Tuesday Service Plays
Re: Tuesday Service Plays
Stephen Austin +9.5 (POD)
Magic POD winner yesterday.
Stephen Austin is the highest ranked team out of the 3 dogs that I have chosen today and they are getting a relatively nice cushion at +9.5 so that is why I have chosen them as my POD today as compared to the Siders of Richmond who I think hang tough at Virginia and Rider who might have a shot at winning that game outright and simply because I got the +6 line, I went ahead and rolled with them. As per this game, Stephen Austin is a tpo 80 school, they lost essentially 5 ballgames in total this year, and that was to Texas Arlington and Northwestern State - the 2 teams that made it to their conference championship. This team lost to Sam Houston by a bucket on the road who is a top 125 team, lost to Nichols State by a bucket as well and Texas Tech earlier in the year by 14. However, they did win over 20 games, ran through the conferece except for those 2 late losses and beat Oklahoma and San Diego on the road which says a lot. Umass is a good team, but I want to highlight 3 ballgames that they faced against 3 top 80 teams, Rhode Island, Charlotte and Houston where they won by 7, 2 and 6. If I am not mistaken all 3 of those games went over. Look for Stephen Austin to play inspired ball today and fall within inside the spread as this is a very good squad similar to those 3 teams that Umass barely beat under double-digits. No one is giving Stephen Austin a chance today but remember, Umass is 0-7 ATS against teams that have a winning % of greater than 60% or more similar to today.
My time is limited as I have to begin the research for tomorrow, such is the case during March Madness as I spend more time doing the research then doing the detailed write-ups for all the games, although I do it for most of the game. Long story short here, Richomnd is a sound team and they did lose 2 ballgames in the Atlantic 10 badly and that was to St. Josephs - a team they just do not matchup well. This team went on the road to beat the likes of Charlotte and other competent A-10 teams and they can be very competitive at home and although Virginia comes off a tough loss to Georgia Tech in neutral footing, Richmond does have some bite as they beat a top 40 Virginia Tech team at home in a defensive battle. Don't sell the Atlantic 10 short here as the Spiders are 7-1 ATS following a straight up loss and 8-2 ATS when facing a team with a winning % of greater than 60% meaning they show up to play the better teams in the nation.
I can give you a detailed write-up on this game, but long story short, I think RIder wins this game. possibly outright. I like the +6 here as anything below that I probably would not have taken this team, but this team does play an ODU team that is very fickle. You notice that the majority of the public is on ODU today - yet you see an odd line of +6? That is because, similar to the Hawks line yesterday which I believe was around 6, as most lines of +5.5 and +6 for road rodgs, signifies that the road dog has a chance to win outright or at least vegas expects them too - similar to this game. Rider is a top 120 team and they were drilled by Siena on the road, but don't forget, this team too won over 20 ballgames this year, they beat CS Northridge, Marist and Rutgers on the road. I know many people think ODU is wonderful, but I have them ranked in the top 140, about 30 spots lower than Rider from the Metro Atlantic league in my power rankings. ODU lost to William and Mary and NC Wilmington - 2 teams outside the top 150 power rankings. This team also beat top 240 Drexel at home by just 4 points and I think Rider gives them a headache throughout this game if not wins outright as this is a play based purely on the power rankings. ODU is 1-7 ATS in non-conference games.
Re: Tuesday Service Plays
Teddy June’s College Basketball NIT Game of the Day
My 10* College Basketball NIT Game of the Day is the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks plus the points over the UMASS Minutemen. Lumberjacks are 26-5 SU and the Minutemen are 21-10 SU on the season. Interesting opening round matchup we have two teams that bring completely contrasting styles of play with the Lumberjacks strong on the defensive side and the Minutemen strong on the offensive side. Lumberjacks are really going to frustrate UMASS here in my opinion by slowing the tempo down and playing lock down defense particularly around the perimeter. UMASS has not played a lick of defense all season long so I do like the value we are getting in this line. Lumberjacks come out of the Southland conference and rank 2nd in the nation in points allowed at 55.6ppg, 15th in FG% at 39.2 and 26th in 3PT% at 31.4. They also have the Southland Conference player of the year with Josh Alexander who is averaging 16.5ppg and 5.8rpg. After him they have a strong forward in Matt Kingsley who was simply on fire down the stretch of the year and finished the season scoring 15.3ppg and 5.6rpg. Lumberjacks have shown they can win on the road and certainly compete with big conference schools with wins over Oklahoma and San Diego. Meanwhile UMASS made a nice late season run only to lose a heartbreaker against Charlotte in the Conference Tournament and I expect this team to not be entirely motivated for this game. Minutemen have played in the offense happy A10 and I think this contrasting style gives them fits tonight. I currently have this line at +9.5 and have this rated at 10* down to +8. My 10* College Basketball NIT Game of the Day is the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks plus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.
Teddy June’s Private Players Club
My 10* Private Players Club Selection is the Akron Zips plus the points over the Florida State Seminoles. I currently have this line at +8 and have this rated at 10* down to +7. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.
Re: Tuesday Service Plays
Tuesday NBA Opinion
DALLAS (-5 ½) over L.A. Lakers
The Lakers clearly aren’t as good without injured Pao Gasol and they qualify in a 38-91-3 ATS negative momentum situation tonight. Dallas has been rolling lately, but their string of 5 consecutive blowout wins have all come against bad teams. The Mavericks are a better team with Jason Kidd, but that’s mostly because Jason Terry doesn’t have to play the point anymore (with Tyrone Lue having taken over backup duties). The Mavericks are much more effective with Terry playing the off-guard spot and that is why Dallas is a better team now than they before trading Devon Harris for Kidd – not because Kidd is better than Harris. My ratings, with Gasol out and with the Mavericks’ current rotation, favor Dallas by 5 points, which is where the line opened. The number has gone up and I’m not willing to give up line value to make this a Best Bet. I’ll lean with Dallas at -6 or less.
Tuesday NIT Opinion
SOUTHERN ILLINIOS (-5) over Oklahoma State
Southern Illinois lost their final 2 games to end any chances of making the NCAA Tournament, but they should embrace their chance to host an NIT game against an Oklahoma State team that doesn’t travel well. The Cowboys have covered their last 3 road games, but they’re still just 5-13 ATS on the road in 2 seasons under coach Sean Sutton and the opponents on a losing streak tend to get well when facing Oklahoma State (the Cowboys are 0-8-1 ATS the last two seasons when facing a team that has lost 2 or more consecutive games). Southern Illinois plays better at home (9-5-2 ATS at home this season) and the Salukis apply to a very good 44-12 ATS NIT first round situation. Unfortunately, my ratings favor Southern Illinois by just 4 points even with a higher than normal home court advantage. I’ll lean with SIU at -5 or -4 ½ and I’d take Southern Illinois in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.
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