Wednesday Service Plays

Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Bob Balfe

NBA Basketball
Sonics +12.5 over Suns

College Basketball
Cincinnati +6 over Bradley
Valparaiso +10 over Washington


Savannah Sports

4 Units on VA Commonwealth Over 129.5


Maddux Sports

3 units on Philadelphia -3
3 units on Atlanta +2
3 units on Cal Santa Barbara +13
5 units on Bradley -6 (CBI Tournament Game of the Year)
3 units on UTEP -1

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MONEYLOCKOFTHEDAY

DIGGER - ATLANTA HAWKS

Junior - Florida

Hawker - Tulsa

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Sports Profit Systems

GAME: New Mexico @ California
PICK: New Mexico

REASON FOR PICK: This line has PAC-10 conference written all over it. Because the Lobos are in the Mountain West, they’re not getting enough credit for a team that went 24-7, including 8-5 on the road. And tonight they’re facing a dejected Cal team that comes limping in after getting routed by 22 against UCLA in the PAC-10 tourney. Overall the Bears have been dreadful since the calendar turned 2008, and their non-conference slate doesn’t feature anyone noteworthy. The Bears are just 6-13 SU (8-11 ATS) since January 5th and they have absolutely ZERO home court advantage this season. Over that span they went just 1-8 SU (0-9 ATS) at home. Yes, you are reading that correctly, Cal has failed to cover in their last NINE home games. The lone win came against Oregon State, a team that would get crushed by a lot of high school programs. They won that one by 5 as -15 ½-point favorites. So now all of a sudden they're supposed to get well at home when they’d just as soon pack it in and forget this season? We’re not sold. New Mexico meanwhile is the polar opposite. They come into this game on FIRE, on an 8-2 run (SU & ATS) and the two losses were in overtime to BYU at home and Utah in the conference tourney. Not only have the Lobos been winning and covering but they’ve been doing in on the road in tough environments. They’ve won their last four road games, including wins at Air Force and Utah, which are not easy places to emerge with a W. Their non-conference slate is nothing spectacular either, but it’s better than Cal’s. The Lobos have two wins against Big 12 schools (albeit at Colorado and at home against Texas Tech), a 10-point win against Tourney-bound San Diego, and a narrow 8-point loss at Ole Miss. Cal has a home win against Missouri and a 2-point LOSS at home to Utah, a team New Mexico beat at home by 10 (although it went to OT). The New Mexico program is not the type to frown on an NIT appearance, especially since they’re used to it (they’ve been in 7 years in a row). They should be thrilled at the chance to upset a PAC-10 team on the road on national TV and move on in this tournament. Cal on the other hand will hardly be fired up about it. So what we’ve got here is an undervalued, highly motivated team that does well on the road against an overvalued, much less motivated team that struggles at home. The stars are aligned for the outright upset folks. We wouldn’t recommend against a money line play, but in this case we’ll just grab the 4 points (as we write this), in case Cal finds a mysterious gear they haven’t found yet at Haas Pavilion. In any case, enjoy the game and best of luck with all of your wagers tonight!

Note: This play is 300 units. For our scale, this is your standard wager amount.

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GOLD SHEET LATE TELEPHONE SERVICE

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS –3 –Home over Denver

DETROIT PISTONS +1½ over Cleveland

CLEVELAND STATE +7½ over Dayton

UTAH STATE +8 over Illinois State

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WUNDERDOG

Morgan State at Virginia Tech
Pick: 4 units on Morgan State +17

The Hokies may be feeling snubbed by NCAA committee and find themselves in the NIT (Not In Tournament). Morgan State had a 15-1 run stopped in their conference final, as an even hotter Coppin State team spoiled their dreams. The Bears may be unknown by most, but they can play! Look no further than their 15-2 finish and early season road games where they lost by just 4 at Miami Fla, and 4 on the road at UConn. They beat American U and LaSalle, and dropped a game at Seton Hall by just 8. Connecticut and Miami scored 69 and 55, respectively, against them and it's going to be difficult for Tech to pull away and cover this exceedlingly large number. The Bears are better than they appear, and we will ride them here.


Game: New Mexico at California
Pick: 3 units on New Mexico +160

Does momentum matter? Cal has lost eight of their last ten while New Mexico in contrast has won eight of their last ten! The Lobos missed out on the MWC Title by just one bucket, losing to Utah 82-80. This team can play. They won on average this season by 12 ppg. They feature the MWC co-Player of the Year in J.R. Giddens who led the league in scoring and rebounding. He's the second player (and first guard) to accomplish that (first was Andrew Bogut). Over their last five games, the Lobos are giving up 64 ppg while Cal is allowing 86 per game. This season the Bears were 7-14 vs. winning teams including 0-6 in the last six. Teams like New Mexico that move the ball well (16+ assists per game) gave Cal fits as the Bears went 1-6 against such teams. Cal lost by 22 points last game and they are just 4-12 the past three seasons off a double-digit loss (1-7 if the loss was by 15+). Sure, the level of competition is different, but we are going to back the hot teams vs. the cold one here.

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Frank Rosenthal

NBA Hoops
624 76ers-2.5 Sb
627 Heat+16.5 Sb
Over 200.5 Sb
634 Wolves-7 Sb
636 Hornets-4 Sb
639 Suns-10 Sb
642 Clippers+9.5 Sb

College Hoops
651 Sd St+10.5 Sb
654 Nebraska-8.5 Sb
657 Nex Mex+4.5 Sb
Cbi Tournament
668 Bradley-6 Sb
674 Washington-9.5 Sb

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JOHNNY GULID

Miami Heat (12-54) at Toronto Raptors (34-33)
The Raptors are 2-0 against the Heat this season and have won two of its last three clashes versus Miami at home. But, the Raptors are struggling. Toronto has dropped five in a row and nine of their last 11 games. Look for the Heat to cover the huge spread, just like last night?s battle in Milwaukee. Take the sorry Heat for a back-to-back win against the spread. Toronto is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games and has lost six of its last eight versus Miami at Air Canada Centre.

Miami Heat +18.5



NCAA
Virginia Tech Hokies - 17
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 9

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

The Fat Jack

MISSISSIPPI -13

NEBRASKA -10

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Gator's NBA/CBB 70% Report

NBA

Wednesday: Play Against NBA road underdogs in a game involving two teams with a winning percentage of 60% to 75% on the season during games played in the month of March.34-8 ATS last 5 seasons (81.0%) PLAY: New Orleans -5

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Drew Gordon


1. 200,000* Cincinnati
2. 50,000* Florida
3. 50,000* Pacers

1. Cincinnati- Come NIT or CBI tourney time, one of the most important aspects in handicapping these games is a team's psyche. In other words, is a team excited or disappointed to be here? Do they consider it the "loser's tourney" or a chance at redemption? Cincinnati, sitting at 13-18, having lost 6 in a row and with no one believing in them, fits this bill perfectly tonight.

First of all, the Bearcats want nothing more than a chance to redeem themselves after losing 6 straight games down the stretch. While they did get crushed by Connecticut, you have to like the way they responded to that loss... By giving Pitt almost more than they could handle, losing 70-64 but covering as 8-point pups.

Bradley also didn't play well down the stretch, but they didn't have the same kind of confidence-boosting effort that Cincy had against Pitt. Instead they crushed by the Salukis in their own house, and then lost to Creighton twice.

The Bearcats frontcourt was key to their cover against Pitt, and it'll be even more important against a guard-heavy Braves squad in this one. F Matt Salley is the only true frontline contributor the Braves have, and he'll have his hands full tonight against the likes of Cincy's Williamson, Hrycaniuk, and Bishop.

While the Bearcats clearly have the edge in the frontcourt, that still doesn't even include their best player - G Deonta Vaughn, who's 17 ppg paces Cincinnati. He's coming off a 30-point 6 assist effort against a rock-solid Pitt defense, and should be able to get it done against a Bradley defense allowing 79 ppg on 44% shooting over their last 5 games.

Bottom line, Cincy has most of the necessary deciding factors in their favor - a positive team psyche, a strong edge in the frontcourt, and the best overall player in the game tonight in Vaughn. While Bradley is no slouch at home, I still expect this to be an extremely competitive contest. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Bearcats won outright in this spot, but let's not get greedy... Take the points and grab the cash with Cincy.

Take Cincinnati plus the points over Bradley as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Florida- I know what you're saying: "Drew, you just got finished telling us that team psyche is critical in handicapping NIT/CBI games, so how can you pick Florida in this spot, when they were clearly disappointed to be going to the NIT?"

Well, if you read above, I said team psyche is one of the most important aspects, but not the only one. Truth be told, coach Donovan is in a tricky situation with such a young team following a two-time National Championship team. So what did he do? He let them have it... Taking away their practice facility and publicly saying he wasn't "excited" about the returning team chances next year. If ever there was a game this Gators team was going to give a "max-effort" it'll be tonight.

Also consider, while the Aztecs did win 20 games, they didn't fare well against solid competition, especially on the road. Losses at Utah, at UNLV, and against BYU in the MWC tourney, immediately come to mind, as the Aztecs had their chances, but continually came up short on the highway. Now you want them to get it done in Gainesville, where the Gators are at their most dangerous on the friendly rims, averaging 82 ppg on a blazing 52% shooting this season.

Finally, let's look over the match ups, and it becomes clear the Aztecs fall short, especailly in the backcourt. F Lorenzo Wade is great, but after that, forwards Amoroso and freshman Billy White won't find it nearly as easy against solid SEC competition. Speights and Werner got dominated by the Crimson Tide's frontline, and will be looking to make a point tonight against the Aztecs. And we haven't even mentioned guards Calathes, Hodge, and Lucas, all of which are leaps and bounds better than anything San Diego State has in their backcourt.

Bottom line, few times can you count on a "disapppointed" team to come through in a "lesser" tournament, but Florida got embarassed, and Billy Donovan won't let his Gators go out like that. They're a solid SEC team, and the talent difference becomes more apparant, as the Aztecs struggle once again in hostile territory.

Take Florida over San Diego State in this NIT match up.


3. Pacers- Got to like the Pacers in this spot, as they have a multitude of factors in their favor against the Bobcats tonight:

First, they're playing at home, where their offensive firepower isn't completely outdone by their deficiencies on defense. In other words, they actually play D at Conseco Fieldhouse, and when you couple that with their high-powered attack, they're a much better team. Charlotte's inability to score the basetball when they travel cannot be ignored, averaging just 91 ppg on 43% shooting away!

Second, although not as strong a factor in the NBA, the Pacers are playing some payback in mind tonight. Bobcats have beaten them in consecutive meetings in Charlotte, and the Pacers will be looking for some redemption tonight. The fact Indiana leads the Bobcats in their race to catch the Hawks and Nets for the 8th and final playoff spot, also gives added importance to the revenge factor here.

Finally, Charlotte has done nothing but lose on the road, going 6-26 SU & 11-20-1 ATS this season, so why would you trust them in this spot? Not only that, but they're at the end of another losing road trip, when loss of focus and fatigue become real problems. Bobcats already have issues on defense, allowing 103 ppg on 48% shooting away this season, but if they play tired, Indiana will blow them right out of the Conseco Fieldhouse in this one. Pacers roll!

Take the Pacers comfortably over the Bobcats in this NBA match up.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Stan Sharp DOUBLE DIME

Washington +8

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Teddy June's College Basketball CBI Tournament Game of the Week

My 10* College Basketball CBI Game of the Week is the Bradley Braves minus the points over the Cincinnati Bearcats. Bradley enters this game at 17-15 SU and the Bearcats enter at 13-18 SU on the year. For the Braves they were expected to be in the NCAA Tournament at this time when experts predicted them to finish 2nd in the MVC. Injuries to very key players was the downfall for this squad and now with Warren expected to return for this game Bradley is once again fully healthy. Ruffin missed a great deal of time as well between injuries and a brief suspension but he is back to fill out in my opinion one of the best back courts in the country with Couch and Ruffin. Bearcats have had an up and down year with ending it on a real skid having lost 6 straight games down the stretch of the year. They also are 3-11 SU away from home this year and carry a target on their back being from the Big East entering this tournament. I love the guards for this Braves squad and with Warren expected to be back he adds a very solid 3rd scorer to give the Bearcats problems around the perimeter. Braves are 37-17-3 ATS their last 57 home games and 10-3 ATS their last 13 games overall. I currently have this line at -6 and have this rated at 10* up to -7. My 10* College Basketball CBI Game of the Week is the Bradley Braves minus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let's make some money.

Teddy June's Private Players Club

My 10* Private Players Club Selection is the VCU Rams minus the points over the UAB Blazers. I currently have this line at -5.5 and have this rated at 10* up to -6.5. As always, Good Luck, Let's make some money.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Kevin Francis

NBA EASTERN CONFERENCE TOTALS PLAY OF THE YEAR

Under Cavs opened at 183

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Purelock

NBA

Miami @ Toronto
Play On: Toronto

Charlotte @ Indiana
Play On: Charlotte

CBB

UAB @ VCU
Play On: VCU

San Diego State @ Florida
Play On: Florida

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Akmens

College Basketball

Morgan State/Virginia Tech UN 124.5 / 3 units

Cincinnati/Bradley OV 138.0 / 3 units

Utah/Texas El Paso OV 142.0 / 3 units

New Mexico/California OV 152.0 / 3 units


National Basketball Association

Charlotte Bobcats/Indiana Pacers OV 213.0 / 3 units

Detroit Pistons/Cleveland Cavaliers UN 184.5 / 3 units


National Hockey League

Anaheim Ducks/Dallas Stars UN 5.0 (-115) / 3 units

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Jeffersonsports

NCAA
Nebraska-9

NBA
Philadelphia-3
Cleveland-1.5
Miami over 199
Wash under 206.5

NHL
Dallas-125

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Nick Parsons NIT GOY

New Mexico

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Seabass

20 Miami Oh
20 Dayton
20 NC Char

10 Cal Santa Barbara
10 Hornets

10 San Jose

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