooting.

The UNDER is 7-3 in Washington State's last 10 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 73 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

North Carolina (-7.5, O/U 142.5): The Tar Heels would love to dictate the tempo of this game after becoming the first team since 1990 to score more than 100 points in their first 2 games of the Big Dance. Whether they will be able to accomplish that or not remains to be seen. They failed to cover 3 straight games and 5 of 6 before the NCAA Tournament, scoring 90 points or less in each, and they did not top the 80-point mark in their 2 losses.

North Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games vs. Pac-10.
The UNDER is 8-1 in North Carolina's last 9 games vs. Pac-10.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 81


#3 Louisville vs. #2 Tennessee


Louisville (-2.5, O/U 146): The Cardinals have been one of the most impressive teams in the NCAA Tournament so far thanks to tremendous depth and defense. They led by as many as 35 points in a second-round win over Oklahoma with 11 difference players scoring, 10 of which got on the stat sheet in the first half. The last time Louisville advanced to the Sweet 16 under head coach Rick Pitino, the team made it all the way to the Final Four. Insiders believe this squad is even more talented and could give top seed North Carolina an epic battle for the right to advance to San Antonio on Saturday.

Louisville is 11-2 SU & ATS in its last 13 games overall.
The UNDER is 10-3 in Louisville's last 13 games vs. SEC.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 76 (Side Play of the Day)

Tennessee: Head coach Bruce Pearl has started 6-foot-7 J.P. Prince at point guard in the first 2 games of the NCAA Tournament, replacing Ramar Smith. ?The deal is this: I just thought that the point guard play we were getting wasn?t going to win a national championship,? Pearl said. ?So, if we make the decision and it doesn?t pay off and I?m sitting here in front of you and explaining why I made that choice and we lost the game, I could go to bed going, ?It?s OK.?? Smith has totaled just 8 points combined in the 2 games off the bench - nearly half his season average - while leading scorer Chris Lofton has totaled 14, making only 4-of-18 shots (22 percent) from the field while dealing with an ankle injury.

Tennessee is 1-3 ATS in its last 4 games overall.
The OVER is 13-5 in Tennessee's last 18 neutral site games.

Key Injuries - G Chris Lofton (15.5 ppg; leg) is expected to play.

PROJECTED SCORE: 70

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Betting News and Notes - Mar.27

Sweet 16 Gameday

March Madness resumes on Thursday night with the Sweet 16, as the West and East regions both decide which teams will move on to the Elite 8 of the NCAA Tournament.

West Region

West Virginia (7) vs. Xavier (3)

The Mountaineers shocked Duke 73-67 as a 4-point underdog in the second round last weekend. Joe Alexander put a beating on the Blue Devils with 22 points and 11 rebounds, while Alex Ruoff netted 17 points in the upset.

The Musketeers knocked off Purdue 85-78 as a 3-point favorite in their second round matchup. Drew Lavender and C.J. Anderson both had 18 points for Xavier. Lavender also added nine assists, while Anderson registered seven rebounds. The Musketeers shot extremely well in the win, hitting 54 percent of their shots from the floor.

The lower-seeded Mountaineers are actually a 1-point favorite in this game.

Western Kentucky (12) vs. UCLA (1)

The Hilltoppers continued their march through the tournament after taking down San Diego 72-63 as a 4.5-point favorite last weekend. Courtney Lee scored 29 points, which included four three-pointers, and he also had seven rebounds for Western Kentucky. Tyrone Brazelton delivered 15 points in the win and Jeremy Evans had nine points and seven boards.

The Bruins received a scare in the second round after barely getting past Texas A&M 51-49 as a 9.5-point favorite. Darren Collison led UCLA with 21 points and Kevin Love’s back appears to be fine, as he had a big game with 19 points, 11 rebounds and seven blocks. Even though Love hasn’t been hampered by his back strain, the Bruins haven’t been able to completely dodge injury trouble as Luc Mbah a Moute is still battling an ankle injury and Josh Shipp is coping with a bout of strep throat.

The Bruins are a heavy 12.5-point favorite against the upstart Hilltoppers.

East Region

Washington State (4) vs. North Carolina (1)


The Cougars' smothering defense secured an easy 61-41 win over Notre Dame as a 2.5-point favorite in the second round. Derrick Low poured in a team-high 18 points for Washington State and Kyle Weaver just missed a double-double with 15 points and nine rebounds. The usually steady Fighting Irish couldn’t get anything going against the Cougars in the loss and ended up shooting only 24 percent, which included going 3-for-17 from three-point range.

The Tar Heels shot an amazing 67 percent in their dominating 108-77 win over Arkansas in the second round as a 10-point favorite. Wayne Ellington led North Carolina with 20 points, and Ty Lawson ran the high-scoring offense while chipping in with 19 points and seven assists. Tyler Hansbrough also had a solid showing with 17 points and 10 rebounds.

The Tar Heels have been listed as an 8.5-point favorite in this game.

Louisville (3) vs. Tennessee (2)

The Cardinals destroyed Oklahoma 78-48 as a 7-point favorite in their second round matchup. The Cardinals shot a steady 59 percent in the win, as Earl Clark led Louisville with 14 points. Jerry Smith deposited 12 points for the Cardinals and David Padgett had eight points in the easy victory.

The Volunteers needed overtime to advance past Butler 76-71 as a 4.5-point favorite in the second round. Wayne Chism led the Vols with 16 points despite being in foul trouble for much of the game, while Tyler Smith had 15 points and eight rebounds. Tennessee leading scorer Chris Lofton delivered another poor performance with nine points on 3-of-11 shooting. Lofton’s trouble may be caused by an ankle injury that occurred in the first half against Butler. Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl said the injury won’t keep Lofton out of Thursday night’s game.

The Cardinals are a slim 2.5-point favorite in this game.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Betting News and Notes - Mar.27

Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons

- The Miami Heat and the Detroit Pistons will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday when they battle at The Palace of Auburn Hills.

Odds aren't yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.

The Heat were outlasted 103-96 by the Knicks last time out, as 8-point road underdogs. The combined score made it OVER the posted total of 188.

Ricky Davis tossed in a game-high 28 points with nine rebounds in the loss.

The Pistons lost 89-82 to the Raptors last time out, as 1.5-point road underdogs. The 171 points went UNDER the night's posted total of 185.5.

Chauncey Billups had 24 points with five rebounds and nine assists in the loss.

Team records:
Miami: 13-58 SU, 26-43-2 ATS
Detroit: 50-21 SU, 38-32-1 ATS

Miami most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 6-4
Before playing Boston are 7-3
After playing New York are 4-6
After a loss are 2-8

Detroit most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 6-4
Before playing Cleveland are 4-6
After playing Toronto are 6-4
After a loss are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Miami's last 13 games when playing Detroit
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami
Detroit is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Detroit's last 13 games when playing Miami
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Next up:
Miami at Boston, Sunday, March 30
Detroit home to Cleveland, Saturday, March 29

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Betting News and Notes - Mar.27

Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets

- The Dallas Mavericks and the Denver Nuggets will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday when they battle at Pepsi Center.

Oddsmakers currently have the Nuggets listed as 8-point favorites versus the Mavericks, while the game's total has not yet been posted.

Josh Howard dropped 32 points to help the Mavericks take down the lowly Clippers 103-90 last time out. The Mavericks failed to cover the 14-point spread, while the 193 points made it OVER the posted total of 189.

Jerry Stackhouse added 20 points for the Mavericks, and Erick Dampier chipped in with 19 in the win.

J.R. Smith came off the bench to score a team-high 27 points to help the Nuggets defeat the Grizzlies 120-106 last time out. The Nuggets covered the 8.5-point spread, but the 226 points fell UNDER the posted total of 229.

Allan Iverson tossed in 26 points, and Carmelo Anthony added 23 points with nine rebounds in the win.

Current streak:
Denver has won 3 straight games.

Team records:
Dallas: 45-26 SU, 30-37-4 ATS
Denver: 43-28 SU, 39-32 ATS

Dallas most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 8-2
Before playing Golden State are 7-3
After playing LA Clippers are 6-4
After a win are 6-4

Denver most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 3-7
Before playing Golden State are 10-0
After playing Memphis are 9-1
After a win are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Dallas's last 15 games when playing Denver
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games at home

Next up:
Dallas at Golden State, Sunday, March 30
Denver home to Golden State, Saturday, March 29

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Betting News and Notes - Mar.27

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Golden State Warriors

- The Portland Trail Blazers and the Golden State Warriors will both be gunning for a victory on Thursday when they meet at Oracle Arena.

Odds aren't yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.

The Trail Blazers dominated in the first half, and came away with a convincing 102-82 win over the Wizards on Tuesday. The Trail Blazers won the game as a slight 1-point underdog, while the combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 187.

Martell Webster scored 23 points to lead the Trail Blazers, while Jarrett Jack added 17 points, five rebounds and six assists in the win.

The Warriors lost 111-108 to the Lakers last time out, as 2.5-point underdogs at home. The combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 229.

Baron Davis had 27 points with nine rebounds and seven assists in the loss.

Team records:
Portland: 38-34 SU, 37-35 ATS
Golden State: 43-27 SU, 30-40 ATS

Portland most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 7-3
Before playing Charlotte are 1-6
After playing Washington are 3-7
After a win are 3-7

Golden State most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 5-5
Before playing Denver are 3-7
After playing LA Lakers are 5-5
After a loss are 10-0

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Portland's last 11 games when playing Golden State
Portland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
Portland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Golden State's last 11 games when playing Portland
Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland

Next up:
Portland home to Charlotte, Saturday, March 29
Golden State at Denver, Saturday, March 29

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Betting News and Notes - Mar.27

NCAA TOURNAMENT

WEST REGION


(7) West Virginia (26-10, 16-13-1 ATS) vs. (3) Xavier (29-6, 15-16 ATS)

Xavier, which opened the Tournament with a 73-61 win over Georgia as an 8½-point favorite last Thursday, held off Purdue 85-78 Saturday as a 2½-point chalk. The Musketeers are on an eye-popping 15-2 SU run – with both losses coming to Atlantic 10 rival St. Joe’s – but despite two straight covers, they are just 8-9 ATS during this stretch.

West Virginia, coming off a 75-65 win over Arizona as a two-point favorite in its tourney opener, bounced second-seeded Duke 73-67 Saturday as a four-point underdog. The Mountaineers, who rallied from a six-point halftime deficit, are 10-3 in their last 13 starts, but have been just average against the number over that span, going 7-5-1 ATS.

The Musketeers carry several positive ATS streaks into this contest, including 8-1 in the Tournament, 6-0 as a Tournament underdog, 5-0 in non-conference play, 25-7 at neutral venues and 11-2 as a neutral-site pup. On the negative side, Xavier is 1-4 ATS in its last five after a SU win and 1-6 ATS in its last seven against the Big East.

The Mountaineers are on numerous pointspread upticks, including 8-0-1 in the Tournament, 4-0 as a Tournament favorite, 20-6 as a chalk of less seven points, 9-3 as a neutral-site favorite, 15-6 overall at neutral venues, 44-20-1 outside the Big East and 30-14-1 overall as a favorite. One negative note: West Virginia is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 following a spread-cover.

Underdogs have gone 10-6 ATS the past two years in the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 round. Last week, favorites went 20-11-1 ATS in the first round but just 9-7 ATS in the second round.

The over is on runs for Xavier of 5-0 in Tournament play, 6-1 in non-conference action, 5-1 with the Musketeers as an underdog and 7-2 at neutral sites. For West Virginia, the over is on streaks of 7-2 overall, 4-0 against the Atlantic 10, 4-1 with the Mountaineers favored and 4-1 following a spread-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


(12) Western Kentucky (29-6, 19-12 ATS) vs. (1) UCLA (33-3, 20-13-2 ATS)

UCLA squeaked past Texas A&M 51-49 Saturday, falling far short of covering the 9½-point spread and once again apparently being let off the hook by referees with a questionable no-call on A&M’s final shot. The victory came after an opening-round 70-29 spanking of 16th-seeded Mississippi Valley State, cashing despite being a 31½-point chalk. The Bruins are on a 12-0 SU run but are just 6-6 ATS, including 2-4 ATS in their last six starts.

Western Kentucky stunned fifth-seeded Drake 101-99 on an overtime buzzer-beater in the first round as a four-point ‘dog, then topped another upstart by beating 13th-seeded San Diego 72-63 Sunday as a five-point chalk. The Hilltoppers have been winning and paying out lately, carrying a 7-0 ATS streak and 8-0 SU run into their first Sweet 16 game since 1993.

In the history of the Tournament, no No. 12 seed has ever defeated a No. 1 seed.

The Bruins are in the Sweet 16 for the third straight year, going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS in the last two. Also, they’re on pointspread runs of 35-16 after an ATS setback and 37-17 on Thursdays, but they are 1-4 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning percentage above .600.

The Hilltoppers are on a bevy of positive ATS runs, including 8-0 at neutral venues, 6-0 following a spread-cover, 12-2 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 5-1 on Thursday, 13-3 versus teams with a winning SU mark and 38-14 in non-conference play. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven as a neutral-site pup and 5-2 in their last seven as a ‘dog of seven to 12½ points.

UCLA is heavy on “under” trends, including 10-1 as a Tournament favorite, 16-4 overall in the Tournament, 4-0 outside the Pac-10, 9-4 in neutral sites and 8-3 as a neutral-site chalk. For Western Kentucky, the over is 13-4-1 in its last 18 neutral-site contests, but the under is 14-6 in its last 20 after a SU win and 15-7 in its last 22 starts overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


EAST REGION

(4) Washington St. (26-8, 18-15 ATS) vs. (1) North Carolina (34-2, 22-11 ATS)


North Carolina opened the Tournament with a 113-74 pounding of 16th-seeded Mount St. Mary’s as a 25-point favorite, then easily dispatched eighth-seeded Arkansas in nearly the same fashion on Sunday, rolling to a 108-77 rout laying 9½ points. The Tar Heels have won 13 straight but their back-to-back spread-covers come on the heels of a 4-7 ATS slump.

This is the Tar Heels’ third trip to the Sweet 16 in the last four years, and they won the last two times they reached this round (1-1 ATS).

While North Carolina got it done with offense last week, Washington State relied on stifling defense to advance, holding 13th-seeded Winthrop and 5th-seeded Notre Dame to a combined 81 points in a pair of blowout wins. First the Cougars rolled to a 71-40 win over Winthrop as a 10-point favorite, then they flattened Notre Dame 61-41 as a 2½-point chalk Saturday. The Cougars are 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS in their last 12 outings, including 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four

During their current 6-7 ATS stretch, the Tar Heels are 2-5 as a favorite. Otherwise, the pointspread trends are all positive for Roy Williams’ troops, including 7-1 against the Pac-10, 4-1 in the Tournament, 20-7 against winning teams, 38-14-1 after a spread-cover and 40-17-1 in non-conference play.

The Cougars are on pointspread runs of 5-0 on Thursday, 5-1 as a pup of 7 to 12½ points and 5-2 outside the Pac-10, but they are 1-5 ATS in their last six as an underdog and are on a rather unique ATS slide of 0-6 against an opponent that has scored 100 points or more in its previous game.

For Carolina, which ranks second in the nation in scoring offense at 90 ppg, the over is on streaks of 7-2-1 overall, 5-1 in the Tournament, 7-2 outside the ACC and 19-7-1 as a chalk. But the under is 8-1 in its last nine against the Pac-10. For Washington State, which has the nation’s second-ranked defense allowing just 56.1 ppg, the under is 7-3 in its last 10 overall, 30-12-1 in its last 43 non-conference clashes and 5-0 after allowing less than 50 points in its previous game.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA


(3) Louisville (26-8, 19-12-1 ATS) vs. (2) Tennessee (31-4, 17-14 ATS)

After struggling to put away No. 15 seed American 72-57 as a 19-point chalk in an opening-round contest, Tennessee got all it could handle from seventh-seeded Butler on Sunday before prevailing 76-71 in overtime, barely covering the 4½-point spread. The cover snapped a three-game ATS slide for the Volunteers, who have won six of their last seven and 15 of their last 17.

Louisville, after breezing past Boise State 79-61 as a 14-point favorite in its first-round matchup, pasted Oklahoma 78-48 Sunday as a seven-point favorite, moving to 4-1 ATS in its last five games. The Cardinals are on an 11-2 SU and ATS tear in their last 13 overall.

The Cardinals haven’t made it to the Sweet 16 since they beat Washington 93-79 as a 1½-point favorite to advance all the way to the 2005 Final Four. Meanwhile, Tennessee has advanced to the second weekend of the Tournament for the second straight year, getting ousted by top-seeded Ohio State 85-84 as a 4 ½-point underdog after blowing a 17-point halftime lead.

These two teams met four straight seasons between 2001 and 2005, with Louisville going 4-0 SU but Tennessee getting the cash three times. The Cardinals, favored in all four matchups, posted an 85-62 blowout in January 2005, covering as a 15½-point home chalk.

The Vols, who were the only No. 2 seed to cover in the second round, are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 as a ‘dog of up to 6½ points, 22-7 ATS in their last 29 as a ‘dog of any price and 15-7-1 ATS in their past 23 outside the Southeastern Conference. However, they are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 neutral-site games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a neutral-site pup and 1-5 ATS in their last six against the Big East.

The Cardinals enter this contest with nothing but positive ATS trends, including 17-5-1 overall, 5-2-1 in the Tournament, 5-0-1 as a Tournament favorite, 4-0 in non-conference play, 9-1 after a SU win, 7-1 after a win of more than 20 points, 10-2-1 against winning teams, 8-2 as a chalk and 8-2 after a spread-cover.

For Tennessee, the under is on runs of 5-0 against the Big East, 4-1 outside the SEC and 9-4 when catching less than seven points. However, the over is 13-5 in the Vols’ last 18 at neutral venues and 4-1 in their last five after a SU win. Meanwhile, Louisville is riding “under” streaks of 10-3 against the SEC, 4-1-1 in non-conference play and 14-5-1 after a SU win, but the over is 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last five when favored by less than seven and 8-3 in Thursday games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE


NBA

Dallas (45-26, 30-37-4 ATS) at Denver (43-28, 39-32 ATS)


After a five-game road trip, the Nuggets return home to the Pepsi Center riding a three-game SU and a four-game ATS winning streak as they host the depleted Mavericks.

Denver started its trip with consecutive losses at Detroit and Philadelphia, then rallied to win the next three at New Jersey (125-114), Toronto (109-100) and Memphis (120-106) over a stretch of four days. The Nuggets cashed in each of those three contests, and they’re 10-2 ATS in their last 12 overall (8-4 SU) after going 2-7 ATS (3-6 SU) in their previous nine. Now, George Karl’s team is back at the Pepsi looking for its sixth consecutive SU and ATS triumph in front of the home fans. In fact, Denver is 16-2 SU in its last 18 at home and 10-3 ATS in the last 13.

The Mavericks come into tonight’s game having dropped three of four (0-4 TS) after previously going on a 5-0 SU and ATS spree. The lone victory came on Friday at home, as Dallas thumped the Clippers 103-90, but came up just short as a 13½-point chalk while playing without injured All-Star Dirk Nowitzki. Since the start of February, the Mavs have been a bad bet, going 11-14-1 ATS in their last 26 games.

So far this season, the Mavs and Nuggets have squared off twice – both in Dallas – with the teams splitting the matchups but Denver getting the cash in each contest. Over their last 10 meetings, even though the Mavericks are 7-3 SU, Denver is 6-4 ATS, including three straight spread-covers dating to last year.

The Mavericks come into this game 5-1 ATS their last six road games and 42-20 ATS their last 62 as an underdog. However, Dallas is 1-4 ATS its last five games coming off a non-cover and 0-5 ATS its last five against Western Conference opponents.

Denver is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 as a favorite, but only 1-4 ATS its last five home games following road trips of seven days or more.

The Mavs have stayed under the total in four of their last five, while Denver has remained low in its last two after going over the posted price in 19 of its previous 24 outings. Finally, the under is 11-4 in the last 15 series meetings, though the total has alternated in the last five, with the most recent battle staying low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER

Gametimepicks.com

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Betting News and Notes - Mar.27

Huggins and Xavier know all about each other

The West Virginia coach is a long-time nemesis of the Musketeers, having coached at crosstown rival Cincinnati.

PHOENIX — What is this, the Skyline Chili Crosstown Shootout?

It's Bob Huggins against Xavier all over again.

The Cincinnati-Xavier basketball rivalry could make USC-UCLA hoops look friendly, and now Huggins, the old nemesis, is sending his West Virginia team against Xavier in an NCAA West Regional semifinal.

"I'm sure a lot of Xavier fans are glad he's not coaching UC anymore because when he was there, they were a real hard team to beat," said Xavier forward C.J. Anderson, a Cincinnati native who remembers when Huggins prowled the sideline.

"That's like our version of North Carolina-Duke, or Ohio State-Michigan in football," Anderson said. "I've got people that like UC. I don't call them during that week. They don't call me. It's personal whenever we meet them, and Coach Huggins, he had a huge part in that."

This is not the same Xavier that Huggins used to do battle with when Pete Gillen and Skip Prosser were there.

Sean Miller is the coach now, and Huggins has known the 39-year-old former Pittsburgh point guard since the days Miller was a dribbling prodigy who appeared on "The Tonight Show" with Johnny Carson.

"I like Sean. I have known Sean pretty much his whole life," Huggins said. "I know his father John very, very well. John and my dad have been friends and coaching colleagues for 30, 35 years."

If it seems as though Cincinnati days were another life for Huggins, well, they sort of were.

He had a near-fatal heart attack in 2002, then was forced to resign at Cincinnati in 2005 after a controversy-filled tenure that included a drunk-driving arrest, NCAA rules violations and poor graduation rates in addition to three Elite Eights and the 1992 Final Four. He spent one year at Kansas State before leaving for West Virginia, his alma mater.

A changed man? Maybe not.

"It's like New Year's Eve," Huggins said. "You say, 'I'm not going to do this,' and about the third of January you are back to doing what you did before.

"I haven't really changed all that much. I mean, you know, I would like to sit here and tell you that I probably eat better, but look at me. That's obviously not the case."

He still rants and raves, and his heart attack, West Virginia center Jamie Smalligan said, is something he jokes about.

"Sometimes in one of his more fiery moments in practice, say, if somebody misses a block-out . . . he'll just say, 'I was dead on the floor for two minutes and I could block that guy out,' " Smalligan said.

This West Virginia team isn't vintage Huggins, not with a deadeye shooter like Alex Ruoff. But he has helped make a star out of junior Joe Alexander, a 6-foot-8 forward who scored 13 points his freshman season, averaged 10 last season, but in six March games has scored 32, 29, 22, 34, 14 and 22 points.

"I thought he was going to be all fiery all the time, but in reality he is just fiery some of the time and the rest of the time he is calm and just teaches us like a normal teacher does," Alexander said.

That's hardly the usual image of Huggins.

"I understand to make a good story there's got to be white hats and black hats. Otherwise we never would have had a cowboy movie. That's the way it is," Huggins said. "And I'm good with it. I'm 54 years old, been shocked back to life three times. I'm fine with it."

It's Huggins and Xavier, and Huggins doesn't care who wears the black hat.

"Whether it is Xavier or UCLA or Western Kentucky, I mean, it is a game that's a very, very important game for both teams because the one that loses is done, and the one that wins gets to advance," Huggins said.

One team, in other words, survives.

latimes.com

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Betting News and Notes - Mar.27

WEST REGIONAL NOTES

Rogers keeping it all in context

PHOENIX -- You know you've hit the big time when you have to ask your parents' permission to go over the 1,500 text messages your calling plan allows . . . just so you can respond to well-wishers.

So it has gone for Western Kentucky guard Ty Rogers since his overtime buzzer-beating three-pointer sank Drake in the first round and extended the Hilltoppers' season.

Rogers, a senior who averages 6.5 points a game, told reporters this week that he had 172 text messages waiting for him when he took his first post-heroics look at his phone.

Reaction to his shot has come from all corners, and also from very close to home.

Rogers said Wednesday that he had heard from his former Lyon County (Ky.) High principal, who told him everyone at his old school had seen his now-famous shot.

"They had TVs on in each of the classes," Rogers said. "They said when the shot went down my old high school pretty much erupted."

You might not think of Western Kentucky when you think of Kentucky basketball . . . but maybe you should.

The Hilltoppers have a .729 winning percentage the past seven seasons, which is better than Louisville (.719) and nearly equal to Kentucky (.731).

Western Kentucky also is no stranger to the NCAA tournament, having made 20 appearances. And this is the second regional semifinal for Coach Darrin Horn, who was a sophomore guard for the Hilltoppers when they made it this far in 1993.

UCLA is a 12 1/2 -point favorite tonight, even though only one of Western Kentucky's losses -- by 10 points against Southern Illinois in November -- was by more than six points.

The Hilltoppers start three guards and two 6-foot-9 forwards and Horn was asked what his plan was to deal with Bruins center Kevin Love and whether his team had faced a player of his caliber.

"We're hoping he gets sick, that's the main thing we're looking for," Horn quipped before adding in a more serious tone, "We have not seen a guy like him this year individually that is capable of putting up those kind of numbers" -- Love averages 17.3 points and 10.6 rebounds -- "and being that kind of threat."

Boris Siakam, a 6-7, 225-pound senior forward for Western Kentucky, is looking forward to introducing himself to UCLA's Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Alfred Aboya.

Like the two Bruins, Siakam is from Cameroon. He came to the United States five years ago to pursue basketball, first at Caverna (Ky.) High and then for Western Kentucky.

Like Mbah a Moute and Aboya, Siakam played soccer first before his height drew him to basketball. "We will all have the chance to meet on court during the warmup," Siakam said. "It will feel good to see those guys from my country. They're great players and I hear they're great guys."

Mbah a Moute and Aboya are from the capital city of Yaounde. Siakam is from Douala, the largest city in Cameroon. "That's why I don't know him," Mbah a Moute said. "I only know the Yaounde guys."

Michael Roll sat in the laugh-filled UCLA locker room with his eyes closed and his earphones blocking out the buzz. Roll's UCLA season was ended Dec. 31 when he ruptured a tendon in his left foot.

Though Bruins Coach Ben Howland hasn't called an official end to Roll's season, the junior swingman said his foot still aches and that he is going to see his doctor next week.

Surgery is a possibility. "It depends what the doctor thinks," Roll said. "It's still pretty much sore. We've got to figure this out."

Roll played in 11 NCAA tournament games during his freshman and sophomore seasons and has found wearing suits and fetching loose balls during pregame warmups isn't satisfying.

"It's real tough," Roll said. "I know what the excitement is like to get this far in the tournament. I got chills walking into the Honda Center last week with the crowd roaring from the start. Then I don't get to warm up or do anything. I'm so excited for the rest of the guys, and I look forward to the show they keep putting on. But I miss being out there."

Bruins junior Josh Shipp went through the same thing two years ago. As UCLA made it to the national championship game, Shipp, who was recovering from hip surgery, was forced to sit and watch.

"The only good thing about it," Shipp said, "is when you come back the next year it's even better."

Four of Xavier's top six players shoot 83% from the free-throw line or better. So who is best on the team?

Well, that would probably be Coach Sean Miller, a 90% shooter when he played at Pittsburgh.

"Is anybody a better free-throw shooter than me?" Miller said Wednesday, repeating a reporter's question. "No. I don't think that's close. If I can do one thing in life, I can shoot free throws."

latimes.com

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Betting News and Notes - Mar.27

BEHIND THE LINES

UCLA, Washington State are not popular choices

Many bettors are leery of the favored Bruins and the underdog Cougars.

Of the four NCAA tournament games to be played today, UCLA and Washington State have struggled to gain betting support.

The Bruins, the top-seeded team in the West Region with a 33-3 record, are favored by 12 1/2 points over Western Kentucky but have been picked to cover the point spread by only 35% of the bettors, according to

theSpread.com's betting chart as of Wednesday afternoon.

A big reason for the low number of UCLA wagers has been the Bruins' penchant to win games but not cover the spread, which has been exposed in their current winning streak.

Since losing to Washington on Feb. 10, the Bruins are 12-0 but only 6-6 against the spread, including a 1-3 record in their last four postseason games.

UCLA will be playing a Western Kentucky team that has covered the line in seven consecutive games and is 13-3 against the spread in its last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600.

While bettors are skeptical about the Bruins covering as a favorite, they are hesitant to support Washington State against North Carolina, the top-seeded team in the East Regional.

The Tar Heels (34-2) are listed as eight-point favorites and have picked up 70% of the bets to cover the spread against Washington State, according to theSpread.com.

But the Cougars are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as an underdog of seven to 12 1/2 points.

According to VegasInsider.com's betting trend, UCLA has received 47% of the bets against the spread against Western Kentucky, while Washington State was limited to 21% for its game against North Carolina.

Some NCAA tournament proposition bets at Bodoglife.com: Which top-seeded team will be the first to be eliminated? UCLA (11-4), North Carolina and Kansas (13-4) and Memphis (6-5); Which conference will have the most teams in the Elite Eight? Pac-10 and Big 12 (3-1), Big East (13-2) and Big Ten (14-1); Which region will the national champion come from? East (3-2), West and Midwest (5-2) and South (13-4).

latimes.com

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Betting News and Notes - Mar.27

Bettors beat: Defense means dollars in NCAA Tournament
Covers.com

The Florida Gators won’t win the national title this season, after winning the previous two years. Those Florida teams had the reputation as wide-open, attacking offensive teams. And that was true. Billy Donovan had tremendous depth and a balanced lineup, one that could run the court with anyone, or slow it down and bang the boards if the opponent wanted to.

One thing that is often forgotten is that those Florida teams were also outstanding defensively. In last year’s SEC tourney, the Gators allowed 56, 57 and 59 points! In the Big dance they held Butler to 57 points and 40 percent shooting, then held UCLA to 39 percent shooting while killing the Bruins on the glass 42-25.

All of which brings up the importance of defense as we move into the Sweet 16 and beyond. Washington State has gone 2-0 under the total allowing 40 and 41 points in two tournament games. What has Bob Huggins brought to West Virginia basketball? The same tough defense he got Kansas State to play. The Mountaineers just held Duke to 38 percent shooting in a 73-67 upset that went under the total. Duke was 5-of-22 from beyond the arc.

One player remarked this week about when West Virginia turned things around: “Tennessee plays the same kind of defense, in your face and constantly trying to bother you. And we were constantly on our heels, not used to that type of defense,” West Virginia junior Alex Ruoff said. “That's one thing coach Huggins can't stand – someone playing scared and not attacking defenses like that. And he let us know about it.”

With teams fighting for so much – advance or go home – you can see why all-out defense would be more intense this time of the season. One of the teams I had an asterisk next to going into the Tournament was Washington State. In my pregame analysis I noted:

I expect the better defensive team to win this interesting matchup, featuring Notre Dame's explosive offense vs. Washington State's dominant defense. While the Irish outcored opponents by an 80.2-69.6 margin this season, the Cougars outscored their opponents by a 67.2-56.5. That's a very similar margin of victory.

However, if we look at the games which were played away from home, we find that the Cougars were significantly stronger. Washington State is 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS away from home, outscoring opponents by a 66.9 to 58.9 margin. Notre Dame, on the other hand, is 8-7 SU/ATS away from home, outscoring opponents by a 75.9 to 72.5 margin. Both teams were impressive in the first round, but Washington State was more dominant. After receiving a wake-up call in the first half, the Cougars crushed Winthrop by a 41-10 count in the second half of Thursday's game.

Notre Dame struggled somewhat against the top defenses of the conference, losing vs. the likes of Louisville, Georgetown and UConn. The Irish are 15-19 SU the past three seasons against teams which allow 77 points or less per game. Looking at the teams that defeated the Cougars, we find that they were primarily teams like UCLA, Stanford and USC, which play strong to excellent defense. The Cougars didn't have much trouble against high-scoring teams though, as they went 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS against teams which score 77 or more points per game. Looking back further and we find that they're a profitable 14-4 SU/ATS their last 18 against teams which average 77 or more points per game.

My second round Game of the Year was an easy cover, as the superior defensive team, Washington State, won 61-41 as a 3-point favorite. Notice who controlled the tempo with that final score? That’s another edge defensive teams can have. Up-tempo teams that rely on offense like to get into a rhythm, but that rhythm can easily get thrown off by attacking defensive teams that play physical or get in their face. It may not always be pretty to watch, but the bottom line in the handicapping business is turning a profit.

That's another advantage about defense: It really doesn't disappear. Strong defensive teams can always play the same way – intense! That’s not quite the case with offense, which can go hot or cold because it depends on touch, rhythm and execution.

I used defense in another game, this time regarding the total, playing UNLV-Kansas under. The Jayhawks offense rightfully gets a lot of credit, but their defense is also strong. In fact, they allowed an average of just 61.6 points per game on the season, including just 27.5 in the first half, holding opponents to 38.2 percent shooting. The UNLV defense was also playing well. The Rebels held Kent State to 58 points in the first round.

Even more impressive was the fact that they held BYU to 61 points in their previous game, as the Cougars came into that game averaging 74.5 points per game. Prior to that, the Rebels limited Utah to a mere 55 points. Including those results, they've now held eight of their last nine opponents to 65 points or less and 10 of their past 15 to 61 points or less. UNLV has seen the under go 7-3 this season when listed as an underdog and played under in 10 of the last 15 times they faced a team which averages 77 or more points per game.

Ohio State was an under machine last season behind Greg Oden as they stormed to the NCAA title game. The Buckeyes may have lost Oden and Mike Conley, but last week they shut down Cal, allowing 56 points in an NIT tournament game that went under the total by double digits.

It’s not just the players but the coaching staff, like Huggins at West Virginia, who demand defense from their players. Remember: Great offensive teams can go cold, but great defensive teams don't suddenly forget how to play tough 'D'!

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Betting News and Notes - Mar.27

West Sweet 16 Preview: California Love
By: BoDog Sportsbook   

Plenty of upsets in the West region, but the UCLA Bruins are still the favorite.

There were plenty of upsets in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, and the West region had a chunk of them.

No. 4 UConn and No. 5 Drake fell in the first round, while No. 2 Duke made it as far as the second until No. 7 West Virginia easily dispatched them.

What this means is that most bracketologists were right about the West: No. 1 UCLA has the easiest ride to the Final Four. But it doesn't mean they can put their game on cruise control.

No. 3 Xavier and West Virginia have both shown that they could give UCLA a tough game in the Elite Eight, while anything's possible for No. 12 Western Kentucky with their two stars Courtney Lee and Tyrone Brazelton playing lights-out basketball.

Bruins' First-Half Woes Could Be Their Undoing

As 12.5-point favorites over Western Kentucky, it appears that the UCLA Bruins are still seen as the most dominant squad in the West region. And why not? On paper, the Hilltoppers aren't in the same league as the Bruins. Xavier has the balance to hang but not the stardom. And West Virginia has the stardom to hang (Joe Alexander) but not the balance.

But there's one thing that should concern UCLA fans come Thursday: their first half performances.

The Bruins haven't led at halftime in six of their last eight games, and one of those first-half wins should be a write-off, since it was against an outclassed Mississippi Valley State team in the first round.

The Bruins have gotten so used to their first-half woes, it seems like they're starting to look at the positive side for their struggles.

"That was reminiscent of a lot of games we seem to be in lately, where we're having to make dramatic comebacks in the last few minutes," UCLA coach Ben Howland said after their 51-49 comeback win over Texas A&M in the second round. "But the one thing that I love about our team is that they know in their heart they're always going to win the game. They're going to find a way."

They could be lost by the time the second half tips off versus the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky play their best ball in the first half, averaging 38 points, and they haven't lost all year when they've led. And though they've allowed their past two opponents to make runs in the second, the Hilltoppers, unlike Texas A&M have the stars to keep UCLA at bay if they make their usual second-half run.

Western Kentucky's backcourt combination of Lee and Brazelton has shown that they have the star power to score during pressure situations. Lee had 29 points against No. 13 San Diego, including four of five makes from 3-point land while Brazelton dropped 33 and hit six 3s in their dramatic win over Drake.

"He hit a big shot, but he hit big shots all day," San Diego coach Bill Grier said about Lee after their 72-63 loss. "I think he's a future NBA kid. He played a terrific game at the right time."

The Hilltoppers will try to up the tempo early to keep UCLA from using their lock-down D in the half court. If the Bruins don't respond, they could dig themselves a hole they might not be able to get out of.

Xavier's Balance Give Them the Edge Over West Virginia

Unlike the other three squads in the West that made it to the Sweet 16, the Xavier Musketeers don't rely on one or two stars to win. All they use is balance.

"We have a number of different players that can answer the bell on offense," Musketeers coach Sean Miller said. "It's a really unique team to guard, because on different nights different people can beat you."

All five starters on the Musketeers score at least 10 points per game, but not one averages over 12. It's that kind of unselfishness that makes them a handful for any team looking to find a way to stifle their offense.

"That's why I love this team,” senior guard Stanley Burrell said. “We play for each other. We don't do any individual things whatsoever. It's all about the team and how we can help Xavier get to the next level. I'm so proud of these guys."

No. 6 Purdue felt the wrath of Xavier's balanced attack in the second round. Only one player on the team was held scoreless and four reached double digits. With that kind of balance, the fairly stingy Boilermaker defense (they hold opponents to 62.4 points per game) gave up 85 points in regulation and 50 in the second half, shocking Purdue coach Matt Painter.

"At times, we just could not stop them," Painter said.

That could make it a tough night for West Virginia (even though they're currently favored by one point). The Mountaineers allowed Duke and Arizona to score over 60 points, and their offense can be contained because it relies on one player: Joe Alexander.

Arizona was able to stifle him in the first round. He had just 14 points off 4-12 shooting after averaging 26.3 in his past six, which made for a closer contest than the final score (75-65) would indicate. Xavier has a better defense than Arizona (the Musketeers rank 48th in the NCAA while the Wildcats ranked 130th) and should be able to dispatch the Mountaineers if their other role players don't step up.

March Madness Betting
West region Final Four odds
Team (Seed) Odds
Western Kentucky 14/1
West Virginia 9/2
UCLA 2/5
Xavier 9/2

Best Bet

Can't go wrong with Western Kentucky against the spread at the current price of +12.5. The Bruins struggle out the gate while the Hilltoppers thrive. That should make the game close even if the Bruins turn it up in the second. UCLA will likely pull off another nail biter, but the Hilltoppers should cover.

Headed to the Final Four

Despite my reservations that they're too relaxed in the first half, I'm going to stick with UCLA in this one. Xavier has the defensive mentality and the unselfishness to make it a tough matchup for the Bruins in the Elite Eight, but the Bruins have all those things along with two stars, Kevin Love and Darren Collison. As many predicted, the Bruins will make it out of the West.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Betting News and Notes - Mar.27

Miami at Detroit, 8:05 ET
Miami: 8-19 ATS off a road loss
Detroit: 11-6 ATS playing on back-to-back days

Portland at Golden State, 10:35 ET TNT
Portland: 12-2 ATS off SU win as underdog
Golden State: 8-2 Under vs. Portland

(TC) Dallas at Denver, 8:05 ET TNT
Dallas: 0-4 ATS at Denver
Denver: 29-19 ATS as favorite

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
44328
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
275412
Average Posts Per Hour:
3.0
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3458
Newest User:
Johnny Galloway
Members Online:
0
Guests Online:
2129

Online: 
There are no members online

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com