Wednesday Service Plays
Re: Wednesday Service Plays
Atlanta -8 (POD)
The Hawks beat this team by 16 at home back in November, the Bucks then of course won at home back in January by about 8 points, the Bucks do come off a road loss to the Heat, but if this team was truly going to bounce-back they would have gotten some revenge on the Heat on the road after losing to them at home. Bell is listed as questionable for this game for the Bucks, every game in the East is critical for the Hawks for the playoffs, they come off a loss to an Eastern Conference foe in the Bulls on the road, they return home to face a Bucks team with revenge, off a loss to continue to competing for the playoffs. This is very similar to when the Hawks lost to the Rockets on the road and returned home to handle the Clips with ease. I need to be wary of going against the better teams in the league or against teams in a playoff hunt such as the Spurs yesterday with the Magic, but I have no qualms about going against the Bucks who are not headed to the playoffs this year and not the highest of quality teams on the road (although a a decent home team).
Here is my reasoning behind Bradley. Keep in mind that both of these teams are ranked similarly - just above the top 90 cutoff. Bradley has defeated two teams that more difficult one in the Bearcats of Cincy from the Big East and the other of Ohio who are both top 100 teams. They face a Virginia team that has not looked sharp against ODU nor against Richmond , two teams in the top 140. However, I hate laying 3 units on 6.5 points - although Virginia has not covered either spread against two games barely winning them. I nearly took Bradley here for 1 unit on the moneyline +245, but decided to take the 6.5 points and lay the 3 units. I6.5 points is my cutoff and given how Virginia seems to be getting down at the half and closing the game in the 2nd half, I lean on Bradley for the first half, but nevertheless, I'll take the 3 unit wager for the full game. This is at my cutoff for points for an underdog in the ballgame, but Bradley has played a tougher road to get here, Virginia has not looked sharp against two teams outside the top 100, and their luck might be running out against Bradley who is within the top 100 and about 40 spots better than the 2 previous tams that UVA has not covered against in this tourney thus far.
Va Tech -8
I know the 8 points looks wonderful here for Ole Miss an SEC team, but Ole Miss has lost by this margin and more to teams like Alabama and LSU on the road and Virginia Tech is ranked about 50 spots higher than both of those teams. Virginia Tech is a young team, they love to ante up the score as they did against Morgan State and UAB and this teams feels slighted that they did not make it to the NIT and once again they are on ESPN2 and they area aware that teams across the nation as well as scouts will be watching them. I would not be surprised to see the Hokies, who play in a great atmosphere at Virginia Tech look to dominate an Ole Miss team at home and win by double-digits. I like the crowd behind Va Tech, they have played great thus far at home, Ole Miss now has to hit the road after 2 home wins in the tourney in the NIT, and face a Va Tech out tto prove that they should have made it to the NCAA tourney.
Is this the strongest play of the day, absolutely not. However, the Raptors come off a very dissappointing loss to the Nuggets where they collapsed by 8 points at the half (trust me I know, I was on the Raps over the Nugs in that game). The Raptors do have Bosh back, this is a big game for them as a morale booster, with playoff atmosphere in Toronto, this team needs this win, they haven't beat the Pistons the last 3 games and lost by 14 on the road earlier this year. I look for the Raps at home to get a big win here as remember the Pistons have lost 3 of their last 4 on the road with the sole win on the road being over the Knicks. I'll take the home team here as they started out as the dog and now sit at the favorite despite 2/3rds of the public being on the Pistons
Re: Wednesday Service Plays
15 Dime –
Take the points with Ole Miss tonight when they travel to take on Virginia Tech.
There’s no doubt Virginia Tech is rolling right now. They are on a 9-0 ATS run, having gone 7-2 SU during that span. But the one thing that keeps me from jumping on their bandwagon tonight is the level of competition they’ve played up to this point. Alabama-Birmingham and Morgan State are not high caliber opponents, so the margin of victory in those two games isn’t really an indicator of how good Virginia Tech is right now.
Mississippi, on the other hand, is a team that has some real value with this line. They knocked off Nebraska and UC-Santa Barbara in convincing fashion, and I feel like the Rebels are more than capable of hanging close tonight.
Sophomore guard David Huertas has been shooting well from the perimeter, which has opened up the inside for center Dwayne Curtis. If Huertas continues to shoot well tonight, not only will it allow Curtis to get good looks inside, it will help the Rebels on the offensive boards as well.
Take the points with Mississippi as they stay within the number tonight.
5 Dime –
Lay the points with the Hawks tonight when they host the Bucks.
The recent trend in this series has favored the home team, which has won and covered the last five meetings.
Atlanta is also vying for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot, so look for them to give an inspired effort tonight.
Milwaukee, which lost at lowly Miami on Monday, has dropped 10 of its last 12 games SU. They are also 0-5 SUATS in the last five road games since the All-Star break.
Lay the points with the Hawks as they grab the home win and cover.
Re: Wednesday Service Plays
Game: Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves
Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Minnesota ? AiS shows a 70% probability that Minnesota will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 43-16 ATS since 1996. Play against favorites of 10 or more points after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points and is a tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days. No doubt that Houston is a good team and one of the things they do very well is rebound the basketball. Note, however, that Minnesota is 15-5 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams that are outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons. Houston is not in a good role for this game and for some reason are not passing the ball nearly as much as they had during the incredible winning streak. Note that Houston is 8-22 ATS in home games after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists over the last 3 seasons.
Re: Wednesday Service Plays
New Orleans Hornets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Cleveland – AiS shows an 87% probability that Cleveland will win this game by 4 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 53-26 ATS for 67% since 2002. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after one or more consecutive overs and is a good offensive team scoring 98-102 PPG and is now facing an average offensive team scoring 92-98 PPG after 42+ games of the regular season. There are numerous angles running an avalanche of weaknesses against New Orleans – meaning that they support Cleveland or running against NO. Note that NO is 4-18 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team sporting a winning percentage of 51% to 60% when the game is taking place in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland has played it’s best games on numerous occasions in the second half of the season and/or against strong clubs. Note that they are 13-3 ATS versus good shooting teams making >=46% of their shots this season; 10-1 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams that are committing <=12 turnovers/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Cleveland is also in a good role coming off three straight games installed as favorites. Note that Cleveland is 21-9 ATS in home games after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite over the last 3 seasons. Take the Cavaliers.
Re: Wednesday Service Plays
Washington Wizards -7.0
One club in tonight's affair is still jockeying for playoff position, while the others season has been over for quite some time. Washington invades Seattle with its (36-34) SU mark good enough for the 5th seed in the Eastern Conference. They've posted a sub .500 mark on the road this season, (15-19), but they?ve been nothing but gold against the spread winning 21 of their 33 contests against the Vegas number. As for Seattle, it?s been a long season but it looks to be coming to an end very shortly. The Sonics have picked up 11 of their 17 wins this season at home, and they own a +.500 mark ATS at 17-16-1.
The Wizards last took the floor in Portland last night, and suffered a humiliating loss at the hands of the Trailblazers. Both LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy failed to play the entire game, yet the Wizards lost by a 102-82 final count. The 20-point defeat was embarrassing for the team, but not as embarrassing as it was for those that laid the 2-points with the ?Wizz?. The combined 184 points fell a couple points shy of the closing ?total? of 187. The loss snapped Washington?s 3-game SU winning streak, but they've been playing well of late and come into tonight's contest 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS. Pointspread players take note: the Wizards are a poor 7-9 ATS on 0 days rest this season.
Seattle beat Portland on this same floor just two days ago to snap their 11-game SU losing streak. They dominated the Blazers in the second half outscoring them 48-31, and ended up cashing their backers tickets as 8-point home pups with ease. The victory was the Sonics first at home since February 22nd when they beat the same Blazers squad by a 99-87 final count. Seattle is 10-8 ATS at home vs. +.500 teams this season.
Washington pounded the Sonics in their lone meeting this season back in early January. The 108-86 final tally saw the Wizards easily cover the 8.5-points and the combined total stay under the closing number of 202.5. Seattle hasn?t fared well against Washington recently going 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS their L/10 meetings. Along with their overall SU & ATS dominance over the Sonics, Washington has covered the spread in 5 of their L/6 visits to Seattle.
Re: Wednesday Service Plays
Game: Washington Wizards vs. Seattle SuperSonics
Prediction: Seattle SuperSonics Reason: I'm taking the points with SEATTLE. The Wizards, who got crushed by 20 points late last night, are just 7-13 SU the last 20 times that they played the second of back to back games. A closer look shows that only three of those seven wins came by greater than seven points. Last night's loss came against a Portland team which these same Sonics had beaten easily here at Seattle the previous night. Now, playing the second of back to back road games, the Wizards are being asked to lay more than a touchdown against a rested and revenge-minded Seattle squad. I feel that's asking far too much. I successfully played on the Sonics in their win over the Blazers, stating at the time that they'd be happy to "take a step down in class" to see Portland. It wasn't that I didn't respect the Blazers, as I actually like their team these days. Rather, it was because Seattle's previous string of games had come against the Nuggest, Suns, Lakers and Jazz, three of which came on the road. While the Wizards have played well this season, given their circumstances, they're still not currently in the class of the four 'heavyweights' listed above. In fact, as we saw last night, they weren't even in the same class as the Blazers. The Wizards closed as slight favorites for last night's loss but they're also just 4-6 ATS the last 10 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range though. During the same stretch, including Monday's victory, the Sonics were 9-5-1 ATS when listed as home underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. With the Sonics likely leaving town at the end of the season, the Seattle fans are starting to come out in full force. Off a big win, it'll be more of the same tonight. In Monday's game they chanted: "Save our Sonics..." any chance they could. As Kevin Durant commented: "I heard them and that's something I love. The crowd was into it tonight and that shows they're going to stick behind us." With the support of their loyal fans behind them, look for Durant and co. to build momentum off the win over the Blazers as they string together back to back strong efforts and improve to 5-1 ATS when playing a home game with an over/under line ranging from 200 to 204.5*Best Bet
Game: Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on the Heat and the Knicks to finsh OVER the number. I'm aware that the Heat are dealing with major injury issues and that they've really struggled to score points recently. That's already reflected in the line though, as tonight's over/under line is roughly 10 points lower than it was when these same two teams faced each other exactly two weeks ago. I feel that gives us excellent value with the OVER. A closer look at Miami's recent games show that they all came against teams that are/were still fighting for the playoffs, or at the very least, entertaining the idea. However, tonight they'll be facing a team that, like themselves, is completely out of the playoff race. I expect that to result in a lack of defense and a relatively high-scoring game. Since the meeting two weeks ago, the Knicks have faced five different opponents. All five of those games produced a minimum of 197 points and the two games which came against other teams which had no chance of the playoffs (Minnesota and Memphis) saw final combined scores of 226 and 207, respectively. Including those results, the Knicks have now seen the OVER go 16-9 their last 25 games. Note that the OVER is also 9-4 their last 13 games against teams from the Southeast. Meanwhile, we find the OVER at a perfect 7-0 on the season when the Heat have played a road game where the over/under line ranged from 185 to 189.5. With defense not being a high priority, I expect tonight's final combined score to finish above the relatively low number once again. *Blue Chip
Game: Edmonton Oilers vs. Minnesota Wild
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Wild and Oilers to finish UNDER the total. These teams played a high-scoring game against each other at Edmonton a couple of nights ago but I'm expecting a much tighter and lower-scoring contest this evening. Yesterday, I successfully played on the Rangers and Flyers to finish UNDER the number. That game had some similarities to this evening's game as it was the also the second game of a home and home series. The Flyers and Rangers finished 'over' the total in the first game but the second was a defensive affair with only two goals scored in regulation. I've found that happens fairly regularly (first game is high-scoring, second is low-scoring) in these home and home matchups, particularly as the playoffs draw closer and the games become significantly more meaningful. A closer look at Monday's game shows that the Oilers scored three goals on their first four shots. That forced the Wild to somewhat abandon their gameplan and caused a much more wide-open game. Minnesota coach Jacques Lemaire was quoted as saying: "It didn't look good....We were not ready to play. Period. Not ready to play. We played a little bit in the third because some of the guys were upset and they had to do something." That being said, I don't expect the Oilers to score three goals on their first four shots again this evening. In fact, the Wild have limited opponents to just 2.4 goals on home ice this season and they allowed just one goal in their last two games here combined. Those games finished with scores of 2-0 and 3-1. Including those results, the Wild have scored three goals or less in eight straight home games. Look for another low-scoring affair. *northwest division total of the month
PASS COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Re: Wednesday Service Plays
UNDER 144 HOU/TUL...
This is a "Steam Play" that I just received and was informed that they are about to send the order out immediately...I have a vested interest on the side of this match-up and because I did a lot of work and made this the CBI GAME of the MONTH, I also felt that any Value definately was with the Under so when this call came in, I went ahead and made it a 1* Client Wager also....Best of Luck, VR
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