Thursday Service Plays

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Larry Ness

GAME:  Toledo @ Kent State
PICK: Kent State 

REASON FOR PICK: Toledo lost its first 15 road games this year, winning only at Central Michigan this past Sunday (90-83 in OT), on the final day of the MAC's regular season. Swingman Kent (17.0-3.9-3.1), guard Amos (12.4-5.1) and the 6-7 Young (10.3-6.0) all toped 20 points against the Chippewas, combining for 67. Then yesterday, the Rockets beat Bowling Green in Cleveland (52-48), despite shooting just 33.3 percent as a team, including going an abysmal 1-of-17 from behind the three-point arc. Tonight, Toledo takes on the MAC's best team in Kent, which amazingly Toledo beat back on Feb 2 (only meeting TY), 59-56. In that game, the Golden Flashes were just 5-of-16 from the three-point line while the Rockets went 6-of-12. This is not a good spot for Toledo, as Kent State knows that Akron (26-7) was denied an at-large bid LY after not winning the MAC tourney. Despite most experts agreeing that Kent deserves an at-large bid should it fail to win the whole thing here in Cleveland, the Golden Flashes are well aware that the MAC has not received an at-large bid since 1999. When the Golden Flashes lost in Toledo on Feb 2, the team's two senior forwards, the 6-7 Scott (13.0-6.2) and the 6-8 Quaintance (9.9-7.5), combined to score just 10 points. Do NOT expect a repeat performance. Kent guards Fisher (14.3-3.8-4.2) and Singletary (10.2) will match up well vs Kent and Amos on the perimeter and in the end, Kent is just "so much better" than Toledo. Scott and Quaintance went 'dancing' as sophomores and will surely want to cap their careers with a "return trip." Kent (25-6 / 13-3) won't rest on its laurels, knowing that history is not on its side. Expect a blowout!

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Matt Fargo

Marquette @ Notre Dame
PICK: Marquette 

REASON FOR PICK: Marquette split its series with the third-seeded Irish, winning 92-66 in Milwaukee on Jan. 12 and losing 86-83 in South Bend, Ind., on Feb. 9. That home win was impressive as it outshot the Irish 46.6 percent to 39.7 percent including a shooting margin of +28.9 percent from long range. In the second meeting, the Golden Eagles actually outshot Notre Dame again but the difference was free throws as Notre Dame went 24-31 compared to 5-8 for Marquette. The Irish won’t have that same home court edge here.

The Golden Eagles pulled away late last night and come into this one with some good momentum. Marquette overcame a horrid 34.4 percent shooting night by holding Seton Hall to 33.9 percent, and by pulling down a season-high 56 rebounds, including 25 on the offensive end. Notre Dame is one of the best rebounding teams around so the Golden Eagles will need another big effort on the boards. However, in that 26-point home win over the Irish, they were outrebounded by eight so the winner on the glass didn’t matter.

Take Notre Dame out of Notre Dame and it becomes a very average team. The Irish went 18-0 at home but just 6-6 on the road and in neutral court games. The road wins all came against teams that are not going to the Big Dance with the lone exception possibly Villanova if it can make more of a run following its win yesterday against Syracuse. So the fact that Notre Dame beat no one on the road and its closest home win came against Marquette tells us one thing and that is that an early round exit is possible for a fraud.

One number that jumps out is how good Notre Dame is at taking care of the ball as proven by its 1.46 assist/turnover ratio. And another number that jumps out is that this ratio drops to 1.14 in road games while the defense allows a ratio of 1.43. Conversely, Marquette is +0.23 in ratio margin in road games. The Irish are allowing 78.85 ppg in road games this season so any offensive problem Marquette had last night will be turned around here.

I already hinted on the Notre Dame strength on the boards but that is part of a contrarian situation going against the Irish. Play against neutral court teams that shoot 36.5 percent or better from long range and are +6 rpg or better in rebounding margin going up against a team that shoots between 32 and 36.5 percent from long range and +/-3 rpg in rebounding margin. This situation is 39-16 ATS (70.9 percent) over the last five seasons. This line is as low as it is for a reason. Play Marquette Golden Eagles 1 Unit

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

The Prez

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Washington Wizards
PICK: Cleveland Cavaliers

REASON FOR PICK: The uncertainty of tonight's Washington Wizards active roster presents an over-the-top investment opportunity. Forward Caron Butler, who has missed 16 straight games and 19 of the last 21 because of the injury, could be activated for tonight's game against LaBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. The fact that the Wiz have little idea who will play, or for how long, offers a value play on the Cavs when they visit the Capital City for a Thursday night affair. Washington lost All-Star forward Antawn Jamison to a lower back ailment in the final minutes of its 105-97 victory over Milwaukee on Tuesday, and while he is expected to play tonight, he is far from 100 percent. Antonio Daniels (thumb) did not take part in the teams Wednesday practice session and is expected to dress at less than full strength. LeBron James has dominated Washington over the last two years, averaging 30.1 points, 8.2 rebounds and 6.3 assists in his last 15 games against them, and the Cavs have won 12 of those 15 contests. 

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Tony Karpinski

Arizona vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford     

Stanford -2.5 Arizona played their hearts out at home a few games ago against Stanford, and they still couldn’t defeat the Cardinal. Stanford plays too well as a team on both ends of the floor for Arizona to win this game, especially on a neutral court. Arizona will still be missing starting guard, Nick Wise, who was a key to their team. Stanford controlled the last game between these two teams, despite only pulling out a one point win. Look for the Cardinal team to do the same tonight. 

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

John Ryan

Iowa State vs. Texas A&M
Play: Under   

Ai Simulator 3* graded play UNDER Iowa State/Texas A&M - AiS shows a 68% probability that 120 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 88-51 for 63% since 1997. Play under with all teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points that are good shooting teams hitting 45-47.5% and is facing a good defensive team allowing 40-42.5% after 15+ games and is a good ball handling team committing just <=14.5 TOPG and is now facing a poor pressure defense forcing <=14.5 TOPG after 15+ games. Note too that Texas A&M is 7-1 UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. 

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

PRICELESS PICKS

1 Unit on Iowa State +10.5

Iowa State finished the season strong, covering the spread in 3 of its last 4 games.  Texas A&M completely fell apart, losing 5 of 7 SU and ATS.  The Aggies are 13-28 ATS in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games since 1997.  Iowa State is 31-16 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1997.  The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. The Aggies are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a losing SU record.  Take the points as Iowa State gives the Aggies a first round scare.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

AJ Apollo

3* South Carolina +2.5 vs. LSU

3* West Virginia +3 vs. Connecticut

3* Alabama +3.5 vs. Florida

3* Georgia +4.5 vs. Mississippi

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Karl Garrett

30 DIMER - LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

Unimpressed with the way Pittsburgh got by a Cincinnati team I felt they should have rolled. That being the case, I am backing the rested Cardinals as the Panthers bring a 2-6 spread mark their last 8 games into this quarterfinal showdown.

Louisville lost a tough one to close the season on Saturday at Georgetown, but I loved the way they battled in that game, and the fact remains Coach Pitino's troups have covered 9 of their last 10 games, and are on a money-yielding 24-6-2 spread run in Big East play their last 32 games.

The Cardinals have won 2 of the last 3 series meetings, including the lone meeting at Pittsburgh this season 75-73 as the 2-point dog.

Louisville minus the points the play in this one.

30 DIMER - VIRGINIA CAVALIERS

The Yellow Jackets have shown some signs of life of late, as G-Tech has won and covered their last pair of games, and 3 of their last 4 overall. Their lone loss in that span came against these Cavs, who I like tonight to once again prevail.

Virginia is playing inspired hoops, as Dave Leitao's team has won 4 of their final 6, and have covered in 6 of their last 7.

Sean Singletary is thee best player on the floor tonight, and the Wahoos have won 2 of the last 3 series showdows both straight up, and against the spread.

In a near pick'em spot, the G-Man gets the feeling the Cavaliers are advancing.

30 DIMER - NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS

I would not want to have to play the Cornhuskers right now, as they are most definitely feeling like a win or two in this Big 12 tourney will be enough to get them into the Big Dance next week.

Nebraska had a 4-game win and cover streak in this series snapped in a home overtime loss to Missouri in the middle of February, but that was a rare road cover for the Tigers who are just 3-11 against the spread on the road this season.

Mizzou enters having lost 6 of their last 9 straight up, and 6 in a row against the spread, while Nebraska has won 4 of their last 6 straight up, and have covered in 5 of their last 6.

Nebraska moves on!

10 DIMER - LA SALLE EXPLORERS

Quick turnaround for La Salle and Temple, as these teams met at La Salle on Saturday in the season finale, and the Explorers were beaten like a drum.

Temple is rolling hot right now, of that there is no doubt, but La Salle's gritty win last night against Duquesne showed me that the Explorers are not going to quit in this game.

La Salle jumped ball at 6:30pm yesterday, and the same tip time tonight should prove beneficial for La Salle.

These Philly schools have split their last 4 meetings, and the underdog is on an 8-3 spread run the last 11 in this rivalry.

Take the points as La Salle gives the Owls all they can handle after Saturday's clunker.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Powerplaywins

Power Play of the Day

Florida Gators -3

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Gavozzi

5*UMass
5*Washington St
3*Louisville
3*Mizz
3*Fresno St
3*SDST
3*Utah U

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Seabass

20 G Tech
20 Florida
50 Minnesota
20 BYU
50 UNLV

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

KELSO 50 UNIT SEC GOY

50* Florida

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Dr Bob

Massachusetts (-3 ½) over Charlotte, 2-Stars at -4 or less, 3-Stars at -3 or less.

Washington State (-3 ½) over Oregon, 3-Stars at -3 1/2 or less, 2-Stars at -4.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

GOLD SHEET'S LATE TELEPHONE SERVICE

NBA: PORTLAND +3½ over Sacramento -Home 7:05 PM

Colleges: VIRGINIA Pick over Georgia Tech 4:00 PM

NEBRASKA -2 over Missouri 4:00 PM

FLORIDA -3½ over Alabama 4:30 PM

MISSISSIPPI -4½ over Georgia 6:45 PM

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Sports Bank 500* False Favorite Game Of Year

Arizona

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