Saturday Service Plays
Re: Saturday Service Plays
INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: NEW JERSEY vs PHILADELPHIA
Play: PHILADELPHIA 76'ers -9 (POD)
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: Sixers -9 (POD)
This is as a good a play as any out there today and I saw this line last night. Sixers remember lost to the Nets in overtime back in November, come off an upsetting loss to a good Magic team who got revenge for a previous loss and now they play a Nets team to who they have revenge against. The Sixers were one of the best teams in the league over the past few weeks having won their last 8 of 9 prior to losing to the Magic which makes them now 8 of 10. Very rarely does this team win straight up and not cover and some of their impressive home wins by margins include 34 against Seattle, beating Milwaukee by 20 on the road, the Clips by 26 on the road and even the Pistons outright on the road. The Nets are not a fabulous road team, as remember they lost to the Bulls by 16 on the road, Houston by 18, Dallas by 20 and New Orleans and the Spurs by 11 on the road. I look for the Sixes to win by double-digits and get their frustration out today
INDIAN COWBOY: MIAMI vs CHARLOTTE
Play: CHARLOTTE -17
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY SELECTION: Bobcats -17
Yes, I do love dogs, but what are good are dogs if they lose in certain spots. There is a reason why this line is huge today and that is because the Heat are simply horrible and the fact the Bobcats come off a very tough road trip. Remember, they have lost their last 5 ballgames and that road trip was very tough although they were competitive against Cleveland as well as Houston. The Bobcats also have revenge in this game losing by 20 to Magic earlier this year and of course, Marion is still questionable (trust me, I know, I have him on my fantasy team). Thus, Bobcats come home after a brutal road trip, they had covered 5 in a row including big home wins before that west road trip. They need a big win here, they have revenge, and I can see the Heat losing to a Bobcat team by 20 who is hungry for a win. I refuse to be afraid to make plays when I see value as if I feel like someone is in a good spot, or has a chance for a strong cover, a team is playing well or a team is just horrible, I am riding with it. I think 66% of the public here is wrong as well who side with the underdog in the Heat. The Heat are 1-4 ATS as underdogs of 13 points or more. Bobcats are 4-1 ATS as favorites of -11.5 or greater.
INDIAN COWBOY: SACRAMENTO vs MEMPHIS
Play: Memphis (NBA) ML +105
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY SELECTION: Memphis ML +105
Could the Kings win this game by 1 point, I doubt it as I will just take the ML here and reduce the juice as I think the Grizzlies likely win this game outright. Look this team is playing well, they nearly won at Golden State as big double-digit dogs, they beat the Knicks last night on the road after leading late at Minny. This is a good team when they are healthy and it is no surprise they are balling out when Mike Miller has come back. With Gay, Warrick and Miller, this team can shoot the lights out of the ball. The Kings are a bit banged up and it is apparent they are not going to the playoffs, Beno is likely not to play and sure the Kings can win here but I think it is a tough stretch for them to get this road win as the Grizzlies are playing very well and the line is indicative of it. The Grizz have covered their last 4 and I am going to ride the train here as well as I think they cash on the money-line. This game is likely a shootout, but I'll take the home dog here. I think 75% of the public is wrong here today who side with the Kings, the Kings are 0-6 ATS when facing a team with a losing record at home - meaning they are not covering against the weaker teams in the league. Memphis is 4-0 ATS when facing a team with a straight up losing record meaning they are beating the other weaker teams in the league.
INDIAN COWBOY: NY Knicks vs Minnesota
Play: Minnesota (NBA) -9
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY SELECTION: Minnesota (NBA) -9
Like I said earlier, I think this is a day of favorites in the NBA this Saturday as if there are dogs that show up it is likely Memphis, the Bucks, the Clippers, the Sonics etc.... Minny comes off a tough loss to Indiana and this is a team that is showing life of late beating an upstart Memphis team at home, they did well against the Clippers and the Knicks occasionally do show up on the road - but Minny has revenge here, the Knicks can simply be horrible on the road as you saw in the Dallas game, Richardson is questionable and Randolph is out and it only takes one weak quarter for this team to lack focus such as against the Pacers. I think Minny can win this game by double-digits here as the Knicks are 1-5 ATS as road dogs and the trend that I liked the most is that Minny is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 ballgames after a straight up loss of 10 points or more. I think they bounce-back fairly well here at home.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Dr. Bob COLLEGE
Wisconsin (-5) over Kansas State
22-Mar-08 01:20 PM Pacific Time
Kansas State surprised me by beating a very good USC team, but I’d be even more surprised if the Wildcats come close to winning this game. Wisconsin is 30-4 straight up and their 4 losses all came to teams that I rate higher than the Wildcats (Duke, Marquette, and Purdue twice). Kansas State is certainly capable of beating a good team, as a home win over Kansas and 1st round victory over USC would attest, but the Wildcats haven’t been able to consistently beat good teams this season. Kansas State is still just 4-8 straight up and 4- 8 ATS in 12 games against other NCAA Tournament teams and the Cats were on an 0-7 ATS run before beating USC on Thursday. Wisconsin, meanwhile, is on an 11 game win streak and has covered in 9 of their last 10 games. The Badgers stingy defense may not be able to stop Michael Beasley but can certainly shut down the rest of the Wildcats. Kansas State applies to a 0-12 ATS round 2 situation while Wisconsin applies to an 18-1 ATS NCAA tournament situation, so the technical analysis clearly favors the Badgers. My ratings favor Wisconsin by 4.2 points in this game but I’m willing to give up some line value given the strong situation favoring the Badgers. I’ll consider Wisconsin a Strong Opinion at -5 points and I’d take Wisconsin in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 ½ points and for 3-Stars at -4 or less.OPINION - 2-Stars at -4 1/2, 3-Stars at -4 or less.
2 Star Selection
Purdue (+3) over Xavier
22-Mar-08 01:40 PM Pacific Time
Xavier was a better team overall this season than Purdue, as I also favor the Musketeers by 3 points using all games at equal weighting. However, Xavier’s rating was built up by beating up on bad teams and by winning by big margins at home. The Musketeers weren’t nearly as good against good teams or when playing away from home. Xavier did beat Indiana on a neutral floor in November, but they also lost at Arizona State by 22 points, lost at Temple by 19 points and lost to St. Joe’s twice away from home. Overall, the Musketeers were 4 points worse than their overall rating when facing teams of NIT quality or better away from home. Purdue is just the opposite, as the young Boilermakers played their best against other good teams and away from home, winning games against Louisville (neutral floor), sweeping Wisconsin, beating Michigan State by 6 points at home and losing to the Spartans by only 3 points in East Lansing. Xavier’s only bad outings against good teams were a 10 point early season loss at Missouri (when Missouri was at full strength and good) and a 9 point loss at Indiana when the Hoosiers were playing great (before head coach Sampson resigned). Purdue also has been much better from January on after their inexperienced team had adjusted to playing against Division 1 competition. Another indication that Purdue plays better against good competition is their 11-3 ATS mark in games when favored by 3 or less or getting points. Xavier, meanwhile, is only 3-5 straight up (2-6 ATS) as a favorite of 6 points or less this season. My ratings favor Purdue by 1 point and using only games against good competition yields a fair line of Boilermakers by 2 points. I’ll take Purdue in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and consider the Boilermakers a Strong Opinion at +2 ½ or +2.2-Stars at +3 or more.
2 Star Selection
Washington State (-2 ½) over Notre Dame
22-Mar-08 03:40 PM Pacific Time
Washington State upped their level of play to destroy Winthrop with a 42-11 second half tally and their easy 71-40 win sets up the Cougars in a 21-0 ATS second round situation. My ratings favor Washington State by 2 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Washington State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 3-Stars at -2 or less.2-Stars at -3 or less, 3-Stars at -2 or less.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
fat man play.............west virg
total................xav over 31
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