Sunday Service Plays
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Columbus Blue Jackets
The Detroit Red Wings looked lethargic yesterday after clinching a playoff berth on Thursday, and they could be in trouble today as a big road favorite with no rest vs. the improved Columbus Blue Jackets.
Unlike the Wings, the Blue Jackets had the day off yesterday following their worst performance in a while, a 6-3 home loss to the Chicago Blackhawks on Friday. They can be expected to improve on that performance today in front of an excited home crowd, and remember that Columbus has actually won the last two meetings with Detroit to even up the season series at 2-2.
The Wings looked like a team with nothing to play for yesterday in a listless 3-1 loss to the Nashville Predators, snapping a five-game winning streak. We would not be surprised if that lethargy spills over here for one more game vs. a more motivated opponent, especially since Detroit is playing without rest.
All things considered, this looks like excellent value for the home underdog.
Pick: Blue Jackets
Toronto Raptors +4.0
Both the Toronto Raptors and the Sacramento Kings are coming off of blowout losses, but at least the Raptors had last night off while the Kings were getting pummeled in Phoenix, and Toronto probably needs this win to avoid a winless road trip.
This is the fourth game of a five-game Western trip for the Raptors, and it has been a horrible adventure so far as they have lost the first three games to the Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets, all by double-digits. Furthermore, they have a date with the Utah Jazz, the team with the biggest home court advantage in the NBA, up next. That means that this game vs. the Kings tonight is Toronto’s best chance to salvage a win on this trek.
The good news is that the Sacramento is the only team the Raps are facing on this trip that has a losing record, and they have had success vs. the Kings in the recent past, going 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings including a 116-91 blowout win in Toronto this year. Granted, the Raptors are still without Chris Bosh and they are 2-5 straight up without him, but interestingly, all five losses have come against teams that would be in the playoffs right now (the Orlando Magic and Washington Wizards besides the first three games of this trip) while both wins have come vs. teams with losing records. The Kings fall into the latter category.
Sacramento had been playing good ball for a while, but they have regressed lately going just 3-8 both SU and ATS in their last 11 games. The Kings were pasted by the Suns 127-99 last night, thanks to a miserable performance defensively as they allowed Phoenix to shoot a spectacular 60.8 percent (48 for 79) from the floor! Then again, defense was never a strong suit for a Kings team that is allowing 103.8 points per game for the season, and even with Bosh, the Raptors have enough weapons to take advantage of this porous defense, especially from the perimeter.
Finally, while the Kings are a decent 19-12 SU at home, they have not exactly been dominant like they have in the past here, only winning their home games by an average of +2.2 points per game. Meanwhile, the Raptors have been respectable on the road, that last three games notwithstanding, going 15-18 SU while getting outscored by just a scant -0.2 points per contest.
Pick: Raptors +4
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Take the points with Clemson this afternoon over North Carolina in the ACC Championship game.
Clemson has a tendency to play the big boys of the conference tough. They knocked off Duke yesterday and have played North Carolina tight in both previous meetings this season.
Both of those games went to overtime before Carolina prevailed each time, but Clemson knows they are that close to knocking off the No. 1-ranked team in the nation.
The Tarheels have won 10 straight, but they are only 4-6 ATS in that span, including just 1-4 ATS in their last five.
Clemson is 7-2 SU in its last nine games, going 6-3 ATS.
North Carolina has failed to cover in five of its last seven conference tournament games and is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 ACC tournament games.
Clemson is on a 5-1 ATS run in its last six tournament games.
The Tigers have serious revenge motive going for them today and I see them hanging with the Tarheels until the end.
Take the points with Clemson as they keep it within the number.
Take the points with Georgia this afternoon over Arkansas as they continue their improbable run to the SEC Championship game.
I know Georgia is going to be running on fumes, if they can even run, after the day-night doubleheader they were forced to play yesterday.
But that won’t matter because the adrenaline is going to keep them within the number.
You can talk about fatigue all you want, but sometimes heart trumps that and Georgia certainly qualifies today.
This is their only chance at getting into the NCAA tournament, so don’t think they’re going to lament their situation today.
Arkansas is coming off an upset win over top-seeded Tennessee, so forgive them if they think the SEC title is theirs because of who they are playing now. It’s only natural for a team like Arkansas to take Georgia a bit too light after knocking off a team that had a chance at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Georgia is 7-2 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog, and underdogs are 8-1 ATS in non-pick-em games in this year’s SEC tournament.
Arkansas is just 2-5 SUATS in its last seven games away from Fayetteville.
Take the points with Georgia as the Razorbacks win the SEC Championship, but the Bulldogs grab the cash.
Take the points with Illinois over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game.
This isn’t quite David vs. Goliath, but it’s pretty close.
Illinois comes into the championship game with a losing record and will have to knock off the 8th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers to grab the title.
Wisconsin pulled off a great comeback in yesterday’s win over Michigan State, but that may have taken a bit too much out of them for them to cover today’s game.
The Badgers set college basketball back about 50 years with the way they play, but you can’t argue their success.
It’s just that success hasn’t translated into cash for their backers.
Wisconsin is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last four postseason games, including last year’s 66-49 drubbing at the hands of Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game.
Illinois is 6-2 SU in neutral-site games this year, going 5-3 ATS.
The Illini has won four Big Ten games in a row after failing to win consecutive conference games all season. They are also 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
Take the points with Illinois as they scrap with Wisconsin and keep the game within the number.
Take the points with the Bobcats tonight when they battle the Cavaliers in Cleveland.
Charlotte has played Cleveland tough, winning 96-93 at home back in December, and losing 113-106 in overtime at Cleveland in January.
The Bobcats have Gerald Wallace back in the lineup and having their best player back will go a long way towards covering tonight.
The Cavs have been sloppy in losing their last two games. They haven’t protected the basketball and I look for that trend to continue today.
That’s because Charlotte has forced Cleveland to commit 50 turnovers combined in the two previous meetings this season.
The Bobcats are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games and the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these two.
Take the points with Charlotte as they stay within the number tonight on the road.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
20* Big Drive: Seattle +17
ANALYSIS: Recognize the Seattle scheduling situation here, as they returned home from a grinding 7-game road trip covering 12 days and lost to the Timberwolves Friday night. Now they must turn around quickly and hit the road against the high-scoring Nuggets in Denver. Compounding the problem is that Seattle has allowed 110+ ppg in each of their last six contests, and Denver has beaten Seattle three straight times by double-digits, including an embarrassing 138-96 loss February 28th. Few are going to be willing to support the struggling Sonics here, even with a big 17-point head start. Now with 50 losses this season, Seattle is on their way to the franchise record of 59 losses in a season. But that’s why there is a point spread, and why understanding historical situations in handicapping can provide profits in the right situations. Did you know that division underdogs of 8 or more points playing with ‘revenge’ and coming off a SU/ATS loss are better than a 67% play in the NBA? You do now. And if our big ‘Dog is coming off back-to-back losses, we have an even stronger situational subset. There is even a stronger situation setting up on the Sonics as our ‘poor little puppy’ that nobody cares about. Before you feel helpless with the suspect Sonics, know that we used this same situation to cash an OUTRIGHT underdog winner on the Sacramento Kings (+13.5) over the LA Lakes exactly one week ago. ‘Fairway’s Followers’ who bet Sacramento with my advice and insight were feeling like ‘Kings’. If those bettors bet the money line at 10-1, they enjoyed an extra big ‘Nugget’ of cash. Won’t be calling for the outright win here, but getting the ‘green’ is what we’re after and this situation sets up for yet another winner to take our current NBA run to 14-2. ‘Big Drive’ for a Big ‘Dog.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Game: Clemson vs. North Carolina
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 154.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
These teams have played very competitive against each other with both games going to OT. These games saw 196 and 178 points scored, but more importantly 164 and 162 before OT. The Tar Heels are putting up about 90 per game and the Tigers about 80. Both these teams give it up on the other end, with the Heels allowing 72.5 and the Tigers nearly 70. This one should be played in the 80s, and fun to watch, especially if your on the OVER.
Game: Texas Arlington vs. Northwestern State
Pick: 2 units on Northwestern State +165 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 3.3)
The least interesting matchup of the day takes place in the Southwestern Conference Championship game in Katy, Texas. But we are interested. This game features a #5 seed and a #7 seed so anything can happen. The winner gets a bid to the Big Dance so a lot is on the line for these small schools. But it means more to Texas Arlington as this would be their first invititation. Northwestern State if you recall won this tournament last year and actually beat Iowa in the opening round of the NCAAs. UT-Arlington is shooting for a school record 21st win and we think they get it. They are 20-11 on the season while Northwestern State is just 15-17. The offenses are very similar while UTA owns the better defense (68 ppg allowed vs. 79.4 for NWS). We like the dog here to win outright.
Game: Kansas vs. Texas
Pick: 3 units on Texas +5.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
There is a big opportunity here for both these teams. Tennessee and Georgetown lost, so there is no arguement that the winner will be granted a #1 seed in tourney. The Horns proved they can play with Jayhawks, with solid regular season win. They took it right at the Jayhawks, got them in foul trouble, and converted FT's dispite shooting just 40% from the floor. They ruled the glass, and dominated the paint, blocking eight Kansas shots. After a 20-0 start, things haven't been quite so easy for the Jayhawks as they have lost three, and gone just 4-9 ATS. Texas has a chance for the out-right win here, so the points sweeten the value.
Game: Georgia vs. Arkansas
Pick: 2 units on Georgia +300 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 6)
Sometimes teams just defy the odds to win games and win tournaments. Georgia right now is that team. After suffering damage to the Georgia Dome, the Bulldogs were faced with the unheard of task of playing two tournament games in one day yesterday. They disposed of Kentucky and then top-seeded Ole Miss. Why can't they win this one? They are tired? That didn't show in knocking off the #1 seed in their second game yesterday. Yes, we know they only won four SEC games all season, but they have just won three in a row as underdogs of 3.5, 4.5 and 10 points. The Bulldogs have the best defense in this game as Arkansas has allowed 76.8 per game over their last five. Dennis Felton is now 14-5 in conference tournament games and we'll ride him and the magic ride the Bulldogs are on to another win here.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Texas Arlington / Northwestern State
UN 150.0 / 3 units
National Basketball Association
New Orleans Hornets / Detroit Pistons
UN 186.0 / 3 units
Tampa Bay Storm / New Orleans Voodoo
OV 105.5 / 3 units
National Hockey League
Calgary Flames / Chicago Blackhawks
OV 5.5 (100) / 3 units
(-135) / 3 units
Major League Baseball
Minnesota (-120) / 1 units
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Wunderdog NBA Plays
Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Houston
Pick: 5 units on Houston -3.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 197.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Houston has run off an amazing 21 straight wins, and not a single opponent in their last 19 has scored over 100 points. In those most recent 19 games, the Rockets are allowing just 86.4 ppg. The last nine meetings between these teams (not including OT), has seen the highest scoring game posted at 196, with an average of 180.3 ppg. The Lakers are a completely different team when they can't score. They are 43-6 SU when they score 100+, but a pathetic 2-14 SU and 3-13 ATS when they score under 100. The Lakers have yet to score 100 this season against the NBA's top four defensive teams in terms of points allowed. They got 89 at Detroit, 94 at Boston, 92 and 91 at San Antonio and 93 here in Houston. They are without Pau Gasol tonight too which is a major blow. Home teams that have allowed 80 or fewer points in three straight games are 22-4 ATS the past five season. Houston is 20-11 ATS this season vs. winning teams including 9-1 in their last ten. They are also 20-11 UNDER vs. these teams. We like the hot Rockets to win a game that also goes UNDER the total.
Game: Dallas at Miami
Pick: 3 units on Dallas -16 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Dallas hasn't been great on the road this season but Miami has been worse at home. They are 6-27 now at home this season after losing to Orlando on Friday. They have lost five straight at home and are injury-riddled with Marcus Banks out, Udonis Haslem and Earl Barron doubtful and Shawn Marion and Jason Williams probable but not 100%. Dallas is on a roll having won four straight by an average score of 113-90! Big spread but Dallas is clicking on all cylinders right now and Miami is as bad, and beat up, as it gets.
Game: Seattle at Denver
Pick: 3 units on Denver -15.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Yesterday we backed Boston after their embarrassing loss at home to Utah. They responded after underperforming in such a big way in their last game. In this game we'll go with another of our theories - backing teams off a huge OVERperformance. Denver is off a 137-105 thrashing of Toronto. They covered the 8.5 point spread and with 23.5 points to spare. Now they get the lowly Seattle Supersonics and this game will be no contest. The Nuggets are motivated as they remain 1.5 games behind Golden State for the final playoff spot in the West. Earlier this season Denver beat Seattle 138-106 for their highest point total of the season. They have beaten the Sonics, the worst team in the West, by double-digits three straight times. Seattle gives up 106.5 per game on the road and it's getting worse down the stretch. Over their last five games they have allowed 115.4 per game. With Denver averaging nearly that on offense, watch out for the fireworks here. Denver is 24=11 ATS the past three seasons after a blowout win by 15+ points. PJ Carlesimo-coached teams are 2-14 ATS after allowing 120+ in their last game. Yes, huge spread. But we think Denver covers it.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Strike Point Sports Picks For College Basketball
3-Unit Play. Illinois/Wisconsin Over 112
This number is just too low. Don't look at Illinois' win over Minnesota on Saturday, rather the Illini scoring 67 against the Gophers in their regular season finale. They also hit for 64 in the first round win over Penn State and 74 over Purdue. Both match-ups this season betwen Illinois and Wisconsin went over 120, while the Badgers are easily capable for going for over 60. I think both will have over 60 in this one, but just one will be good enough to shoot over the total. Play the over in the Big Ten title game.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
direct line.........................clemson over
big 12 shocker.....................texas
10* total..........................ny over 02
Fat man plays......................wisc
under the hat...................wisc
total.........................denver over 25.5
under the hat.....................pistons
steam......................clems(releasing this one twice)
total.................ny over 02
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