Friday Service Plays

Friday Service Plays

Tom Scott

South Alabama vs Butler
Play ON: BUTLER minus the points

I made this point in another publication for which I write after speaking with friends close to the Butler program: "Butler's players are insulted. They have 29 wins (only four other teams in this tourney have more and those are the four number one seeds!), went 12-2 against a decent non-conference schedule, won both their conference regular season and tournament, and own an RPI of 14. Yet they are seeded SEVENTH, meaning that 20 teams with worse records and at least TEN with worst RPI ratings are ahead of them. Not only that, they got sent to a site that definitely favors their opponent." South Alabama has nice numbers too but all of them fall short of Butler's figures. With the Bulldogs at 7-2 ATS in their last nine NCAA tourney games and South Alabama playing here for only their third game since 1990 (lost and failed to cover both), We'll take the team on a mission.

PREDICTION: BUTLER 76 - South Alabama 62

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James Patrick Sports

St. Joseph’s vs. Oklahoma
The Sooners are a low scoring team that counts on their defense to keep them in games. With only (1) ATS win in their previous (11) tournament appearances we are not going to lay any points with a team that scores (60) ppg. Phil Martelli’s Hawks have enough offensive versatility to win a close game round one. Our Friday NCAA Tournament selection is St. Joseph’s Hawks.

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Great Lakes

Austin Peay vs Texas
Play on: Texas Longhornes

The Longhornes are 16-12 ATS this year, and are 8-4 ATS when the total is between 140 to 149.5 this year. The Longhornes are also 3-1 |ATS in all tournament games this year while Austin Peay is a terrible 1-6 ATS as an underdog this year. We look for the Texas Longhornes to destroy Austin Peay for the ATS Win & cover today.

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Vegas Sports Pics

Arkansas Razorbacks + 2 over Indiana Hoosiers    

No.22 Indiana (25-7) is 1-3 last four games including a 68-64 loss at (15-16) Penn State. The Hoosiers are 2-5 ATS last seven games vs. the SEC.  Arkansas (22-11) is 3-1 last four games including a 92-91 win over No.4 Tennessee in the SEC tournament.     
   

Texas Longhorns - 16 over Austin Peay Governors    
   
Austin Peay (24-10) is in the NCAAs for the first time since a first round loss to then No.5 Louisville 86-64 in 2003. No.6 Texas (28-6) which beat two No.1 ranked teams this season is shooting 52.7 percent allowing 40.9 percent shooting over its last five games.    
   
   
St. Joseph's Hawks + 2 over Oklahoma Sooners    
   
Oklahoma (22-11) is 1-4 ATS last five NCAA games off losing to Wisc-Milw 82-74 in the 2006 first round. Saint Joseph's (21-12) is 3-1 last four games including a 61-53 A-10 tourney win over No.10 Xavier. Hawks are in the NCAAs for the first time since making the Elite Eight in 2004

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The Prez

Texas -15.5

Texas vs. Austin Peay: There is a reason that the Longhorns are the sexy pick to reach the Final Four this April… They play in the strongest conference, the Big 12, and with two terrific early tournament matchups, figure to play the second weekend of games in Houston (home away from home, per se). After destroying Austin Peay on Friday, the talented squad will get the winner of the Miami-St. Mary’s game, after beating either, or both squads combined for that matter, they head to Houston for the regionals.

Texas is the strongest No. 2 seed without question, have the best balance from their backcourt to the paint, and once they reach the Sweet Sixteen and then the Elite Eight, they have a possible two games at the Alamodome in San Antonio.

First and foremost the team must get over their hard fought and physical defeat to Kansas in the Big 12 Championship game. Peay, who is balanced and offensive minded, can’t matchup with the quicker and bigger Longhorns. Peay has as much chance of winning on Friday as you do of hitting the lottery.

The Govs are seriously undersized in the post and must stay out of half court sets on the offensive end of the court; and the strength of their team, their guard play by Derek Wright (11.7 ppg) and Todd Babington (11.6 ppg), is neutralized by D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams.

The Longhorns are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite.

The Friday action play is on Texas minus the points over Peay.

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Marc Lawrence

Play On: Houston Rockets

Note: Rockets look to regain their winning ways off a pair of 20-point losses when they invade Golden State here tonight. According to our database, Houston responds well in this role as they are 4-0 ATS in games off back-to-back defeats of 20 or more points. They are also 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS in this series as a dog or favorite of less than two points. Look for the Rockets to fire up tonight.

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MATTY O'SHEA

Matty O'Shea
Clemson / Villanova Over 142
Analysis: Both of these teams have played very well offensively on neutral courts this season, with Clemson averaging 82.6 points per game and Villanova averaging nearly 75. The Wildcats have also averaged 72.5 points in their last four games compared to almost 78 for the Tigers. In addition, the OVER is 11-3 in Clemson's last 14 non-conference games. Both teams feature strong guard play and should be rested enough to turn this game into a shootout. That's why I'm betting the OVER as my Single Dime NCAA Tournament Total Play O' the Day for Friday

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RIGHT ANGLE SPORTS ( RAS)

FRIDAY

St. Mary's (+1) vs Miami Fla - 9:30am Pacific - Game #843-844
Everything fell together perfectly for the Gaels this season. With six key returners it was known they would be a good team, but no one had any idea how big of an impact late blooming Australian recruit Patrick Mills would make. Mills not only emerged as a consistent double digit scorer but led the team in assists and steals. Most importantly he made everyone on the team better. SMC has good size for a mid major, F Simpson and C Samhan are capable of playing with the big boys, and depth is solid with little dropoff in talent from 1 through 8. The Gaels are well coached, fundamentally sound, and can be successful playing different styles of basketball. SMC has beaten five different teams in the NCAA tournament field, are 11-5 in games away from home, and even played respectably at Texas. Miami has only beaten three NCAA tournament teams and are 8-8 in games away from home. The Hurricanes finished just .500 in a mediocre ACC and their two biggest wins came by just 1 and 3 points, both on their home court. After a 14-1 start, they are just 8-9 in last 17 games. Canes star guard McClinton went just 6-for-23 in two ACC tournament games. After shooting over 50% in November & December he is only .386 since. Expect the Gaels to get their first tournament win since 1959.

Play: St. Mary's +1 1 UNIT

Connecticut (-11) vs San Diego - 12:00pm Pacific - Game #827-828
Few teams enter the tournament as hot as the Huskies. UConn won 13 of their final 15 regular season games and if the Big East was not competitive enough, they added in a quality road win at Indiana in late January and a 12 point win over Georgia Tech in early February. All of this with third leading scorer Dyson (returned for last five games) missing nine games due to suspension. The Huskies lead the nation in blocked shots per game. Their superior size, strength, and athleticism figure to give San Diego fits. The Toreros have no business being in the dance, but parlayed home court advantage and a miracle comeback win in 2OT over St Mary's to upset Gonzaga in the WCC final. Before the WCC tournament USD went 2-8 (avg loss by 11.25 points) vs teams playing in the postseason, with one of those wins coming at Kentucky when the Wildcats were struggling and San Diego got four 3's from a walk-on freshman. San Diego lost starting guard Murdock (left team) midseason and returning rotation forward Fleming (injury redshirt) before the season. They have no seniors playing and only have 3 upperclassmen in the rotation. UConn will be the best team they have played all season and I do not expect a competitive game. The Huskies are still hungry from missing the tournament last year and will be focused. Give the points.

Play: Connecticut -11 1 UNIT

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Fairway Jay

20* Underdog 1st Rd GOY: Saint Joes

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Jimmy The Moose

Game: Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres
Prediction: over

Reason: The Maple Leafs are a beat up bunch that is having trouble scoring goals but tonight expect them to surrender a few. The Sabres have scored 20 goals in their last 3 games and that includes a 6-2 win vs. Toronto on March 15. The over is 13-3-1 in Buffalo's last 17 games overall. Buffalo has played over the total in 8 of their last 10 home games. The over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing record. Play the over.

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EZ WINNERS

NBA

5 STAR: (820) GOLDEN STATE (-2) over Houston
(Risking $550 to win $500)

NCAA

2 STAR: (836) GONZAGA (+2) over Davidson
(Risking $220 to win $100)

2 STAR: (825) WESTERN KENTUCKY (+4) over Drake
(Risking $220 to win $200)

2 STAR: (843) ST. MARYS (+1) over Miami-Florida
(Risking $220 to win $200)

1 STAR: (847) SOUTH ALABAMA (+5) over Butler
(Risking $110 to win $100)

1 STAR: (851) OKLAHOMA (-1) over St. Josephs
(Risking $110 to win $100)

1 STAR: (823) SIENA (+6.5) over Vanderbilt
(Risking $110 to win $100)

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Drew Gordon

1. 300,000* Mississippi State

2. 50,000* Arkansas

3. 50,000* Boise State

4. 50,000* Magic

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Matt Fargo

St Joseph's vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma   

St. Joseph’s is a very sexy pick right now to not only win this game but make a possible run in the tournament. After all, the Hawks beat Xavier twice over the last two weeks and almost won the Atlantic Ten Tournament. This is a solid team with a lot of veteran players that shoot good and do not turn the ball over but St. Joseph’s got a very tough draw in the first game. The majority of the public are eyeing a Hawks advancement but this matchup is not in their favor one bit.

Oklahoma is a team that is under the radar right now. The Sooners went 22-11 with a 10-8 mark in the Big XII yet no one seems to be talking about them. Maybe part of the reason is the fact that they were blown out against Texas in the Big XII Tournament, the third loss to the Longhorns this season. Prior to the last loss, Oklahoma had won four straight games and the makeup of this team is perfect for this first round game against an opponent that is at a disadvantage from the start.

This is the year of the freshman as talk about Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo and Derrick Rose are in all the headlines but one freshman is not getting the same press and that is Blake Griffin from Oklahoma. Listed at 6’10” and 245, Griffin is averaging 14.8 ppg and 9.2 rpg and is shooting 56.1 percent. He is third in the Big Twelve in shooting and fourth in rebounds. Joining him is 6’11” Longar Longar, making an Oklahoma frontcourt that the Hawks simply cannot matchup against.

Griffin may be a freshman but he picks it up in these types of games. He has 10 double/doubles and his last seven have come against NCAA Tournament teams, averaging 20.3 ppg and 14.7 rpg. The Sooners will have a big edge on the glass and winning that battle usually equates to a victory as Oklahoma is 16-4 when outrebounding their opponent. Defense has been strong of late as the Sooners have allowed 57 ppg on 38.6 percent shooting including 27.3 percent from long range over their last five games.

St. Joseph’s shoots well as mentioned and including long-range shooting. The Hawks rely heavily on their three-point shooting, with Pat Calathes hitting 40.3 percent and Rob Ferguson hitting 43.8 percent. Oklahoma has very quick defenders and it is allowing just 31.9 percent shooting from beyond the arc which is 29th in the country. St. Joseph’s allows 37 percent from long range which is not good as in its 22 wins, Oklahoma is shooting 39.8 percent from three-point range but just 25.9 percent in its 11 losses. Play Oklahoma Sooners 1 Unit

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Greg Daraban

Creighton at Florida

Creighton beat Rhode Island 74-73 Tuesday.Florida crushed San Diego St 73-49.

Creighton very capable of staying close to Florida.The Blue Jays pull the upset.

Take Creighton

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Ross Benjamin

Austin Peay vs. Texas
Pick: Texas -15.5
   
Any NCAA Tournament 1st round favorite that is off a neutral site underdog ATS loss, and has a win percentage of .794 or better is 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS since 1990. The favorite has won these 6 games by an average of 21.0 points per game. If they are a favorite of 15.0 or more then the system improves to 3-0 SU and ATS. The favorite wins those 3 games by an average of 26.7 points per game. Play on Texas minus the big number.

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Sportsbettingstats

Arkansas Razorbacks (22-11) vs. #24 Indiana Hoosiers (25-7)

Arkansas comes into the Big Dance after losing their last game of the season in the finals of the SEC Tournament to the how Georgia Bulldogs 66-57, while Indiana lost to Minnesota 59-58 in the Big 10 Tournament. The Razorbacks had a good end to their season, as they reached the SEC Conference Tournament final beating 2 top 20 teams in the process. Indiana has not played well since their head coach resigned in a scandal. The Hoosiers lost 3 of their last 4 games. Arkansas is a well-balanced team having all three position players average over 11 ppg. In their loss against Georgia in the finals of the SEC Tournament Forward Sonny Weems and Darian Townes were the high scorers with 17 points each. In that game the Razorbacks shot 23/52 for a field goal percentage of 44.2%. Arkansas was out rebounded in that game 37-31. On defense the Razorbacks played well in the loss only allowing Georgia to shoot only 23/59 for a field goal percentage of 39%. Guard Eric Gordon, who against Minnesota scored 16 points but only shot 4/13 from the field, leads Indiana. In that game the Hoosiers did not shoot well shooting 16/50 for a dismal field goal percentage of 32%. In the game Indiana out rebounded Minnesota 35-30. On defense Indiana played well holding Minnesota to 19/56 shooting for a field goal percentage of 33.9%.

Staff Pick: The winner of this game gets the unenviable task of playing #1 North Carolina in the second round. Both these teams have won National Championships, but in the last couple of years neither team has been a title contender. It is interesting how the Hoosiers are the better offensive team, while the Razorbacks are the better defensive team, which is switch from past years. Even though this is the case the Razorbacks are playing like they did when they shot to national prominence in the early 90's, as they play in a fast paced style. The Razorbacks need to keep their momentum alive and keep the scorers from Indiana in check. The Razorbacks can score from anywhere, being a very well balanced team. Look for a close game but for the Razorbacks win, as they are playing better at the moment and defense wins in the NCAA Tournament.

Razorbacks 59 Hoosiers 56

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Lee Kostroski top rated 6 unit play Arkansas

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Dr Bob

I don't have any Best Bets on Friday, as you'll find out below that the teams in favorable situations also had negative line value. I do have some strong opinions and other leans though. I'll release Saturday's Round 2 games on Saturday morning at 8:15 am Pacific on my Best Bets Release page.


Villanova (+6) over Clemson
My ratings favor Clemson by 6 ½ points but Villanova is at their best under coach Jay Wright as an underdog or pick (50-30-2 ATS), in non-conference games (44-30-2 ATS) and when Wright has had 3 or more days off to prepare for a game (58-38-1 ATS). All 3 of those positives apply to this game and the Wildcats are 22-10-1 ATS as a dog or pick with 3 or more days off and 16-6-1 ATS as a dog or pick against non-conference opponents (6-1 ATS with 3 or more days off). Wright’s team is 2-0 ATS as a dog in NCAA tournament play and I’ll lean slightly with Villanova at +6 points or more.

Vanderbilt (-6 ½) versus Siena
Vanderbilt is the worst #4 seed I can ever remember and my ratings favor the Commodores by only 4 ½ points against a solid Siena team that was good enough to beat Stanford earlier in the season (although Stanford was without star Brook Lopez for that game). While the line value favors the Saints, but situation favors Vandy, who applies to a 76- 27-3 ATS first round situation. I’ll pass this one.

Drake (-4) versus Western Kentucky
Drake is 28-4 straight up and 21-7 ATS and the Bulldogs are still underrated. My ratings favor Drake by 6 points in this game and the Bulldogs play their best when they need to play well to win. That characteristic is the reason that Drake is just 4-5 ATS when favored by 7 points or more and an incredible 17-2 ATS when not favored by more than 6 points (i.e. games in which they need to play well to win). Unfortunately Drake applies to a negative 5-28 ATS first round situation that will keep me from playing the Bulldogs in this game. I’ll pass.

Connecticut (-10 ½) versus San Diego
San Diego started the season with a 6-8 record, but the Toreros improved greatly when poor shooting guard Ray Murdock (33% shooting) was injured just before Christmas. In their first game without Murdock bringing their offense down the Toreros won by 9 points at Kentucky as a 13 point dog, which was the start of a 15-5 finish in which they were 14-5 ATS (8-1 ATS as an underdog) and included wins over Gonzaga and two wins against St. Mary’s. The oddsmakers are pricing San Diego based on their entire season instead of just in the games without Murdock and the Toreros are 3 points better in their final 20 games than they are for the entire season. My ratings favor U Conn by only 8 points in this game, so the line value continues to favor San Diego. Unfortunately, the Toreros apply to a negative 3-20-1 ATS subset of a 28-73-2 ATS situation while the Huskies apply to a 23-3 ATS first round angle. I will be forced to pass on this game with the situations going one way and the line value significantly favoring the other side.

North Carolina (-25) versus Mount St. Mary’s
My ratings favor North Carolina by 25 points playing here in Raleigh, which is an advantage, and the line is 25 points. There are no situations favoring either side, but #1 seeds coming off a win are 11-1 ATS in first round games when favored by 24 points or less (including Kansas on Thursday), so I’d lean with North Carolina at -24 points or less.

Indiana (-2) over Arkansas
This game would have been a Best Bet if Indiana hadn’t played so much worse under interim coach Dan Dakich down the stretch after Kelvin Sampson resigned. After all my ratings favor the Hoosiers by 3 points using all games this season and IU applies to a decent 29-6 ATS first round situation while Arkansas applies to a negative 6-30-1 ATS situation. I decided to pass on Indiana because they are just 1-5 ATS since Sampson resigned and the players haven’t played with as much intensity. That should change with this being the NCAA Tournament, but I decided not to take that chance. I’ll consider Indiana a Strong Opinion at -2 or less and I’ll lean with the Hoosiers at -2 ½ or -3 points.

Maryland Baltimore County (+17) over Georgetown
My ratings favor Georgetown by 16 points in this game, so there was certainly a good reason for the line on this game to plummet from the opening number of 19 points down to 17 points. I’ll lean slightly with UMBC at +17 points or more.

Davidson (-2) versus Gonzaga
Davidson is a very good team that played competitively with North Carolina, Duke and UCLA this season, so facing the Zags will certainly not be intimidating for them – especially with the advantage of playing this game in nearby Raleigh. My ratings favor Davidson by 3 ½ points but Gonzaga applies to a solid 57-17-1 ATS first round situation so I will be forced to pass on this game.

Memphis (-24 ½) over Texas Arlington
Texas Arlington was good enough to win the lowly Southland Conference, but the Mavericks are likely to get blown out by a Memphis squad that destroyed bad teams this season. Arlington isn’t as good now as they were early in the season, as the loss of starting guard Brandon Long (12.3 ppg, 36.4% 3-pointers) after 9 games dropped their level of play for the rest of the season. Texas Arlington is also at a disadvantage as a big underdog as a team that likes to play at a faster than normal pace, as the more possessions per game the more opportunities the much better team has of extending the margin of victory. Using only Arlington’s games without Long and adjusting for the fast pace of this game results in a fair line of Memphis by 27 points and I’ll lean with Memphis at -25 points or less.

Oregon (+2 ½) over Mississippi State
Miss State and Oregon State are about the same in level of play for the season and the only reason the Bulldogs have a better record than the Ducks is because they played the 78th toughest schedule in the nation while Oregon played the nation’s 4th toughest schedule. Miss State didn’t play quite as well against better competition and my ratings favor Oregon by ½ a point in this game. I’ll lean with Oregon plus the points.

Texas (-15 ½) versus Austin Peay
Texas applies to a decent 65-35-2 ATS situation, but the Longhorns don’t play as well against lesser teams and they’re just 13-27-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 13 points against teams with a win percentage of greater than .334 under coach Rick Barnes. My ratings favor Texas by 16 points, so the line is about right. I’ll pass this game.

St. Mary’s Cal (+1) over Miami-Florida
St. Mary’s applies to a 22-2-1 ATS situation while Miami applies to a negative 0-14-1 ATS subset of a 6-30-1 ATS first round situation. While the technical analysis clearly favors the Gaels, I decided to pass on making this game a Best Bet. St. Mary’s doesn’t play as well away from home against other good teams and my NCAA tournament ratings, which take that into account, favor Miami by 2.3 points. The situation is more significant than the line value going against the Gaels, so I’ll still lean with St. Mary’s at +1 or more.

American (+19 ½) over Tennessee
One ingredient that is advantageous in a big underdog is playing at a slow pace, which is something that American University certainly does. The Eagles averaged only 61 possessions per game this season, which is much lower than the national average of 67 possessions and those 6 possessions per game result in about 1 ½ points when the difference between the two teams is as much as it is in this game. Tennessee plays at a fast pace (73 possessions per game) and this game should be played right around the national average of 67 possessions, but that’s 6 possessions fewer than the Vols normally have. Tennessee won their games by an average of 11.5 points this season and they would have won by an average of 10.6 points had they played at a pace of 67 possessions per game. Every point in college basketball is worth nearly 4% in your chance of covering the spread, so paying attention to pace in games involving big spreads is worthwhile. My ratings favor Tennessee by only 17 points after adjusting for pace and I’ll lean with American at +18 points or more.

South Alabama (+5) over Butler
South Alabama applies to a 34-5 ATS subset of a 92-33-3 ATS first round situation, but Butler is a much better team when they are motivated by good competition and the Bulldogs have a history of playing much better against non-conference opponents (51-27-1 ATS) than they do against Horizon League foes that are accustomed to their style of play (54-67-6 ATS in conference games). Butler is 5-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament in recent years and my ratings favor the Bulldogs by 5 ½ points. South Alabama is still the side to be on here given the strong general situation but I’ll resist making the Jaguars a Best Bet given Butler’s ability to turn up their level of play when they need to (they dominated the Horizon Conference Tournament after sleep walking through the regular season conference schedule). I’ll consider South Alabama a Strong Opinion at +5 or more and I’ll lean with the Jags at +4 ½ or +4.

Louisville (-13) over Boise State
Louisville applies to a solid 45-14 ATS first round situation and my ratings favor the Cardinals by 14 ½ points in this game. Boise State, however, is a good shooting team (51% FG, 42% 3-pointers) and teams that shoot that well are usually better as underdogs since good outside shooting isn’t affected as much by the talent level of the opponents. It’s no surprise that Boise is 7-2 ATS as an underdog or pick this season and the Broncos are also 50-28 ATS under their current coach when facing a team coming off a straight up loss. I’m not going to put too much stock in that trend, but it one more thing that kept me from playing Louisville as a Best Bet in this game. The Cardinals are still the side to play and I’ll consider Louisville a Strong Opinion at -13 or less and I’ll lean with the Cardinals are -13 ½ or -14 points.

Oklahoma (-1) versus St. Joseph’s
St. Joseph’s played their best this season against better teams and they were certainly underrated heading into the Atlantic 10 Tournament, which they won by beating Xavier and Temple. Oklahoma has been pretty inconsistent this season but the Sooners are a solid team when healthy, as they are now. My ratings favor Oklahoma by 1 point in this game and the line has already come down from 2 ½ to 1, so there is no line value favoring either side now. I have no opinion on this game, although I did take St. Joe’s in my pool.

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Josh Dean

300* S. Alabama

100* Miss. St.

100* Nets

Free Pick: Hou/GS UNDER

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